00:00:00 - Ukraine Just Played a GENIUS Game OF Chess… Putin Is Now in an UNWINNABLE Scenario
00:16:45 - The U.S. Just Made a SHOCKING Announcement… And Putin HATES It
00:32:49 - Something Went So WRONG… Russia Just BROKE Its Own Death Toll Record
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00:16:45 - The U.S. Just Made a SHOCKING Announcement… And Putin HATES It
00:32:49 - Something Went So WRONG… Russia Just BROKE Its Own Death Toll Record
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NewsTranscript
00:00When Putin launched the Ukraine invasion, he thought he held all of the cards.
00:04Ukraine could never survive. And even if Ukraine fought back,
00:07Russia had the money and manpower to see it through. But oh, how times have changed.
00:12Putin was playing checkers while Ukraine played a genius game of chess.
00:16Now Putin is trapped, stuck in an unwinnable scenario with no way out.
00:22The only thing that Putin can do to winning Ukraine now
00:25is the one thing that will break Russia completely.
00:28Russia can't afford to win or lose in Ukraine. And Putin knows it.
00:34As his army is shattered in Ukraine, having already lost almost 1.35 million soldiers,
00:39with many more to come as Russia continues a slow and arduous crawl through Ukrainian territory,
00:45Putin is faced with the one decision he never wanted to make.
00:49Mobilization is on the horizon. It has to be, and we'll tell you why soon.
00:53That possible new wave of mobilization is the only thing that is going to keep Russia ticking over in Ukraine
00:59as it loses soldiers at a record rate.
01:02The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service highlights the problem Putin faces right off the bat.
01:07Experts emphasize that the mass withdrawal of Russians from the economy in conditions of a shortage of personnel
01:13will only worsen the situation in Russia, Ukraine's military intelligence says.
01:17And that's the big problem for Putin.
01:20Mobilization means stripping Russia of the manpower it needs to run a nation,
01:24or so that Putin has enough meat to feed into the grinder in Ukraine.
01:28Putin is now stuck.
01:30Does he cripple his country to continue his war,
01:32or does he allow the Russian military to slowly wilt away under the hellfire of Ukrainian drones unleashed on them
01:38every day?
01:38Either way, Putin loses, and mobilization would be the catalyst for it all.
01:44United24 media reports that Ukrainian intelligence has highlighted that Russia's economy is already in the early phases of recession,
01:51as a combination of stagnation and slowing activity grinds Russian production to a slow halt.
01:58Ukraine isn't lying.
01:59All of the economic indicators suggest that Russia is heading down the financial toilet,
02:03and it's Putin himself who dumped his own country down the crapper.
02:07The cracks are already appearing.
02:09In a May 8th report, Euronews noted that 20 rounds of sanctions against Russia have taken their toll.
02:16Between January and March, the Russian economy shrank by 0.3% per Russia's own Ministry of Economic Development.
02:23That result marks the first economic contraction seen in Russia since 2023,
02:27and it comes at a time when inflation is at 6%, interest rates are enormous, around 15%,
02:33and the Kremlin is creaking under a public deficit that has rocketed to $60 billion.
02:38That deficit will only continue to grow as Putin wages his war.
02:42Even Russia's leader has recognized the problems,
02:44though he did the most Putin-esque thing by accepting no responsibility.
02:48All he could do was call on his cronies to give him reasons
02:51why the trajectory of macroeconomic indicators is currently falling short of expectations.
02:56The answer to that question stares you in the face every morning when you look in the mirror, Putin.
03:01Assuming you have mirrors in your underground bunkers.
03:04These are all symptoms of so much more to come,
03:06especially if Putin follows through and mobilizes Russia to continue the fight in Ukraine.
03:11Just a couple of months before these figures were made public,
03:13the Economist argued that Russia had already entered what it calls the Death Zone.
03:18The Russian economy may not outright collapse, the outlet argued,
03:22but it will also never recover.
03:23That is the Death Zone, which the Economist notes is similar to the 8,000-meter altitude
03:28that can wreck a mountaineer's body.
03:30Now, that hype human body consumes itself faster than it can be repaired.
03:33That's where Russia is right now,
03:35stuck in an unending cycle of wartime production that Putin ordered.
03:39Right now, the Russian economy is only just holding itself together in the present,
03:43as Putin makes orders that are leading to any prospect of future capacity being destroyed.
03:49Exports are down, production has tanked.
03:51Putin can only tax Russia's ailing businesses and people so much
03:55as he fails to fill the gaps he has created in the country's budget.
03:59Russia has done all of this to itself,
04:01and the mobilization that now looms could be the death knell that symbolizes how Russia will never recover.
04:06However, the UK's Colonel Joby Rimmer has also warned of the destabilizing effect
04:11that Putin's bad decisions have on his country's future.
04:14In a May 13 speech at the UK delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,
04:20Rimmer laid it all out for the ignorant Putin to understand.
04:24Russia's own data underlines this trend.
04:26Economic growth has stalled, investment remains weak, and consumer demand is slowing.
04:31Fiscal pressures are intensifying as revenues decline and expenditure,
04:34particularly defense spending, continues to rise.
04:37Even where commodity revenues provide temporary relief,
04:40they do not address the deeper structural imbalances of a war-driven economic model
04:44that is approaching its limits, Rimmer declared.
04:47Putin won't listen.
04:49He can't.
04:50Even though he knows that these words make sense,
04:51he also realizes that the only way he can make any sort of progress
04:54toward repairing the shattered Russian economy is to pull his soldiers out of Ukraine.
04:59But Putin will never do that.
05:01Ending the special military operation without achieving any of his goals
05:05would be the death of the carefully cultivated image of the strong man
05:08that he has spent decades creating.
05:10How could Putin ever cast himself as Russia's protector
05:13when he has withdrawn from the biggest war Russia has seen in generations?
05:17It simply can't happen.
05:18And that is the trap that is pushing Putin ever closer
05:21to the mobilization that could spell the end of the Russian economy.
05:24Right now, Russia is stuck in a deadly feedback loop.
05:27To keep his war machine churning, Putin has to dedicate huge portions
05:31of Russia's domestic manpower to the military-industrial complex that he has created.
05:35That, in turn, weakens the civilian economy.
