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NewsTranscript
00:01I am at fault Apishtraad Abasi, if you see Aaj here in the market then immediately straighten the two parts of Binu.
00:12can,
00:12One before half past twelve when there was mayo in the market, there was a little redness and at half past twelve
00:18After this, the market suddenly woke up, don't ask, did it get energy, did it get a new injection, what happened?
00:25Pishtar, you tell me this which suddenly...
00:29The mood of the market has changed this afternoon, I think what were the main issues involved in it?
00:37So, US related tension is dying down a bit, I think it is important for both sides to sustain it now.
00:44It's a little difficult and tomorrow...
00:47I was seeing that it was mostly due to monsoon which could have been delayed a lot but today it was a little
00:53There is a lot of news from there that the monsoon may not be delayed that much, so there will be some relief due to that.
00:58The rally has arrived and I don't think the
01:16I hope that the softening effect of raw oil is there or along with it the monsoon is there.
01:22Is some new confidence being created or is this being done in the market with the predictions of monsoon?
01:29I'm saying okay, it all goes on, now our sub-
01:32But it doesn't make much difference, I was very nervous about it.
01:52There has been a lot of movement due to semiconductor or similar related stocks and it seems that there
01:58Generally, a concentration mix is almost complete, which is the maximum concentration in these stocks.
02:07Sometimes it is
02:08He is already there, so according to us, he has the potential to lead a rally in stocks now.
02:12Now it is low and if you look at the valuation of those stocks, it is also quite stressed, so I
02:17It seems he is in a concentrated space
02:20The rally in AI and semi-conductors has almost peaked out, so because of that
02:24There are also non-India markets, especially the US or markets like Korea and Taiwan, which are copying fast.
02:30I think he is great and his performance is also great.
02:47So, normalization happens only in such economic situations. World War II also ended on this issue that Britain
02:52It was not possible to sustain it any longer, so I think this is also the case now that this war
02:57Now it will not be sustainable for long and if the war is not sustained then Hormus will open up and oil prices will fall.
03:03We have already seen that
03:04On every news, they fall by 5-7-8%, so I think as soon as the oil goes below 75
03:10It goes away and there is confirmation that the hormonal situation will normalize and the fear of inflation will also be largely over.
03:16If it happens then it will also become clear from the RBI meeting tomorrow or day after tomorrow that
03:21A�
03:34That this hormonal situation becomes very important, the monsoon, the spread of monsoon, event distribution.
03:42All these things will take center stage for a month or two, but I don't think they will happen much.
03:47There will be a material impact because the way irrigation, connectivity etc. work has already been done at the national level for 10 years.
03:54There is a lot of difference between a year ago and today and I think the primary pick now should be
03:59There should be a boost from urban consumption, there should be a boost from capex, there will be more negative there.
04:05Even if you see a 2-4% decrease in rainfall during the season, there should not be much impact.
04:24The issue was being discussed, meaning India was being separated from the AI story and was being seen as
04:29There is no AI, actually IT will not work here, but today's case is something strange.
04:37I think a lot of things move very fast these days because of social media.
04:44So what happens now is that everyone forms their own opinion about the retail H here also.
04:49There is the &I segment, that too has grown considerably.
04:52However, if you talk to any institution, no one has the view that IT
04:57There will be no need for IT, it will end.
04:58And the way the focus has increased on consultancy and AI-related avenues in the last 3-4 years
05:05The focus has increased
05:22But since the numbers are not that supportive and the global mall mood was a bit nervous, it was a bit over
05:28reaction happened
05:29But right now, the valuations you are getting across the board on IT stocks should be in the mid-caps.
05:34Or you were on the front line, there was no chance of falling from here.
05:38Plus, Accenture has also seen a significant recovery in the last 3-4 days, so there could be a blowdown here as well.
05:43If it is happening then I think valuation comfort is one role, the other thing is that you had fallen very deep.
05:49And there is a lot of fear related to AI that when the product is announced, it becomes 5-5-10-10% correct.
05:55Which probably has a much more direct impact.
05:58No, rather we believe that when AI is implemented at the initial level, then more technology
06:03Stocks will benefit from increased sentiment. Doing business in a typical style will be difficult. There is disruption, but it is not like this.
