00:00આરીત
00:30highest slab,
00:3112.5%
00:33consider
00:34to be
00:34considered.
00:34But how can
00:35this U.S.
00:37can do
00:38If it is,
00:38how can it be?
00:40Let's understand this.
00:42This power
00:42U.S.
00:43has got
00:43Trade Act
00:451974
00:46section 301
00:47which is
00:49a legal
00:49tool
00:50which is
00:50United States
00:51of America
00:52or
00:52U.S.
00:54unfair
00:55trade
00:56practices
00:56or
00:57U.S.
00:58is
01:00unilateral
01:01tariffs
01:01or
01:03one-
01:04tariff
01:05This
01:05section 301
01:07is
01:07first
01:08Donald Trump
01:09has
01:09its first term
01:10in China
01:11which
01:13has
01:14tens of
01:14billions
01:15of
01:15dollars
01:16of
01:16imports
01:16extra
01:17duties
01:17Now
01:18the
01:19mechanism
01:19forced
01:20labor
01:20issue
01:21is
01:21active
01:21in
01:21US
01:22compared to
01:2354
01:24economies
01:25which
01:26are
01:27which is also included in India, which has not seen an effective ban or enforcement.
01:35This is why this is a target of new tariffs.
01:38With the proposed destruction, roughly two slabs,
01:42one for 10% of those countries, which have introduced a law or ban,
01:48and the other 12.5% of those countries,
01:51where the US thinks that it is not a proper ban, nor a strong enforcement.
01:58Now, India is in high-risk, high-tariff category.
02:01The biggest question here is,
02:04what the US has against India a solid investigation?
02:08In which it has proven that it has been used by child-liver system.
02:14Dr. Sharad Kohli, who is an economic and financial expert,
02:19who has tried to do this,
02:21and who has tried to do this?
02:23This is the child-liver, or forced-liver,
02:27which is in section 301,
02:30America wants to put tariffs on the section 301.
02:32This is the case.
02:34If it has been investigated,
02:36it has been investigated.
02:36If it has been investigated,
02:38it has been used by child-liver.
02:42This is not where it is.
02:42I have been using the US trade act in the US trade act,
03:10So this is the case of Brazil.
03:12It's been with Brazil.
03:13Brazil has 25% of tariffs.
03:15I think that it's a good reason for this.
03:18It's a good reason.
03:21It's a good reason.
03:24America has a good idea.
03:25And no one looks like this.
03:28America is putting tariffs on the 100% of tariffs.
03:30It's going to be on its own.
03:31The mandate is going to be on its own.
03:33That's what I think.
03:35Now, Trump's impact on this decision,
03:38India is very important to see the context of US trade.
03:42Look, US and India's top export destinations.
03:45India's merchandise export
03:47is significant in the US market.
03:52Broadly, if you can see it,
03:54India has a lot of engineering goods,
03:57chemicals, pharmaceuticals,
03:58textiles and garments, gems and jewelry,
04:01auto components, electronics and machines.
04:04These sectors operate already tight margins
04:06and strong global competition.
04:09If there are any segment of
04:12specific H.S. codes
04:14for 10 to 12.5%
04:16extra duty,
04:18then Indian products
04:19are compared to the US shelf
04:20competitors.
04:22How will this result?
04:25What will this result?
04:26This is the question for you,
04:29in terms of studying
04:54foreign
05:24So, there is no doubt about this, I don't see any doubt about this.
05:28The industries like textile, footwear, leather, some of the chemicals,
05:33we talk about gems and jewelry, all these industries come in.
05:37Look, the question is,
05:39which is 12.5% extra duty?
05:43Let's understand this,
05:44US consumer or Indian exporter?
05:48If you look at reality, cost sharing is happening,
05:51when the US had China section 301 tariffs,
05:54there were many empirical studies,
05:57that in many products,
05:59the duty of a big part finally,
06:01America has passed.
