The housing market trends that will shape the rest of 2026

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Rachel Bader, vice president of audience and growth, about the housing market trends from the first half of 2026 that will shape the rest of the year.  Related to this episode:  Five lessons from the first half of the 2026 housing market https://www.housingwire.com/articles/2026-housing-market-first-half-review/  HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire https://lnk.bio/housingwire  Want more from Sarah? Don’t forget to subscribe! https://www.housingwire.com/subscribe/  The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:07Welcome, everyone. My guest today is Rachel Bader, Vice President of Audience and Growth

00:12to talk about housing market trends from the first half of 2026 that will be shaping the

00:17rest of this year. We've got lots of market-specific data to talk about, so let's dive in. Rachel,

00:23welcome back to the podcast. Thank you so much. I'm so happy to be here.

00:27I'm always happy to talk to you. You are somebody who digs into our data and can give us some

00:33really

00:33great insights about what's going on, so I wanted to talk to you about, we're at the halfway point

00:37now. Let's talk about the first half of 2026 and what housing did, maybe some of the things that

00:43we saw trending-wise that surprised us. Let's start from big picture. When you look at the

00:49first half of 2026, what does housing look like? Yeah, so it's been interesting, right? I think

00:56that everybody kind of wondered what this year was going to bring, and now we're halfway through,

01:02and you and I were talking about this podcast, and should we do a look back and see kind of

01:08what's

01:09happening and what the trends are? And as I was revisiting the data and pulling new, fresh housing

01:19wire data for this podcast, what surprised me is like, even though I've spent almost every day

01:28looking at data this year, which is new for me since I've joined Housing Wire, but when I kind of

01:38look

01:38back, it ended up leaving me asking more questions than really like compiling answers. And honestly,

01:47that caught me off guard a little bit because I've been writing these weekly articles and doing

01:52data digest, and I feel like I'm in it. And so then to kind of do this look back and

01:57be like,

01:58wait a minute, what about these things? And so honestly, it was kind of like, you know when you're

02:05just watching a show and you've watched enough episodes that they're following that same kind

02:10of formula, and you're like, I totally know what's coming next. And then something like completely

02:15different happens, and you're like, dang, I'm kind of crabby that I didn't see that coming.

02:21I feel like that's kind of how it's been watching the housing market for the last six months and

02:28looking ahead to where we're going. But I just, I feel like overall, when we look at 2026 first half,

02:40it was really, the story wasn't like demand collapsed, because it didn't. And the story

02:47wasn't like inventory surge, because it definitely didn't do that. And then it wasn't even like,

02:52like, here are how all the regions are changing. Because we know for a fact that that they all have

02:59been behaving so differently. And so kind of when you look at all of those things, I think that

03:06probably my my biggest takeaway was, like, the market was much more resilient. And I think we we

03:15know, it's, it's cyclical. And, and this has felt more structural to me than cyclical. And I think

03:26that that's probably why why some of the things haven't played out maybe the way we thought.

03:29I think what's really encouraging about that, if you're in the business, right, is that the demand

03:33has been strong, considering, especially considering, I mean, there, there are quite a few things that we

03:39could think of as headwinds, you know, inflations that people are having to deal with higher

03:45gas prices and food prices and things like that. You know, on a macroeconomic scale,

03:50on the global scale, crazy stuff's happened. And yet what we see is like, people still want to buy

03:54houses and about the same number of people want to buy houses as, you know, it's been pretty consistent

03:59over the last couple of years. And all of these other things have not dented that.

04:04Yeah, I agree. And, and that's been so interesting. You know, I spent a lot of time in in local

04:10and

04:10regional data. And just just looking at how everybody is under the same mortgage rates,

04:20right, as as a national market, and everybody is experiencing the same, same economic

04:28situations that are affecting us on like a big scale. But all of those regions are reacting so

04:35differently to that and performing so differently to that in the housing market that it's been really

04:41interesting to watch. That is okay. Well, let's, let's dive into some of those regions, because I

04:47do think that that's what's so fun. Logan and I talk about the national market a lot. And then you

04:51and I

04:51talk a lot and what you write about is much more regional, local, whatever. So what has been a theme

04:57regionally this year? Um, so we've had several. And so I think that that one kind of lesson in in

05:08looking

05:08back at 2026 as a whole so far, is that really, the housing market has normalized, it didn't break. And

05:19so

05:19when we're looking at how that happened on a regional scale, I think that we've we've kind of been asking,

05:28will higher rates break demand, right? And, and the supporting data there is, is that it hasn't.

