Russia turned Kaliningrad into a fortress aimed at NATO’s eastern flank—but now Baltic leaders say the alliance can erase it if Putin pushes too far. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister warns NATO has the power to destroy Kaliningrad’s air defenses, missile bases, and military infrastructure in hours. Is this deterrence, bluff, or a glimpse into NATO’s real war plans? And without the U.S., could Europe actually pull it off? Here’s why Kaliningrad may be far more vulnerable than Moscow wants the world to believe.
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00:00For years, Russia has been using the Kaliningrad exclave to pose a constant threat to the Baltic
00:05region and NATO's eastern flank. But now a warning has been delivered. Play around and you'll lose
00:12Kaliningrad. A key Baltic official has just told Russia that NATO has everything that it needs to
00:18raise the entire Kaliningrad fortress. Putin's grip is starting to slip. If he pushes too far,
00:25Kaliningrad will once again become Europe's Königsberg. It was Lithuania's foreign minister,
00:31Kjastutis Budrys, who made the massive claim. In a May 18th interview, he acknowledged that Putin has
00:36done everything that he can to turn Kaliningrad into a small fortress. Air defenses have been sent
00:42to the exclave, likely in preparation for the sort of aerial assault that NATO would launch against it.
00:47There are missile launchers and much more in Kaliningrad, all of which Putin is trying to
00:51use to threaten NATO's eastern flank. But none of this matters. For Budrys, the key for NATO is to
00:57demonstrate to Putin that the alliance can shatter Kaliningrad whenever it chooses. Then came the
01:02message. NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raise Russian air defenses and missile bases there
01:08to the ground. This isn't a boast. There is no arrogance attached to this statement, as revealed
01:13by Budrys, also noting that NATO needs to take the threat that Russia poses on the eastern flank
01:18far more seriously. What we're seeing here is a flat statement of fact being delivered by a man
01:23who knows that Russia has too much to gain from allowing NATO to believe that Kaliningrad is
01:28impenetrable. At least it's a fact in Budrys' eyes, as he has basically threatened Putin with the
01:33possibility that Kaliningrad can become Königsberg once more. But can NATO really raise Russia's
01:40exclave fortress to the ground? The simple answer is yes, and we'll explain why in a moment.
01:45First, Russia isn't happy about Budrys and his bluster. Just hours after Lithuania's
01:50foreign minister made his comments, Putin sent his favorite mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov,
01:54to deliver a rebuttal. As usual for Russia, it was a statement tinged with hypocrisy and a strange
02:00sort of self-satisfaction that attempts to hide the fact that Russia is more worried about these
02:04claims than it lets on. That statement verges on insanity. I don't think it should be taken seriously.
02:09Rather, this shows the blatancy of politicians over there," Peskov said before adding.
02:14Such blatant politicians can hardly take well-thought-out or sophisticated actions. This is good.
02:19This comes from a spokesperson for a nation that thinks that sophisticated actions
02:23amount to throwing meat into the grinder in Ukraine. And as for blatancy of politicians,
02:28Peskov is no stranger to warning of escalation with the West whenever any hint of support is shown to
02:33Ukraine. Let's come back to Budrys and his comments. Lithuania's foreign minister says that
02:37Kaliningrad is a problem but that NATO can raise it. He's right on both accounts. Kaliningrad has indeed
02:43been turned into a fortress by Russia. And this is work that has been undertaken even before Putin
02:48launched his Ukraine invasion. CNA, which is a non-profit that offers national security analysis,
02:53points out that Kaliningrad's military strength was relatively weak from the 1990s up until 2016.
03:00Then, something changed. In the aftermath of Russia's initial campaign of aggression against
03:05Ukraine, Russia started to reinforce the exclave. That reinforcement escalated in 2021,
03:11as Russia sent the 11th Army Corps into Kaliningrad, giving the exclave a troop presence that numbered
03:16up to 18,000 along with missiles, warships, and other weapons such as tanks, artillery, and mobile
03:22rocket launchers. There are also fighter jets in the oblast, primarily Russia's Su-30, Su-27,
03:28and Su-24 aircraft, and the Baltic fleet, which contains 52 of Russia's surface ships,
03:33regularly stations vessels at the exclave. Putin clearly had plans for escalation in Ukraine,
03:38as we later found out when he launched Russia's full invasion in February 2022.