06:10That disruption is going to come tomorrow or the day after, next year, next year, two years, three years.
06:15To them this
06:16It will feel like this but I think most of the IT companies have already prepared for this, so most of us
06:21If you are not of such negative influence then do you like something here in IT right now or right now
06:31Added to avoid list
06:34It is our preferred choice that we have so much valuation comfort in the front line that you can go to Infosys, Wipro, TCS,
06:42In terms of recovery, I think there should be a complete turnaround.
06:46There has to be science where you should see consistent improvements.
07:01If you subscribe, you should continue and that means every company has its own target year if you invest for one year.
07:15What kind of goals should we have?
07:17And that means every company has its own preparations, so according to that, what strength of the individual company do you like?
07:25It's coming if you could tell me a little bit about it in detail.
07:30That Ko Forge, as per what was expected from the earlier number, we will sell two to one
07:35We were moving with the target of, I had gone there once before, but left a little early, then we
07:39It has been corrected but now the AE integration etc.
07:53We have a turnaround. In the last three-four years, they had a lot of margin issues but now they seem to be doing well.
08:00The truth is that those things are now on the verge of improvement and in the coming three-four quarters you will see continuous progress.
08:05Outperform in number of
08:21As their margins should increase, they are already working on cyber security etc. They are looking to move ahead in the vertical.
08:28Five year CAG is expected at 18-19%, so it should be beneficial for KP IT Bella Soft
08:34The type of automatic
08:48In the first period of 3-6-9 months, in the next 2-3 quarters, you will see improvement in your numbers.
08:54Needed
08:57Of course, this is about the IT sector and today there has been a very good recovery from the bottom in banking as well.
09:03Well, first of all, I have a question in IT itself. This is a question from our viewers, this is a question from Mussooran Bhat.
09:10They have TCS, 350, it got recovered today, so now
09:15They are asking whether to make it or sell it. They are also keeping an eye on which carton will be available in it.
09:23But according to them, they have not disclosed their purchase price but their eyes are on today's recovery.
09:28What attitude should they take towards Sesame?
09:44We are sure that the way big orders are being received, there is a high probability that in the coming time you will
09:50There will be a very good improvement in the numbers as well. If you are trading around fifteen times, then forward one year.
09:56less than my income
09:57If you must trade at least 20-22, then if you trade at 20-22 now, then you should assume that
10:03Let's say from here at least you are getting 30% off, so target up to Rs 3000 and above.
10:10So you should take it at least, right now it is below 500, hope to reach 3000.
10:29I have been listening to it now, yes it is necessary because in VFC there is a slight difference in banking, listen to the silence
10:34How much does it do because there is a little overhang of advances in private sector banks.
10:40But I will not stay with my
10:41Also, there is a huge risk of stalling in micro finances that were looking at recovery. Rudl
10:47India or semi-rural, semi-urban India, as we call it, comes into slowdown, so I think
10:53That can be a challenge because of that.
10:55He is a bit negative about banking, especially PSU banking and microfinance.
11:01Front line private sector banks may not be affected by this but it may be affected a little.
11:11I think
11:12Due to the improvement related to monsoon and also if you see generally, then due to my opinion, HT
11:19FC Bank is at a very depressed valuation, there is a lot of bullishness there and take your target to 1100, 1100 and a half.
11:25Are you a
11:42Humari tabat hai aur publi akta banks me toh aap SBI and front line naam se P ambi Canara Bank
11:50We can be concerned about OP. I don't think there is much downside, there may be some material upside as well.
11:55If not, why not in one and a quarter years?
12:11So I think the way SBI is revamping the entire process, it is becoming more aggressive.
12:16And one aspect of monetization should also be played out, so here especially you will see private sector banks
12:25I like Estésie Bain more.
12:41Corporate governance is agar but I think there is a high probability that axis is a little bit valuation catch up play
12:47If you do it, you may see some improvement, especially according to your target.
12:55At Axis Bank, we
13:00You can take targets up to around 1475. There is no aggregation in Jai and Kotak but there is asset.
13:12Quality wise it has always been the best bang and I think the rechristening that they are doing is their
13:18You need to adopt Ricker in Janji Bagera.
13:21If they are trying, then I think they should get the benefit of it in the future, so next year.
