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00:00Hey, welcome to the video. It's June 2nd, 2026, and Iran is at Ali al-es-Salaam Air Base in
00:06Kuwait
00:07three times in five days. Yeah. During an active ceasefire, May 28th, they fired a Fatah 110
00:13short-range ballistic missile at the base. Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted it. The debris still
00:18landed inside the wire. Five Americans wounded, one MQ-9 Reaper totally destroyed, and a second
00:23one heavily damaged. $30 million each from those drones gone. And those were actually intercepted
00:28partially. And then Sunday night, June 1st, 11 p.m. Eastern time, two more ballistic missiles
00:34inbound to the same base. Both of those intercepted cleanly. No debris falling on the base this time,
00:40and no casualties. Same day as that second missile launch, Iran fired a cruise missile into the
00:45container ship MSC Sarisa V, Sarisa V, or Scarisa 5, tomato-tomato, near Kassar, Iraq. Two hits,
00:53hole breach, fire on board. Crew somehow walked away unscathed, and Iran called it retaliation for
00:59the U.S. disabling an Iranian tanker the previous Friday by putting a Hellfire missile through its
01:04engine room, which was a direct sniper hit that kept that vessel floating adrift. But here we go.
01:09Three strikes on U.S. bases, a cruise missile into a container ship, all of it while under an
01:14active ceasefire while peace talks are simultaneously running. Well, kind of. We're going to get to that
01:19here in a second. But this morning, Iran suspended those talks entirely. Some reports I'm seeing are
01:25saying that Trump used language on a call with Netanyahu that would get most people kicked out
01:29of church. But it was regarding holding back Israeli strikes in Beirut. And here's the question
01:34that nobody in the corporate media is answering. But I want to tell you from the operator perspective,
01:38how does the country like Iran that's absorbed this level of punishment still have the capability to
01:44keep launching ballistic missiles at U.S. bases? Because the answer is going to completely change
01:49how we think about this conflict moving forward. We're going to cover Russia flying one of their
01:53advanced stealth fighter jets and controlling drones from that cockpit. What that means. And
01:59then China's getting a little spicy in the Taiwan Strait as they do. So Iran's firing missiles during
02:04an active ceasefire and they're like, oh no, we just actually bumped the console. We didn't mean to
02:09do that. We actually want to negotiate. Yeah, we spilled our coffee on the console like Homer Simpson
02:14sitting in the nuclear plant. And we just accidentally bumped the big red button. But now,
02:19let's build the operational picture because this is more complex and it's more of a chess game than
02:24anybody really wants to publicly admit. So here's the confirmed operational sequences from the last
02:29five days. And I want you to understand the pattern because there absolutely is a pattern here.
02:34On May 27th, U.S. forces strike Iranian drone ground control facilities near Bandar Abbas following
02:40the downing of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper over the Strait of Hormuz. Standard rule of engagement response.
02:46Iran does not absorb that one quietly either. So on May 28th, Iran fired a Fatah 110 at Ali al
02:53-Seim
02:54in Kuwait. Kuwaiti Patriot batteries intercept. Debris, unfortunately, wounds five Americans,
03:00four service members, and a contractor. Syncom confirmed this publicly that $60 million in drone
03:05losses from a single missile intercept was from the debris that was falling from a partially successful
03:09intercept. But that's a big hit. $60 million to drones that could have been used in combat went away.
03:14And then on June 1st, U.S. forces strike additional Iranian military targets in response,
03:20absolutely decimating some of the islands and some of the areas around Bandar Abbas.
03:24Iran shot down a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone that same weekend. And then on that night, June 1st,
03:2911 p.m. Eastern time, two more ballistic missiles inbound to Ali al-Seim. That's Iran's new favorite
03:35target. Syncom posted this to X. Both intercepted. No personnel harm. And their quote was,
03:41U.S. Central Command remains vigilant and will continue to protect our forces from Iranian
03:45aggression while supporting the ongoing ceasefire. The same day, the IRGC Navy fires that cruise
03:50missile and hits that Panama flag container ship near Iraq, operated by Mediterranean Shipping
03:54Company. That does sound like a nice shipping company. Makes me a little hungry as well. Makes
03:59me think of delicious Mediterranean food. But in this case, instead of a kebab landing on their plate,
04:05it was a massive cruise missile from Iran. It was departing from Qasar, Iraq. Two projectiles hit
04:11the ship. So two cruise missiles or a cruise missile and a drone. The first hit was while
04:16the harbor pilot was still aboard. Second hit the crew area, hole breach and a massive fire.
