क्या Market Bull Run के लिए तैयार है_ _ Nifty & Bank Nifty Analysis _ Stock Market Outlook

Nivesh Manthan

आज के इस खास एपिसोड में Somesh Kumar ने बताया कि कैसे Brent Crude, Hormuz Strait और Global War Tension भारतीय बाजार की दिशा तय कर सकते हैं। क्या Nifty 24,600 पार करेगा? क्या Midcap और Microcap में आने वाली है बड़ी Rally? क्या Bank Nifty बनेगा अगला Market Leader?  वीडियो में जानिए: ✅ Nifty के महत्वपूर्ण Levels ✅ Bank Nifty की बड़ी Strategy ✅ Midcap & Smallcap में Opportunity ✅ Microcap Stocks पर बड़ा Analysis ✅ RBI Rate Cut/Hike का असर ✅ IT Sector में Recovery आएगी? ✅ Brent Crude और Global Market संकेत  अगर आप Trading, Investing, Nifty Prediction, Stock Market Analysis और Long Term Wealth Creation में रुचि रखते हैं, तो यह वीडियो मिस मत कीजिए।  #StockMarket #Nifty50 #BankNifty #SomeshKumar #StockMarketIndia  📌 Nivesh Manthan — Your Investment Partner!  शेयर बाजार और म्यूचुअल फंड्स की आसान भाषा में समझ चाहते हैं? यहाँ पाएँ — 📈 Latest Market Updates 📊 Nifty–Bank Nifty Analysis 📚 Technical & Fundamental Insights 💡 Smart Investing Tips  🎓 Paise Ki Paathshaala – Investor Education Program  Market ko samajhna ab hua aur bhi aasan! 👉 Telegram: https://t.me/NiveshManthanAdive  👉 Arattai App: https://aratt.ai/@niveshmanthan  🎙️ Expert Guidance  Bazaar vishleshak ke saath samjhiye market ki har chal, trend aur sahi investment opportunities.  📺 Subscribe Now – Apne financial goals ko reality banaiye!  📌 Daily Updates: Follow Us  🔵 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/niveshmanthan  🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/sharemanthan  📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/niveshmanthan_/  🌐 Visit Our Websites  https://www.niveshmanthan.in/  https://www.sharemanthan.in/  शेयर बाजार में निवेश और ट्रेडिंग जोखिम के अधीन होते हैं। सही जानकारी, उचित विश्लेषण और डिसिप्लिन के बिना लिए गए निर्णय नुकसान का कारण बन सकते हैं। इसी उद्देश्य से हम आपके लिए आयोजित कर रहे हैं Stock Market Weekly Analysis Webinar, जहाँ बाजार की चाल को शैक्षिक (Educational) उद्देश्य से समझाया जाएगा।  यह पूरी तरह मार्केट अवेयरनेस और नॉलेज शेयरिंग के लिए है। इसमें दी जाने वाली जानकारी किसी भी प्रकार की Buy/Sell/Hold Recommendation, Assured Return, या Investment Advice नहीं होगी।

Transcript

00:00Hello, I am Rajeev and along with Chahe's agility, I have with me Shumesh Kimar Shumesh's and many more.

00:05Now today's market is very confusing, Nishi Munfir is supporting Banksafety in Bugao Mitcap

00:16Its left

00:29If it is lying somewhere, what are the signs coming out, but I think that its bigger sign is

00:35Now you have to look back at the old Bairav meter which we were discussing, what is the bent crucible?

00:42He is saying that right now this Karkam Pij Yes

00:59If this is happening then if this thing really happens that whatever news comes with everyone

01:06We really have to connect, it has happened in the settlements, otherwise all these confusions will come back again.

01:12keeping it and drinking all these kashmakak that if you

01:18If you consider all four to be 60, then you are assuming that this is another media for the eyes and another media in that

01:40Is

01:40So then I say that if we remain silent then how much will his teeth be, it will be more.

01:47The big question becomes

01:48Correct and there is a media called tooth social where there is nothing tooth so since you said that

01:55Iran's national media may have something to say about Brent showing a bit of cool off.