13:28There was 25% growth in the hazing as well, so the target was around Rs. 400-450.
13:35Yes, it can also happen, so now the overall meaning is
13:51In that, it is becoming very difficult for the investor as it is today that yes, you should stay invested.
13:57Keep investing, keep patience, it is becoming very difficult to explain this because everyone is in the habit of being linear.
14:06to analyze what has happened
14:08Whatever is there will happen but if the market moves a little in the opposite direction then what has happened will not happen again and
14:14No, if nothing happens in the synergies, I think valuation comfort is still quite high across markets and
14:21Now allocation wise if from you
14:34Like OMC, I think there should be a smarter one sometime, a little contrast
14:41Diversified play could be Reliance connecting to the same segment where the valuation comfort is quite high, so my
14:48Izab se IT a little
15:05Kar Dauda should be very strong, so here it is, I am done, I am in a small company.
15:11If this big value is converted then their other book will become approximately two to three kuna.
15:15From here it is thirty to forty hundred above the all time high.
15:18crores, so I think these are some stories, defense insurance age sector, we think that the whole thing is quite obscure
15:25There is also a lot of scope there for stock stocks, so some banking, insurance, IT and defense etc.
15:33in the segment
15:34If you build a portfolio of Ina, I think it should be quite decent and the last one or two
15:39Based on how the year has gone, if the next one or two years go by then the utility market will definitely decline.
15:45If it works then according to me take that too
16:04Will it be so difficult to see that segment peaking out? Yes, that is exactly what I want.
16:11Because we've seen the JVStip concentrator vats go up in previous four-path cycles, we've analyzed them.
16:19come there
16:33Subscribe So I think there is no chance of any further improvement from here on, it may be a
16:39Five to ten percent in the last leg and you will get upset, but now comparatively, the possibility of correction here is less.
17:01Are you giving or I don't know that you can also buy foreign shares directly or through fractional investing
17:07It has started, so is it okay for those who have that kind of exposure to take money off the table?
17:14is the time of that segment
17:17Yes, according to me it is so, but the time it is, it must have participated in the investment.
17:26They have to decide how much money they are making and the main thing is that they should leave after making some money.
17:31You will not be able to get out because
17:33That when momentum is lost, it becomes very difficult for investors to exit any story.
17:38And these are a bit complicated instruments, so I don't think it will be that easy, but if you are into valuation
18:03So there we will have to leave this desire that brother, let it go up by 10% from here, 15% 20
18:08% may go up or not, meaning you may leave once and even after that it will still go up.
18:16If it keeps going, it causes great pain
18:24So it is okay to be sad after making profit rather than being sad after keeping it, otherwise you will be sad after keeping it because of me.
18:30And you will not be able to exit because at night there will be a 10% correction in the US market, then you
18:34If it does not get scattered then it is better that when
18:49Absolutely, at this time in the domestic market, tell me your themes, tell me your segments where you see better conviction.
18:56If I tell you today to create a portfolio of five stocks, think about it a little.
19:13The valuation is around 1850, which will increase as soon as the oil-related uncertainty ends.
19:19It happens that due to my reason, refining margins etc. will be normalized. We are not expecting much kicker.
19:25Is
19:25that very cheap oil can be found here and there but normal business is also going on so I think there
19:30It should also look like an improvement, so we are quite bullish on Reliance, Tara so fifty ke so tipi
19:48What target are we carrying forward?
19:49We have already seen a significant weakness in HDFC Bank due to recent issues. The valuation comfort is quite high.
19:56And I think after a long time, HDFC Bank, despite being such a large entity, is moving towards big growth.
20:02You may not see results immediately in one quarter, but whatever it is
20:07over the next two three quarters we have to
20:09If you feel that you should see the effect, then it should be played out gradually and then we should evaluate whether we are comfortable.
20:15People are quite happy, there is a little uncertainty in buying HDFC bank at these valuations.
20:28So I think there's a lot of risk and I think between Jean P etc. and this type of thing
20:34But news keeps coming that there will be this problem, there will be that problem, some of it will be like this.
20:39There is not much manpower and I think the growth rate they are targeting has a very high margin of safety.
20:44It is high in valuations, so this is the elephant which should dance and should jump around in the coming times.