03:43Everything that he sent to the exclave before that was supposed to bolster it so that Kaliningrad
03:47could be a threat to NATO's eastern flank both before and after the invasion.
03:51The idea was to take Ukraine quickly, turning it into Russian territory that,
03:56along with the public state of Belarus and Kaliningrad itself, would cause serious problems
04:00for NATO. That plan didn't work out because Russia massively underestimated Ukraine.
04:05But Kaliningrad still stands as a small fortress. It's just one that Lithuania's foreign minister
04:10says that NATO can raise to the ground, and he's not the only one. A similar comment has been made
04:15in
04:15the past, only in far more exuberant fashion. Back in October 2025, the former commanding general
04:21of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, rubbished the defenses that Russia has built in Kaliningrad.
04:26If Russia attacked Poland the same way that they attacked Ukraine, they would be destroyed by
04:30NATO air forces, plus NATO land power, Hodges claimed, adding that Kaliningrad would be
04:35eliminated in the first hours of any conflict between Russia and NATO. And it's not just
04:40the exclave that would have to worry. If NATO was serious, Russia would also lose Crimea in short
04:45order, along with its key port of Sevastopol, Hodges warned. There is a caveat here, but we'll get to
04:50that so stick with us. Just a few months before Hodges made his comments, another US official,
04:55commander of the US forces in Europe, General Christopher Donoghue, was saying something
04:59similar. He claimed that the NATO strategy for dealing with Russia on the Eastern Front,
05:03should a war ever start, included the rapid destruction of Kaliningrad.
05:08Standardized systems were already being developed to add to regional defense plans that have been
05:12in place for a long time, Donoghue added, and he pointed out that control over the air and sea
05:17space above and around the exclave would be the key to toppling it. Beyond that, Donoghue didn't say
05:22much else. He wasn't about to give the game away about NATO's plans. Still, we can't help but ask the
05:27question of what NATO's plan would be if it decided that it needed to turn Kaliningrad back into
05:32Königsberg. We have three officials spanning almost a year making the claim that Russia can't do
05:37anything to stop NATO in the exclave. But if that's the case, then what does NATO plan to do?
05:42Those officials might not be talking, but we have some ideas about what the raising of Kaliningrad would
05:47look like. But before we get to that, this is a quick reminder that you are watching The Military Show.
05:51If you're getting value from the channel, remember to subscribe so you don't miss any of our videos.
05:58So, the plan to raise. Here's how it would work. First, a naval blockade would definitely be on the
06:04agenda. Especially if NATO decides not to simply burn Kaliningrad to the ground with aerial firepower.
06:09That blockade would play out in NATO's favors in terms of pure naval power. Russia's Baltic fleet
06:14isn't strong enough to break through, and its Black Sea fleet is locked up in the sea that lends it
06:19the
06:19name as Turkey won't allow warships to transit through the straits that lead into the Black Sea. And even
06:24without that factor, NATO simply has more powerful and modern ships than Russia. It also simply has
06:29more in general, with 2,818 vessels in its naval fleet compared to Russia's 747 per Statista.
06:37Much depends on how many of these ships can actually be deployed into the Baltic region for the blockade.
06:42However, with most of NATO being Europe-based, it shouldn't be too much of a challenge to get
06:46enough vessels in place, especially if NATO is as fully committed to a war with Russia as an attack
06:51against Kaliningrad would suggest it is. Asymmetric warfare would be a challenge.
06:56Russia has learned plenty about using drones to attack targets during its invasion of Ukraine.
07:00However, Ukraine would also be a factor in the raising of Kaliningrad.
07:04If NATO is fighting Russia, Ukraine isn't about to step aside. It will likely send drone experts,
07:09much as it has done in the Gulf region, to help NATO's naval forces deploy interceptors to deal with
07:14Russian Shahid drones. Ukraine would also provide a pipeline to its maritime drones, such as the Sea Baby,
07:19which have already proven how effective they can be at taking out Russian ships.
07:23A third of the Black Sea fleet being downed by Ukraine's drones and missiles can attest to that.
