00:00We've mostly been hearing the idea that this is a war of expansion, that this is something like a new
00:08Hitler or a new Stalin or a new Tsar who is seeking to expand or re-expand into Soviet territory
00:17or new territory or into the area that the Tsars previously controlled.
00:24Or maybe not even to expand, but to kind of dominate the neighbors in a very harsh way, much harsher
00:31than just a sphere of influence.
00:33Some people use the term a Tsarist imperium.
00:37This is the idea that we've all been told, and this idea originated to a good extent out of Washington
00:43and has been propagated through the media of Washington.
00:48It's also originated out of NATO and been propagated to the media in Europe as well.
00:53And I believe that's a false narrative.
00:57Perhaps some of the people who put it forward actually believe it, but I believe it's an incorrect narrative.
01:02And I believe the proper way to understand what has happened is that Russia responded increasingly, not in a constant
01:12line, but sometimes up, sometimes down, but always moving to a greater level of concern about NATO expansion towards and
01:21then to its borders.
01:22The simple place to start would be with statements from George Kennan.
01:26George Kennan was previously an important ambassador to the Soviet Union during the 40s and perhaps early 50s as well.
01:35He's the one who devised the American policy of containment towards the Soviet Union.
01:41And he made very clear statements in the New York Times that this would be a horrible decision, and he
01:48thinks that NATO expansion might be one of the worst decisions or the worst decision made in the entire post
01:55-Cold War era.
01:56Again, in 1997, before the first tranche or movement of expansion occurred, which occurred in 1999, these 50 eminent individuals,
02:09many of them hawks, stated,
02:10In Russia, NATO expansion, which continues to be opposed across the entire political spectrum, will strengthen the non-democratic opposition,
02:23undercut those who favor reform and cooperation with the West, bring Russians to question the entire post-Cold War settlement,
02:34and galvanize resistance in the Duma to the START II and III treaties.
02:39Mr. Ablo, I just wonder whether you would regard the military offensive of Russian forces, which began on February the
02:5124th, 2022, as something which should be regarded as justifiable and foreseeable somehow.
03:04I think that's two different things, whether something is justifiable and whether it's foreseeable.
03:10I think this was not only foreseeable, I think this was predictable, I think it was predicted, and it was
03:17preventable.
03:19All of those things are true.
03:21Now, I would not say that it was justifiable.
03:23I cannot justify any war in which large numbers of innocent individuals are killed.
03:29But what I can see is that the United States and NATO took actions that effectively brought this about.
03:38I do not know.
03:39I do know this, that there is increasing recognition in Washington, not in Ukraine apparently yet, that it seems almost
03:50impossible that the West will thoroughly eject Russia from Ukraine.
03:56It will not happen, and that if there by odd chance is great success in movement of ejecting Ukraine, ejecting
04:06Russia, for instance, from Crimea, I think there is a high chance that Russia might resort to the use of
04:12battlefield nuclear weapons.
04:14Now, of course, that could lead to escalation, an uncontrollable escalation, leading to the death of tens and hundreds of
04:21millions of people.
Comments