00:00Torsten Schlock of Apollo agrees writing there is zero evidence of job losses because of AI non-farm payrolls for
00:06May could come in significantly higher than the around 90K expected. Torsten joins us for more. Torsten good morning good
00:13to see you. What are people getting wrong. Well I think what people are getting wrong is this whole notion
00:18that it's not only about individual companies it's what's happening at the macro level and at the macro level it's
00:23become much easier to open a business. You see this in the surveys from the census of how many businesses
00:28are created every week.
00:29is exploding higher. You're also seeing data from Stripe showing you the number of solo founders of new businesses is
00:35also exploding higher. So there's a lot of new businesses that are created. Yes some of them will probably only
00:40be one employer namely the founder but a lot of these businesses will also result in a lot more jobs.
00:46So it's not only about the displacement that there might come on some micro levels. It's much more about the
00:51aggregate where we have a significant increase in the number of new businesses that are formed. It doesn't help as
00:56you know that some of the individuals at the frontier of this massive purse are talking
00:59about a white collar washout when it comes to the labor force. What's your message to them. Well yeah this
01:05has started actually already in the spring of last year where there was a lot of people beginning to talk
01:10about well within one year's time we will already have layoffs and we'll already have entry level jobs that may
01:14no longer exist. But here we are with ADP on a weekly basis for the last eight weeks producing 30
01:1940,000 jobs every week. Jobless claims still being low.
01:22So ISM today over the last six months ISM has gone up. We're above 50. ISM is likely going to
01:27be also high today. And now we have some very strong tailwinds not only from the AI spending boom but
01:32also from the one big bill of a bill. This economy really is on fire in the sense that we
01:36both have strong growth and we also have upward pressures on inflation. And now we also have of course the
01:41ultimate risk that if AI does result in more job growth it will be really the miracle drug that both
01:47creates higher productivity and also creates higher job growth.
01:50That can be true at the same time that John's assertion can be true which is that white collar jobs
01:55can decline as proportion of overall jobs. If you look at the job growth and where it's come from it's
01:59construction it's manufacturing it's in health care it's in education it's not in finance it's not in media and media
02:05services. So how do you square those two ideas.
02:08Well if you look at also the unemployment rate so now we'll get more data on Friday. Look at the
02:11unemployment rate for people that are between 20 and 24 years old. That has exactly gone down in the last
02:16six months. Also telling you that is not the case that young people can't find a job. There's some issues
02:20around what type of job they can get. And yes maybe they may not be getting initially the job that
02:25they wanted. There may be something also about expectations for young people when it goes into that discussion. But the
02:29bottom line still really here is that at the end of the day young people are actually doing really well
02:33because the unemployment rate for young people is actually lower than where it was six months ago.
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