00:00Welcome to Lloyd J. Austin, former U.S. Defense Secretary and co-founder and CEO of Clarion Strategies.
00:06Secretary Austin, thank you for speaking with us.
00:10Just this morning, President Trump called for Israel and Iran to seize their fighting.
00:16What does a continuing war in the Middle East mean for U.S. defense capabilities?
00:22Well, certainly we would like to see this ceasefire hold so that we can get negotiations completed and then we
00:33can get the strait open again.
00:36I mean, it's important to you, not only to the United States, but the entire global economy.
00:41And so the sooner we can do that, the better. And we can't get there until we stop fighting.
00:48So, as you know, Lebanon or Israel has been attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:58And yesterday, Iran voiced its concern by launching an unprecedented attack on Israel as a part of this.
01:11And Israel has responded.
01:12But we'd like to see that tamped down so that we can get on with the business of negotiating the
01:20agreement.
01:21What are the military options to reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
01:26Well, certainly the United States Navy could open a Strait of Hormuz and holding it open for a long period
01:33of time would be pretty costly.
01:37And so we'd like to see an international effort if that's the case.
01:42If we get it open, we want to get allies and partners involved in that.
01:46Because freedom of navigation is not just important to the United States of America.
01:52It's important to the entire globe.
01:55You know, every country on this planet has an interest in making sure that they can sail the seas and
02:02fly the international skies as they should be in accordance with international law.
02:09You spoke of an international effort.
02:12Europe is in the middle of the two wars waging right now in the Middle East, as well as in
02:17Russia and Ukraine.
02:18Are European nations doing enough and fast enough to increase their defense capabilities?
02:24What we're seeing in Europe right now is a significant investment in their own defense capabilities.
02:31There are a number of countries that have increased their spending, and we see countries far exceeding, in some cases,
02:41the expected 2% of GDP investment.
02:47And so I'm pretty optimistic about the direction of travel here.
02:51It'll be important that Europe continue to work together, the countries work together in Europe, to create a capability that
02:58allows them to operate on an interactive basis going forward.
03:05So, again, the investment is exciting.
03:08It'll take the industrial base some time to be able to ramp up to create the kind of capability that
03:14Europe believes it needs.
03:16So we're looking forward to that.
03:17And how important is NATO for America, and what's America's involvement in it going to look like, you think, going
03:26forward?
03:27Well, as you know, NATO is the most successful defensive alliance in the history of the world.
03:36And, you know, we have an interest in a transatlantic cooperation.
03:43Europe has an interest in transatlantic cooperation.
03:46So it's important to both of us.
03:48I am hopeful and somewhat confident that NATO will not only sustain itself, but continue to grow.
03:56And do you think America needs to rethink its strategy of having troops on the ground in allied countries,
04:04given there is an increasing America First policy and the conflicts are so global right now?
04:10Well, each administration will assess its force posture and continue to make adjustments as it sees fit.
04:20And there are opportunity costs, you know, in whatever you do.
04:24And so it's always kind of balancing the scales there to make sure that you have the right capabilities in
04:30the right places.
04:31And again, I won't speak for the administration.
04:34That's something that they'll do on a on a on a on a day to day basis.
04:39Are you worried that there's an increased chance of China invading Taiwan because of U.S.
04:45less vulnerabilities as it fights the war in the Middle East?
04:49I think, you know, what we've seen as a result of the summit that was conducted in May, I think,
04:54you know, there's probably less risk of escalation going forward here in the near term.
05:03Having said that, there are a number of things that we're going to have to continue to work on with
05:07with respect to our relationship with China.
05:11I don't think that President Xi wants to take Taiwan by force.
05:16That's my belief.
05:17I believe that if he could do it through coercion and demonstration of military capability, that then he would he
05:26would do it that way.
05:27If there's a fight in the in the Taiwan Strait or in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, it will
05:32have a much greater impact on the global economy than what we've seen with the in the Strait of Hormuz.
05:38And what did you make of Secretary Pete Hexet's D-Day anniversary remarks calling an immigrant invasion in Europe?
05:49Certainly I don't have any comments on the secretary's remarks.
05:54What I would say is that our European allies are important to us.
05:59They've always been important to us.
06:00The sacrifices that our troops made on D-Day many years ago, I think, set an example for the world.
06:09And we remain grateful for, you know, what what allies and and partners did as a part of that that
06:16great effort.
06:17And so, you know, we honor that that sacrifice each and every year.
06:22And again, I am very appreciative of what our allies continue to do for the United States of America.
06:29And speaking of the military, Secretary Hexet is also reported to have removed women and people of color from promotion
06:37lists in the army and the navy.
06:40What is the message you think that sends about the U.S. military?
06:46Certainly, I leave it to the secretary to really explain why, you know, why he made those moves.
06:54All of us serve at the discretion of the president.
06:57And and so why those moves were made, I guess I won't try to want to try to comment on
07:05that.
07:06I would just say that, you know, we value we've always valued the contributions of our of our officers.
07:14They are the best in the world.
07:17We've seen that demonstrated certainly most recently as our military has has performed in an impressive fashion.
07:25And that's it's performed that way because it's been led by some very competent men and women.
07:31And I think our country has long regarded the military as being the closest thing to a meritocracy in this
07:38country.
07:39And I would hope that it remained that way.
07:41Again, as you as you develop and groom officers for certain positions, you want to select the best available talent.
07:50And I think that's been done over the years.
07:53And when you lose that talent, that talent, it takes a long time to replace it.
08:02You know, the experience that those those men and women have is I mean, there are people who will step
08:08up and assume assume those positions.
08:11But but I think, you know, the loss of those people certainly has an impact.
08:18Secretary Austin, thank you for your time.
08:20Thank you for joining.
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