06:03American consumers have higher prices,
06:07more expensive products,
06:08especially consumer electronics,
06:11industrial supplies,
06:12and household items,
06:13which are the most popular things.
06:16Now, some categories,
06:18US importers,
06:19the margins squeeze,
06:20cost absorb,
06:22but long term sustainable,
06:24if India's goods,
06:27there will be 12.5% add,
06:30there will be three possibilities.
06:31First, US importer cost absorb,
06:34shelf price,
06:36or sourcing,
06:38or other country shift.
06:40Now,
06:41these three possibilities,
06:42which are effective?
06:44This will depend on the percentage of tariffs.
06:48Jobs per impact,
06:49naturally,
06:50labor-intensive export clusters,
06:52or impact will come.
06:54Past trade shocks,
06:56if you see,
06:56if you see,
06:57when you see tariffs,
06:58when you see tariffs,
06:58then,
06:58India's trade shots,
06:59will be seen.
07:01So, China tariffs,
07:03or WTO disputes,
07:05this pattern is seen,
07:06that when orders are gone,
07:08then,
07:08the first one,
07:09the contract workers,
07:10daily wages,
07:11and casual staff,
07:12will be adjusted.
07:13Indian textile hubs,
07:15leather clusters,
07:16or small engineering units,
07:17if you see,
07:19the orders from the US,
07:20the pipeline is reduced,
07:21then,
07:21overtime cuts,
07:22shifts,
07:23or temporary layoffs,
07:25will be very common.
07:27This exact number,
07:28is not given to official data set,
07:31because the tariffs are proposed stage.
07:33But,
07:33the mechanism is the same,
07:35which will happen in every tariff shock.
07:37The revenue pressure will be created,
07:38which will be cost-cutting.
07:40The cost-cutting will be the ultimate effect,
07:42employment and wages.
07:45This is a political and diplomatic layer,
07:49that reports,
07:50US and India,
07:52a interim trade arrangement,
07:54which is active,
07:55which is a possibility,
07:57that if a certain deadline,
07:59like mid-2026,
08:01or any possible deadline,
08:02this deadline,
08:03the deal closes,
08:05if India has a new section 301 tariff,
08:08a partial or full relief.
08:10This means,
08:11that India,
08:12negotiating table,
08:14there are two things,
08:16First,
08:17forced labor,
08:18existing labor laws,
08:19codes,
08:20enforcement road map,
08:21credible,
08:21showcase.
08:23Second,
08:24a bargain,
08:25where India,
08:26extra duties,
08:27will be saved,
08:28without this,
08:29US domestic politics,
08:30soft on enforcement,
08:32narrative.
08:34Parallel,
08:34if you look at the policy side,
08:36export diversification,
08:37there will be emphasis,
08:39in Europe,
08:40Middle East,
08:41Africa,
08:41like,
08:42aggressively,
08:43tap,
08:44so,
08:44single market risk,
08:45come,
08:46if you look at the surface,
08:48if you look at the surface,
08:48then,
08:48this is all things,
08:49forced labor,
08:50for ethical trade,
08:51and such,
08:53modern slavery,
08:54and coercive labor practices,
08:56of the global supply chain,
08:57that is not necessary to remove,
08:59but when the framework,
09:01unilateral tariffs,
09:02that is one way,
09:03made of a tariff,
09:04high slaps,
09:05such as 12.5%,
09:07and selective targeting,
09:09as well as the types of trade war,
09:10so,
09:10a new trade war,
09:12which makes morality and market access,
09:15This is a policy mix in a blend.
09:19India's challenge is to strengthen its labor compliance,
09:24but also to protect its exporters from the sudden tariff shock.
09:28What should you do with this?
09:29This is an ethical trade reform or a strategic tariff politics,
09:34because there is no evidence in the US,
09:37or if India has implemented something like this,
09:41or there is a report which says that child labor exists.
09:46What do you know?
09:47But India has put it in your comment section.
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