00:00The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, Joe,
00:03take a look at this on the Kelsey marketplace just to win the game.
00:06The 49ers 43% chance, the favorite Los Angeles Rams.
00:11I believe technically the home team in this game,
00:14their yes contract is 60 cents.
00:17Are the Rams going to be one and O after that wild Australian game week
00:21number one?
00:23Yeah. I mean, it is a wild game here, right? And unfortunately, what,
00:28I think this would have been a Rams home game, Donnie,
00:30but they don't really have home field advantage. Anyway,
00:33they might actually have more of it in Australia. But you know,
00:37these week one games, like we've been talking about, Donnie,
00:41they're very much correlated to win total markets, if you like,
00:45because the repricing is going to happen, Donnie. And again,
00:50this is what this is all about. We're buying the repricing,
00:53not about being right. It's about getting it to reprice, buy low.
00:57Go and sell high here. I think the Rams win this game.
01:01I think the Rams are going to be the better team.
01:03I love the off season addressing the secondary,
01:07which was their biggest issue. I like the Rams,
01:10but that doesn't mean that's where the value is.
01:12The value might be in the 49ers because this price might get out of hand,
01:17Donnie, before they kick it off in Australia.
01:20Exactly. No home field advantage. Nobody's played in Australia.
01:23You can't backdate your dad at this point.
01:24And understand this one thing about the NFL.
01:26Most teams don't play anybody until they get to game.
01:29Number one, a lot can happen and change.
01:31And also two division rivals, whoever gets the win in this one,
01:34that's going to be a big leg up on the season.
01:35And if we go to the San Francisco 49ers win totals,
01:38here's some times where the marketplace gets a little wacky.
01:41At this point,
01:42the San Francisco total wins forecast currently right now, Joe sits at 15.1.
01:48What are we 15 and two, Joe?
01:52Stop the madness at this point right now, find and get in where you can.
01:55But I don't know what algorithm came up with a 15 win season.
02:00Look at it.
02:00Look at that thing.
02:0115 wins craters back to 15 wins.
02:04What what's going on here, Joe?
02:06That is that is absurd, Donnie.
02:09We're talking about the 49ers total wins here.
02:12Yet new, yet not going to happen.
02:16Listen, the reality is I think it should be hovering around 10 and a half.
02:20And that's probably just about even money somewhere along those lines.
02:25But the travel schedule here, Donnie, look at that schedule.
02:28It is brutal.
02:29Yeah.
02:29I mean, it starts off with Australia there with the Rams and it doesn't get any
02:34easier here.
02:35And how many more times do we have to see the injuries plague this team before
02:39we're like, you know what?
02:41Let me wait and see what's going on.
02:43I'm more inclined to fade the win total right now than I am to back the over
02:48because I got to see it to believe it with this team.
02:51How about that Rams total here of wins on the season, Joe?
02:5458% here to get 10 or more wins here.
02:5746% chance to get 11 or more wins.
03:00You see the graphic in this one up and down between 11 wins and 10 wins
03:04here, as high as 12 wins, high expectations for the Rams veteran team,
03:08Super Bowl ready, big opening game, Joe.
03:11I think you could pencil them in again, barring disastrous injuries, 10 plus wins.
03:15No doubt about it.
03:17I mean, anything over 11 wins, Donnie, you're asking this team to be pretty much
03:22elite wire to wire.
03:24Again, a big travel schedule and they got to end the season.
03:28I think what, uh, against all the Seattle's and the 49ers of the world.
03:34So it's tough.
03:35I think the better market here, Donnie, instead of the win total market, which I lean towards
03:39the under would be the division winner market here where, cause I do think the Rams are
03:45going to win the division.
03:46So I think maybe that's a better priced market, uh, for the, for the future than their win
03:52total right now.
03:54Yeah.
03:54Fun matchups here in week.
03:55Number one, it continues Sunday, September 13th, 425 kickoff.
03:59Your big battle.
04:01The NFC, the green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings here, new quarterback there for the
04:05Vikings, probably going to be Kyler Mary going up against those Packers.
04:09But the favorite here, the green Bay Packers currently trading Joe at a chance of 54% and
04:14a yes contract also at 54% Minnesota, the dog team, 46% and a yes contract of 49%.
04:22Good little matchup in the North there.
04:24Green Bay, Minnesota.
04:26Always a good man.
04:27Heck of a way to get it going too.
04:29Right.
04:30But yeah, some, listen, if he is truly the quarterback whisperer there in Minnesota,
04:35Donald, we're going to see it here with Kyler Murray.
04:37But we've seen green Bay start slow.
04:41Is Parsons playing?
04:43Is he going to be ready?
04:43Is he not?
04:44Is that defense ready to go?
04:45If not, I tend to lean the Vikings in this spot.
04:49Yeah.
04:49By the way, Minnesota's total wins trending up high, Joe, around 8.7, 8.8.
04:53Now we see it today around 9.4, 9.5%.
04:57So things looking up amazing.
04:58And when you get a quarterback that could be competent as opposed to what you had last year
05:01with McCarthy, things can change for the organization.
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