00:00Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University in London.
00:03Tim, welcome back. Is this a dead cert then? Will Andy Burnham be the UK's next Prime Minister?
00:09I think it's difficult to see anyone else taking the job other than Burnham.
00:13I think the big question now is what will Keir Starmer do?
00:17He's obviously promised people that he will stand in a leadership contest.
00:21I have my doubts, however. I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the weekend
00:25family and friends and some of his political allies might be telling him
00:30that to do so would be to risk humiliation and it would be better, in fact,
00:34to organise some kind of peaceful transition, if you like, to an Andy Burnham premiership.
00:40Would this just be a change of face in government
00:45or would the UK government's policies substantially change
00:49on things like welfare, defence and foreign affairs?
00:54That is the $64,000 question.
00:57I doubt very much that we will see much change from Burnham
01:01if he becomes Prime Minister in terms of foreign affairs.
01:05That is, I think, fairly settled.
01:07We do need to move closer to the European Union,
01:10but Burnham has ruled out any attempt to rejoin in the short term.
01:14He will obviously have to try and maintain the so-called special relationship
01:19with the US as well.
01:22In defence, the government is currently facing something of a crisis
01:27in the sense that the defence establishment thinks more money needs to be spent in that area.
01:33The government hasn't come up with sufficient funds.
01:36Again, because Andy Burnham has suggested he's not going to be raising taxation,
01:40it's difficult to see him moving on that front either.
01:44I mean, overall, I think it's true to say that Burnham is probably slightly to the left of Keir Starmer,
01:51so one would expect him perhaps to want, in the long term anyway,
01:57to spend more and to find ways of raising revenue in order to do that.
02:01But he's been pretty canny and, frankly, pretty vague
02:05about what exactly he wants to do when he becomes Prime Minister,
02:08which, of course, does worry some people in the Labour Party,
02:11that it will simply be an attempt to communicate the same kind of policies,
02:15just better than Keir Starmer has been able to do.
02:18Well, if that's the case, if not much is going to change,
02:21what's the point of dumping Starmer?
02:24Well, that, I think, is a question that many in the Labour Party are asking.
02:30But it has to be said that politics in the UK, albeit in a parliamentary system,
02:35is rather more presidential now, in the sense that I think leaders do matter a lot more to voters.
02:42And Keir Starmer has been so bad at selling any kind of vision for the UK.
02:48And, to be honest, his management skills have been found wanting as well.
02:53Andy Burnham offers the opportunity of a better communicator
02:58and someone who, generally speaking in Manchester,
03:01is well known for bringing all sorts of different interests together
03:04in order to get things done.
03:06So, whatever, it's likely that I think Burnham will be an improvement on Starmer,
03:11even if the policies don't change, perhaps, before the election anyway,
03:14as much as some people would like.
03:16OK, well, that's the centre-left.
03:17Let's talk about the right-wing party reform,
03:20previously flying high in UK local elections, anyway.
03:24I mean, that's been pretty much brought down to earth in the last 24 hours.
03:28The UK obviously deciding it's not going to turn right.
03:33Well, there is a lot in the media about how well reform have been doing
03:38in the past few months, the last year or so.
03:41But even at its height, reform's only getting around 30% of the vote.
03:46That means around 70% of people in the UK
03:49don't want Nigel Farage anywhere near number 10.
03:53And when it comes to these by-elections,
03:55we have seen, if you like, that 70% consolidate
03:58around any candidate who is capable of beating whoever reform put up.
04:04We saw that in an election in Wales.
04:07We saw that in an election recently in Manchester.
04:09And we've seen it again now in Makerfield.
04:12So I think reform does need to worry, actually.
04:14There does seem to be a willingness on the part of the anti-Farage,
04:18anti-reform majority to vote tactically in order to prevent reform winning a seat.
04:25Tim, good to see you.
04:26Thank you for that.
04:27Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University in London.
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