02:01But Iran also has internal contradictions.

02:04The story there is that sometimes the Foreign Minister says something and sometimes the GC people say something after that.

02:10Some people stop him and ask where he came from and what he said, then there too a whole

02:16We have seen all this before

02:21I completely take your point, so let's go back to our indicator, which we trust.

02:27We can do this and the most important thing in that will be Brent Cood, so actually since I am in travel here, so our last

02:36of the show

02:37I had not seen the data before, but suddenly I saw the data and the future behaviour of Brent crude from Monday

02:45This is about the future, it is telling that a double top has happened and correction is taking place in crude.

02:51Meaning, no matter how much anyone shouts, the market

03:00This will be a good direction, a good indication for us. When you are saying double top, then which are the two tops?

03:06So let us see, this one is of 30th March and then after that this one is of 30th April, correct?

03:13Next year will be made, not this year.

03:27If this happens then it means that hopes are raised and then they are dashed again. If this is a double top then I

03:38So I would expect this to be where the breakout started and it started just the same day

03:44Iran was attacked and after that it has come back.

03:57If we do it then that will happen at last, it will happen now, it is a matter that it will happen next

04:06It should be done in a month or two, then we cannot say how much bread is there because the situation is very grave.

04:14Crude will cool off I feel like when b

04:27How much flow of vile is starting, at least I am saying this, which you have spread structurally

04:34Yesterday I was talking to an expert who is a big expert in the oil and gas market and he said

04:40They were hoping that the fighting would end today.

04:43So it will take you five to five months for the oil market to settle down.

04:49Razi ji, it is like this that if you keep any person on the bet for three months, his legs will break.

04:56Then it will get jammed

04:58You won't be able to walk straight away, you will have to practice to walk, it will take some time and then it will become such that

05:14What I think is that

05:16Kurud's trajectory will be in the range of 93 to 88 for now and from there, sorry, I am saying 93.

05:24Sorry this gave me a wrong number it would be like this 100 100 of the rent in the range of 100 to 88

05:33a little bit in the range of 88 to 90

05:36If consolidation happens, then what we are seeing now is that the rent is coming down, this is due to these anticipations.

05:45You can make as much noise as you want, it will teach you how to do it, so I will evaluate it accordingly and

05:55I think it's below 88.

06:06But Brent should stay in this range for three to six months, it should stay below 85-86.

06:14You shouldn't go into it, but you should discuss the best thing you've come up with, which the market will read.

06:22months hence which will be crude your 70 dollar way

06:36This is all for now, understand that Brent is saying that things

06:44will be fine

06:46So Brent crude today is indicating that our market may now take a positive direction.

06:53But now let's talk about how far that cosmological direction will be.

06:57What will be the condition of our Sensex Nifty, so here we saw that today there was a little increase in large cap.

07:06It has been a supportive affair, there has not been much fuss.

07:08The candles are also very small, if you look at today's candles it seems as if the market is completely in a state of disarray.

07:15been working today since

07:19At least this is visible in large caps. I believe this market has formed this structure.

07:26It's been a boom

07:28Now we will discuss both this and the bank. Due to this, a half dip may be found.

07:37Is

07:37But this structure is being built.

07:39You have made it correct

07:41He will go there and fight

07:43Bildu will struggle

07:45And you make one on top of it.

07:47red streak

07:49these dug

07:50Nifty Mahashay has dug a hole

07:52200 er movie abrez hai

07:53Yes, these two levels

07:57You

07:58bookmark it

08:00will what

08:01There's going to be a struggle here

08:04and in whatever month

08:06mind you, in whatever mood

08:09To you

08:10That's above the 25,000 level.

08:12got it close

08:13Why the month, I'll explain.

08:15Okay, listen carefully.

08:16to this chaise

08:17In whatever month you

08:20Close above 25,000

08:22started meeting

08:24You are the first assumption

08:26It will take that as

08:28happened in mid cap

08:29Such a game will be played in Nipti

08:32in the month in which

08:34Won't happen in a month

08:36So if we assume that

08:38If it happens within a month then something else

08:39We will discuss at the level

08:42But whichever

08:43if and when it doesn't happen in June

08:45which mid cap game

08:46Mid cap game means from where do you think the game starts?

