00:00We still need to get the details of this seal, but from what we can see so far,
00:05what would you say has been achieved by the Trump administration since the U.S. and Israel
00:11attacked Iran on February 28th? I think they got the least bad option that was available to them.
00:21I think the original rationales for the war didn't seem to be attainable. I think for the last
00:32couple of months at least, President Trump has indicated he wanted to extricate the United
00:40States from this conflict and move it to a negotiations channel, but I think he struggled
00:47to find a diplomatic off-ramp that was functional and that he could sell, I think, diplomatically
00:55as well as regionally. I think with the help of the Pakistanis, the Qataris, I think they
01:02finally, looks like they have finally managed to put something together that is feasible
01:09and that they'll sign it in the next few days. How much of this scenario was already foreseen
01:15by previous administrations, which is why we didn't get such a direct confrontation with
01:20Iran in the past? I mean, we have seen the country pretty battered by the airstrikes, but
01:25at the same time, they were able to impose and really cause chaos across the region.
01:33That's right. I think the deal that was in place before the JCPOA achieved a lot of this
01:44restraint on Iran's nuclear program at an earlier stage. The Trump administration decided to go a
01:51different route. I think the bombings that they did with Israel in June were quite effective in
01:59putting back the Iran nuclear program quite a ways. And I think maybe the administration and the
02:08Israelis miscalculated, to be honest, about what they could achieve from a broader military campaign
02:15in February. And I just don't think, given what it was going to take to change the status quo that
02:24set
02:24in fairly quickly, I think the Trump administration calculated that they needed to find some sort of
02:30diplomatic off-ramp and probably move back to the type of JCPOA negotiations that were in place before.
02:43Ambassador, to be clear, this is an MOU, right, which is unusual in itself. You don't tend to
02:49end wars with memorandums of understanding. So how much more space is there for things to go wrong
02:57over the next 60 days? We already saw President Trump speaking to the New York Times saying that
03:01if things don't go well, they will resume strikes.
03:05I mean, he's said this type of thing before. I think it's pretty clear now that we are moving to
03:15a new stage in this conflict that erupted February 28. I mean, the signs are there that
03:23it's going to move fairly dramatically to a diplomatic track. And the key going forward
03:32is for the United States to make sure that it has the expertise that it needs, whether it's nuclear
03:39expertise or diplomatic expertise, to ensure that they can get a good agreement, an agreement that is
03:47in the interest of the United States. How much through this, peripherally, has Beijing and Russia benefited?
04:01I'm not sure that Russia has particularly benefited. I think they probably helped the Iranians some
04:06on the military side, maybe on the intelligence side, and bought some goodwill. I don't think it changed
04:13their strategic position much. I think China benefits quite significantly. They're a big customer for
04:20Iran's oil. They have provided a far more effective cover, I think, for the Iranians to operate in.
04:31They provided some. They haven't, like, stated that they would provide military protection or military
04:40supplies. But diplomatically, they have been a very important partner that has stood with Iran
04:46throughout this crisis and provided it with some strategic depth. And they'll reap those benefits.
04:53One partnership that we'll be watching will be between the U.S. and Israel as well, right? I mean,
04:58President Trump telling the New York Times that Prime Minister Netanyahu describing him as, quote,
05:05very difficult. What are the implications for this relationship?
05:11The most immediate implication is the confrontation in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. I think
05:18President Trump has already been putting quite a bit of rhetorical pressure on the Israelis to
05:24stop the bombing. I think it sounds like, although I don't know the exact picture on the ground,
05:30but it sounds like if the Iranians have agreed to go forward, that this is going to kick in.
05:38What it will look like in a few months is not clear, of course. But for now, I would imagine
05:45the
05:45Israelis see it in their interest to get out of the way and let this agreement take effect and see
05:52where
05:52things stand down the road. The relationship with Israel and the United States is strong.
05:58President Trump has been a strong friend of Israel, and I imagine that that dynamic will continue.
06:06Ambassador, what do you think are the longer lasting ramifications for the Gulf? Do you think
06:11this conflict has changed the region and the alliances, the dynamics permanently?
06:16This has been a huge shock to the Arab Gulf states. Their economies have been hit. Their infrastructure
06:26has been hit. Their people have been put under threat. They have been outraged, of course, by the
06:35actions that the Iranians have taken. These states have very ambitious economic diversification plans,
06:42every one of them. They're looking for ways to diversify their economies beyond just oil producing
06:49countries. I think disagreement, if it leads to other, you know, a more stable nuclear type agreement,
06:59will help them to get back to a situation that is stable and secure so that they can focus on
07:06these
07:06economic diversification plans that they have out there for 10 years, 20 years,
07:11or sometimes even longer. They will be concerned about the strait, and they will look very closely
07:17at any sort of governance for the strait, any sort of tolls, anything like that, and that will concern
07:25them. But they have worked with Iran over many, many years' time immemorial. They have found a way to
07:32have relations with Iran. It will be difficult at first, but I think they will find ways to reopen
07:39those channels of communication and, with difficulty, get back to a diplomatic type relationship over time.
Comments