- 16 hours ago
Paul Toboni joins The Junkies to look at the first half of the Nats' season, and their two All-Stars, as we approach the break!
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00:00Hey, Paul. How are you, buddy?
00:02What's going on, fellas? How are you guys?
00:04Did you get pumped for All-Star Week and that sort of thing?
00:08Yeah. Well, it's funny. It'll be different this year.
00:11The past few years, the draft has taken place over the break,
00:15but this year it's Saturday, Sunday.
00:18So, more so excited for that, but then, yeah,
00:21excited to get a little bit of a blow before we head out to Sacramento and play the A's.
00:25The way you manage all your guys, your scouts and everything,
00:30how locked in are you on, like, how many rounds are you deep,
00:35your knowledge versus, like, your guys and just relying on them?
00:39You know, I'm sure there comes a point where you're just like,
00:41okay, guys, you guys are out there. You're my regional guys.
00:44You know, and you're relying on them with a lot of these selections.
00:49How deep is your knowledge, for like, for example, for this class?
00:53Yeah. It's the most removed I've been from it over the course of my career.
00:59That's weird, right?
01:00It's not going to be all that surprising. I'm sorry?
01:01That's weird, though, isn't it? It's got to feel weird.
01:04Yeah, it feels really weird.
01:06Like, you know, obviously I spent, whatever it was,
01:11three years as a scouting director in Boston,
01:13and then I was really involved in it for those three years following
01:16when Devin Pearson was the scouting director there.
01:19And, you know, it's one of the parts of the game I enjoy most,
01:23just diving into these guys and really learning about them,
01:26so on and so forth.
01:27But it is good.
01:29You know, I really trust the group that we have running point here.
01:33And because of that, it makes it easy to kind of just hand it over to them
01:36and, you know, keep tabs on the guys.
01:41And to answer your question, like, I'm pretty locked in on the first round.
01:46And in the second round, once it gets past the second round,
01:49you know, I'm really leaning on our folks in the room.
01:53Can you give us – I remember when, what was it, Moneyball came out,
01:59and, you know, obviously there was like, oh, yeah, it's like on-base percentage.
02:02It walks.
02:03Like, these are these key things.
02:04So being the scouting director, I'm not asking you for your trade secrets,
02:08but, like, are there certain traits that you're looking for in pitchers?
02:12Like, is it really important for you to get power pitchers,
02:14or is it really important that you – the guy comes from a great program,
02:17or is it, you know, you're getting high school guys at this position?
02:21Are there certain sort of things that you just love,
02:24like certain kind of traits that maybe you can give us one?
02:29Yeah.
02:30Well, I guess just at a really high level,
02:32and I don't think this is like a trade seeker or anything.
02:34I think most of the industry is this way.
02:36But, you know, typically most teams are going to favor, like, up-the-middle athletes.
02:43So whether it's, you know, you're playing short, center field, even second catcher,
02:49those positions are just – I mean, they're tougher to fill.
02:53You know what I mean?
02:53And so if you have the athleticism to be able to play shortstop, like,
02:58typically even if shortstop doesn't work out, like,
03:00you can make a pretty good second baseman, third baseman, even pop into the outfield,
03:05and so on and so forth.
03:06But, you know, it's all a sliding scale with how much you can hit
03:10and the offensive value you can provide.
03:12So, you know, if we have a corner outfielder that we really believe in,
03:17you know, that's obviously going to really matter, right?
03:19So we're not passing up on Kyle Tucker to take a shortstop that's, you know,
03:25not going to really be able to hit.
03:27So I think just at a high level, that's what we think about.
03:30But we also try to not get too cute with it.
03:33I almost liken it to the NFL draft, right?
03:36I'm sure you guys are more locked in on it than I am,
03:39but just because, like, you know, running backs typically don't go in the top 10 picks,
03:46right, probably doesn't mean that you're passing up on Christian McCaffrey
03:49or whoever else.
03:50I love, for example.
03:51Paul, what percent, based on your history and your experience,
03:54what percentage of first-round picks, you know, per team do you think become...
04:00Reach the big leagues?