05:38Businesses can't produce to the scale needed for a healthy economy
05:41when the Kremlin and companies that it favors for wartime production
05:44are offering more money than ever for people to work in the factories
05:47or go to die on the front lines in Ukraine.
05:50Output is only sustained by increased defense spending,
05:52which props up employment and enables Putin to enact more political control.
05:57But that control comes at cost.
05:59Russia is now so reliant on its defense sector
06:01that disengaging from the war could trigger an enormous political and economic backlash.
06:07There is no escaping this loop for Russia right now.
06:09But all of this is setting the stage for the horror that will come
06:12when Putin inevitably goes in the opposite direction.
06:15Rather than withdraw, Russia is on the verge of mobilizing.
06:18And when that happens, the war is lost for Russia for one big reason.
06:21The labor shortage that already exists in Russia will go critical,
06:25and Russia won't be able to recover.
06:27Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service highlights the main reasons
06:30why mobilization would amount to Putin falling into a war-ending trap of his own making.
06:35Even beyond taking away yet more employees from companies that aren't related to the war,
06:39Putin also strips Russia of its expertise when he mobilizes.
06:43A modern war machine doesn't just require meat to be sent to the front lines.
06:47It needs skilled personnel who are responsible for everything
06:50that goes on behind the scenes of the war machine.
06:53Technicians who maintain systems, communications, and electronic warfare systems
06:57will find themselves called to the front to do their work.
06:59They can still do their jobs, only they will be doing them outside of Russia
07:03and inside the occupied territories, where Ukraine has been intensifying its strikes
07:07to the point where it basically doubled the number it launched in April
07:10when compared to March and continues to build up.
07:13In Russia, these skilled people face minimal risk, but in Ukraine,
07:17one drone will be all that it takes to strip Russia of another talented employee who will
07:21never come back, and just as importantly, never be able to pass on their knowledge
07:25to the next generation.
07:26And the kicker here is that Russia already knows that it has a labor shortage.
07:31In mid-April, the governor of Russia's central bank, Elvira Nabulina, warned that Russia
07:35is facing a labor shortage for the first time in its modern history,
07:38which is happening as the country's economy overheats.
07:41She cited Russia's historically low unemployment rate of 2%
07:44as not being the good thing that it appears to be.
07:47It actually means that Russian businesses don't have a large enough pool of talent from which to pull,
07:52forcing increases in wages, which then increase production costs.
07:55Those remarks came on the back of a 1.8% contraction in Russia's economy during the first two months
08:00of
08:002026, and they amount to a warning delivered to Putin,
08:03don't mobilize or it will be the death of Russia.
08:06But here's where it gets serious.
08:08The question has to be asked, will Russia mobilize?
08:11Before we answer that, there's a lot more where this comes from on The Military Show.
08:15If you're getting insight from the channel, make sure you subscribe so you never miss a video.
08:20So, will Russia mobilize?
08:23It's already started moving toward it, and the signs are all in place.
08:27Deep in the Ryazan region of Russia, the regional governor, Pavel Malkov,
08:31is feeling the pressure of Putin's never-ending thirst for more soldiers.
08:35He has signed an order that forces businesses that operate in Ryazan to identify potential candidates for military service
08:41who are currently under their employ.
08:44Companies with between 150 and 300 employees have to identify two individuals to serve in Ukraine.
08:51Those with 300 to 500 employees must offer up three.
08:55And any company with more than 500 employees must provide the details of five employees.
09:00There's no two ways around it.
09:02This is stealth mobilization.
09:04And while Ryazan may be the first, the odds are that we're going to see a lot of other Russian
09:08regions
09:08signing similar orders as Putin demands more meat.
09:12And even earlier than this, Putin was setting up for mobilization.
09:15Back in December, Russia's leader signed a decree that calls up reservists for military training assemblies being held in 2026.
09:23The Kremlin has also prevented anybody from learning the two most important aspects of this decree,
09:28which are the number of reservists who will be called upon to train, and how long this training will last.
09:33But we don't need to know those numbers.
09:35What we have here is Russia preparing its reservists for war,
09:38which is precisely what you would expect Putin to do when he's getting ready to mobilize.
09:42Fast forward to May 14th, a Neuronews reported on another new law that Putin has put into place.
09:48Russia's state Duma has officially approved a law that allows Putin to deploy the Russian armed forces to protect Russian
09:55citizens abroad.
09:56That may not seem important on the surface.
09:59Russia's army has been in Ukraine since February 2022.
10:01But remember that Putin has always referred to his invasion as a special military operation,
10:06and has always avoided calling it a war.
10:09What this new law does is lay the groundwork for Putin to officially declare an invasion
10:13under the auspices of protecting Russian civilians.
10:17It's not a stretch to say that Russia could use this new law to mobilize.
10:20The Kiev Independent reports that up to 800,000 Russians have moved to Crimea since it was illegally annexed in
10:262014.
10:27All that Putin has to do is claim these civilians need more protection than they already have, and that's it.
10:32Mobilization will become a necessity for that protection rather than for the special military operation.
10:37Putin is laying the groundwork for the mobilization to come.
10:40But what he doesn't realize is that mobilizing won't just plunge Russia into an economic chasm
10:45that is somehow even deeper than the one he's already fallen into.
10:48Losing labor is just one problem.
10:50Behind that major problem are several others that will combine to cripple Russia.
10:54Before we get to those problems, there's just one more sign that Putin is indeed on the brink of mobilization,
10:59whether he wants to be or not.
11:00According to the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Siersky,
11:05Russia's plan in 2026 is to recruit another 409,000 soldiers to its military via volunteer recruitment.
11:12That number comes with a lot of assumptions,
11:14which include Ukraine not being able to inflict more casualties on Russia than the Kremlin expects,
11:18and that recruitment inside Russia can be sustained at the level that the Kremlin anticipates.
11:23Neither of those assumptions seem to be working out for Putin right now.
11:26According to United24 Media, Russia lost around 130,000 soldiers during the first four months of 2026.
11:33Now, if those figures stay stable, that would amount to an annual loss of 390,000,
11:38which Russia's recruitment target more than covers.
11:41But that's the problem.
11:42There's nothing stable going on for Russia right now.
11:45As Putin renews his push into Ukraine's east as part of his faltering spring offensive,
11:50Russian casualties are mounting.