20:501100 target here is the third stock we think should be Tata Motors Tata Motors Passenger
20:56The vehicle is not a commercial vehicle, the uncertainty related to JLA in Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle is already behind us.
21:02There are a lot of problems that have gone away, we are not able to see them from the main, so I think there are a lot of problems there.
21:07You can expect a solid recovery and
21:24The launcher is constantly improving. Viti Aago has also been launched. Attractive price point. Attractive options available.
21:30It seems that Avinia's launch is also due and as soon as the problems related to Jailor are resolved, then its
21:36They should have a huge benefit, we are in the front lines with a large stock.
21:47Hello, we think it is a very good bat for long term. Hindustan Aerotex is very good for long term.
21:53Bats should be proven and we feel that the type of news flow in defense should come in the times to come.
22:00In particular, in complicated aerospace engineering there is
22:04has a first mover advantage, there are many domestic developments in the issue of inches, there is also development related to GE.
22:09As it plays out
22:11I think the valuations are quite attractive and we can initially go with valuations of Rs 500 each.
22:18There are, but I think there is a huge potential for upward rating from there as well.
22:22Quarter on quarter, you may find it difficult because obviously there is a little lumpiness in defense and there is a sector where
22:29We are quite bullish, I think there is a lot of improvement that is going to happen in the coming times, that is realistic.
22:34So we will add one stock
22:37Godrej properties, I think it is a very big asset bank, the company is already planning a very big development.
22:43So, you should see this improvement continuously for the next two to three years. Right now, there is some nervousness in between.
22:52But I think it is quite an attractive valuation for Godrej properties.
22:56We are taking initial targets up to 3800, after that view and further review we feel
23:01This should be a very strong re-rating candidate. You are continuously seeing improvement in GDP.
23:22And according to this long term sustainable story, I think your earnings related meaning have increased a lot.
23:28It is no longer beneficial to keep coming and going like before.
23:30Simple earnings growth and the way their GDP is expanding seems to me to be quite aggressive targets.
23:36So, for the next four-four years, we need a lot of funds. We are thinking about it in a year or two.
23:40That you should also buy targets above 3500-3400 in Godrej
23:46Yes, of course, now there are some questions from the audience, so let's move on to them where you
23:53If you feel that it is not in your coverage or you want to expand it, you can skip that question.
23:59There's no problem with that. Here's a question about vectors. What is vector food?
24:15I think if you are a long term player then the way Vector Food has a hold in bakery etc.
24:20And the kind of products etc. we have launched, we are still available in many places pan India.
24:25But it can increase its presence if palm oil prices are finally becoming direct.
24:40In the next two years, we are expecting that the earning will increase to around Rs 7-8.
24:45If there is a growth of 25-30% in CIGR, then at Rs 7-8, you can assume that it will be Rs 30.
24:52It is very easy to get time, so keep the initial target at 240, even there do not hurry.
24:58There is no need to match, I think this would be a good stomach for long term keeping.
25:02The brand is strong, and the national purchase is yet to be made.
25:05They are present in pockets, but according to me, their growth path should be quite aggressive.
25:12Quasi FMCG, only FMCG can say that your product baskets will also come, it is not a very big market cap of 5000
25:18The market cap is around ₹100 billion, so I don't think it's too early to take on debt yet.
25:23is not
25:41The visa I have been staying in should be cancelled and I should also get the benefit of national expansion, so hold it.
25:48Do it with my permission
25:49Keep the initial time at 240 but even beyond that you can review it at that point and hold it.
25:54You can do it beyond that but look here from above, that is, from half.
26:02Subscribe and see its P multiple right now, so Chawal is looking around it, it is fifteen days
26:12If the percentage is going on in between then does the PG formula fit according to that?
26:17At this much growth, we have so much valuation, so much
26:32If you look at Vector's numbers over the past few years, there has been a consistent improvement over the last year.
26:37There has been a very rapid deceleration in the numbers that you are getting, which earlier you were earning around Rs 9.
26:44are expecting
26:44So right now you are expecting it to be around Rs 7, so when this deceleration will come back to normal.
26:49So forward earning increases again so what you're seeing right now is 29 percent in 27
26:55You are expecting 20-21 percent growth.