04:01Well, become starters in, let's just say, less than three years
04:05or maybe less than four years.
04:07What percentage do you think that is?
04:09Yeah, so become starters in less than four years.
04:13Honestly, in baseball, like, I think you've got to split it
04:16between the college and the high school demographics.
04:20Right, right.
04:20For high school kids, like, it's pretty rare, right?
04:22Like, what we're seeing with, you know, Kevin McGonigal and Connor Griffin
04:26and these kids around the league that are starting at 20 years old in big leagues,
04:32like, that's really rare.
04:33Right.
04:34Yeah, so it's rare for the high school kids.
04:37For the college kids, and I think part of this, too,
04:39is college programs have gotten better at developing.
04:42I think, honestly, pro organizations just have a much clearer understanding
04:46of what players need to do to have success at the big league level.
04:50So, development tracks can be accelerated a little bit.
04:54But, you know, I don't know the exact number.
04:57My guess is it's somewhere probably between 30% and 50%, which is crazy, right?
05:02Yeah.
05:02Like, the odds aren't great.
05:05And so, you know, I think fan bases, you know, deservingly so,
05:10they look back on picks and say, like, man, like, how do you whiff on your first-round pick?
05:14And then you look at, like, the baseline outcomes and they're not that awesome.
05:18You know what I mean?
05:18So, that said, we're really confident in our process
05:23and we're excited about the player that we're going to get this year.
05:27Well, you should be excited about a player that you have.
05:30And his nickname is Woody, by the way.
05:34We found that out.
05:35You know, let's just start with the positive, even though, you know, lost 6-3 last night.
05:40But he hit his eighth leadoff home run.
05:42He's hitting 270.
05:44He's leading the league in runs scored by 100.
05:48He's got 25 bombs.
05:50He's going to way surpass his numbers from last year where he hit 31 and drove in 94.
05:56On-base percentage is 400.
05:58I mean, he's just putting up, he's putting up, Paul, he's putting up MVP numbers.
06:02If you guys were, you know, leading the division or two back of the Braves or something like that,
06:06he'd be talked about as a possible MVP.
06:09His war is 3.6.
06:10Yeah, he's just unbelievable.
06:11So, just talk about what you've noticed, especially in the last three or four weeks,
06:15because he's been scorching hot.
06:17Yeah, he's, I mean, he's been so awesome.
06:20Not just last night with that leadoff homer, but the night before.
06:22He won us that game with that grand slam he hit.
06:25Didn't seem like a big moment or a huge moment at the time, but ended up winning us the game.
06:30So, feels like every night he's doing something.
06:33And, you know, we were chatting with him yesterday.
06:35I think two things really stick out to me.
06:37Like, one, although he's only 23 years old, he's got this maturity about him that even if he goes
06:43three, four, five games where he struggles, like, it doesn't turn into 15, 20, 25 games.
06:48You know, he stays really, really composed.
06:51Seems like the most chill guy I've ever seen.
06:53Yeah.
06:54Yeah.
06:55Like, you know, I say this in a really positive way, but I was talking to one of our guys
07:00on
07:00staff the other day, and he was talking about how, you know, a little while back, he was
07:040 for 3 with 3Ks in a game.
07:06And he went out to warm him up in right field in between innings.
07:10And Woody's, like, throwing, like, cutters and change-ups to him.
07:13You know, it's like, not that he doesn't care that he's 0 for 3 or 3Ks, but he's just,
07:17like, he's got the maturity to be able to understand as part of the game, it's going
07:22to happen at some point, and I'm not going to let it, you know, get me down in the dump.
07:26So that's one thing.
07:28And one other thing that I wish the public could see up close is just he's 23 years old,
07:33but he carries himself like he's a veteran in how he talks through game planning, opposing
07:39pitchers, how he rubs off on his teammates and what he's looking for.
07:44He's just, like, a really, really advanced baseball mind.
07:48And, you know, I think if you're not in on some of those conversations, that's tough
07:52to see.
07:53You just see him hitting homers and, you know, roaming around the outfield, so on and
07:58so forth, taking his walks.
07:59But there's, like, a real reason behind it as to why it's happening.