11:51March and April both saw Russia lose over 35,000 soldiers per month,
11:56amounting to 70,000 of the 130,000 already recorded this year.
12:00If Ukraine maintains that tempo for the rest of 2026,
12:04that amounts to 350,000 soldiers lost in 10 months,
12:07plus the 60,000 lost in January and February for a total of 410,000 casualties.
12:13That's higher than Russia's recruitment target.
12:16And it assumes that the monthly casualties aren't going to climb high in the summer
12:19when Russia will reach its peak in terms of the number of assaults it launches against Ukraine.
12:24That alone would be bad enough for Russia on the manpower front,
12:27but there's also another issue.
12:29409,000 recruits in 2026 is just a target.
12:32The Kremlin can set that target, but it doesn't mean that Russia will reach it.
12:36And according to the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev,
12:40Russia is nowhere close to hitting the numbers that it needs to reach.
12:43Toward the end of March, Medvedev said that Russia was recruiting about 27,000 soldiers per month,
12:49multiply that by 12 months and you get 324,000 recruits, which is 85,000 fewer than Russia wants.
12:56Combine sluggish recruitment with more casualties on the front and Russia gets a military manpower problem.
13:01The mobilization that will create a deeper labor shortage and more problems for the Russian economy
13:05is becoming almost inevitable.
13:07But we told you earlier that there are even more problems for Putin than the labor crisis he'll create
13:12if he pushes the trigger on mobilization.
13:14There are two more issues and they can turn an already escalating situation into an absolute catastrophe for Russia
13:20as Putin scrambles to get out of the trap that he put himself in.
13:23First up, emigration.
13:25There will likely be a huge wave of Russian people getting out of the country as fast as possible
13:30if Putin mobilizes, Ukrainian intelligence reports.
13:34Russia has already experienced that sort of mass emigration,
13:37which was triggered by the combination of the launch of Putin's invasion
13:40and a partial mobilization instituted back in September 2022.
13:45According to The Bell, around 650,000 of those who fled Russia
13:49in the wake of these two incidents were still abroad by the summer of 2024.
13:54It's unlikely that many of those 650,000 have returned to Russia after spending over two years away.
13:59Some of those outside of this group who ran initially have returned, as United24 media points out.
14:05But if Putin mobilizes fully, the odds are that they, along with hundreds of thousands,
14:09if not millions more, will try to get out of Dodge before their inevitable call-ups.
14:14How successful they'll be is a big question.
14:16Russia had already been caught confiscating the passports of some of its officials
14:20to prevent them from fleeing back in 2023, as Business Insider reported,
14:24and it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that the Kremlin has some form of emigration ban in the works
14:29to ensure Putin's mobilization is successful.
14:31But again, you get a trap.
14:32Either the Russians stay, perhaps forced by the Kremlin, and they get sent into Ukraine,
14:37which worsens the labor shortage, or hundreds of thousands emigrate and Putin gets the same result,
14:42a shattered domestic economy that can't survive the war that he continues to wage.
14:47The cost to the Russian economy mounts up.
14:49And speaking about costs, there's the second issue that will blindside Putin and his Kremlin cronies.
14:55Mobilizing hundreds of thousands of soldiers for the Ukraine war
14:58means paying through the nose to get those soldiers ready for a fight.
15:01In addition, Russia's financial difficulties should be highlighted.
15:04The budget deficit has already significantly exceeded planned levels,
15:08while the cost of supporting hundreds of thousands of mobilized personnel
15:11would require unsustainable expenditures, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service declares.
15:16The service has a point.
15:17Every soldier that Russia mobilizes for Ukraine needs to be paid.
15:21They may not get the ludicrous signing bonuses that volunteer soldiers receive,
15:25which have reached almost $27,000,
15:28on top of the federally mandated minimum of $4,500 in some of Russia's regions.
15:32But each soldier gets a monthly salary.
15:35They need to be equipped.
15:36The money has to be spent on training and transportation.
15:38Across potentially hundreds of thousands of mobilized recruits,
15:42that all starts to add up for a country that is already struggling to pay for the war that Putin
15:46started.
15:46Again, it is all part of Russia being in the death zone.
15:50There is no escaping that spiral.
15:52As the Russian military grows through mobilization,
15:55the cost of maintaining that military skyrockets.
15:57But Putin's transformation of the Russian economy means that these costs can't be met.
16:03Non-military production craters even deeper,
16:05as the manpower needed to sustain it gets stripped away.
16:08Those who are left behind can't fill the gaps that already exist,
16:11and they certainly won't be able to fill them later.
16:13The labor shortage just keeps getting worse.
16:16Mobilization would be the end of everything,
16:19but not in the way that Putin envisions.
16:21He is now trapped in a war that he can't afford to win or lose.
16:25If mobilization gets him what he wants in Ukraine,
16:27he leaves Russia as a shell of its former self.
16:30And if he chooses not to mobilize,
16:32then Ukraine will keep tearing through what Russia can send,
16:34and Putin loses anyway.
16:36And here's the worst part for Putin.
16:37He knows that all of this is coming.
16:39There's a deep crisis in Russia that is literally years in the making,
16:43and it's all being caused by Putin.
16:45The strongest army in Europe belongs to Ukraine.
16:50That's not us saying it.
16:51The US has just crowned Ukraine as Europe's strongest military.
16:55Putin hates it.
16:56He never wanted to hear anything like this.
16:58But the reasoning is sound.
16:59The future of Europe now rests on Ukraine,
17:02and in what has to go down as a nightmare come true for Putin,
17:05the US recognition means that Ukraine now holds more cards than ever in peace talks.
17:10It was the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who made the grand proclamations
17:15during a May 14th interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News.
17:18Sitting on Air Force One as he headed to China alongside other members of the Trump administration,
17:23Rubio told Hanley that no other military in Europe comes close to comparing with Ukraine.
17:28The Ukrainian armed forces are now the strongest, most powerful armed forces in all of Europe,
17:32just to be clear right now, Rubio declared.
17:35That's a statement that will send shockwaves through the Kremlin,
17:38an acknowledgement of something that Putin never wanted the US to recognize.
17:42Rubio provided several reasons why he believes Ukraine is as good as it gets in Europe right now,
17:48including the provision of Western military assistance, which we'll get to.
