00:00Yes, Paul. I think the key theme right now for most traders are just looking for a chance to
00:05reset shorts in the bear market. Most people are looking around 80. That was last year's highs,
00:09good levels. We're at 70 now. It's basically the apex of the bell curve of trading for 20 years.
00:15And just a question of what might stop it from a normal rotation back towards the lower in the
00:19range for the last 20 years. You know, my view is I still think it's going to do that. The
00:23key
00:23theme for that to potential happen is obviously a little more detente in the Middle East,
00:27but a little pressure in the stock market will do that. So right now the market's looking up at
00:31maybe it's 200 day movement. I average around 74, 75. That's 70. Now it's a bear market that's reset.
00:39And I just know what's going to, I don't know what's going to make it go high or something
00:42shocking, but normal normalization, making it go lower. And that's basically what Mr. Trump needs
00:47for the midterm elections. Why is it continuing to go lower? Because the Strait of Hormuz is still
00:53blocked off. And the conflict has gone on, I think, a lot longer than anybody thought it would,
00:58or than most people thought it would. So why has oil not crept back up?
01:05This whole rally re-accentuated the most powerful force in commodities that's only growing,
01:12that's price elasticity, particularly in crude oil. Now we got that from Russians' invasions in
01:17Ukraine that really kicked in technology, replacing crude oil, and actually pressuring both prices,
01:22both side for prices of supply and demand. And now it's kicking in now. I'm just updating an outlook
01:27for crude oil for Q3. And we see the surplus of U.S. and Canadian crude oil and liquid fuels
01:33approaching 9 million barrels a day. Just a few years ago, that was basically flat. That's for
01:39next year. So there's only one force that's going to stop that, and that's lower prices. So what this
01:43did is just shifted the people reiterating the price maker status has shifted from OPEC to the
01:50Western Hemisphere ingest. And it's not just crude oil. We've had a pretty good peak this year in
01:54corns, and potentially, and soybeans, and gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and iron ore.
02:00You see that trend there? The pump-then-dump trend is starting to trickle down. That's why I'm really
02:04worried about the stock market going down, because it's feeling, to me, very much like 2008.
02:09You know, when I think about the farmer, you know, I think you've taught us kind of what to focus
02:13on,
02:13corn, soybeans, all that kind of stuff. Soybeans are up 15% year-to-date. That's good for the farmer,
02:20right? It's great. It's just what they needed. It's hopium that the Chinese will come and buy
02:26more soybeans. They probably will. But it's not economic for them. So maybe state-run enterprises
02:31will do it for political reasons, because U.S. soybeans right now are a little bit more expensive
02:35there in Brazil. Remember, Brazil just had a big harvest. And we have more we planted this year,
02:40and the rain has been ample. So I'm really worried what soybeans have been doing for the last few
02:45years is they go down back low 10 or so. Right now they're around 12 as we head towards the
02:50peak of
02:50the harvest in September and on potential October. And same with corn. That December contract pumped
02:56up to near five just a couple months ago, and they got to a new contract low. It's bumping up
03:00again.
03:00And if the cycle's normal, we don't get a bad weather in summer, which we're already getting plenty
03:05of rain. Cycles are probably going to go lower. And particularly, it's all the same trade now with
03:09crude oil going lower. And 30 seconds left for our steak lovers out there. I see
03:13cattle kind of flat for the year, up just a couple of percent. Have we seen peak cattle prices?
03:19We might have. I think it's the typical high-price cure kicking in. Now, we've had problems with
03:24inventories for a while and certain diseases and things. But it is peak driving season,
03:29peak consumption season, peak barbecue season.
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