08:03Can you give us an example?
08:07Give you an example.
08:09Well, I mean, not to get, like, too into the weeds, but, you know, bottom line is for
08:16a lot of these pitchers, right, like, big league pitchers, it's really tough to cover
08:21four different types of pitches in four different locations, right?
08:25And Woody, you know, Woody has a really good understanding of, like, okay, if I'm going
08:30to have success against this guy, this is the zone that I'm going to have to force him
08:34into, and we call it lanes, like, this is the lane where I'm going to have to see it
08:38out of hand, right?
08:39So if something's starting, like, low and in, you know, I'm just going to take it out
08:43of hand.
08:44But if I get something that starts out on the outer lane and has a chance to come back
08:49to me in the middle of the plate, like, that's where I'm going to be firing.
08:52I'm not talking through it with great detail, but you get the point.
08:55Like, there's just, like, a real strategy behind the pitch types he's looking for, the lanes
09:00that these pitches start in, and I think that allows him to not just damage balls in
09:05the middle of the zone, but take his walks, because a lot of those takes are takes out
09:10of hand, and he's not forced to make the decision when the ball's 15 feet from home plate.
09:15Yeah, he's got 74 walks, so he, of course, makes the all-star team.
09:19C.J. Abrams is going to start.
09:20Did you guys feel like there were any snubs?
09:22Did you think there was anybody that should have made the all-star team?
09:26Yeah.
09:27Garcia.
09:28Yeah, Louie, I think part of what hurt Louie, or has hurt Louie to this point, is he just
09:34came on so hot over the course of the last three weeks, you know what I mean?
09:38I think if he would have had those three weeks at the start of the year, he might have had
09:42more momentum going into the fan vote and all that.
09:48Foster's been awesome.
09:50Cade has obviously been awesome.
09:52So, I feel like we have a few guys that could have been all-stars.
09:55And then, I know I said it to you guys a couple weeks back, but Woody should be starting in
09:59my mind, and that kind of, that bummed me out that, you know, there's an MVP candidate
10:03that isn't starting the game, but I get it.
10:06It's all part of it.
10:07When you talk about Louie, he's got 19 home runs right now, which I think is a career high,
10:13or he's right about it, is a career high.
10:16Did you project this type of season for him?
10:18When you moved him to first base, did you think this can be a guy who's going to hit
10:2030 home runs?
10:23You know, I've been asked that question on a few different guys, and kind of what I always
10:29go back to is, like, thought it was a possibility, but it's really tough to say, like, hey, this
10:33is going to happen with a high degree of confidence until you really get around them and really
10:37start working with them and understanding how, you know, what their approaches were last year
10:42relative to this year, so on and so forth.
10:44I think the big thing with Louie is he's, one, he's younger than I think people realize
10:50just because he broke into the big leagues at such a young age.
10:54You see that he's been around for six years or whatever it's been, and you're like, gosh,
10:59okay, this guy's like a veteran guy, and then you look, and he's like 25, 26, you know
11:03what I mean?
11:03So he's still, I think, developing, and the game changer for him has been, he's just, I
11:10mean, he's tapped into an amount of power this year that he hasn't had in the past,
11:14and that's allowed him to really go.
11:17So, you know, obviously we don't want to put expectations on him, but he's got a chance
11:20to hit 35 this year, you know what I mean?
11:22And I think if you would have told anyone that before the season, folks would have been
11:27really, really happy about it.
11:28Yeah, his career high was 18 before, he's at 19 now, and he did that in 2024 in 140 games.
11:34So, yeah.
11:35Paul, I mean, it kind of hurt last night because the teams all in the wildcard chase all won
11:40and we lost, but what do you think, you know, we're, you know, the trade deadline's August
11:453rd, right?
11:45So, I know we ask you this every week and we have you on, and you can only give us
11:50so
11:50much, but what do you think needs to be addressed for the rest of this month?
11:55Yeah, well, I think for starters, like we just got to take care of our business, and I know
12:00that's like the cliche line from folks in my position or in Blake's position, but it's
12:04the truth.
12:05Like, if we just go out and play well and win games, hopefully we can put ourselves in
12:11a position where we're in a wildcard spot or not far out.