05:37And instead, we saw adaption. And, and a lot, for example, Dallas, right?

05:47I'm not picking on Dallas just because we live here. Because it actually is a really good case study for

05:55us in this particular point. Because when you look at the headlines, I feel like people are going to

06:03think that Dallas is struggling. And but inventory is higher, homes are taking longer to sell,

06:10and sellers are giving more concessions, right? And we see that in those headlines. But Dallas is

06:16generating transactions, it remains one of the largest housing markets in the country. And

06:21and Dallas isn't broken. And it's just behaving like a housing market again, right? There was no,

06:30there was no break, it just became normalized. And it's acting like a regular housing market

06:37acts, which we hadn't seen it in a little bit of time here. And so really, the anomaly isn't 2026

06:46for

06:46Dallas, it was 2021 and 2022. And now we're, we're back. And so I think that that is is a

06:54trend that we

06:55see in in different regions is just the story feeling like something's broken, when really,

07:02it just kind of went back to normal. I really think that's a great perspective. So maybe talk

07:06about the kind of data that that we see that we have, that shows you things like that. Like,

07:11is it days on market? Or like, what is the data that you're looking at to see how a housing

07:16market is

07:16performing? Yes, well, luckily, we have like this treasure trove of data. And so if you want to know what

07:22is happening, we we have it. And so that has been been great to get to work in day in

07:30and day out.

07:30And but, but we're really, really looking at new listings, price cuts, absorption rates,

07:39like those new listings going into pending. And so seeing that the markets are really actually

07:44functioning and things are transacting, and and days on market. Those are good. What about

07:50relistings? When it when it comes to relistings, it's something that we've heard a lot, like,

07:54well, the reason that you know, the inventory numbers are the way they are is because people

07:58are pulling their listings off. But I mean, what do we really see on that? So relistings,

08:03I think it's a really tricky data set. And because every MLS operates a little bit different

08:10on what they're classifying as a relisting. So when you're looking at relistings, that could be true,

08:17somebody could have taken it off and put it back on. But then whether or not that counts as a

08:22relisting is really how many days it came off the market before it went back on, you know,

08:27or if it was an agent change, or, but then in some LS, MLS is they're reporting as relisting,

08:34because they're they're giving new MLS numbers to listings when they've done a price change. And I

08:43didn't even realize that was like a practice that was happening. And I was like, why is the city so

08:47different? And then we we had to ask some more questions. And we found that out. So I think that

08:55that relistings one is is a hard data set to follow because it is so different. But two,

09:04at the end of the day, we still have listings that are going to pending, we still have new listings

09:09that

09:09are going to pending in the overall absorption rate for regions, I think is probably a better

09:14indicator for for where things are transacting. Is there any region that you looked at when you

09:20look at the first half that just consistently strong or what we would say is like, you know,

09:26I mean, the Northeast, it seems like has been that region. Is that continuing? Yes. So

09:32it's been interesting, right? Because market strength has really become increasingly local.

09:40And so even if we say the Northeast, you know, it could be very different in that region itself. But

09:47specifically, like if we we just talked about Dallas, which has been one of the hottest markets time and

09:56time again. And if you said in 2026, you know, who's going to replace Dallas as the hottest market,

10:03my answer wouldn't have been Hartford. What? No.

10:07This is one of the clearest examples of changing housing leadership, as far as what people consider

10:17a hot market. And and so like during the the pandemic boom, Dallas was really one of the markets that

10:25everybody talked about. And it's just consistently ranked in Hartford doesn't get talked about a ton.

10:33But it's like quickly becoming the hottest market in the United States. And and so it's it's been

10:43interesting. And I wrote about this a week or two ago, just talking about the markets that weren't really

10:51impacted by pandemic and and post pandemic crazy, have have really just kind of flown under the radar

11:00and now are top performers. That's so great, because they didn't have the big run up. But then they also

11:05didn't have the the I don't even know if you'd call it a correction, we could say a correction and

11:09say

11:09maybe Austin and some places like that. But like in Dallas, I don't think it's really been a correction.

11:14It's just like a return to normal. But it's interesting that those what did you call them?