17:51But far ahead of that are two factors that Rubio says make Ukraine stronger than everybody else.
17:56Unrivaled combat experience and an asymmetric approach to war
18:00that has redefined everything that we thought we knew about combating Russian aggression.
18:04Let's start with the combat experience.
18:07Ukraine is stronger, obviously because of a lot of the assistance they've gotten,
18:11Rubio said before adding, but also because of the battlefield experience they've gained.
18:15Never underestimate how valuable this hard-earned battlefield experience can be,
18:20both for Ukraine itself and the rest of Europe.
18:22Most European nations, and certainly those that might be tasked with fending off a future invasion
18:26by Russia, haven't fought in active combat for years.
18:29Take the UK as an example.
18:31The UK's last involvement in a major war was in Afghanistan,
18:34a conflict that lasted between 2001 and 2021.
18:38There's no taking away from the heroism that the UK soldiers demonstrated in that war.
18:42However, it was a very different fight from what we now see between Ukraine and Russia.
18:47Putin's forces don't engage in guerrilla warfare.
18:49They push relentlessly as Russia dedicates hundreds of thousands of soldiers to attritional campaigns
18:54that force its opponents onto the defensive.
18:57The UK hasn't seen anything like that since World War II.
19:00The same goes for most of Europe, and most countries in Europe, and even in NATO, know it.
19:05The value that lies in Ukraine's combat experience has been recognized for a long time.
19:09Rubio is just the latest, and in the context of Ukraine's relationship with the US,
19:13perhaps the loudest voice to proclaim it.
19:15But others have said the same kind of thing.
19:17For instance, December 2025 saw the Director General of the NATO International Military Staff,
19:22Lieutenant General Remigius Beltranus,
19:25praise the contributions that Ukrainian officers have made to helping NATO to improve its collective
19:29standards.
19:30NATO has plenty of doctrines that dictate how the organization will respond to a war with a nation
19:34like Russia.
19:35Many of them are still important, especially on the aerial front.
19:38However, it's Ukraine that brings the most experience when it comes to dealing with Russia
19:42on the ground, Beltranus said, and NATO has a lot to learn from the nation.
19:46Fast forward to 2026, and European leaders are now highlighting how Ukraine's combat experience
19:51makes its military the strongest that the continent has to offer.
19:54About a month before Rubio made his comments, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said,
19:59There is no other army in Europe that has had such military experience in recent decades
20:03as Ukraine.
20:04Merz made those comments as he talked about Germany's interest in coordinating with Ukraine
20:08so that Germany could learn more about Ukrainian military structures.
20:12Translation, Ukraine knows plenty that Germany doesn't about dealing with a tyrant like Putin.
20:16On April 25th, Czech military analyst Colonel Otakar Foltin told UKR inform that there is
20:22no longer any denying Ukraine's position as the best that Europe has to offer.
20:26We already have a European army, and that European army is called the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
20:31the colonel said.
20:32Keep that mention of the European army in mind, because we'll be coming back to it.
20:36If the Ukrainian army was able to outperform and stop the Russian army, it means, first,
20:40that this is already a victory in itself, and second, that the armed forces of Ukraine
20:43are the most powerful European army, with the greatest combat experience and the strongest
20:47will, Foltin added.
20:49That's an interesting final statement.
20:51The Czech colonel points out that it's not just Ukraine's experience that makes it the
20:54strongest in Europe. An indomitable will is everything, and Ukraine has fought so hard
20:59over four years because the nation refuses to capitulate to a dictator who wants to see the
21:04end of Ukraine. A consensus has been reached. Combat experience lies at the core of Ukraine's
21:09strength. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will think that all of these Jews are a long
21:13time in the making. He has long pointed out Ukraine's heroes are key to making the country
21:18the strongest in all of Europe, so seeing Rubio, NATO commanders, European heads of state, and
21:23analysts all say the same things will be gratifying.
21:26Ukraine is now setting about proving that its experience can pay off for others. In the gulf,
21:31around 200 Ukrainian drone experts are working with nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help
21:37them defend themselves against the very Shahid-type drones that Russia has been using against Ukraine
21:41for years. Ukraine is setting itself up as a key defense partner all around the world, and that's all born
21:47from the country's experiences in dealing with Russia. Putin opened Pandora's box when he
21:52launched his Ukraine invasion. The box can never be closed, as he has turned Ukraine into the most
21:57experienced fighting force in Europe. However, experience, as important as it is, must be
22:02accompanied by appropriate tactics. And that's where Rubio says Ukraine has truly excelled, as its
22:08soldiers and overall military learn more than any other European nation every day that they are
22:12entrenched in their fight against Russia. It's how that learning is used to make adaptations on the
22:17battlefield that really make Ukraine as strong as it is. There's no doubt that the necessity of
22:21fighting this war has caused the Ukrainians to develop new tactics, new techniques, new equipment,
22:26new technology that is creating a sort of hybrid asymmetrical warfare, Rubio declared before adding.
22:31That's impressive, no doubt about it. And the U.S. Secretary of State isn't wrong.
22:36Ukraine has become a hotbed of innovation since Russia launched its invasion, to the point where
22:40it has transformed everything anybody thought they knew about defending themselves against a much larger
22:44force. Drones, of course, are at the forefront of this transformation. The Gulf nations want to
22:49do deals with Ukraine because they know that the interceptor drones that Ukraine has developed offer
22:53them a far more cost-effective way of dealing with Iranian Shahid drones and their expensive
22:57Western-made air defense missiles. In Ukraine itself, the drone advantage has evolved over time.
23:03First, Ukraine modified commercial drones so they could carry small payloads to attack Russian forces.