08:51mid cap

08:52You can recover your mid-cap.

08:53You did not say that the game happened like this in mid cap.

08:55If the same thing happens in Nifty then that

08:57Which game will you replicate here?

08:59Look, you can see a big long red candle in the mid cap.

09:04It looks like this is it

09:06Bus

09:06This is the case with the main game.

09:10now here

09:20So let's rewind our conversation a bit.

09:24This is what I had explained that once a new high has been formed, then give it total respect mid cap.

09:31To

09:31No matter how much fear there is, the mid-cap index is not going to move above seventy thousand, perhaps even 2000 points.

09:38Is

09:38In conclusion, what should we conclude in Nifty that if it crosses 25,000 then after that a new high will be achieved in this also.

09:43This will be done, if possible, make it weekly.

09:54Okay, now in this weekly you have two big red candles in which you can buy on the second last candle.

10:03go away

10:05Yes, we want to talk about them, no, yes, no, and right, come right, come, just this wall should tell us about this.

10:16The high is 24,600

10:18Its actual high level is 24,600, right? That will be the same. We will give it a little benefit of doubt.

10:27Which is a sorry, your supply zone.

10:32From here it will be clear to you that this Nifty will pull you from 25,000 to 25

10:40Will be priced in the range of Rs 500

10:42This range itself tells you that whoever is watching from a close above 24,600

10:49Let us assume that

10:51That your Nifty will come in the range of 25,000 to 25,500 in any month and according to me

10:58If Hormuz opens, it could be June.

11:15The strategic reserves of the big economies are being used, which may not sustain beyond June.

11:21The World Bank says that we can do this

11:24So I read the same indicator, so how do we proceed according to that indicator?

11:30So the first thing is, just accept this, I am giving you three things.

11:36Point No.1 You have a marker of 23,500

11:49If Nifty does not close below this then you can consider it as default.

11:56That this Nifty will try to come in the range of 24,400 to 600

12:04You can accept this first one comfortably because I am assuming that this direction has gone up.

12:11There is a little gap in Nifty Bank which we will discuss in the second, there is a little gap in it.

12:15So the first thing is that all these traders or those who want to understand their direction

12:22The first thing to understand is that if Nifty is not closing below 23,500

12:27So Nifty's plan is to go into the range of 24,400 to 24,600 once.

12:35the mind is

12:37This is where another round of struggle will begin.

12:42After that struggle, we will be able to decide whether the fight should start for the range of Rs 25,000-25,500.

12:52will be

12:53So, if you want to understand these three things very well, the direction of Nifty, the direction of the market, or trading

13:00Is

13:00They should focus on these numbers.

13:02First focus on 23,500

13:06So one thing we want to establish here

13:09This market direction has turned positive

13:12provided 23,500 is not challenged on a closing basis

13:19This is the first thing we establish.

13:21The second thing we establish

13:24If our hypothesis is correct,

13:28So nifty will try to hit 23,400 to 23,600

13:35some deviations are possible

13:38The third thing we will establish

13:40That is, we will try to understand the struggle in the range of Rs 23,000, Rs 24,600 to Rs 400.

13:47and then we'll establish what could be

13:50Is Nifty getting ready for the range of 25,000 to 25,500?

13:57We establish these three things.

14:00So the direction was established

14:02Established a struggle zone

14:04And we have also established how to do further evaluation.

14:11So this is the story of Nifty 50 from the large cap perspective.

14:16But we are already seeing momentum building in the mid-cap space.

14:20So now if this move continues in mid cap

14:27So what kind of expectations are you carrying?

14:30Or if nifty 50 is turning positive

14:46I want more people to understand this.

14:50despite all the risk, despite the possibility of facing criticism

14:57Why am I explaining this to you before the war begins?

15:02That the upcoming case is in mid or small cap.

15:05Keep in mind that I did not give up this hope even at that time.

