00:00I mean, you think about the investment, not just in the oil sector, that President Trump
00:05is talking about for Venezuela, you know, in your conversations that you've been having
00:09with the C-suite over the past few days, what does that appetite look like at this point,
00:14given the very large questions that are lingering over this situation?
00:17Well, I think you teed it up perfectly there, Katie.
00:19On the one hand, every CEO out there recognizes the economic potential of Venezuela, also the
00:27economic history of this country is one of the wealthiest countries in the world in
00:31the last century.
00:33But I think they are all incredibly realistic also about the challenges that are in front
00:39of us.
00:40This is not the first country, even hydrocarbon rich country that we have seen that's had
00:44enormous compromising of its economic base over years of mismanagement, as well as sanctions,
00:50et cetera, et cetera.
00:51You know, to turn the promise into reality is a pretty far, is a pretty long, is a pretty
00:57long trip.
00:58Not to mention the various questions that still have to be answered, as your previous guest
01:04Amrita just said, right?
01:05We don't really know what the status of the regime is right now and the nature of its relation
01:11with the U.S. administration.
01:13What the what the status of the military and the security services, the the opposition has
01:20been sidelined.
01:21But remember, only 18 months ago, 70 percent of the electorate voted for that opposition.
01:26So, you know, we've seen situations like Iraq.
01:29And I know that there have been a lot of comment.
01:32There's been a lot of commentary over the last several days comparing this situation to
01:35historical precedents like Panama and Iraq and the others.
01:39And you can blow holes through all of those arguments.
01:41But nonetheless, it still rhymes to a certain degree.
01:43Right.
01:43And at the end of the day, you know, the Iraqis welcome the United States in.
01:48Thank you very much for getting rid of Saddam.
01:50But hey, when you want the oil or you want to, you know, run us in a way that we're not
01:54happy with, we're going to push back.
01:56And we should just point out there's still a big loose end with regards to the leadership
01:59of this country, unlike Iraq and Panama, where you effectively had the U.S. take over.
02:03You have Maduro's vice president being sworn in earlier today.
02:07And presumably she's still in charge, Katie.
02:08Yeah, absolutely.
02:09We saw the National Assembly inaugurate Delce Rodriguez as acting president on Monday.
02:15She's made conciliatory sort of gestures, statements towards the United States.
02:20We heard from President Donald Trump saying that he's going to work with Washington to
02:24quote, make Venezuela great again.
02:26As you know, we start to see this relationship sort of solidify or evolve between Venezuela,
02:32the acting president and the Trump administration.
02:35What will you be watching for?
02:37What will your clients be watching for?
02:39Look, I think the clients are going to be watching, number one, is, you know, how much
02:43visibility do you have on the runway of the global, of the operating environment in Venezuela?
02:47And you made a very important distinction there when you said that she was just sworn in
02:51as the acting president.
02:53She was not sworn in as president as the Constitution holds, right?
02:56So in other words, the regime is still holding to the principle that Maduro is the legitimate
03:03president of the country.
03:05The other thing I would note is, is that this is not a typical, you know, strongman regime.
03:10It wasn't just him and then everybody else.
03:12It's actually kind of a gang.
03:14They are a group together.
03:16And remember, she is a lifelong member of the sort of the Chavismo movement.
03:21And so it's unclear whether we're going to see fissures in this, whether she is going
03:27to get pushback from Chavismo hardliners about being too acquiescent to the United States.
03:32I think, you know, we're only, you know, less than 72 hours into this.
03:35And I think, you know, there's a large question mark about what's going to happen next.
03:39And with that sort of asterisk that we're basically three days into this, I am curious,
03:43though, do you think that company executives would be willing to actually engage economically
03:49in Venezuela, even knowing that there's a possibility that whatever regime, non-U.S.
03:55regime does end up taking control?
03:57Are they going to be permanent?
03:58Is it going to be stable?
03:59Are they going to have those types of questions?
04:01Look, I mean, the economic potential, the size of the country and so on and so forth have
04:05got to have got to force you to do your homework here to a certain degree.
04:09And obviously, different companies in different industries have different risk tolerances and
04:13different abilities to measure that risk as well.
04:17But as Amrita just pointed out, you're going to be making a contractual arrangement with
04:22the regime that's in power right now.
04:24And again, the legitimately elected government has not been put into power.
04:29If they should come to power down the road, what will the nature, what will the sanctity
04:33of those contracts, you know, look like at that point?
04:36I also think we need to work.
04:38And we should point out, I mean, we went down this road before Rachev is.
04:40I mean, there were contractual obligations that he basically ripped out.
04:43Right, right.
04:43And remain, when you get out of the hydrocarbon and other extractive industries and you look
04:47at the status of this economy and how dilapidated it is now and so on and so forth, there's
04:52a long way to being able to build up that consumer class again.
04:56Because it's going to take a while to realize, even if everything works perfectly, to realize
05:01the financial gain of energy sales.
05:04With regards to the geopolitical risk of doing this, I mean, let's say we do get a true infrastructure
05:08build, a commodities infrastructure build out there.
05:10Price tag that Bloomberg has put on is at least $100 billion to do that, which would largely
05:14be funded by a lot of the private companies.
05:16But it gets to this idea, is there geopolitical risk in the idea that the U.S. would basically
05:20be spearheading this rather than Venezuelans themselves, if you know what I mean?
05:25Well, there's a 19th century concept of gunboat diplomacy, which obviously is getting thrown
05:30around here a lot.
05:31But I also think that multinational corporations are operating in a lot of other parts of the
05:36world.
05:36And remember, you know, if the U.S. takes the position that this oil is somehow ours, and
05:42again, we don't know what the Venezuelan street is going to push back on or how they are going
05:48to regard that necessarily.
05:49But there are other countries in the world where U.S. companies are operating who may
05:54take a very different view on what's under the ground in those countries.
05:58So I think it's got huge geopolitical ramifications.
06:02And I think we've talked about this on this show before, Romain, that the operating environment
06:06under the feet of CEOs and boards right now is shifting in a way that it hasn't in many,
06:11many years.
06:12And, you know, I think that this is this is a dramatic data point in that continuing saga.
06:19And we only have about a minute left.
06:20But you think about those geopolitical ramifications.
06:22There's a lot of questions about what this means for other countries and how they position
06:27themselves.
06:28You think about China with Taiwan.
06:29You think about the questions about Russia and Ukraine.
06:32I wonder, you know, where you fall on that.
06:34I mean, I think this notion that we're falling into a spheres of influence kind of a world
06:38is certainly music to the ears of both China and Russia.
06:41It actually comports with their worldview.
06:44But again, our allies are also having to consider what this means.
06:47You know, the president obviously put Colombia, Cuba, even Greenland on notice over the course
06:53over the course of the weekend.
06:55And also, you know, I think we need to look at the national security strategy that was
06:59issued only a month or so ago.
07:01And people ought to reread it and take it and take it seriously.
07:05So, yeah, there's a there are a lot of changes in the global operating paradigm right now that
07:13none of the current stock of CEOs and board members and whatnot have ever actually gone through
07:18before.
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