00:00So, Tyler, what do we know about this agreement?
00:03Well, Matt, at this point, Axios is reporting that this would be a 60-day memorandum of
00:08understanding, which does match up with previous reporting that the administration has been
00:12pursuing a phased approach where we would see this extension of the ceasefire, and then that
00:17would be followed by more formalized discussions around any potential curves to Iran's nuclear
00:23program. Yesterday in the cabinet room, President Trump said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz
00:28would be prioritized, which appears to match with this reporting that states that during
00:33this 60-day memorandum of understanding, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would
00:39be, quote, unrestricted, with U.S. officials saying that this means no tolls, no harassment,
00:44and that Iran will ultimately have to remove mines that it has laid in that waterway within
00:50the first 30 days of the agreement. The reporting goes on to say that the U.S. naval blockade
00:55will be lifted. We know that this has been part of these ongoing discussions, but also
00:59adds that as part of this, it will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear
01:04weapon. Just for context here, of course, I'm not totally clear how significant that part
01:09of this is, considering that Iran's public negotiating stance has long been that they
01:14are not trying to pursue a nuclear weapon, despite Western intelligence assessments to the
01:18contrary. Importantly, though, it says that the first issue to be prioritized in these negotiations
01:24will be what happens to that stockpile of highly enriched uranium. And Matt, the reporting does end
01:30with this, that the U.S. will commit to discuss sanctions release of relief and the release of
01:36Iran's frozen assets. I was in the cabinet room yesterday and asked President Trump what sort of
01:41sanctions relief the U.S. would be looking at. I asked him specifically about whether the U.S. would
01:46lift sanctions related to Iranian crude, and he told me yesterday that they are not having those
01:51discussions until Iran, quote, starts behaving correctly.
01:55Well, maybe this is correct behavior. I mean, Iran has been, as you point out, they've always said
02:01they won't pursue a nuclear weapon. Whether or not you believe that, as many don't, doesn't change the
02:09fact that this is nothing new. They have been asking not only for sanctions relief, but also for
02:15reparations, which they can call it reparations, and then we can say, well, it's aid. Is that likely to
02:21happen, Tyler?
02:23Well, we're seeing as part of this reporting from Axios that this memorandum of understanding would
02:28also include discussion of some sort of mechanisms for Iran to start receiving goods and humanitarian
02:34aid. At this point, we haven't gotten formal confirmation from the White House, and we also haven't gotten
02:38confirmation from Iran, because you will recall just yesterday, Iranian state media had reported that
02:43they received a draft of the memorandum of understanding, and the White House came out and
02:48said that's absolutely not true. Some of that reporting does include what we are seeing here
02:53today, that the strait would be prioritized to be reopened, and the U.S. would lift its naval blockade.
02:58But the differences here between the versions is that we know that Iran has been trying to maintain
03:02its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said yesterday that that's essentially going to be a
03:08non-starter, of course, for the U.S., and that no country can have control over the strait. But you're
03:13right to bring up this issue of war reparations or payments related to damages, because it just
03:18goes to show that there is a long list of sticking points that we still need to see clarity on,
03:24including when it comes to Iran's support for proxy militia groups, for example, something that
03:28the U.S. has been pushing for to be included in a deal. So perhaps this is some optimism here
03:34that
03:34there has been diplomatic progress, because just yesterday, President Trump said that he wasn't
03:39satisfied yet with how the negotiations were going. Yesterday in that press conference,
03:44President Trump again lambasting the Obama-era agreement, the JCPOA. What can this president
03:53get that's better or different than the JCPOA? It seems that the focus needs to be on what the
04:00moratorium on uranium enrichment would ultimately look like. This administration has previously said
04:06that it is calling for a permanent moratorium, though, Matt, we know that that would probably
04:10be a difficult task to get over the finish line in any sort of a finalized agreement. But I would
04:16say that that's really been where a lot of the focus and push has been on in terms of what
04:20could
04:21come out differently from what we have seen from the prior administration. We also have to talk about
04:27what happens to the stockpile of highly enriched uranium after President Trump maintained that the U.S.
04:33would like to take it out of the country, dilute it. Whereas we're seeing perhaps the idea of a
04:38third party country come in to the picture. And that may be something that Iran is a little bit
04:43more amenable to. But yesterday he was asked about how he felt about maybe China or Russia taking that
04:48stockpile. And he didn't seem to indicate he was too happy with that idea as well. One of the biggest
04:53sticking points on the JCPOA or the biggest complaints was that the IAEA inspectors couldn't
05:02immediately get into any site they wanted to at the drop of a hat. Is that something we've heard
05:08the president mentioned at all lately? Because it seems that could be a beneficial add from the
05:16U.S. side to JCPOA part two. That's a really good point. At this point,
05:22though, we haven't really heard that much of a conversation, at least from White House officials,
05:27when it comes to what this would ultimately look like. Though I'm sure behind the scenes,
05:30they are discussing some of those more specific details on potential curbs. But so far,
05:34the conversation has really been about this phased approach, that you need to prioritize
05:38reopening the strait, lifting that naval blockade, and then some of those other things that may come
05:43with it, like an unfreezing of at least a portion of Iranian assets. And then we're going to have to
05:48get into the idea of what those potential curbs on the nuclear program look like. You even had the
05:53U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, say, look, this is going to take time to hammer out these details
05:58that you're floating here right now. But no doubt this is going to be something that the U.S. would
06:03probably be interested in, considering that we've repeatedly heard President Trump say that they've
06:07been monitoring these sites that he claims were obliterated during the June, last June's efforts
06:14during Operation Midnight Hammer at those nuclear sites. We know that the U.S. has been watching these
06:19closely, at least from satellite imagery. So I would expect inspector and the future of what
06:26inspections look like would be incorporated into a final deal.
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