15:10At a time when there was no hope at all, I was told that time would tell.

15:16If I was wrong then Nifty mid cap has made a new high and what is this indication?

15:22Understand this, this is an indication that real money is not yours here either.

15:27real money as per the index configuration by these exchanges

15:35You'll laugh about real money being made in Nifty Microcap Index stocks.

15:41I will do small cap later but the indication it is giving will fuel the rally.

15:47In the coming year and I will tell you year after year

15:52You may say that you are telling me a long story, time will prove everything I say.

15:58I have already done my first mid cap, next year will be your fiery rally.

16:02in microcap

16:03micro cap 100 crore lali company I am not saying as per the index configuration which is of nifty micro cap

16:10Is

16:10So you understand what all I had to break down in the past to understand all this.

16:17A new high has been made in Nifty Man Mid Cap and I have told you.

16:23Before Modi ji conducts the next election, you will find the mid cap index above one level.

16:31Now you can probably believe me because I proved this even in such an adverse situation.

16:37your point

16:37So consider the mid-cap index as an opportunity because there is bound to be volatility here.

16:48You and I are no one to stop this, but equity itself means volatility.

16:56If it works then it is fine, if it does not work then you can understand that the mid cap index will be seventy thousand and this year it will be mine

17:04As such

17:04This is an estimate, now no one will buy the mid-cap index here, otherwise we will have to go inside it.

17:14It is a very big segment and you can say in that too

17:19You will have to look at micro cap, that is, if you are not even small cap, then right now we will discuss mid cap.

17:25have been

17:25There are many big companies in mid cap as well which are quite huge. We have just discussed small cap.

17:31No, and you are ahead of him.

17:32Microcaps have reached the point that the real opportunity for an investor is in microcaps.

17:42but first

18:12Now, do you have any indices to track in microcap? This is not Nifty.

18:20There is a Microcap 250 index, right? Let's look at that as well. There are 200 stocks in it, and right now I

18:28As far as I feel

18:30In the last four days, if I remember correctly, I have seen the microcap indices move higher.

18:35If you look in front of you, you will see that small caps have been invested and micro caps have been invested, you will see both of them the same.

18:44If the game is here then catch that game

19:00If you buy small caps, your portfolio may fall by 30-40%.

19:06Development will not happen by stopping, the impact there is very high, so if you increase the impact by 30-40 percent

19:12Stocks I'm calling potential downside

19:29If we do, then the decision is whether you can afford to take the risk of 30% or not if we are in the risk cap.

19:36If we talk about 10% risk, then in mid-cap we talk about 20% risk.

19:41It is said that there is a risk of 30% in small cap and even 40% in micro, why is it not so?

19:47Microcap companies go bust

19:50That is because there is a liquidity issue and when margin calls are triggered

19:56And when the basket falls, and when the basket falls, there is no level anymore.

20:01I pulled everything out and with a lot of courage I told you that the bottom has been formed in March.

20:09If he had agreed even a little or you had kept sitting there clinging to him like that,

20:15is on his chair

20:17See, Shomesh ji, tell me something about where to look for portfolios in small caps and micro caps.

20:24will point out

20:25Or should I go and buy a Nifty Small Cap Index Fund?

20:27Buying this is also a good thing, there is nothing wrong in it Rajuji, but if we have to choose our own things then

20:38See what happened from this quarter's results.

20:41Despite all the doubts, until your consumption has better performance

20:49Your banks have struggled and there are problems due to that and I still want to work in a public sector bank.

20:55Confidence is not coming but Sam region

20:58Whatever you write with your domestic and disposable income, your results have been very good.

21:07Where is the disruption? There is disruption in the place where oil comes as input and where forex is negative.

21:17The impact occurs where exports were higher.

21:21In such places, the issue of logistics and high input cost arose, but after that, within India

21:29Is

21:30If I say that things have gone very well there, then what is it to me, it is my habit that

21:38I always go the route

21:40And I have come to the root that the government is the root, nothing happens by what you and I say.