23:08Then those drones kept on getting better. Maritime drones gave Ukraine the ability to attack ships,
23:13even though it barely has a navy of its own. Over May 16th to 17th alone, Ukraine used its drones
23:19to
23:19take out a Russian Coast Guard vessel, alongside 46 other targets, TVP World reports. Russia's Black
23:26Sea Fleet found out and continues to see how effective these drones are. A third of the fleet's warships
23:31now lie below the waves. In Ukraine, and even inside Russia, drones form the core of the asymmetric
23:37strategy that Rubio highlights. Ukraine has built kill zones that stretch for dozens of kilometers,
23:42which tear up Russian soldiers before they get close to the front. Long-range strikes against
23:46Russian military assets and oil, both in the occupied territory and Russia itself,
23:50subject Putin's war machine to death by a thousand cuts. The key to all of this is that Ukraine never
23:56stands still, be that with its drones or the many other technologies that it has developed to form the
24:00backbone of its asymmetric strategy. As the Center for European Policy Analysis, or SEPA, points out,
24:05Ukraine is in the midst of a shift that minimizes the number of soldiers it needs to keep on the
24:10front lines. Direct exposure on the front is now making way for data analysis, remote operations,
24:15and feats of engineering that no military in Europe ever considered because they didn't need to before
24:19now. Drones are now used against between 80 and 85 percent of the frontline targets that Ukraine has
24:25in its sights, SEPA notes. Ukraine will make 8 million drones in 2026 alone, SEPA adds,
24:30and it continues to improve on everything that it builds. But there's so much more to Ukraine's
24:35asymmetric strategy than drones alone. It's the tech behind these drones, along with other unmanned
24:40systems, that's the really impressive part that has taken Ukraine to a new level of European military
24:45power. That tech changes everything. And by the way, you are watching The Military Show. If you haven't
24:50subscribed yet, now's the perfect time to hit the button so you always catch what's coming up next
24:55from our channel. On the tech front, Ukraine has been spearheading the use of artificial
25:00intelligence or AI in its warfighting. As of April, there are more than 200 companies that are
25:05working on AI-related military technologies in Ukraine, the country's defense ministry points
25:10out. Those companies are collectively responsible for more than 300 AI-related developments, many
25:15involving the incorporation of AI with drones, that are registered on the BraveOne platform Ukraine
25:20created to support its many innovators. Heck, that platform alone deserves a mention when it comes
25:25to Ukraine's asymmetric strategy. Through BraveOne, Ukraine provides support and funding to its
25:30decentralized defense sector, which in turn ensures that Ukraine doesn't make itself vulnerable to
25:35Russian attacks that can wipe out massive portions of its defense industry. Anybody who has a good
25:39idea can get the support they need using BraveOne. For a nation that thrives on innovation, the clever
25:45use of a centralized platform to support decentralized entrepreneurs is a stroke of genius. And there's so
25:51much more that we could talk about here. Ukraine's development of ground robotics means that machines are
25:55replacing troops on the front lines to handle logistics and, as we saw in April, even capture
26:00Russian positions. The interceptor drones that are enjoying so much demand in the Gulf have been a
26:05revelation that have helped Ukraine get to the point where it's intercepting almost 90% of the long-range
26:10drones that Russia launches into Ukrainian territory every month. Over and over, Ukraine proves itself to
26:15be the most powerful European military, not through its development of expensive tech, but due to making
26:20cost-effective weapons that work against the threat that Russia poses. And again, the rest of Europe
26:25sees the value. Manufacturers large and small throughout Europe are now racing to imitate Ukraine's
26:31drone development, The Guardian's Jasper Jolly reported on May 10. He points to a UK-based startup
26:36named Skycutter, which makes fuselages for interceptor drones using a row of 3D printers.
26:41Our sort of business would never have even been a concept without the asymmetric approach to war that
26:46Rubio notes. And it's just one example of companies throughout Europe either being inspired by Ukraine
26:51or working directly alongside it so they can help their countries get ready for the sort of war that
26:56Putin wages. That alone proves that Ukraine's asymmetric approach is of an indescribable level
27:01of value to Europe, just as Rubio says. But let's move on to another point that the US secretary of
27:06state made. He points out that part of the reason why Ukraine has become the powerhouse of Europe
27:11is the level of military aid that it's received from its partners in the US and on the European
27:15continent. Rubio isn't wrong to point this out. According to the Kiel Institute and its Ukraine
27:20support tracker, Ukraine has received almost $134 billion in aid from the US, with a further $241
27:27billion coming from Europe, which has also offered another $208 billion in aid that has yet to be
27:33allocated. Programs like PEARL exist to enable Ukraine, Europe, and the US to work together to
27:39acquire the sorts of Western weapons that Ukraine hasn't been able to make itself. Air defense systems
27:44like the Patriot and airframes like the F-16 are the standouts of the Western weapons that Ukraine
27:49has received so far. The former due to it being the best system that Ukraine has for dealing with
27:53Russia's missile threat, and the latter because it gives Ukraine more options in the air than
27:57anything else in its arsenal. But even with this aid, Ukraine still finds ways to display its power.
28:03Let's take the F-16s as an example. These aren't new Western airframes. Ukraine is essentially
28:08receiving the cast-offs from nations that have upgraded to other fighter jets. That isn't meant to be a knock.
28:13Ukraine values its F-16s. But that combat experience we talked about earlier comes to the fore,
28:18as Ukraine is showing the West that even its outdated platforms still have value.
28:22Back in December 2024, just a few months after Ukraine received its F-16s, one of the country's
28:28pilots achieved a world first by shooting down six cruise missiles in a single sortie. That's the
28:33sort of feat that can only be achieved by a nation that is focused on making its military the best
28:37that
28:37Europe has. Ukraine has also adapted to incorporate low-altitude flight into its F-16 sorties,
28:42which goes against every standard NATO doctrine that exists. Why? Again, it's all about adaptation.
28:49Flying high makes Ukraine's Western jets vulnerable to Russian air defenses,
28:53but flying low allows Ukraine to use its F-16s to conduct strikes while minimizing the risks that
28:57its airframes face. It's another rewriting of the traditional rulebook that comes from Ukraine.
29:03Innovation combined with experience, whether that be with brand new weapons or Western-supplied
29:07equipment, that's what makes Ukraine the strongest military in Europe.
29:11And before we move on, we're going to point out one more way that Ukraine is stronger than every
29:15other European nation. Rubio didn't cover this one, but it's important. Ukraine has the largest
29:20active military in Europe, after Russia. According to Statista, Ukraine has 900,000 active personnel in
29:27its military. That's still a long way behind Russia's 1.32 million active personnel. But when it comes to
29:33military strength in what you might call its purest form, Ukraine is well ahead of any other army in
29:37Europe. Size matters when dealing with Russia, even if a nation has created asymmetric tactics that
29:43allow it to fight an even harder battle than it could through sheer manpower alone. Even if Ukraine
29:47is forced to reduce the size of its army to 600,000 soldiers, as was proposed in a 28-point
29:52peace plan
29:53proposed by the US toward the end of 2025, Ukraine would still have an army that is twice the size
29:58of
29:58Turkey's, which has the next largest army in Europe behind Ukraine and excluding Russia.
