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00:00Well, I guess for starters, Donald Trump, all the polling shows is at his least popular that he's ever been.
00:07He is, you know, underwater on just about every measure you can look at, every poll you can look at,
00:13especially when it comes to some of the core issues that he ran on originally with the economy.
00:19And people really don't like his handling of the war in Iran.
00:23That said, what this shows is that his power among Republicans is as strong as ever.
00:29Right. If you want to win in a Republican primary, the way to do it is not by distancing yourself
00:36from Donald Trump.
00:37There's been some some talk among Republican strategists about approaches to the general election this year in the midterms and
00:47how closely a candidate wants to associate themselves with Donald Trump.
00:51Those are all, I think, still legitimate questions for a general election.
00:55But what we see here is that if you want to win in a primary, you've got to be really
01:00close to Trump.
01:01That's still just the way to get ahead in the Republican Party.
01:05But I'm wondering if that is short sighted.
01:08I mean, we talked to the chair of the RNC about this last weekend.
01:11Was it last weekend?
01:11It was a long week.
01:12I think it was just last weekend.
01:13It was last week.
01:14And we asked the same question.
01:15We had, you know, the poll numbers show that the president's policies on Iran, on the economy and Republicans confidence
01:21even in other Republicans on the economy is really waning.
01:24And we said, you know, is the tactic to distance yourself from those numbers?
01:28And he said, no, we are going to run fully into the Trump agenda.
01:32We believe this is the best administration in history.
01:34That may work in a primary.
01:36But is this going to hurt them?
01:37And are these soundbites going to get played again and again when these folks try to win a general?
01:41Yeah, I mean, I think that's that's a really open question.
01:44You know, obviously, in Louisiana, that's a very red state.
01:48It's not going to it's not going to hurt a candidate to be close to Donald Trump.
01:51But when we when we start talking about some of those swing districts and that we're going to see in
01:57the midterm, some of the swing states in the swing districts, then we'll really see that question put to the
02:03test.
02:03And if history is any guide, associating yourself very closely with an unpopular president who many Americans view as failing
02:12on the key issues is I don't think that's a winning strategy.
02:16So, you know, again, this is this is the conflict for Republicans.
02:22You know, how close do I have to get to Donald Trump in the primary?
02:27And then can I backtrack in the general?
02:31You know, we're going to have to see with some of these candidates.
02:33There have only been a few candidates still left in office who voted to impeach Donald Trump and are still
02:40around if you're a Republican.
02:41You know, one of them coming up is Susan Collins in Maine, who will have a competitive, a competitive general
02:47election race.
02:48And she's always kept Trump at arm's length.
02:51That's worked for her in her state of Maine.
02:55But we're going to see whether or not that brand can still exist in 2026.
03:02And Collins is concerned.
03:03I know you covered the hill.
03:05This is the phrase Susan Collins is concerned.
03:07Luke, gaze into your crystal ball and tell me what you see in terms of how you think Senator Cassidy
03:13is going to comport himself in the months ahead.
03:15I'm thinking of the way that Senator Tom Tillis has been kind of emboldened, speaking out more forcefully against the
03:20president and aspects of the president's agenda as he approaches his elective retirement from from the Senate.
03:26Should we expect the same kind of behavior from Senator Cassidy in light of what you heard there at the
03:30top of the quotes that we played from him speaking at that concession event last night?
03:35Yeah, I would think so.
03:36I mean, I think Cassidy's been constrained somewhat by having to pretend to be so close to Trump to try
03:42to to try to stay in office.
03:44I think, you know, he's one of these more old school Republicans from sort of the Mitt Romney strain of
03:50the party, from the George W. Bush strain of the party, where they don't they really actually don't like Donald
03:57Trump.
03:57They don't like what he stands for.
03:59They have to pretend they do because that's what the Republican base voters want.
04:04You know, I remember I was in the Capitol when that day when Bill Cassidy voted to impeach Donald Trump.
04:11There was a widespread sentiment among Republicans at the time that what had happened on January 6th was wrong and
04:18that Donald Trump bore a lot of responsibility for the events of that day.
04:22And I remember we were in a little scrum and asked him about it.
04:25And he said, I voted to convict Donald Trump because he's guilty like that.
04:29That's just what the facts say.
04:30So it wasn't there wasn't really a political consideration for him in that moment.
04:35And so I could expect similar bluntness from him in the coming months now that he doesn't have to put
04:42on this act that he is so close to Trump and loves Trump so much.
04:46I think I'll be free from that.
04:48And we could hear him talk, I think, more bluntly on a lot of issues.
04:52All right, Luke, hang with us, because I know you also covered this recent trip to China of the president.
04:57But we want to bring in Jen Judson.
04:59She's our Bloomberg News defense reporter based out of D.C.
05:02Jen, we're going to kick it over to you because, you know, Trump is back from this Asia trip.
05:06And the big thing that is the outlier now is whether or not he's going to approve this Taiwan arms
05:12deal.
05:12This was a big focus.
05:13We've got the president talking about it.
05:15We're going to play it for you.
05:19I think.
05:21We're not looking to have wars.
05:23And if you kept it the way it is, I think China is going to be OK with that.
05:28But we're not looking to have somebody say, let's go independent because the United States is backing us.
05:33So President Xi probably liked that you haven't approved the weapons to Taiwan.
