- 2 days ago
八点最热报 | 柔佛州议会昨天提前解散，政治节奏一下子被推到前台。过去三年，在“团结政府”这四个字的包装之下，各方力量其实一直维持着一种：合作与竞争，联盟与防备同在的微妙平衡。而柔佛州选，正好成了这个结构最敏感的撕裂点。（主播：梁宝仪）
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00:03The Rongfu State Legislative Assembly was dissolved early yesterday.
00:06On the surface, it was a normal procedure of returning power to the people.
00:10But the political signals are already quite clear.
00:12The pace was actively accelerated.
00:15In our commentary yesterday, we mentioned
00:17Barisan Nasional and other groups acted early.
00:19The most certain battlefield to open fire and plant the flag now.
00:22That gives you more confidence in the future.
00:25Tell Simon I don't need you anymore
00:28Over the past three years, under the guise of a unity government...
00:33The various forces have actually maintained a balance between cooperation and competition.
00:36The delicate balance between alliance and defense
00:40The Rongfu state election has become the most sensitive tear in this structure.
00:45This state election is gradually becoming the eye of Anwar's storm.
00:49A decisive military victory would impact more than just state politics.
00:53Rather, it's about maintaining a stable rhythm for the entire ruling coalition.
00:56So this battle, ostensibly the Johor state election...
00:58But in reality, it is answering three questions at the same time.
01:01Can the unity government stabilize the structure?
01:05Can Anwar still control his political pace?
01:09Has UMNO truly recovered from its lowest point?
01:16UMNO's plans in Johor have never been limited to just winning a state election.
01:19Simple
01:20Numbers are his strongest source of confidence.
01:23In the 2022 Johor state election, the Barisan Nasional coalition swept 40 out of 56 seats.
01:27They secured a two-thirds majority.
01:30This battle has been criticized as UMNO's worst defeat since its historic collapse in 2018.
01:36A strong rebound
01:37Therefore, UMNO's goal today is quite clear.
01:40Not to hold
01:41Instead, they want to replicate the two-thirds myth once again in their home turf.
01:45To prove that I am not only still alive
01:47And they can win beautifully.
01:50For UMNO, this Johor state election is more than just an election.
01:53Rather, it was a practical exercise in a national election.
01:56It's not just testing the election situation.
01:58This is also sending a signal to voters across the country in advance.
02:02If this battle is fought well
02:04The story that follows will not just be about defending Johor.
02:09It could be the beginning of a rewriting of the national political landscape.
02:16The Johor State Assembly was suddenly dissolved yesterday.
02:18The political rhythm was suddenly pushed to the forefront.
02:21This is not just a state election.
02:23It's more like a preview of the national election.
02:26The two political scientists interviewed believed
02:28This state election seems to be a policy stance.
02:31Besides the election situation, the strategy is also about
02:33It also reflects UMNO's political weight and ability to revive.
02:37I would say it's a choice to load up.
02:41Because the actions were not based on the dignity of Palestine.
02:44Qiu Rong
02:45But he himself is Barras Anshan
02:47Domestic tourism
02:48Because they wanted to use the people's wealth.
02:49Programmed
02:50Most of them are the dignity of Palestine.
02:52Or Jialin
02:53Some say
02:55Muslims need sources
02:57But I think
02:58Compare Jialin
02:59Hejialin
03:00Rong
03:00The position of Amitabha Buddha has a stronger presence.
03:04So they want to use it.
03:06What a military unification would do is...
03:08Now Johor is testing whether it can achieve one-party dominance.
03:11Then regain control of the central government
03:13This is somewhat similar to the 2022 state election.
03:17It's also a little different.
03:18The similarities are
03:19In 2022
03:21At that time, the military unification also used the early state election in Johor.
03:25Lai Chishui Wen
03:26See if it can force the central government to dissolve earlier.
03:30If this military reunification is a great victory...
03:33A military unification would allow for the choice of when to hold an early general election.
03:37It might not happen.
03:38But he became the card in his hand.
03:41If we were to say who took the initiative most in this election...
03:44The answer is obvious.
03:45Military unification
03:46Johor is the stronghold of the military unification
03:48His safe house in his political memory
03:50He started and settled here.
03:52After the collapse of the 15th general election
03:55After more than three years
03:56Under the unity government, they are recovering and rebuilding.
03:59Now choose to get rid of Simon here.
04:01Single non-candidate
04:02It is itself a declaration
04:05I no longer depend on you, Simon.
04:07I can win by myself
04:08Once you win beautifully
04:10The political logic will change.
04:13From passive governance to orderly educational policy
04:16The momentum of a military victory
04:18Once it boils in Johor
04:19It will spill over to the whole country.
04:22I don't think they're right.
04:25I think so.
04:26Especially in Johor
04:28Because if you see in Johor
04:30The entire process of governance
04:32They were all pushed out
04:33We want to participate in all 56 states.