27:13We will do it and getting 30-40 won't be that difficult because then you will talk about bottom line growth.
27:19If it looks like 40%, not 30%, then it will become 40% as per PG.
27:24Molticul and here you have just made your picks
27:42But I have seen a subscriber, you have it in your tracker, I have not seen this Lotus developer steel, but
27:54Whatever I have seen, whether it is a developer or a signature developer, the same thing happens in all of them that the next two
27:59The growth in the year is very amazing.
28:11So I think now for the next two years or so, what are you achieving? For the next two years,
28:18It is expected that the CGR of the top line and bottom line will be around 50% in the next two years.
28:23I am getting around Rs 10 in multiples of 13 14 and I am getting a value of 20 25 from you.
28:40You get 200-300, then you should get the target, so according to me the real estate cycle is quite strong.
28:48And there are many top companies which will perform very well in this type of way in two years.
28:53so maybe quarters and you
29:1028-30 is also around and if we look at its gross, it is running above sixty, so here it means markets
29:18Are you not ready to give any value to it yet or on top of that the correction has been too much, generally real
29:24You have been to the estate for the last 6-8 months.
29:46If you subscribe, it changes very quickly, which are forwarded, if there is a big collapse in the market right now
29:54If the macro factor comes then the expected earnings of even front line companies tell that your
30:01How much confidence does this unlisted community have? Many times, even the management's confidence goes down, usually when macro
30:07If the environment is very nervous then there is nothing wrong in it. Today if we also start any business
30:26Rand Kar R
30:31As this phase plays out over the next two years, the rupee will be trading around 25 for the eleventh time.
30:37There are multiple mid-sized and small companies, it will not be difficult as soon as the execution comes in the market with my help.
30:44Only he who gains confidence does it.
30:50So our viewers have bought it at 189, they are currently in loss, they will recover.
30:57Daiso Paune Teen So you can keep it comfortably, Daiso Paune Teen So also I am very miserly, the targets of the video
31:02I am saying that if according to me
31:21The next question here is from Roshan ji, it is about Kalyan Jewellers, he has taken it on your tracker.
31:30The next question is not here, but I think generally the trend that should continue from here is
31:41This will reduce the interest towards premium jewellery.
31:47Kalyan has such a huge focus on this segment, I mean I am talking about cart land type of racing.
31:53I think the growth there will be quite robust, there will be a lot of growth here if you look at Joe Ellery.
31:58If I look at it, many times he goes
32:14If it is still running even after the subscription is corrected, then I don't think there is much of an issue here.
32:20will meet because recent announcements and duty have been that due to structuring a little around gold centimes
32:41It must be very much that you will not be interested in keeping it tied in a turban, I think Lazli Premium Jolly
32:48Which is a niche, hall marking etc., he got a file like this and he has played it out.
32:53And if you earn 18-20%
32:55The growth rate is going to track in the long term, so you can build any story in it, big me.
33:00I don't think there's much left to build the story like IT was 10 years ago.
33:05People used to give multiples of 40 to make someone believe it.
33:07I was not prepared that Grajuli would decelerate. Today front time stocks are available at multiples of ten to fifteen.
33:12So when there is no growth in the industry, multiples get realigned. FMC ji is an aberration because there
33:18tree
33:38Subscribe, no problem, then move on to the next question, no problem with that, about Leela Hotel
33:50I, Kaushik Gatak, am asking what could be the long term perspective in this if someone takes a long time
33:56So what is Nivea looking for?
34:03Subscribe I think the capex etc. they have done and the kind of premium property they have
34:08If you find it there, you should get to see it and it is not very expensive if you look at the elevation wise.
34:15And P
34:32If there is 10-15% upside, you should trade 20-25% on EV beta, then that is what you expect.
34:39You can do it but there is not much performance in hotels, we have a stock from the same hotel.
34:45quite bullish so if you
34:47If you want to take it in a hotel then you should take it from me because like Max did acquisition of turnarounds.
34:53Sami has also done that strategy in many hotels, we have broken it with our Isab.
34:58And you have seen it continuously for some time now.
35:04And we think the growth you'll get here will probably be comparatively better, and there's also valuation comfort in the same.
35:12So I think this could be a great space because bringing growth into the hotel is a bit challenging.
