00:00Pakatan Harapan is likely to face an uphill battle in the Nagari-Sumbilan state election if it contests independently,
00:08with analysts saying the coalition may struggle to replicate past successes.
00:12Asro Hadi Abdul-Hasani, an associate vice president at the Asia Group, said PH's strong showing at the 2023 state
00:20polls
00:21was achieved through cooperation with Barisan Nasional, which helped reduce vote splitting in Malay majority seats.
00:27He said without BN, PH would likely retain its advantage in Chinese majority, urban and mixed seats.
00:34But Malay majority and marginal mixed constituencies would become far more competitive,
00:40especially in three-cornered fights involving Perikatan Nasional.
00:44Universiti Tunggu Abdul-Rahman's Chin Yimen said PH in Nagari-Sumbilan would be reliant on DAP's ability to deliver Chinese
00:52majority and mixed seats,
00:53as its support in Malay constituencies remains weak.
00:57However, he said PH must recognize that non-Malay voters can no longer be treated as its fixed deposit,
01:03citing DAP's failure to win any of the eight seats it contested in the Sabah election as an example.
01:10Separately, Asro said, while the crisis in Nagari-Sumbilan was politically sensitive,
01:15it was unlikely to become a decisive issue for voters unless it escalates further
01:20or is framed as an act of disrespect towards the monarchy.
01:24Natasha Bust, FMT
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