21:47Is

21:47Sarkar is the root and Sarkar has decided that c plus i plus g plus x minus m which we

21:54explain to you

21:56In that, the government has chosen the liver which is the consumption since last year.

22:02On the basis of which we want to bring domestic demands and many things come under it.

22:09Credit growth, world growth, everything happens when the owners want consumption to continue.

22:15So don't doubt it, don't challenge it and consumption is a very important thing.

22:21To understand it, we cannot discuss the name of the stock.

22:26But you can definitely understand that the money in your pocket is going to increase.

22:32So what mischief will you do? Go and search for it, you will find many things.

22:37So it is always my habit to go to root and unless proven wrong

22:42I will not change that thing, it went wrong, we will go on another path, but you tell me from last year till now

22:49Till now I have caught it and it has ripened, it is the same thing, hold it now, the fruit will come next year and the year after that.

22:55You will get good food

23:00So look for opportunities in small caps, micro caps and hence stay tuned to the bank.

23:09It will be necessary, but if he does not want to take the risk of self-selection of stocks, then he can go through index funds.

23:17If you are a Nefte smt.

23:26Funds have made big things easy, you can do small things through active funds, you can invest money in funds through this.

23:34As the index moves, so will your money, which will also be beneficial if you want to make more on active management.

23:47If so, he is

23:48If you just want to follow the index, then let's come to banking. What do we need to know about banking today?

23:55Bank shares were seen to be under pressure due to the surge. Why was this so? Generally speaking, when your market

24:05Not too eager to die

24:18The way the bank index is trending there are high chances but the previous high will be retested now

24:27has high chances

24:29When the provided starts closing above 56,000, first premise and second, before that, this is what you need to keep in mind.

24:44That a gap is formed in the range of 54,100

24:48This is preventing me from taking a clear-cut decision because I read the data.

24:55So until the data is complete I can't tell you but I will do a little confirmatory test on it

25:01It takes a while to pass

25:04This remains a hitch because it's not a gap I'm considering as a high-momentum gap.

25:13So what happens is that all these things go away and I don't care much about this.

25:20The worry is that the pattern that you have before this, this whole pattern

25:29The bank index has been very confused in that range, so when a person is already confused and

25:38If one reaches that zone again from somewhere, then there is confusion somewhere which remains in history.

25:43It's already bothering you

25:46Therefore, I will not be able to take a clear decision, but I will definitely say one thing, if it comes down too, then you

25:55Let us assume that the bank index does not close below 53,000.

26:02One day or the other, it will also cross 56,000 and try to test the top of 57,000 plus.

26:13will try

26:14And maybe this will become once again the main driver for Nifty. This bank has to take Nifty forward and

26:22Then the story reached there.

26:25So the story of the previous high will come true it will just be the matter of time that's all

26:33The next big trigger for the banking sector would be that RBI policy is far away from here.

26:39Not there.

26:40So what will happen in that and we also received a question in this regard from Apatab Ahmat ji.

26:45That with your help will RBI increase the interest rates if this and the news that I revealed turns out to be true and God

26:54If it happens then in such a situation, the apprehensions that are there today are looking into the question whether

27:02RBI may also consider raising rates now.

27:14There are apprehensions in people's minds about what will happen if the rates increase, but what if Hermes opens?

27:19RBI will again go into wait and watch pause mode

27:25My understanding is that Rajiv ji, RBI should wait till June.

27:33Whether they do it or not, they have better data, I will explain the logic to you.

27:39Just in case Hermes opened and oil flooded the market, so what's the fuss about?

27:48If crude is Brent crude, then the problem is over, then why do you need to hurry?

27:56The market itself is full adjusted, so I would like to think that my thinking would be that

28:05Even at the cost of inflation, even at the cost of potential inflation, one should not rush.

28:16Because once the central bank takes action, it will spread to the entire economy.

28:22And then the government's focus on consumption and credit growth will somewhere dampen the sentiment.

28:31I would assume that they may have remained silent on the policy.

28:36But if things don't improve in June, then in the next policy you can consider it a done deal that the rates will increase.

