- 4 hours ago
After a crazy season that's somehow seen 4 different managers, Nottingham Forest look set to avoid a relegation that looked a certainty just a few months ago. Adam Clery looks at what Vítor Pereira has changed in his short time there, and how that's somehow made them the Premier League's leading goalscorers in that time.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel, and just to ease you in, right, this is the
00:06Premier League form table since Vitor Pereira took over at Nottingham Forest.
00:11And you will note, with some surprise I suspect, that not only have they been posting European form in that
00:19time, but they are also the league's highest goal scorers.
00:23Which is mad, isn't it? A team that are still just about in the relegation scrap are the Premier League's
00:30most effective attacking outfit just 10 games after they sacked their previous manager because they could not score any goals.
00:39And you're right, it is a funny old game, isn't it? So let's have a little look here at how
00:43Vitor Pereira has performed yet another miracle.
00:50Now you're a reminder before we begin that ACFC is proudly brought to you by our investment buds at Trading212
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01:01Those are getting worse, we'll hear more from them in a bit, but just to go back to the form
01:05table, right, this is actually what it looked like prior to Pereira coming in.
01:11Like, Forest are out of the relegation zone, sure, but only Burnley have scored less goals than Nottingham Forest, and,
01:18just to remind you, since then, nobody has scored more.
01:23So that does, doesn't it, beg the question, what was going wrong for them?
01:28Because everybody looks at that 0-0 against Wolves, that was Sean Dyche's last game, it got him sacked.
01:33They had 35 attempts on goal, 10 of which were on target, but still did not score, and that was
01:40the end of him.
01:40But thing is, right, I don't actually think that's a particularly good example of what was wrong with Nottingham Forest,
01:46because they actually have some really good chances in that game, like this literal 6-on-1 they somehow managed
01:53to not score.
01:55The better example was, in fact, two weeks before this, when they got beat off Everton at home.
02:01And in that game, right, Forest had Igor Jesus up front on his own, while Everton had a centre-back
02:07pairing of Tarkowski and O'Brien,
02:09who both stuck incredibly close to him, meaning it was very difficult for them to get him the ball,
02:16and yet, they still attempted 52 crosses in that match, as well as countless other long and high balls in
02:26his general vicinity.
02:28And you can say immediately, can't you, that is unlikely to work, and indeed it didn't, even once.
02:36Like, this is really early on, he is isolated, he is on his own, there's nobody anywhere near him,
02:41they stick the ball up in the air and try to progress it, and Everton absolutely gobble that up and
02:47clear.
02:47Now, obviously, what you've got here is a game plan that isn't going to work, but that's okay,
02:53that happens to every single team. That is not necessarily a problem, right?
02:59The problem is that the only way he could think to fix it was to sub off Igor Jesus for
03:05Taiwo Awonyi,
03:06which is about as like-for-like as it's possible to get, and then continue to just do the exact
03:13same thing.
03:13This is from the end of the game, and it's the exact same isolation, almost the exact same ball into
03:20him,
03:21and the exact same result, and that was the problem Forrest used to have.
03:26Their possession always tended to be quite sterile and unimaginative, which meant that their attacking play,
03:33while it definitely did exist, was of always quite low value.
03:37So then, I can hear you both thinking and asking, what exactly was it that Vito Pereira has changed about
03:45all of this?
03:45Well, first up, he resisted the temptation to move them into that 3-4-2-1 he had at Wolves
03:51and does really like,
03:53and instead kept the team, which has largely looked like this, in a formation they are comfortable with.
03:59But the thing is, right, and this is going to sound really weird, so just stick with me,
04:04despite taking this team from being the second worst attacking team in the league to literally, statistically, the best,
04:13Nottingham Forest now create less chances under Vito Pereira than they did the rest of the season.
04:22Now, I'm genuinely serious about this, right?
04:24Forest averaged 12.81 attempts per game before Pereira came in, and they now average 11.1.
04:32And if you can just wrap your head around that for a second, what that tells you is that he
04:36has not made them this wild,
04:38all-conquering creative force, but he has made them just massively more effective.