05:38I would say like is maybe too strong a word because he thinks I could do it with just the
05:43signing of my signature,
05:45unlike Biden, who couldn't sign his signature.
05:49No, I'm holding that in abeyance.
05:51And it depends on China.
05:53It depends.
05:53It's a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly.
05:57So obviously that's the president sitting down with Fox News, Brett Baer, using that Taiwan arms package as a negotiating
06:03chip.
06:03Jen, what's your take on that?
06:05And does that play into China's hands trying to get more control or at least more apathy from the U
06:12.S. when it comes to the issue on Taiwan?
06:14Yeah.
06:14You know, I think that this really shows unclear intentions, you know, from Donald Trump here for a major pending
06:23Taiwan arms package.
06:25Just a little bit of background, the admin already approved a major package for Taiwan that's worth roughly $11 billion
06:34that delivery could slow.
06:37But there's another proposed package that's reportedly around $14 billion that now appears politically sensitive, you know, after Xi Jinping
06:46warned Trump that support to Taiwan in this way could lead to clashes and conflict.
06:52So we're not getting a lot of clarity on the direction that Trump may go with this arms deal.
06:58Pick up on this, if you would, Luke.
07:00I'm curious the degree to which you felt this kind of animating or weaving through the conversations that were happening
07:05over the course of that trick.
07:06I think Christine and I were both surprised after there was that initial readout from that meeting with President Xi
07:11in which we learned he spoke quite forcefully about the Taiwan issue.
07:14Yeah, they came in the middle of the meeting.
07:15In the middle of the meeting and took some time before we saw a U.S. response.
07:19Pull back, if you would, Luke, and just put that into some broader context.
07:22The way in which the president is talking about Taiwan is radically different than we've seen presidents talk about it
07:27in the past.
07:28Has this historically been the case?
07:30Yeah, absolutely.
07:31I just got back from Beijing, so apologies if I'm a little jet-lagged.
07:36But, look, each of these men came into their meeting with a specific goal.
07:43Xi was extremely focused on Taiwan.
07:45It was essentially the first thing that came out of their mouths when the Chinese put out a readout after
07:53the private meeting.
07:54They basically said, if you guys drop the Taiwan issue, if you stop supporting them, then we can be friends.
08:02And if you don't, we are destined for a conflict.
08:07And it almost sounded like a military conflict the way they were talking about it.
08:11But Trump came into the meeting all about business deals.
08:15He brought 14 to 18 of America's business executives with him.
08:22All he talked about was friendship and deals and trying to make money.
08:25And so you have two people with extremely different strategies.
08:29Trump, in all of his comments afterwards, didn't care much about Taiwan.
08:33He talked about how far away it is from us and, you know, it's not really on the agenda of
08:40the American people.
08:41But this was the focus for China.
08:44And so it does sound like based on Donald Trump's rhetoric after this meeting that President Xi of China really
08:50got through to him
08:51and that he is breaking with, you know, the traditional American foreign policy of decades,
08:57which is to support this little democracy right by China against an autocracy.
09:03So, you know, it seemed that Donald Trump was impressed with President Xi, liked what he said about Taiwan,
09:09and is now having second thoughts about America's support.
09:13Jen, I want to pick up on something that Luke mentioned, which was going to be my next question anyway,
09:17which is President Trump focusing on the fact that it's thousands of miles away
09:21and just seems really apathetic of even the idea of engaging this conflict.
09:25This comes after we've got the USS Ford returning after 11 months' deployment.
09:29They did the Maduro raid. They did the Mideast.
09:32There's rumors and rumblings that Trump is now setting his sights on Cuba.
09:35What is the military's bandwidth and operational capacity to even get engaged in a conflict in Taiwan at this point,
09:41if that were even something the president wanted to do, which that's very much up in the air?
09:46You know, I think that's the big question, you know, and I think in terms of handling the arms packages,
09:52what that signals about the U.S. commitment to deterrence in the U.S. and the Indo-Pacific region for
09:58the U.S.,
09:59it really calls into question that, you know, I think one of the things China is watching when it comes
10:06to, say,
10:07the U.S.'s involvement in the Middle East right now,
10:09I would imagine that from Beijing's perspective, every U.S. carrier group tied down in the Gulf is one less
10:17source of pressure near Taiwan.
10:19Ford came back from an 11-month deployment.
10:22That is the most advanced U.S. aircraft carrier that we have.
10:26It needs some time in port.
10:28It had a fire on board.
10:30It had plumbing issues that, you know, kind of calls into question some of the readiness of how long can
10:36these carriers really be deployed.
10:39And, you know, this one was in two different theaters.
10:43It was in the Caribbean as well as in the Gulf.
10:45So a very active deployment.
10:48So, you know, I would say that if you talk to the U.S. military right now,
10:52they would say that they are absolutely positioned and aligned to deal with China and the Indo-Pacific at the
11:00moment.
11:01But, of course, this came up quite a bit on Capitol Hill during hearings where the Secretary of War, Pete
11:09Hegseth,
11:09and General Cain testified about, you know, munitions stockpiles.
11:14There was a lot of questions from lawmakers about whether they could manage all of the various activities, wars in
11:24Iran,
11:25as well as position in the Indo-Pacific based on how we're expending munitions in this current war.
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