00:00And in this context we want to invite Farid Marouk, statistics experts at Fragile States,
00:07to share his insights in these elections that are taking place in Peru. Hello Farid,
00:13welcome to From the South.
00:17Well, good afternoon. Thank you very much for the invitation.
00:23Farid, polls have closed nationwide and many irregularities that have been reported throughout
00:27the day. But I would like first to put the scope on the first round of elections that also were
00:33marked by irregularities, that the results as well were released officially over a month after
00:39the election took place. And I wanted to ask, what does this says about the strengths of the Peruvian
00:46state? Well, for Peruvian standards to have so many elections, so many years is exceptional.
00:57As a matter of fact, for other countries it's little, but for Peru is, we have elections since 2000
01:06non-stop for president, since 2001 to be exact, every five years. This is exceptional that we have in Peru.
01:17It is important to highlight, as you are saying, and we could go deeper into this analysis, that
01:23Peru is setting for to elect its eighth president in almost a decade. How has this instability have been
01:31affecting the electoral, the people of Peru and precisely their confidence in democracy?
01:40Well, the, as a matter of fact, is that since 2016, the difference between the, in the runoff,
01:52the first and the second is less than one point. So there is a sort of critical equilibrium, because one
02:02percent difference may enable to any president to say, I won because the majority of the country,
02:10excuse me, is less than one percent. So it's almost nothing. It's just flipping a coin.
02:16So this continues up to now. Now we are making the first resource with interviews to the people who,
02:27who were in the, in the elections. And the difference is, again, one point difference.
02:3645.5 versus 50.5. So it's nothing of difference. So we are going to have another five years of
02:48crisis, if you want to say. We have already, from 2016 to 2021, four presidents from 2021 to 2026,
02:59another four presidents, another four presidents. And now we have a new president, whoever wants,
03:06will want for nothing. So this is a, this is the real risk.
03:12And after this analysis, what is at stake today for Peru?
03:18Well, the stakes is essentially is urban versus rural, a president who will put the priorities of the
03:30government facing the external side of the economy, exports,
03:37and higher income for the elites, including the, the big cities. And the other candidate is one,
03:49is the one who have won in the rural side, two to one. So this is a large majority.
03:57Because prioritize the, the peasants, the poor, the survival of the people inside the country.
04:06So this is the real dilemma that we are facing now in Peru.
04:10And also, what consequences could the next government
04:15face when taking office after such a complicated and also questioned electoral process?
04:23Yes, we have some experience in that. The problem is that the Congress
04:30is made by political parties that are very, very fragile. They are, they are not all parties as other
04:40countries to say Argentina or Chile, where the, or, or Mexico, where the parties exist many, many years.
04:50Here in Peru, most of the parties are brand new. So their representation in the Congress is very,
05:00very fragile, very, very, is, is, is a volatile
05:06representation. So we don't know what is going to happen in the Congress
05:10in the Congress when you need to approve laws. And also in the Congress, as happened in the previous
05:18time. Presidents were
05:20were cancelled by the Congress. The Congress has authority, every constitution has that,
05:28that the Congress, that is the representation of the people, may remove the president.
05:34And we have a wide experience of that, of the, of the president that we have. We have removed several
05:42presidents already.
05:45Also, in this context, candidate Roberto Sanchez has denounced that he is being a victim of judicial
05:53persecution in Peru's political landscape. You mentioned Congress, but I wanted to ask you as well,
05:58how has the judiciary and justice become also a tool for political purposes in the nation?
06:06Well, Peru, in that sense, is exceptional.
06:10Right now, we have four former presidents in a special jail, only for presidents,
06:18because there were four, now there is four people, and another one is dead now, Fujimori,
06:26and another one is too old to be in jail, Kuchinsky. So, to have presidents in jail here in Peru
06:35is quite common,
06:36compared to any other country of Latin America. This is starting in 2000, with the capture of Fujimori,
06:46in the beginning of 2000, and went to jail. And later, more presidents have been in jail.
06:53So, the structural use of the judiciary in Peru, I think it is an outlier. For what we have seen
07:06in Latin America,
07:07that usually the judiciary is a political arm of some group against the other. But in Peru, this is extreme.
07:15I think four presidents now, in a single jail, sharing a location, is exceptional. It's something,
07:25I never, I don't know of any other country in the whole world, who are facing this.
07:31Thank you very much, Farid, for your time here from the South, in this crucial moment and day for
07:36Peruvians and also for Latin America. Thank you to you.
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