30:03Jail combat experience, asymmetrical genius, and Western weapons with an army of that size,
30:08and you get a legitimate European superpower. We mentioned peace talks just now. You may
30:13remember that we touched on those talks in the introduction of the video, where we said that the
30:17US acknowledging Ukraine's strength is a nightmare for Putin when it comes to negotiating. Those
30:22negotiations aren't going as well as Rubio and the US would like. During his discussion with Hannity,
30:27Rubio pointed out that talks seemed to have slowed down, but he also made a couple of other
30:31interesting comments. The President just wants to see the war end. He thinks it's a crazy war,
30:36and he's right, Rubio said of US President Donald Trump's efforts to negotiate peace.
30:40You have people dying in massive numbers on both sides. Ukraine is going to spend two decades
30:44rebuilding. The damage to the Russian economy is extraordinary. Adding to this, Rubio pointed out
30:49that Russia is losing between 15,000 and 20,000 soldiers per month. Those soldiers aren't getting
30:54injured, Rubio pointed out. They're dying as Russia endures losing five times as many soldiers
30:59a month as Ukraine in the war. These comments matter for a very simple reason. They show Putin
31:04that he can't manipulate the US into believing that Ukraine is weaker than it actually is.
31:08In attempting to gain leverage in peace talks, Putin spent much of 2025 using misinformation to cast
31:14Russia as an all-conquering force against tiny Ukraine. At times, the manipulation appeared to
31:19be working. In December, Trump declared that Ukraine was losing the war against Russia,
31:23even though Russia only managed to steal about 1% of Ukraine's territory in a year,
31:27that saw it lose an estimated 415,000 soldiers. That's not winning a war. It's crawling along while
31:34hoping you can negotiate a peace deal that isn't reflective of what's really happening on the
31:37battlefield. Putin tried to foster a narrative that simply didn't exist. Now, Rubio has come out to
31:43say that Ukraine has the strongest army in Europe. That narrative has been shattered. That's why the
31:48words coming out of the mouth of the US Secretary of State are such a nightmare for Putin. Even now,
31:53as he talks about foreseeing an end to the invasion he started, Putin has to face up to the fact
31:57that
31:58he can't pull the wall over American eyes anymore. The nation that has cast itself as the chief mediator
32:02in peace talks now knows, without a shadow of doubt, that Ukraine isn't the weak nation that
32:07Putin tries to cast it as. Ukraine is strong, stronger than any other nation in Europe, and the US
32:12recognizes it. The next time his delegates are at the table, they won't be able to argue for the
32:17inevitability of a Ukrainian loss. Rubio and his compatriots see through it. They see the damage
32:21being done to Russia's economy. They see the scale of death and how Ukraine has beaten Russia in
32:26casualties. And they see Ukraine's military, the asymmetric beast that has developed into an army
32:31that is central to all of Europe's security. The cards are no longer in Putin's hands.
32:35And as for Ukraine's strength, it's starting to pay off. We see that in the US assessment and
32:41everything that Ukraine is doing to make itself a key defense partner to European and Gulf nations.
32:45But even in Ukraine itself, the strength is showing itself.
32:48The Russian military is breaking records. Again. And they are the exact kinds of records that Russia
32:54does not want to be breaking. Again. Something has gone drastically wrong in Putin's vaunted spring
33:01offensive against Ukraine as the death toll has climbed to levels that we have never seen before.
33:05Putin has achieved the truly unbelievable. He is winning alright, only he is winning at losing.
33:13We don't mean to sound like a broken record about the records being broken,
33:17but it's all just getting so ridiculous for Russia right now. Let's start with the casualties.
33:22During the first four months of 2026, Russia managed to burn through 130,000 of its soldiers that were
33:28killed or wounded, according to statistics from Russia's defense ministry, United 24 media reports.
33:34That's a record in its own right. Russia admitting that its meat grinder tactics are causing casualties on such a
33:39grand scale is crazy. And even crazier is that this information coming out of Russia rather than
33:45Ukraine likely means that the figures are being massaged. The real numbers may be higher.
33:50The two spring months of the year have also seen Russia record grim records as more than 70,000 of
33:56soldiers that it has lost came during March and April. March saw Russia lose 35,351 of its troops to
34:03death or injury and April followed that up with 35,203. Add the extra day to April that you get
34:10in
34:10March and it's likely that Ukraine would have broken the record that it set a month earlier. And if this
34:14pace continues, Russia is on track to lose more than 100,000 of its soldiers during the first three
34:20months of spring alone. Could it get any worse for Putin? Oh yes, and you're about to find out how.
34:26Let's zoom in on the casualties for a second. The term casualty in war refers to any soldiers that a
34:32nation loses. So it covers soldiers who are killed, those injured to the point where they are removed
34:37from the battlefield, and soldiers who have surrendered or otherwise gone missing. Normally, casualty figures
34:42are heavily influenced by injuries rather than deaths. For instance, the Belfer Center says that a
34:47combination of modern medical advances and smarter warfighting tactics typically means that the US
34:52has a wounded to kill ratio in war that ranges between 10 wounded to one killed and 17 wounded to
34:58one killed. But as for Russia, let's just say it's broken another record by flipping the script on what
35:03we know about wounded to kill ratios in the modern day. In a March 11th article, the Kiev Independent
35:08reported that Ukrainian intelligence has found that Russia's internal estimates for its casualties were
35:131.315 million at the time. That's roughly in line with the number of soldiers that Ukraine was reporting as
35:19casualties at around the same time. But the real headline grabber in these figures is revealed by
35:24Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A change has been recorded in the killed to wounded ratio among
35:29Russian forces. Out of 100% of losses, 62% are killed and 38% wounded, Zelenskyy revealed. So let's
35:37get this
35:37straight. The US records a wounded to kill ratio of 10 wounded to every one killed at his worst. Putin
35:43has said, hold my vodka and created a meat grinder where Russia is almost at the point where it has
35:48one wounded for every two killed. This is the type of turnaround that nobody in Russia wants to see,
35:54as it means that Putin's military is losing more soldiers outright than it is to injuries from which
35:58those soldiers can recover. That's going to create gaps in the Russian military on its own. And there's
36:03another major problem and record being broken that lies behind this already massive issue.
