00:00Well, let's keep the prediction markets conversation going with Ambra Subramiam.
00:04She is the CEO of Kyko.
00:05It's a leading independent provider of cryptocurrency market data and analytics.
00:10When you hear about that from Andre and from the Bloomberg News team
00:14and how something is disputed when it comes to the data,
00:17what are you seeing on Kyko's platform to sort of, you know, refute it
00:22or at least support what people are saying?
00:25So I think that, you know, I love what we're approaching this whole prediction market with a data angle.
00:32It completely highlights the importance of data.
00:35And data, meaning like those are events-driven contracts, right?
00:39They're short-dated, they resolve very fast, and capital is recycled fast.
00:43And so you need to be able to settle those contracts and kind of move on and recycle capital.
00:47So the reference rate, specifically when we talk about price contracts,
00:51you know, is the price of Bitcoin going to be up or down at a specific date?
00:54All of that needs regulated reference rates.
00:56The fact that Calci is one of the biggest prediction markets now by volume
01:00and is a CFTC-regulated market is extremely important when you think about the data aspect.
01:07So there's two angles here.
01:08One of them is the data that is used for contract resolution.
01:11And the other one is all of the data that you can gather from the activity of those exchanges, right?
01:16We've seen prediction markets go from like an experiment two years ago
01:20to something that has scaled immensely and like volume has grown 10x
01:24to trading $25, $30 billion monthly today.
01:28So data is critical, both on the resolution side and also on the monitoring the activity side.
01:33On that point, volume has grown 10x since 2024, but open interest has kept pace.
01:38What does that tell you?
01:38Do you think that these markets are becoming more short-term trading venues
01:41than having trading with conviction, probably?
01:44So these platforms are event-driven contracts, right?
01:48They are short-term in nature, and so capital is basically recycled really fast.
01:53So we see volume as in turnover has grown significantly,
01:57but it's very often the same capital that is just, you know,
02:01the contracts expire and is recycled in reinvestment into the venue.
02:04So this is obviously more specific to prediction markets.
02:08You don't have that on like, you know, spot exchange trading when you buy and hold.
02:11It is the nature of prediction markets that recycle capital with high velocity.
02:15Umber, does it change when it becomes more mainstream?
02:18No.
02:19I mean, I think retail will have probably a very similar approach
02:22to reinvesting their capital as soon as the contracts are resolved.
02:27I think this is structural to prediction market, but is the way it's going to keep going.
02:32How much of the activity is driven by hype cycles and narratives,
02:35like SpaceX going public or just like anything?
02:38Yeah, so we've clearly seen, you know, two big trends,
02:42whether it's the prediction markets that is a very event-driven type of activity
02:46and trading activity.
02:48So clearly there is hype around specific events.
02:51We see that also with platforms like perpetual swap markets, right,
02:55where whenever you have an event, there is more hedging
02:58and trading activity related to that.
02:59So it is still very much event-driven,
03:02but we're seeing a large number of contracts that are just kind of, you know,
03:05continuously renewed contracts and not necessarily event-driven.
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