12:17But, man, like, honestly, I think our needs haven't really changed over the course of the
12:21past month, right?
12:23We've made some moves and things have changed a little bit, but we've still got to pitch
12:27better, specifically in the pen.
12:30We're continuing to hit.
12:31We're continuing to run the bases really well for the most part and defend as well.
12:37So, if we can just, you know, keep some of these teams to, you know, call it four runs
12:43on any given night, I think we give ourselves a really good chance to win.
12:47So, that's a little bit about going forward.
12:49Are you getting more calls from other GMs who know that the Nationals need bullpen help?
12:56You know what's funny is, I think it, like, five years ago, I think I would be, but now
13:02with the draft where it is, I think most other teams are like, let's get through the draft
13:07and then we'll turn the page really quickly.
13:10I've received a few calls, but they're more so just check-ins, like, hey, you know, what
13:15are you guys thinking at this point?
13:16And, you know, it's more so just my buddies around the industry that are in the position
13:23that I'm in checking in because the bottom line is, like, everyone kind of feels the
13:27same right now.
13:28Like, unless you are, you know, 20 games above 500, you have to see how these next, whatever
13:34it is, 20, 25 days play out in order to figure out what you're really doing.
13:39And so, it's more so just like, hey, you know, what are you guys thinking, but not really
13:42getting into a crazy amount of specificity.
13:46That makes sense, but also it doesn't, Paul, because as a fan, right, just a dumb fan, I'm
13:52just looking at it going, well, we might look a lot different in 20 games if we did something
13:56now.
13:57Yeah.
13:58You don't know what I mean?
13:59Like, it could go two different ways.
14:02Yeah, no, so it's a really good point.
14:06The issue is that teams aren't willing to give up for the most part.
14:12They're not willing to trade right now.
14:13And the reason is, it's pretty simple.
14:17Like, man, if, yeah, I could trade with you, but then there's just one player in the market
14:21right now where, you know, if I am going to trade this player and I'm going to do it
14:25on August 1st or August 2nd, I'm probably going to have, you know, whatever, 20 teams in
14:29the market for the player.
14:30And you know what happens when you have, you know, 20 teams competing for a player
14:33versus just competing against yourself.
14:35So what they'll say is like, yeah, you can, you can trade for them now, but you're probably
14:40going to be paying 2X, 3X.
14:42I hear that.
14:43Yeah.
14:43But Paul, are there guys though that, I mean, it doesn't have to be, don't take this the
14:48wrong way.
14:49I feel like we could get some marginal guys that would help.
14:52I'm not saying we have to go and get all-stars, right?
14:54I'm not saying we have to get guy game changers.
14:55I feel like there are probably guys on the fringes that might be better that have proven
15:00they've done this over time.
15:01I'm not saying that in an assaulting way.
15:02He's probably been talking to teams and they're just not willing to give them up yet.
15:06Even those guys, even like sort of like marginal guys.
15:08I would think that teams, bad teams would be willing to give up guys now, but I mean,
15:13I could be wrong, Paul.
15:14Yeah.
15:14No, no, no.
15:15The points you guys are bringing up like exactly along the lines of what we think, and it's
15:22definitely not offending me or us when you bring it up.
15:25Good.
15:26The bottom line is what I just said even remains true for those guys, right?
15:33And I know that's like a, it's a weird thing to think about, but their teams are sitting
15:37there like in, in even the quote unquote marginal guys, right?
15:40The return that a marginal guy typically demands, they're going to be demanding 3X that, you
15:46know what I'm saying?
15:47And so we still have those conversations and we're, we're going to continue to have them.
15:55But I, once again, I think it's just the nature of the schedule that MLB has put together.
16:00I think things will start to heat up, you know, when the, when the draft ends.
16:05Yeah.
16:05So towards the end of July, I don't know if I'm sure you paid attention to some of the
16:09box scores last night, Paul, but there were some crazy things last night.
16:12First of all, Ryan O'Hearn hit three bombs, drove in 10.
16:15And what's funny about that game is that's the first time the Pirates won a Paul Skeen's
16:21start since May 12th.
