00:00Anna Wong she is chief U.S. economist over at Bloomberg Economics. And Anna just set the scene for us.
00:06Lay out your expectations because it feels like we've been in a low fire low higher sort of economy for
00:12a while now. Are we going to see any signs of that changing? I think we are slowly pivoting to
00:20it from low higher low fire to increase higher and also a tick up and firing as well. So basically
00:28more churn in the
00:29labor market. We are expecting a very solid print next Friday. We have ninety five thousand with potential for upside
00:39surprise. We have unemployment rate steady at four point three percent. And I think also the Jolts data job openings
00:47data next week will show a pickup and job openings as well as quitting and firing as well. So it
00:55is a it will be an interesting week for jobs. Absolutely.
00:59So maybe some more churn picking up in the labor market sort of couch that together with what we're getting
01:05from the inflationary front. Of course, we know that price pressures have been coming back, have been persistent.
01:11All of this creates a really interesting picture for Kevin Warsh to walk into on June 17th. What do you
01:17think that this is going to add to that picture that the Fed is trying to confront?
01:22Yeah. Yeah. So typically the inflation picture leads to jobs picture. And what we are seeing on the inflation side
01:29is that a lot of the petrochemical and energy sector and even logistics and freight sectors are benefiting from the
01:38increase in oil price.
01:39And that's why in the jobs report. And that's why in the jobs report. And in April we saw a
01:43huge surge in logistics hiring and we are looking in next Friday's report to see a continued very solid print
01:52to the logistics sector.
01:54And typically in May there are three sectors that increase that drive hiring. That's logistics and leisure and hospitality ahead
02:03of the World Cup as well as construction.
02:05But I think what Kevin Warsh will also experience is that because of the higher bond yields since the Iran
02:13war, a 50 bips increase in long term yield, it actually is already dampening the construction sector and putting downward
02:19pressure on housing prices.
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