11:19Like the not the pre pandemic boomtown. They're not the pandemic boomtown. So the other ones and

11:24they just now they're they're really outperforming. Yeah, for sure. And and I think like we had a couple

11:31different like pandemic winners becoming just our normal markets. But then I think that that also led

11:41people to say we just need like a 20 percent price cut across the board. And then that's where the

11:48magic is going to happen. And as soon as all the housing prices come down that much from this

11:53artificial inflation, then things are going to happen. And, you know, we've seen we've seen that

12:00that isn't true either in this first half of 2026. So what really happened is that the pandemic boom

12:07normalized, it didn't reverse in and that's best seen really, I think, in Austin, just gonna stay

12:14right here in Texas. But I'm like, I think we heard, let's just cut prices and and correct

12:25this artificial inflation. And in Austin followed almost exactly what people said needed to happen.

12:33And the end result is that Austin is not one of the hottest housing markets. The,

12:40the correction mattered. And, you know, it impacted their market, but it certainly wasn't the magic

12:47bullet that I think people think if prices just come down, things are going to happen.

12:51In every market, it just depends on like, what is the demand still? And, you know, I know we know,

12:57I mean, there's still quite a big demand in Austin, you have some really big tech companies

13:01who are still building there, still hiring there. So even if people want that, you know,

13:06I feel like in some ways, people were sort of rooting for ought to see a big correction in Austin,

13:11like, yeah, take it down a peg is it got so much, but it's like, we don't really see like

13:15this huge

13:16crash or anything like that. For sure not. And I think that that is just further advancing the

13:22narrative that housing activity really depends more on than on prices alone, right? If we're all working

13:29under the same mortgage rate environment, then we're still looking at affordability, inventory,

13:37employment, demographics, and, and consumer confidence is such a big player this year.

13:43So the, the prices falling 20% didn't prove to be necessary or, or sufficient actually to create

13:53a strong housing market. Well, let's talk about the Midwest. I know that, you know,

13:56I keep bringing up regions and then you're getting a local into, um, into cities, which is the right

14:03thing to do because nobody operates, you know, in a region. I mean, they might, but like, it's all

14:07local. So when we talk about the Midwest winners, losers, stabilization, what have you seen there?

14:13I think one of the things that stood out to me the most in that first half of 2026, um,

14:20is, is the strongest markets like the ones in the Midwest were really the ones that weren't making

14:25the headlines. So we keep talking about like our Texas cities and Phoenix in Tampa, but then we have

14:33markets like Cleveland and Columbus who have just quietly continued to do what they've always done.

14:39So they, they're maintaining relatively tight supply. They're supporting steady demand and they're

14:47generating transactions. And, and that's not because like the Midwest is strong right now,

14:53not because they experienced some sort of new boom in 2026. Uh, it's because they never experienced

15:00the extremes of the other markets and then didn't have to correct the same way the other markets did.

15:07And so, um, kind of back to what we were just saying, the markets that never broke, didn't have

15:13to recover. You know, you are, um, you're still an active agent, um, in real estate. So I would think,

15:18I've never been one, but it feels like the sort of just like, let's get just back to normal for

15:24if you're in the business is what you really want. It's like, let me just get back to where I

15:28need to

15:29provide good customer service and tell you about the neighborhood and, you know, find you the right

15:33house and not be like, okay, there's 25 offers or at the same time, like, oh, you know, prices are

15:38dropping and now people don't want to necessarily buy. I mean, it feels like normal is, is, would be amazing.

15:44Yeah, I, I agree. Um, I think that, that back to like housing, always being kind of cyclical,

15:54you know, working in housing is always kind of a roller coaster and, and things are, are great.

16:00And then things go a little crazy and then, um, we get back to great. And so I think a

16:05lot of us

16:06would be like, instead of a roller coaster, can I just be like on a train and, uh, and just

16:11go straight

16:12for a while. Um, but the, the thing that has been the most interesting to me, um, is I've been

16:23in the housing market for, for like the housing industry for a long time. And, and I've always

16:32really cared about local data. And, um, I would always like, nobody's going to win a listing over

16:41me because they had more knowledge of that area than I did. Um, but honestly, that's been an

16:49interesting narrative shift for me. Cause I think I told myself like, Hey, you are the most informed

16:55about this area, but the reality is you can be more informed about your local market by following

17:03the regional and national data stories. And, um, that's really changed my perspective as, um, a local

17:12agent is it's so different. If I were going to go to the table and say, this is what your

17:21neighbors

17:22tried now try this. Then it is to say, our market is exact acting exactly like this market dead, um,

17:31two months ago or six weeks ago or whatever it is. And, and this is what worked for those sellers.