07:28The point of the blockade is simple. Prevent Russia from shipping troops, equipment,
07:32supplies and anything else into Kaliningrad by way of the Baltic Sea. That would leave Russia
07:36with the Szwolki Gap as the only option for reinforcing Kaliningrad beyond what it's already done in the
07:41exclave. But all of this is prep work. The raising itself will be fast and completed as part of a
07:46multi-domain plan. It's a fancy way of saying that NATO would throw everything, including the kitchen
07:51sink, at the exclave to take it down as fast as possible. The numbers game would come into play
07:56again. As long as European NATO is supported by the US, Russia comes second in the numbers game
08:00across the board. NATO has more soldiers, aircraft, ships, artillery, missiles and armored vehicles.
08:06Not all would be needed, at least in the bombardment that cripples Kaliningrad. But the attack would be
08:11brutal and swift. NATO would deploy hackers to jam Russia's radars and command systems.
08:16Electronic warfare systems, likely provided by Ukraine, would be used to send as many Russian
08:21drones off course as possible, with air defenses mounted on ships doing the rest. Any drones that
08:26Russia sends from Crimea or the mainland would also have to get through Ukraine, the Baltic States
08:30and Poland to reach Kaliningrad, so air defenses in those countries would also weaken Russia's counter.
08:35Bombers, fighter jets, submarines and warships could unleash volley after volley of cruise missiles and bombs
08:40against the exclave, much as we saw the US do in Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The goal would
08:46be to hit so hard and fast that Russia is barely able to mount a response. So these strikes would
08:51likely come as NATO is creating a blockade rather than before. The blockade would then stay in place
08:55for as long as is needed, to starve what remains of Kaliningrad of anything that it would need to
09:00even have a chance of launching an offensive of its own. Oh, and Russia has another issue. Kaliningrad only
09:05measures a little over 15,000 square kilometers. That's not a lot of territory to absorb an
09:09overwhelming aerial and naval campaign conducted by NATO. Nor is it all that much territory that
09:15troops sent in on the ground would have to take from Russia. So when Budras and other officials
09:19say that NATO could raise Kaliningrad, they're not lying. NATO has everything that it needs to
09:24wipe Russia's exclave off the map and reclaim it for Europe. But you may remember that we mentioned
09:28a certain caveat that's in play and would certainly impact the possible plan that we've just laid out.
09:33That caveat is the United States. And Budras explains why, stating,
09:37Many of our plans are still based on the assumption that America will provide critical military
09:42capabilities such as satellite reconnaissance. However, if we want to defend Europe independently,
09:46we must rethink everything, including nuclear deterrence. Lithuania's foreign minister is correct.
09:52Much of the type of power that NATO would bring to bear against Kaliningrad relies on the US,
09:56be that on the technological front or in terms of sharing of intelligence. Plus, the US plays the
10:01key role of giving NATO the nuclear deterrent it needs to enable a conventional campaign against Kaliningrad.
10:06Again, Budras highlights that fact, adding,
10:09A nuclear power like Russia cannot be deterred without a nuclear counterweight of our own.
10:13As long as the US nuclear guarantee remains in place, however, we Europeans can concentrate
10:17on the conventional front line. The numbers certainly agree with him. The Arms Control
10:22Association notes that France and the UK, which are the only two NATO members besides the US to have
10:27nukes, only have a combined stockpile that amounts to a tenth of what Russia has.
10:31The US being in the game brings parity on the nuclear front, which means NATO can risk a
10:36conventional assault on Kaliningrad because any nuclear attack by Russia can be met in kind.
10:41But if you take the US out of the equation, then everything changes. European NATO would still
10:46have the firepower needed to take Russia's fortress. However, it would do so while facing
10:50the risk that Russia could reply not with conventional arms but with a nuclear arsenal that vastly outweighs
10:54anything that Europe has. The US counterweight is the big caveat to the Kuliningrad plan,
10:59and that counterweight may not be as reliable as it once was.
11:03On May 19, Defense News reported that the US, under the Donald Trump administration,
11:07is planning to tell its NATO allies that America plans to shrink its pool of military capabilities in
11:12Europe. That claim comes from three unnamed sources, so it may need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
11:17But the gist of America's plan appears to be to scale down the contingent of forces that it
11:21makes available for what is known as the NATO force model. This model is essentially a pool
11:26of forces that can be quickly activated if a conflict occurs. The US may be gearing up to
11:30pull troops and equipment from that pool, which is a rumor that has some credence due to Trump having
11:34previously claimed that he expects Europe's NATO members to take over primary responsibility for
11:39safeguarding the continent. Whether this withdrawal actually happens, and how fast it would be if the
11:44US moves forward with it, is almost immaterial. The key point here, and the one that Budris also makes,
11:49is that the US is essential for the plan to destroy Kaliningrad. Under Trump,
11:54the relationship between NATO and the US has often been rocky. That wasn't helped when no
11:58NATO nations came to support or aid the US during Operation Epic Fury. The Trump administration wasn't
12:03happy about that, despite NATO's other members having no obligation to join the war in the Gulf.