36:09But before we get to that record, we have another. Russia's territorial gains in Donetsk are coming
36:14at a higher cost than ever before. Donetsk needs to fall for Russia to claim the Donbass, which has
36:20long been the region that Putin demands that Ukraine cede to Russia for a peace agreement to be reached.
36:25Putin's favorite mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov even said as recently as May 13th that Ukraine needs to
36:31withdraw its forces from the Donbass to open a corridor to peace talks. But what Peskov really
36:36meant to say was, please leave and stop killing record numbers of our soldiers. According to United
36:4124 media, Russia has reached the point where it's sacrificing more soldiers for less territory than
36:46ever before. Russia's military advanced just 53 square kilometers in Donetsk during April.
36:51That advance came at the cost of 25,000 Russian soldiers, giving Russia a ratio of 470 soldiers down
36:58for every square kilometer of Donetsk that it's gaining. That is a horrendous talent.
37:03And we have two bits of maths that show us just how bad it is. First up, how this compares
37:08to Russia's
37:08advances last year. According to the Moscow Times, Russia managed to make its largest single-year
37:14advances during the war so far, snatching up a total of 5,600 square kilometers of territory from Ukraine.
37:20That's not as impressive as largest single-year advances makes it sound.
37:24It still only amounts to 0.94% of Ukraine's territory. Still, if we take the figure as given,
37:30along with the national interest report that Russia has lost an estimated 415,000 soldiers to death,
37:36injury or capture in 2025, then we get an interesting ratio of soldiers lost for territory gain.
37:422025 saw Russia steal territory at a rate of 74.1 casualties per square kilometer. Of course,
37:49these figures aren't solely focused on Donetsk. But still, Russia is losing over six times more
37:54soldiers for every square kilometer that it gains in Donetsk than it was losing to grab the same
37:58amount of territory in 2025. That's some new record to have for Putin, and the math starts to look even
38:04worse when we look at what's left in Donetsk for Russia to capture. In an April 8th report,
38:08back when Russia was only losing 316 soldiers per square kilometer of Donetsk they were taking,
38:15United24 media said that there is somewhere between 6,000 and 7,000 square miles of Donetsk that is
38:20still in Ukraine's hands. Let's plug our latest casualties per square kilometer figures into
38:25those numbers. At the low end, Russia stands to lose 2.82 million of its soldiers to take the rest
38:31of
38:31Donetsk. But at the high end, the number jumps to 3.29 million. Either way, Putin will be breaking
38:37another record as he has to burn through between double and almost triple the number of soldiers
38:42that Russia has lost so far just to take the rest of Donetsk. Something is going very,
38:47very wrong here for Russia. And it gets even worse for Putin when we start to look at Russian
38:52recruitment. The one thing that has sustained Putin's invasion for over four years is that
38:56Russia has always managed to replace the soldiers that it has lost in Ukraine. But that has all
39:01changed as for the first time since Putin launched his invasion, Russia is no longer able to sustain
39:05the level of volunteer recruitment it needs to keep on sending meat into the grinder. Several sources have
39:11said as much, starting with Russia's own deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev,
39:16Another of Putin's mouthpieces said in March that Russia was recruiting 27,000 people to its military
39:22every month. This was the same March where Ukraine recorded over 35,000 Russian casualties, so the
39:28shortfall is obvious. In his Russianomics column, military analyst Yanis Kluger said that Russia was
39:35about 20% short of the recruitment that it managed in 2025, as figures have dropped from between 1,000
39:40and
39:401,200 patsies pulled into Putin's military per day to between 800 and 1,000. And Zelenskyy himself
39:47adds that Russia managed to recruit about 80,000 soldiers during the first three months of 2026,
39:53which is around 9,000 fewer than the casualties it experienced in the same period.
39:57The figures all roughly align. And according to United24 media, all of this means that Russia is
40:02now in the position where it faces a rough monthly recruitment deficit that falls somewhere between
40:0710 and 15%. There seems to be nothing that Russia can do to reverse the flow either.
40:12More records are being broken in the regions of Russia from which Putin recruits,
40:16as one-off signing bonuses are skyrocketing. Spiegel International reports,
40:20In some regions of St. Petersburg, those one-off bonuses have climbed as high as $58,500.
40:27The Belgian Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce in Russia says that the average salary in Russia
40:31works out to about $1,290, so that means that Russia is offering signing bonuses that are more
40:38than 3.7 times the amount that the average Russian gets paid in a year. It still isn't working.
40:44Recruitment is done as casualties are up. And with its wounded-to-killed ratio,
40:48Russia can't even rely on cycling previously injured soldiers back to the front to make up a shortfall.
40:53Too many of them are dead in the fields and cities of Ukraine.
40:56And Ukraine wants to make it all so much worse for Russia. We've spoken before about Ukrainian
41:01Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov's stated goal of 50,000 Russian casualties per month.
41:06Ukraine isn't there yet. It has around 15,000 more monthly casualties to go.
41:10However, the spring offensive is now underway, and as the weather improves in Ukraine,
41:14Ukraine, the size and scale of Russia's assaults are likely to grow. That's the sort of record
41:19that Putin would want to see. But if Ukraine has shown us anything during the first few months of
41:232026, it's that its defenses are capable of inflicting casualties on a scale that we've never
41:28seen before. More Russian assaults will just mean more of the records that Putin doesn't want being
41:33broken. And if Ukraine is able to reach Fedorov's 50,000 target, that will finally be enough to make
41:38the attritional campaign that Putin is waging impossible to maintain without forcing Russia's
41:43president to resort to drastic measures such as mobilization. The records just keep falling for
41:48Putin. Starting to feel like we need to give Guinness a call to make a special book of records
41:52just covering Russia's catastrophic failures in Ukraine. 2026 has been a disaster for Russia so far.
41:58The spring especially so. And in a moment we're going to reveal just how bad the spring is going
42:04for Russia, as well as two of the key reasons why Putin's plans for 2026 have collapsed so
42:09chaotically. But before we do, we want to remind you that you are watching The Military Show.