04:21The MSSC confirmed all crew were safe, though. And this is a direct quote from their press release
04:25that everyone on board acted with exceptional professionalism. I mean, you have to have a nervous
04:31system of steel to deal with those hits and get everybody out safely. And the IRGC's statement
04:35was, in response to the aggressive attack by the terrorist and child-killing U.S. Army on the
04:40Iranian vessel Leon Starr, the IRGC Navy conducted a reciprocal operation and struck the MSC Syriza.
04:47So again, they're going to try to paint the U.S. with as much propaganda as they possibly can.
04:52And their hope is that certain aspects of the corporate media in the U.S. pick up on that
04:56and start kind of pumping that same information. It's just wild how much they're basically trying
05:02to grift and gaslight certain parts of the corporate media. We won't mention any names.
05:06And they're basically reposting a lot of these crazy propaganda statements that the IRGC regime
05:11is putting out, including General Salami, who basically gets a toothpick stuck through him every
05:16time he goes to a party and people just use him as finger food. Of course, General Salami is going
05:21to
05:21chime in. This guy is the link between the Artesh and the IRGC. He's the brother of the original
05:27Salami, the aged Salami that was aged for many years, that was basically decimated during a cocktail
05:32party, also known as the 12-day war, where he was basically obliterated and put on a platter next to
05:37delicious finger foods. But this is the current Iranian playbook. They can't beat the U.S. carrier
05:43strike groups in open water. So instead, they make the Gulf commercially unbearable, hitting vessels
05:48charging millions of dollars in tolls to transit the Strait of Hormuz itself, forcing Lloyds of
05:53London war risk premiums through the roof. So any insurance on any of these cargo ships is basically
05:58out of reach. Now, not only do they not want to go through the Strait because of the threat from
06:02the
06:02proxy forces of Iran, but because they can't actually get insurance anymore as well. But now let's talk
06:08about the adversary here, because like Sun Tzu says, know your enemy, know yourself. So this morning,
06:14Mohammad Jaffer Asadi, deputy head of Iran Central Military Command, Katam Al-Aniba said publicly,
06:20the United States demands our total surrender, and the Iranian nation will never surrender.
06:25Well, he doesn't really mean the Iranian nation. He means the IRGC and the Mullahs who are in their
06:30golden palaces, sitting on their golden crappers while they basically extort money from the rest of
06:34the world, and especially from their own people. I mean, the money that's made by the different oil,
06:39by the different cargo going through the Strait of Form that Iran's attached to, that money and
06:44that treasure belongs to the people of Iran. Doesn't belong to these mullets who are sitting
06:48there with 20 wives just being like, yeah, we're great. We're really good guys. We take care of all
06:53of our wives. And then he went on to say, the Iranian nation will never surrender. Without surrender,
06:59war is inevitable. Quick sidebar, you might be wondering about the previous IRGC major general that
07:05we just brought up. Hussein Salami? Yes, General Salami was his name. He spent years on television
07:11promising to annihilate America and Israel. He was struck down. We know the cocktail party of the
07:1512-day war. And then his replacement, General Pakpour, was also killed on day one of this war
07:20of Operation Epic Fury. So the IRGC has burned through two commanders in under a year, and they're
07:26still giving speeches like this. And at this point, they should probably see the writing on the wall that
07:30if they continue this rhetoric, they're basically going to be sliced very thin and put on a
07:35delicious platter of finger foods next to General Salami. Three IRGC commanders in nine months.
07:40At some point, this job listing should just say it comes with a very enhanced life insurance clause.
07:45But the question is, what happens when those remaining launchers fire? And what does the
07:50U.S. do about it to try to take down these ballistic missiles? And how is Iran still doing it?
