00:00Wouldn't military escalation in the strait open it up?
00:03But it's much more difficult than that.
00:04It is much more difficult.
00:06And you have to realise it's not just the strait itself.
00:08It's the entire Iranian coastline that they have the ability to fire rockets.
00:12They have the ability to launch mines into the water and slow everything down.
00:17And actually, it's insurance that's the problem.
00:20You can declare the strait reformers open.
00:23But unless markets have the confidence that it is, that they won't lose their tankers as they go through,
00:28the insurance costs become far too high for oil companies to pay those costs on their tankers.
00:34And it's that that really is the choke point here.
00:36So we don't even need to see full military action by the Iranian regime in the straits.
00:41We just need the threat of it.
00:42And it needs to be credible.
00:44And as long as that threat remains, it's going to cause problems for insurance companies
00:47and actually getting those tankers through at the scale needed to get the world's economy out of the pressure it's
00:54under.
00:55We'll see you next time.
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