35:18If so, it is your
35:24I have forgotten to go to the same hotel, especially this mid-range strategy, I like it in the convergence.
35:30It seems that they will be able to bring growth quickly at the top line level and at the bottom line level.
35:35The next question here is from Ranjesh.
35:40Regarding Ayar CT C but he has not written his time frame, so Ranjesh ji should quickly write his
35:45Please add the time etc. and then we will take your question, till then we will take another question.
35:51And here's what you can say about Relaxo.
35:54The question is Surendra ji has 455 shares of Relaxo Footwear at the price of Rs 351 and he has the intention of advertising.
36:02Do you feel like it will be okay?
36:06All the corrections we have given across the footwear, be it Relaxo or Bata, I think it has been quite refreshing.
36:13And we have not seen any kind of relief rally in these stocks, it is probably in Relaxo.
36:19The first time was last year
36:20But I can see some relief rally from below but I think it is still 45 minutes old and
36:29If you look at them then everyone has made big plans but the related writings are
36:34It turned out to be a positive thing
36:47If the prices of petchem also come down then there will be no raw material pressure and generally our prices will be related to India.
36:53I believe that pickup should be present in urban and rugged conditions as well, so I think that is also beneficial.
36:59want to meet them
37:14If you want, then make a hole and go ahead. Specifically, I will not be able to give you any big target right now, but I think
37:21You should complete the work and move on, even if you do not make any new investment, it will still be fine, according to me, if you have
37:27and taken from above
37:41I don't see any problem in keeping whatever I have. Now the next question is Air City.
37:48Whatever I had asked about C, Ranjesh TC, please tell me a little about your time etc., then these are long
37:54want to keep it for the time being but at the same time if
37:57If you want to sell then tell me or can I buy it on HDFC and SBI if you
38:14It seems there is some benefit to be made here.
38:28If you ever travel by railways and eat railway food, you will have a lot of confidence.
38:35You don't understand their surveys and I think this ticketing etc. is okay at one level.
38:40will grow something like this
38:41It is not going to be abnormal and the way the penetration of airports etc. is increasing and our propensity
38:49To consume is increasing I think this is a big theme again that such a story
38:56Which you market ling diton
39:09Annual growth is expected and it is expected that this growth will see some huge success.
39:19I don't think anything special will happen here, but according to me, you have chosen HDFC and SBI.
39:24He is better than me
39:28Now, what wonderful stories have been created in this and it can be seen in this chart that the same stories have been created in the years
39:38In essence it is
39:40Meaning, it was done till Dakhuna, but later for those who are stuck in it at the top,
39:45It has always been a value destroyer.
39:50Yes, when the story is told from above and the story line that is told, we all
39:56But I pay attention to how much meaning and validity I have to find in the story line and sometimes I feel
40:03If you go upstairs then you will go without saying anything.
40:05Then people say that you are not able to understand, then I become silent and tell the whole thing.
40:11One last question here is from Roshan ji, he is saying that he is our regular viewer, thank you, this is Raman.
40:18Asking about lifestyle, they are also incurring losses.
40:41Subscribe Significant improvements are expected over the next two years, and generally, we expect textiles and cash-based retailing to be the top drivers.
40:49This segment should be good in India, they have big brands and the people who
41:25It is possible that two paragraphs may be beneficial in future but why is it being beaten so badly now?
41:35See, in the last few times, there has not been much pickup in consumption etc. on the urban side.
41:41Plas Textiles was a cause of avoidance because people were a little apprehensive about the structure of US tariffs etc.
41:49and ch
42:03The import of cash and commission on fist etc., all that is being played out, so as it is played out
42:08It happens that we feel that there should be a lot of improvement there and in the last few times and in the Nings also
42:13We have recorded a particular transaction.
42:34Subscribe, according to me those legs will be crushed, sir Sharat, thank you very much for giving your opinion and
42:43I answered the audience's questions clearly. Finally, any disclaimer that you would like to share on your behalf.
42:50�
42:50There is no holding but our clients may have our companies. Thank you very much and yours.
42:58Where do you put your money
43:02Now people are not allowed, sir. Now if you try to be bold then I will not talk to you.
43:06Now thank you very much and I hope to hear from you again soon.
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