42:13There's a lot more where this comes from, so hit subscribe if you're getting value from the channel.
42:18So what does Russia's miserable spring really mean for Putin? All of the broken records are enough to
42:23embarrass him on a global scale. But what he is overseeing right now is the very worst period that
42:28Russia has experienced in Ukraine since 2023. And that's made even worse when it comes off the back
42:33of a 2025 where Russia seemed to be slowly moving into the ascendancy. It's worth remembering that
42:382023 was also the year that Ukraine launched its counteroffensive against Russia. Though that counteroffensive
42:44was ultimately a failure in terms of achieving the operational goals that Ukraine set, it still
42:48managed to provide Ukraine with a net territory gain at least for a month or two. If that counteroffensive
42:53didn't exist, the first few months of 2026 would officially be the worst that Russia has experienced
42:58during its entire invasion. Let's talk about territory for a moment. Ukraine has been making
43:03things even worse for Russia with a counterattacking push in the south that is designed to ruin Putin's
43:08plans for Donetsk. That counterattack has eliminated the buffer zone that Russia wanted to use to protect
43:13Putin's, well, we were going to say rampaging but stuttering seems like a better word.
43:18Anyway, the stuttering Russian forces in Donetsk were supposed to be protected by the buffer zone
43:22that no longer exists. Now, Ukraine can send troops further north and Russia is being forced to divert
43:28resources and soldiers to handle a push that Putin never saw coming. That push has gained Ukraine more
43:33than 400 square kilometers by March 10th, United24 media reports. And if we move into April, the push
43:39continued as Russia slowed down. That led to Ukraine recording its first net territorial gain over
43:44Russia since the 2023 counteroffensive or August 2024, if we're counting the August 2024 counterinvasion
43:50into Kursk. Either way, it's another record broken for 2026 that Putin didn't want to see,
43:56as Ukraine ended up ahead by 111 square kilometers by the end of the month. We're still waiting to see
44:01if Ukraine can build on this remarkable turnaround in May. If Russia maintains its glacial pace of 53
44:07square kilometers taken per month in Donetsk, our money is on Ukraine. Oh, and just to deliver a
44:12little kick to Putin while he's down, in its May 10th assessment of Russia's battlefield progress,
44:17the Institute for the Study of War said that Russia has failed to achieve any sort of significant
44:21operational progress over the past year. Even the taking of Pokrovsk, which was once seen as a
44:26potential death blow for Ukraine, doesn't mean much anymore, as Russia took so long to take the city
44:31that Ukraine was able to adjust its logistics and turn the Donetsk fortress belt into the death trap that
44:36we see today. Putin should be scratching his head and wondering why this is all happening.
44:41Even if he isn't, the answers are right there in front of him. It's all about drones on a massive
44:46scale.
44:47FPV drones are the main deliverers of death to Russia's soldiers. United24 media says that they
44:52are now responsible for about 90% of Russia's losses on the front and that Ukraine has absolutely
44:57saturated the already lethal kill zones that it had created ahead and behind of the front lines
45:02with these drones. Ukraine planned all of that well in advance. At the beginning of 2026,
45:08Euromiden press reported that Ukraine planned to build around 7 million drones over the course of
45:13the year. Hey, would you look at that? Another record. Though it's a positive one this time,
45:18it's also Ukraine's record, which will leave Putin even redder in the face.
45:23However, for as important as Ukraine's FPV drones have become for everything that it's achieving on the
45:27Russian Casualty Front, the unsung but increasingly important stars of the show are the middle-range
45:32drones that Ukraine has developed. These drones provide Ukraine with a capability that it only had
45:37in limited quantities during the past years of the war with Russia, the ability to strike the Russian
45:42near-rear practically at will. That concept is hardly new for Ukraine, though its strikes in the
45:47occupied territories previously made heavy use of Western-made systems, such as the HIMARS multiple
45:52launch rocket system, as well as air strikes from fighter jets launching guided bombs and missiles at
45:57targets behind the front lines. The introduction of a new generation of middle-range drones into
46:01the mix has been a massive difference maker for Ukraine because they allow for the destruction of
46:06Russian logistical nodes, command posts and so much more of the infrastructure that supports Putin's
46:10forces on the front. The maths here is really simple. Russia minus its rear equals record-breaking
46:16casualties on the front lines. The big difference that Ukraine's middle-range drones make is that they
46:21allow Ukraine to cost-effectively strike against Russia at distances between 20 and 200 kilometers
46:26beyond the front lines. FPV drones can't go that far, and more expensive long-range drones are
46:32better suited for use against targets inside Russia itself. Zelensky recognizes the crucial role these
46:38middle-range strikes play. He's already called them a top priority for Ukraine, and that prioritization
46:43has led to yet another record being broken. In April, Ukraine doubled the number of these strikes
46:48that it conducted when compared to March, and quadrupled them in comparison to February,
46:52Zelensky revealed on May 5th. There's a clear scaling up of a new type of campaign happening here,
46:57so look for more middle-range records to be shattered in May. What we see in all of this
47:01is a true juxtaposition of record-breaking success. Ukraine's records are all positive. More Russian
47:07casualties than ever, net territory gains, and more middle-range strikes conducted are all signs of a
47:12warfighting machine that has momentum. But Russia's records? There isn't a single one of them that is
47:17good for Putin. Russia is losing soldiers at record highs, recruiting at record lows, and,
47:22frankly, failing to achieve anything with the spring offensive. Putin is winning at losing.
47:28He's been doing that since the beginning of his war, but now the numbers are really adding up to
47:32showcase a Russian military that is in severe decline. It's all just so humiliating for a Russian
47:37leader who believes himself to be one of the great military strategists. But we've only touched on the
47:42scale of some of the embarrassing setbacks Russia has experienced over the past few months.
47:45There's a lot more to learn, and it's getting to the point where it's hard to watch how badly Russia
47:49is failing. But you should watch anyway, and you can do that with our video, where we plumb the depths
47:54of Putin's humiliations in 2026. And if you enjoyed this video, make sure you subscribe to the
47:58military show so you can see more of our coverage of Russia's faltering 2026. And thank you, as always,
48:03for watching.
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