16:22They had lost nine straight Paul Skeen starts until last night, which kind of blows me away.
16:28He just hasn't been the same pitcher, but that was kind of crazy.
16:31The Yankees struck out 17 times for back-to-back games, Paul.
16:34They had 34 strikeouts in the last two games.
16:38And then the other thing was kind of crazy was the bottom of the order, the bottom guy
16:42in the order of the Royals last night, Tyson Tolbert is a right fielder, young right fielder.
16:48He had 12 consecutive hits.
16:50I think he either set or tied a Royals record.
16:53I'm sorry, MLB record with 12 consecutive hits.
16:56I mean, there were some crazy things last night in baseball.
16:58Yeah, that's awesome.
17:00It's funny, I don't know if you guys have the MLB app, but I typically, they have that
17:04like recap where it's like 45 minutes of highlights and I try and watch it every morning.
17:10I haven't gotten to it yet.
17:10One of my kids likes to watch it every morning, so he was watching it this morning.
17:14But I got to lock in.
17:16Those few things I did here just post-game last night.
17:20But yeah, I think it's a fun time in baseball.
17:24Like, there are a ton of fun, young players in the league that are playing great.
17:30And I think it's just a cool time to be a fan.
17:33Where was Mizorowski drafted?
17:35He was drafted in the second.
17:37It's actually a pretty unique story.
17:40He was at a Crowder Community College in the Midwest.
17:44And, you know, he was just really, really young and limbs going everywhere and like electric
17:53arm.
17:53Didn't really know where it was going.
17:56One of those things that like, yeah, scouts would walk in there and say like, this guy,
18:00I've never seen a guy like this.
18:02But then you'd look and you'd be like.
18:04He's throwing it all.
18:05He don't know where he's going to throw it.
18:06Yeah.
18:06Yeah.
18:07He's like having a tough time getting it in the zone against junior college hitters.
18:11Like Charlie Sheen's character in, what was it?
18:13Major League?
18:15Major League, yeah.
18:16Yeah.
18:16He's just missing the haircut.
18:18Yeah.
18:18But I mean, his numbers are just crazy.
18:21I mean, he struck out 11.
18:22He's got 165.
18:23His whip is 0.7.
18:27Yeah, he's just throwing crazy numbers.
18:28All right.
18:28So today, last game against the Astros.
18:32Foster's going, who's been incredible.
18:34You think he should be an all-star?
18:359-2.
18:362-8-7.
18:37Yeah, I mean, that's kind of a joke.
18:38He's not an all-star.
18:39Yeah.
18:39And he's going against Spencer Arregetti, who is one of the better pitchers for Houston.
18:45So talk about today's matchup.
18:47Yeah.
18:48You know, Foster is Foster.
18:50This will be a good challenge for him today because of, you know, my guess is they roll
18:55out a similar lineup as last night where Jordan Alvarez is their only left-handed hitter.
19:00So I think they'll just stack the lineup with righties.
19:03But Foster's pretty dang good.
19:06So, and we obviously believe in him.
19:08So we like our chances.
19:09I will say that Eric Getty, Spencer Erregetti is a good pitcher.
19:14And he's, you know, he's interesting in that he's probably 6'1".
19:18You guys will see it.
19:19But he releases the ball like seven and a half feet down the mound.
19:23So he's got some of the most extension, the highest extension in the league.
19:27And even though the fastball sits only like, you know, 92, it plays like it's probably 95.
19:34So it'll be a good challenge for us.
19:36But like I always say, you know, with you guys, like this, this lineup's really fun.
19:43And there's really never a matchup where we're like, gosh, you know, this one's going to be
19:48really tough on us.
19:49Like we think we can bang with anyone, which is a fun spot to be.
19:55All right, Paul, good stuff.
19:56It's Paul Tabone, president of Baseball Operations for the Washington Nationals.
20:00Good luck in the draft this weekend.
20:02We'll talk to you next week.
20:03Sounds good.
20:04Thanks, guys.
20:04Paul Tabone joins us every Wednesday at 9 o'clock.
20:07We're the Junkies.
20:08Be right back.
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