17:37And this is how the transactions got done. So like, if you can, if you can arm yourself with these

17:43trends,

17:44because some markets might be six months ahead of you, some might be six months behind you. Um,

17:50and, and if you can say, this is what happened in, um, in this city, it is our city looks

17:58exactly

17:59like that. This worked for them. Let's try it. It's different than I think we could do this and

18:06it might work. I love that. Well, I think that's a great plug for, um, people signing up for your

18:10data digest, um, which you put out, that's a newsletter that you put out, uh, every week as

18:16someone who's in our data all the time, obviously housing, our intelligence is where people can get

18:21that local data. And, um, but I feel like we also provide a lot of the context that people need

18:26to understand. It's not just like, here's a data dump, but like, here's what this means. Here's

18:30how you can apply it. Um, and I think that that's why we feel like you're such a great person

18:35to, uh,

18:36lead this charge for us, be in the middle of that and, and be the one who's looking at the

18:40data and

18:41saying, this is how we can, this is what is going to be valuable for people who are in the

18:45business.

18:46No, I appreciate that. I do hope everybody signs up and, and gets data digest. Um, I,

18:52I love writing that and sending it out and, and try to make it as useful for everybody operating in

18:57the housing market as, as possible. Um, plus I feel like this is a good time to, to say,

19:04like I started by, by mentioning that it kind of left me asking more questions than necessarily

19:11having the answers. Um, and, and there's some things that I really think that, that are going

19:17to be important, uh, to watch both locally and regionally and, and things that I am going to write

19:23about in data digest. Um, but obviously new listings, uh, we need to watch to see if, if sellers can

19:32return

19:33to the market. Um, it is still absolutely our biggest constraint on housing activity. Um, but,

19:41but absorption matters. And so how quickly inventory is turning into transactions, like this one, I talk

19:48about all the time and, and, and sometimes like, do they really want to hear about absorption again?

19:53But I think that this is so important, uh, to, as like a measure of health for, for each market.

20:01Um,

20:01and, and because I think it's speaking to, to price acceptance, um, and, and we've talked about that

20:08before, but, um, more importantly than how big do price cuts have to get, it needs to be where are

20:17buyers

20:17and sellers going to find agreement. And as more markets have buyers and sellers who are finding that

20:24agreement and are able to transact, we're going to see the people who, who have been a little bit

20:31hesitant to put their house on the market, return to the market and, um, and then new listings.

20:38I love it. Well, I'm going to recap real quick. You have, you have three questions that you're looking

20:42for, um, in the, in, for the rest of the year, you're looking at like, will the Midwest and Northeast

20:48continue to outperform many higher profile markets on absorption days on market and pricing power.

20:53And then, uh, will inventory continue tightening in parts of the South and West as those markets

20:59work through their post pandemic adjustments. And you're also going to be looking for will new

21:03listings recover closer to historical norms or will homeowner mobility remain constrained. So

21:08love that you outlined that in your, in your latest article and that we can look to you to be

21:13like,

21:14lead us through this as we go through the rest of 2026.

21:17For sure. Yes. Um, and then people can lead themselves through it too, if they want. I mean,

21:22obviously we're going to be here supporting, um, but housing wire intelligence is available to all of our

21:29subscribers right now. Um, we, we are in, in a preview state, so get in there, um, before we do

21:35our

21:35official launch, tell us what you think about it, but follow, follow your local markets,

21:40follow the regional markets, follow the national markets all in one place, identify your trends

21:46and, and, you know, serve your, your customers and clients the, the best way that you can, because,

21:53um, because having the data and understanding, uh, where, where things have been and where things have,

21:58are going is just, it's a complete game changer.

22:01It is. And yeah, this is a great place for me to tell all of our listeners. Again,

22:05you can become a subscriber with, uh, we have a discount code just for them, which I think,

22:10Rachel, you're the one who came up with, which was podcast 20, 20% off a subscription. It's a,

22:15it's a great deal. They get all the news and information, they get housing wire intelligence.

22:19So Rachel, thank you so much for being on and thanks for, for leading our charge here.

22:24Thank you for having me.

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