00:00Well, let's take stock on this U.S.-China visit. David Satterfield is a former United States ambassador to Turkey.
00:07The meeting is very significant because of the context and the timing.
00:11The president goes to Beijing, where there are a range of issues, economic, security, and certainly the question of Iran.
00:20But that's the rub, the question of Iran.
00:23The president's meeting comes at a moment when the U.S. is caught in this enduring stalemate with Iran over
00:31the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:33Now, China has a strong interest in seeing the Strait opened.
00:38Eighty percent of Iran's exported crude goes to China. China needs it.
00:42There's no doubt that the president will raise the issue of Iran in the Strait with Beijing.
00:47But all of this presents a situation in which the president of the United States comes to China essentially as
00:55a supplicant, not as the demandeur.
00:58The Chinese hold the upper hand here.
01:01What has changed since that last meeting?
01:05What has changed is the dominance of China in the global market at what we would call the highest level,
01:13the cutting edge.
01:14The visit by the president, the discussions he will have with Xi, don't constitute trade negotiations in a classic sense.
01:24They require extraordinary effort over time to present cases that then can produce countervailing duties, countervailing tariffs to try to
01:36rectify or pressure to rectify trade imbalances.
01:40But that's not what is likely to happen here.
01:43So what can we realistically expect from this visit?
01:49I think you can expect that the Chinese will indeed indicate to the president that they also wish to see
01:57a cooling of tensions in the Gulf.
02:00They want to see the Strait of Hormuz opened.
02:03They want to see dialogue.
02:05These are classic calls by the Chinese.
02:08On AI tech chips, I suspect there will be an announcement of deals.
02:13Those typically follow visits by the president.
02:15How important is that meeting the leader face-to-face, shaking hands rather than virtual diplomacy?
02:25Is that significant?
02:26Sure it is.
02:28It's very important.
02:29But it's important that that face-to-face meeting, the shaking of hands, is accompanied by a detailed agenda, by
02:37a strategic approach,
02:39and by the U.S. side, for which I can speak, knowing in advance what it wants, what its priorities
02:47are, and what it's prepared to settle for.
02:49Not just its top line, but its bottom line as well.
02:52If you go into meetings like this, for all the benefits of face-to-face encounters, without that preparation, the
02:59results don't tend to be good.
03:01Now, China knows the president cannot afford a confrontation with China in the midst of the confrontation with Iran.
03:11That gives them an enormous advantage.
03:14And frankly, if I were to have been asked about the timing of this meeting, my recommendation to the president,
03:22to any U.S. president in this situation, would be don't go now.
03:27You go in a weaker position, and China in a strengthened one.
03:32Let's pick up that point.
03:35What does Trump need to get out of this visit?
03:40Something other than the appearance of failure, to put it bluntly.
03:46His minimal need is to be able to somewhat credibly present the outcomes as a positive success.
03:55And not something driven by Chinese priorities, Chinese demands to which he has exceeded.
04:03I suspect the rhetorical gloss by both sides on this meeting will be more performative than substantive.
04:12What's the most important thing that could come out of this discussion?
04:15Very frankly, the most important thing is China acknowledging that the closure of the strait is a problem for them
04:25as a global trader,
04:27as well as for the international market they trade to, and some action on that part.
04:32But again, whatever China is willing to do, the ability to impact this Iranian regime is going to be limited.
04:39Mr. Ambassador, thank you.
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