12:08Trump has also claimed that withdrawing the US from NATO is beyond reconsideration, which appears to
12:13mean that he's made up his mind about the US leaving. Of course, it's not as easy as that.
12:18Legislation passed in the US back in 2024 prevents any US president from ordering the withdrawal of
12:23the US from NATO, unless they have either a two-thirds Senate majority supporting the withdrawal
12:27or an act of Congress that permits it. But if the Trump administration finds itself blocked from
12:32outright withdrawal, The Guardian points out it could always pull US troops and commanders from Europe.
12:37But much of this is speculation. But it shows why Budris brings up the importance of the US
12:41to the overall plan for Kaliningrad. Let's assume that the US and NATO will work together,
12:46and the raising of Kaliningrad could be completed. The next question is, will a plan like this even
12:50be needed? Budris appears to believe so. He says,
12:53The idea that a conflict with Moscow would only affect Russia's immediate neighbors is a dangerous
12:57misconception. It's part of Russian propaganda. In other words, Europe and NATO can't assume that
13:03any conflict would be limited to the Baltic region. Kaliningrad will be a problem for the entire Eastern
13:07Front, and if it isn't dealt with quickly, Putin could use it to attempt to take the Baltic
13:11States and create a strong Russian defense that spans across the East. What seems almost like a
13:16military outpost could quickly become much more than an inconvenient neighbor if NATO doesn't act
13:21fast. The Szwolki Gap is a particular issue. Stretching between Lithuania and Poland,
13:26this narrow strip of territory connects Kaliningrad and Belarus. The major concern here is that Russia
13:31might one day launch a two-pronged attack from those regions to take the gap and then expand
13:36both into Poland and Lithuania. Kaliningrad may not be a huge threat on its own, even with its
13:41military build-up, but if you throw Belarus into the mix, then NATO has a problem, and that problem
13:46could quickly become a reality. Belarus' dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced the targeted mobilization
13:52of his country's troops on May 12th, seemingly in preparation for some sort of ground operation.
13:57Belarus and Russia are also taking part in a joint military operation, which began on May 18th,
14:02that appears to involve practicing how to deploy tactical nuclear weapons from Belarusian territory.
14:07The raising of Kaliningrad may become a necessity if Belarus continues on its current path.
14:12It will be much easier for NATO to deal with Lukashenko if he is fighting out of Belarus alone,
14:17than it would be to deal with him if Belarus and Russia are able to take the Szwolki Gap and
14:21create
14:21a two-pronged front on NATO's eastern flank. So the message from Budris is clear. Russia will quickly
14:27find out how vulnerable Kaliningrad is if Putin continues to escalate tensions.
14:31And interestingly, NATO, particularly its Eastern European members, could even claim
14:35some justification for destroying Kaliningrad. Professor John Bryson of the University of Birmingham
14:40in the UK points out that Kaliningrad is something of an anomaly in the geography of Europe.
14:45Extremely compelling arguments could be made for this territory to become an independent city-state,
14:50or even for this territory to be returned to its historic motherland, writes Bryson. That motherland
14:55was once Germany, could now be argued to be Poland. Either way, there are claims to Kaliningrad beyond
15:00Russia, and all of those claims involve restoring the territory to what it once was.
15:05Kaliningrad would become Konigsberg once more if NATO raises Russia's forces to the ground.
15:10If Budris is to be believed, Russia wouldn't be able to do anything to stop it. And it's not like
15:14Kaliningrad is the only territory over which Russia maintains a tenuous grip. Crimea is right
15:19up there with it, having been illegally annexed by Putin in 2014. Ukraine has never let that annexation go.
15:25Now, what was supposed to be Russia's ultimate stronghold is getting beaten down in a liberation
15:30campaign unlike any other. The shattering of Kaliningrad will be quick. In Crimea,
15:35Russia is being dismantled piece by piece, and you can find out how by watching our video.
15:40And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show
15:44so you see more analysis from our channel. And thank you as always for watching.
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