04:46And honestly, I would say the main thing he has done is he has started to tailor their approach on
04:51a game-by-game basis,
04:53rather than just doing the same thing all the time with the mistaken belief that that will work.
04:59Now, they actually do go to a back five against Manchester City.
05:02They sit incredibly deep, but instead of going route one to try and get out,
05:05they actually run the ball up the pitch to better attack the spaces.
05:10Like, that Gibbs-White goal is mad, but it comes from sitting deep, playing it wide,
05:14and Enya attacking the space down the sides.
05:17Like, it's not rocket science.
05:19Man City leaves space in behind.
05:20You couldn't run into it.
05:21But it is more effective, and not something you would do against a lot of other teams in the league.
05:26Their possession has actually dropped as well.
05:28They've gone from over 48% in the first 26 games of the season, to only 42% since.
05:35So they make less chances.
05:36They see less of the ball, but everything they do is now a lot more considered.
05:43They only had, like, 39% of the ball against Sunderland,
05:46but that is because they turned up with a really targeted model to press them aggressively.
05:52Like, this is the opening minutes at 0-0.
05:54Omari Hutchinson springs a trap on the full-back.
05:57They take the ball back and nearly score.
05:59And then, a few minutes later, the same four players trying to execute the same pressing trap.
06:04They force a stray ball into the middle, get it back, and again, nearly score.
06:09So you can see from the very start of the game, this is what they've turned up trying to do.
06:13It is clearly working for them.
06:15And where, oh where, does that first goal come from?
06:19Robin Roofs has it at the back.
06:20He knows his options are getting closed off left and right.
06:23He plays a risky one into the middle, loses it, and then sure enough, that's them 1-0 up.
06:28And what is genuinely so impressive about their approach in that game
06:32is that this is a team with some of the lowest numbers for passes per defensive action,
06:39for total pressing sequences, for the number of high turnovers.
06:43They are not a pressing team.
06:45But you'd never guess that if you watched this match,
06:48because they had a game plan centred entirely around pressing the opposition.
06:53And that is adaptation on a game-by-game basis
06:57that is specifically designed to play into the strengths of all of these players,
07:02but within the context of the opposition that they face.
07:06Like, it's made them less predictable.
07:08It means they can turn up and do different things.
07:11And it's not the reason they've been banging so many goals in,
07:14but it is the reason why they look like a totally different team now
07:18to how they did at the start of the year.
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09:14Class dismissed.
09:16And you know what? I think that's brilliant.
09:19I think that's excellent coaching.
09:20It marks Vito Pereira out, to me at least,
09:23as someone who was very, very good at his job.
09:27But it still, I don't think explains just all of these goals here, right?
09:33And to explain those, we have to look at somebody else.
09:36And that person is Callum Hudson-Odoi.
09:40Last month, he picks up an injury that ends his season,
09:44and instead of just replacing him like for like,
09:48Pereira decides he wants to try something a little different.
09:52And he decides to go from the 4-2-3-1 that he's pretty much used all season,
09:56that is built around having a big, powerful centre-forward at the very top of the pitch,
10:01to hold the ball up so he can get runners either around or off him,
10:05but still give Morgan Gibbs-White specifically the space in between
10:09so he can feed all three of these, depending on what they're doing,
10:12or drop into the midfield, or provide his own box threat, right?
10:16He takes that and he turns it into a meat-and-chips 4-4-2.
10:22The returning Chris Wood, right, paired with Igor Jesus,
10:27instead of him, that's the correct English,
10:31that gives them a team that can kill you on the second ball,
10:35that can artificially manufacture transitional moments,
10:38and can still play through you if it needs to.
10:42And in truth, it's probably closer to being like a 4-2-2-2,
10:48but you try telling anybody that in a pub and watch how quickly you get laughed at.
10:53And the way it works, right, is you've got two centre-forwards.
10:56Chris Wood remains the focal point,
10:58and Igor Jesus sort of floats in the space just off to the right of him.
11:02And Morgan Gibbs-White, who wants to be a 10,
11:05well, he starts on the left-hand side,
11:07and that allows him to drift all the way over into this space here.