07:55So let's get into what the targeting chain would look like and where Iran's actually hiding these
07:59things. This is my honest take on what is likely going on with their ballistic missile program.
08:04So first of all, what's going to strike these things down? Well, the THAAD, that's a terminal
08:09high altitude area defense weapon. It engages ballistic missiles at high altitude both inside
08:14and outside the atmosphere. Pretty epic missile here. But here's the deal. No warhead on this thing.
08:20It's pure kinetic impact. A metal telephone pole at Mach 8 hits the incoming missile body and the
08:25physics handle the rest. The U.S. redeployed shady batteries from Indiacom and Yukon, the Pacific in
08:31Europe, to Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. We have a finite number of these globally,
08:37so we have to be very careful with how many of them are used because obviously China is going to
08:41be
08:42watching that number very closely. And then layer two, Patriot Pack 3 missiles. That's kind of like
08:47the mid-layer. Shorter-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, maybe drones if they're larger.
08:53But you really don't want to waste a Patriot missile on a drone. The Patriot battery, photographed at
08:59Ali al-Saleem, has been running continuously. Should they rename Ali al-Saleem to Ali al-Salami?
09:05Just a little nod of the hat of, yeah, General Salami, we're going to keep putting you on sandwiches and
09:09maybe grilling you in a delicious panini press. Kuwait and U.S. Patriot batteries work in
09:13coordination. The May 28th intercept was Kuwaiti air defenses on the Fatah 1 and 10. The debris
09:19field is what wounded the Americans. That's not a system failure. This is just honest physics of
09:23fragmenting a very fast-moving missile that Iran has at low altitude over a base you're trying to
09:28protect. So ideally would be intercepting them further away from Kuwait. So will those tactics
09:33adjust? That remains to be seen. And then layer three, Arleigh Burke destroyer, sitting offshore,
09:39firing SM-3 standard missiles at the ballistic missiles that are in the boost phase.
09:43So pretty early before terminal descent even begins. Longest-range intercepts in this architecture
09:48can happen from those SM-3s. At least one confirmed SM-3 engagement against an Iranian ballistic
09:54missile over Turkey occurred earlier in the conflict. So combined right now, all I can find
09:59and all the reports I'm seeing, experts are assessing a 90 to 92 percent interception rate
10:04across the entire system in the Middle East. I mean, that's genuinely extraordinary at this
10:09point to be intercepting 92 percent of their missiles. And the May 28th strike is exactly
10:14what the remaining 8 percent look like in practice. The missile was still intercepted
10:18partially. Debris got in, landed on the base. Two Reapers gone, five Americans down. But Iran
10:24knows this math. They have started fielding maneuvering reentry vehicles on select missiles
10:28specifically designed to defeat predictable arc-intercept geometry. This is a managed threat. So it's not a solved
10:35one because, remember, the enemy always has a vote and they're going to adapt. That's their whole goal
10:39is to adapt. Like Mike Tyson says, everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face.
10:44So if the ceasefire collapses and it goes back to full combat operations, the platforms that are
10:49probably going to go back to work at this point will be the B-2 bomber and the F-15E
10:53carrying bunker
10:54buster bombs. Now the B-2 may be hitting some of the larger facilities that are housing the ballistic
10:59missiles underground. We can see their bunkers. They've got massive bunkers throughout the country where
11:04they're keeping these missiles and then they just roll them out specifically in the Zagros Mountains,
11:09hidden tunnel entrances that we can see on this imagery right here. The Zagros Mountains are very
11:13rugged. They can pull these things out, launch their ballistic missiles, and then pull them back in.
11:18So the B-2 is going to have to roll in and do work alongside of the F-15E Strike
11:23Eagle because of
11:23its ability to carry bunker buster bombs. The F-15E Strike Eagle can carry a 5000 LB bunker buster bomb,
11:30GBU-72 on the center line, and this is a highly capable bomb. It was actually used in the conflict
11:37early on along the Strait of Hormuz. So I would say this thing is going to be turned back out,
11:42back into the battlefield, getting more of these 5000 LB bunker busters on areas where Iran's ballistic
11:47missile program is hiding. But here's the thing, you have to be very careful and ISR intelligence
11:52surveillance and reconnaissance is huge because Iran has actually created fake bunkers in certain mountain
11:58ranges to make the US waste munitions. They pull out things from those, they emit things, so they
12:03have radars, so it looks like it could be an actual ballistic missile, but it's actually nothing.