04:36Therefore they are very expensive.
04:38Where I always strive
04:38That was for
04:38She wants to use Johor
04:40Not just Lianlak
04:43It's not just China's choice
04:45It's not just the sergeant's choice.
04:45And còn heavy
04:46Especially Ham Khan
04:48160
04:48I think they are Xiao Qi
04:50So it really is put on
04:52Political Participation
04:53délature
04:53Для Johor
04:57Johor Bahru (Large)
04:58It is UMNO's return to its peak.
05:00Shi Jinshi
05:01This is like a
05:02The boxing champion who fell to the bottom
05:04He doesn't need to win the championship immediately.
05:06He just needs to prove he can still fight.
05:08Once proven successful
05:10The next step is not cooperation.
05:12Instead, they renegotiated terms or even overturned the table.
05:14Forcing Anwar to dissolve parliament early
05:16Hold a national election
05:18If he wins by a large margin
05:19So when does UMNO feel that...?
05:21I want Anwar to disband.
05:23I will leave at any time if Anwar does not disband.
05:25If you quit
05:26Salauyo political parties alliance and Sabah People's Alliance
05:29It may follow the smell
05:32Then Anwar would be impossible.
05:33Continue to take it seriously in a minority
05:37The end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022
05:40There are state elections in Malacca and Johor.
05:43UMNO won both matches by two-thirds.
05:45So UMNO felt that
05:46We can press our advantage and continue our attack.
05:48Forcing the then Prime Minister
05:50Ismail Sabri dissolved Parliament
05:52Ismail wanted to serve his entire term.
05:54However, due to internal pressure within UMNO...
05:56He had no choice but to disband.
05:57So if UMNO thinks it has won a landslide victory
06:00What does a great victory mean?
06:01It's not just two-thirds.
06:02A resounding victory is 80% or 90% likely.
06:04That is, going back to Florida before 2008.
06:08States dominated by political parties
06:09So if he can do it
06:11He would feel that he has the money to challenge others.
06:13But if he Maas presupposes
06:16For example, two-thirds fewer seats
06:18Then he might have no choice but to proceed with caution.
06:20Goldman Sachs reminds us that history has also served as a mirror for UMNO twice.
06:24Malacca won the state election in 2021 and 2022.
06:27UMNO's triumphant return
06:29However, the subsequent national elections were met with a backlash from reality.
06:32Will history repeat itself this time?
06:36Huang Jinfa believes that if UMNO really achieves an overwhelming victory in Johor...
06:40A key change may be occurring in the political situation.
06:43That would no longer be Anwar dominating the power dynamics in Malaysia.
06:48Instead, UMNO regained the right to make its move earlier.
06:51There is even room to decide
06:53When will politics accelerate?
06:55When will the showdown take place?
06:56But conversely
06:57If it's just a narrow victory
06:59Even losing points
07:00Then the story would be completely rewritten.
07:03Therefore, this maneuvering in Johor felt like a test.
07:06Testing whether UMNO is truly making a comeback
07:08Or is it just a temporary recovery?
07:10The test results will determine...
07:12Not just the next step for Johor
07:14It also represents the future political direction of the entire Malaysia.
07:17If this battle in Johor is UMNO's comeback...
07:20That would be Anwar's political storm.
07:2880 years ago
07:29UMNO was born on the steps of a palace in Johor.
07:3280 years later
07:33UMNO on the same land
07:35It might burn through if ignited.
07:36The fuse that ignited the entire unity government
07:38This is a referendum to revive UMNO.
07:41It is a stress test for Anwar's unity government.
07:43This is the 16th General Election
07:45A three-tiered game of whether to trigger the ignition switch prematurely.
07:49The outcome in Johor will be rewritten.
07:52The Power Equation of Putrajaya
07:55UMNO intends to use the weekly elections in Johor and Malacca
07:58Building momentum for the national election
08:00To prove that it is still the dominant force in Malay politics
08:02However, whether momentum can accumulate depends on the votes.
08:06Where the votes land depends on the will of the people.
08:09But where does the people's will truly lie?
08:11No one dared to make a guarantee.
08:12But one thing is certain.
08:15That is, when the Federation's allies are on the battlefield at the weekly level.
08:19Pointing guns at each other
08:20The moment the bullet flew
08:22No matter who gets hit
08:24The unity government has already been injured.
08:28Johor is rewriting the political landscape of Malaysia.
08:31Following the Johor election
08:32The countdown to the national election has begun.
08:35UMNO and WA are no longer
08:38Maintaining an ambiguous balance
08:40Instead, it was a head-on confrontation.
08:41It will have to be laid out sooner or later.
08:43The Johor election week is not a local battle.
08:46It is a rehearsal for national power.
08:47It is a political flashpoint.
08:49It is a moment of rift in the unity government.
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