28:43So this is how I understand it

28:47But at the same time, the March appeal of Aarve is coming and now this May is also about to end.

28:52The inflationary pressure that you have been facing for three months will also be a burden.

29:00It is like this, Rajiv ji, that a big wave came and immediately burst and went away, if that

29:06If the wave remains then there is no option but just because a wave has come you can work in it and move ahead.

29:13damage the thing

29:17When you understand that the wave will come and go, then let's think a little bit.

29:22But if this problem persists till June, then there is no need to inform after that.

29:27Because on the other hand, there is immense pressure on RBI to strengthen the growth.

29:34GDP is about to come, that too has to be countered.

29:39Look, Raji ji, one thing is that Donald Trump respected all the efforts of the entire India which were made last year.

29:46It has been rubbished, now at least we can take a leap on it.

29:51So let's have some patience, one person will destroy everything that they call our junk.

29:58tax us

29:59A lot of effort has been put into liquidity last year, everything has been taken care of in one go.

30:05Vikas has gone, our import bill is very high and I think Arbia will solve this problem.

30:12God knows what's going on in their minds.

30:26Everyone knows that these dogs are barking at each other, but they also know that they bite.

30:31You will get to know Shahiye and now let's take a look at the IT sector, which is around 28-900 on the levels

30:44There was some hope of going there, but I am afraid to go there too.

30:49You have scolded him so much that he doesn't even dare to get up now.

30:57I am no more, in my career of five years, I have been kicked so much that I am not affected by prejudice.

31:03I am not afraid until I understand what the matter is.

31:18The sector is in weak hands by itself but there is one thing called market tailwind and it should never be ignored.

31:28I have been explaining to you for ages that even after the US NASDAQ rose, our

31:36Our index will run at half of that of IT, but it will not run due to AI, that is a different matter.

31:44But �

31:45That is what I explained, so you should understand the tailwind if Nifty starts recovering because of the bank.

31:54The sentiment will improve and when the sentiment improves, even a rotten tomato can be made into a vegetable.

32:02So understand this thing that even if there is a rotten tomato in the vegetable in this war at Nifty IT index

32:08I can read it, but I'm making a really nice sandwich right now. I'm going to compete with the panty day moving average below.

32:17not ready for how many days

32:18It's been one, two, three, four, five, plus trading days, just supporting the 50-day moving average.

32:25I'm making do, but I don't have the courage to go above the 50-day moving average.

32:30Touch it where you placed the cursor.

32:34Keep in mind, everything has a strategy, and never be dependent on the market or the index.

32:42We don't create a ruckus, we listen to whatever is said with love, if that level turns out to be what I understood you to be.

32:48I am doing this, even if the index itself is skeletal, the second one is dragging it by hand.

32:57You must have seen, if there is no petrol in one auto, then the other auto driver pushes it forward by charging money.

33:03So the petrol in the market can push the IT index, that is why I say multi-factor.

33:10Analysis should be done from the model itself, either people make noise, you should know a few days ago, I...

33:16I have proved Rajyogi again and again, what is this analysis, the name is not known, the one who

33:26You are on 5 wave, Elliot wave, I have been saying this repeatedly on your channel since before 2020.

33:35Yes, stop looking at this Elliot wave in isolation, which I don't know what an Elliot wave is, but the more

33:42Understood the primary, secondary trend, the entire market dynamics has changed, you will have to take a multi-factor model, you

33:52I'm telling you in this market in March, I've heard, I've heard people, I'm afraid

33:58we are heading for 20,000, I suspect we are heading for 20,000, I suspect 18,000 is possible,

34:07It bothers me that you

34:10You are not keeping your things concurrent, and in today's market you have to keep fundamental, technical, what I call,

34:20In which you will have to do analysis keeping in mind the general economic conditions, and therefore, give IT index up to 24,500

34:31He is in a position to leave, I will not say no to him,

34:35If it gets a market tailwind, then with the petrol of the market it will also go a little above the 200 EMA, or the red one.

34:43The Pako stick will go till there, provided it sustains above Rs 30,000,

34:48So we'll wait and see if it happens on this jar or not,

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