12:07And they're trying to distract and trying to get the US to waste munition. So that's something that
12:12every planner at the Pentagon is counting on and looking into right now. If I was a betting man,
12:16you made it to the Global Roundup, my friends. So for the first story, Russia flew a 57D, which is
12:22a
12:22two-seat aircraft. And here's why it's a two-seat aircraft. They have someone in the back now who's
12:27controlling drones. So the whole point of having two people in there, in my opinion,
12:32it makes it way less stealthy than it already was. I mean, this thing's already like a 4 plus gen
12:37stealth, but having someone in the back seat now allows them to actually control drones, and that's
12:42their whole goal. And to me, they needed that second person because their AI isn't exactly up to speed,
12:47their coordination, their Link 16 that connects all the different jets isn't exactly great. So they had
12:53to have someone else up there to control those drones. So it is a win for Russia in a way,
12:58but I think
12:58it also shows some of their limitations when it comes to their fighter jets. Second story, China's
13:04navy surrounds the Philippines during a US-Japan-Philippines exercise. They conducted two major deployments
13:10in the South China Sea and West Pacific, timed precisely to the ongoing Bollican 2026 exercises
13:15involving the US and the Philippines and Japan. Beijing is sending a deliberate message here.
13:21Defense cooperation invites PLA presence. That's their whole goal. They're trying to dissuade their
13:27neighbors from working together, and they're showing that as soon as they work together,
13:31Beijing's going to roll in with their carrier, which in their mind is their big swing. And you know what?
13:37And that brings us to the 40-chest strategic analysis section. So let's talk about what Iran really
13:42wants out of all of this, and what they're not saying out loud, and how fragmented their leadership
13:46actually looks at this point. So they don't want a resumption to full hostilities. They don't want
13:51any more of their IRGC infrastructure hit. They know that at some point they won't be able to survive
13:56that. Their Air Force is gone. Their Blue Water Navy is gone. Missile production lines are extremely
14:02damaged and set back. Their launch rate has dropped from 100 ballistic missiles per day
14:07to what is likely assessed could be a dozen if the conflict kicks back off.
14:11What they want is a deal that doesn't look like surrender, because the regime that accepts
14:15unconditional American terms will probably not survive domestically, and they won't survive each other,
14:20because there's different factions across the table looking at each other just ready for one of them
14:24to blink, and so the other one can seize power. So they all want to look as strong as possible,
14:29and that's why you get both sides being talked about. Yeah, we'll make a deal. No, we won't make
14:34a deal. We're going to launch ballistic missiles. Wait, we want to make a deal. Because they know if
14:39they're the one that shows weakness, as soon as they leave the room, one of the other factions can just
14:44hit that red button, and then they're going to basically fall into a pit of sharks with freaking laser beams
14:49or
14:49orcas with directed energy weapons or dolphins with machine guns or cocaine sharks. You guys let me
14:55know which one of those you think the stronger factions of the IRGC would use. Says Ryan, also
15:00known as Max Afterburner, signing off. I could see like a Trip Advisor review of the Zagros Mountains,
15:06the ballistic missile network of Iran. They're like, we arrived February 28th with significant concerns
15:11about the structural integrity of the facility given ongoing airstrike activity that we heard about
15:16as a rumor in the area. We're happy to report though that some of the tunnels have held up
15:20extremely well. Entrances have been damaged multiple times per week, but some of the ones
15:25damaged were actually fake and not real ballistic missile facilities. Launcher parking was a bit
15:29tight because a lot of the launchers were put into specific launch facilities that hadn't been hit,
15:34so there really wasn't a lot of parking. So I would say I want to talk to the manager about
15:39getting better
15:39parking. At this point, we might revisit. We're getting some pretty good satellite imagery from
15:44China that's helping us use these ballistic missiles. So at this point, we're just hoping
15:49that the B-2 bomber doesn't come in and disturb our stay. Alright, that's good.
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