11:11In fact, if we look at his heat map from the Sunderland game,
11:14just overlaid on this,
11:15you can see that, yes, he does get the ball in these wide areas quite a lot,
11:18but he's free as well to get into his most effective zones,
11:22and if he needs to, go across the entire width of the pitch.
11:25So it's still getting the most out of him.
11:28Then the left-back, which is usually Nico Williams,
11:30he can still give you all of that width,
11:32while the right-back can just sort of tuck in.
11:35And you obviously, you've got your right-hand forward over there as well,
11:38and you kind of get that traditional 3-2-5 shape
11:41that a lot of the real top-shagging teams have.
11:44And then, of course, the cherry on the top of this,
11:46which just happens to be made of marble,
11:48is you've got a central midfield pairing
11:50that is simultaneously very, very technical,
11:54but also really aggressive off the ball.
11:57And I know this is the sort of shape you expect
11:59from a team who are very high possession,
12:01very front foot, very dominant in games,
12:04but Forrest have been so good at using it
12:06to actually go direct from back to front,
12:09because now you've got two centre-forwards
12:11who will occupy two centre-backs when they need to,
12:14but then a clutch of players around them
12:16who are very good in sort of like second-ball situations.
12:20Like, this is a wild punt up the field
12:22from the Sunderland game, right?
12:24But notice how, A, Chris Wood is not getting ganged up upon,
12:27so contests the ball a lot easier,
12:30and B, the proximity to him of the two other attackers.
12:34And it's honestly, like, it's a bigger deal
12:36than it looks that moment,
12:37because they go from defending their own box
12:39to having this situation here.
12:42And it's not like their whole thing,
12:43it's not the only way they get the ball up the pitch,
12:47but having the ability to just do that
12:49when you're under a bit of pressure
12:50and you're likely to retain it further up,
12:54that's huge for keeping the pressure off your defence.
12:57And not to keep banging on about that Sunderland game,
12:59but they stuck so many balls into the box.
13:01And unlike the Everton match,
13:03where it got them absolutely nowhere,
13:05here, they either won them
13:07or someone was there ready for the knockdown.
13:10And even against Chelsea, literally the other day,
13:12they changed so many of that starting 11 around,
13:16but the entire ethos of the approach was still there.
13:19They used those two up top to be really direct,
13:22and Chelsea had no answer for it whatsoever.
13:25So yeah, you are maybe looking here
13:27at the best example in football currently
13:30of how less can quite often be more.
13:34Like, this team sees a lot less of the ball.
13:38It's even creating fewer chances.
13:40And yet, they are banging them in like nobody's business.
13:45And yes, okay, a lot of people are throwing around the word
13:50over performance, right?
13:52Because like this particularly mad run here,
13:54where they get 12 goals,
13:56that is off like three and a bit XG.
14:00So that does maybe suggest that this is not going to be
14:03that sustainable, or at least not to this level,
14:06going in to next season.
14:08But what is this?
14:11Horseville?
14:12Because all I see there is a load of naysayers.
14:18The very same people, in fact,
14:20who said last season's over performance
14:22could not get them into Europe.
14:24And of course, it still did.
14:27So clearly, a strength of this group of players,
14:30especially when Chris Wood is in it,
14:32is its finishing.
14:33It's over performing in front of goal.
14:36So, why not?
14:38So, yes, that is how you turn the second worst attack
14:41in the Premier League
14:42into statistically the best attack in the Premier League.
14:46You just literally sit down between every single game
14:50and have a think.
14:51That's it.
14:52That's all you've got to do.
14:53And if you have a think,
14:55you will no doubt come to the conclusion
14:56that you've enjoyed this video
14:57and then subscribe to us here at ACFC.
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15:24Dearly, final thing I want to mention
15:26is if you've got like a 5 or a 10er
15:28burning a hole in your back pocket,
15:30I am doing the Hackney Half Marathon
15:33in 12 days or something like that
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16:00That's the end of the video.
16:02Well done, Forrest.
16:03I've enjoyed that this season.
16:05You've been good fun.
16:06See you next year, season and year.
16:10Bye.
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