00:00How serious do you think the damage to the global economy has been so far from this war?
00:07Well, I will give you a typical economist answer.
00:12It depends.
00:15It depends on, let's say, whether we are on a very short-term scenario,
00:23i.e., no big development from where we are now,
00:30whether we are on a sort of medium term or whether we are on a more long term.
00:35And to put it very simply, the damage we have already if operations restart tomorrow,
00:47meaning navigation through the almost strait,
00:52is to the tune of 0.2% of world growth,
00:57which is heavily focused on Asia and Africa.
01:04If this situation of blockage is there for a few more weeks,
01:12it's probably doubling the damage.
01:17And if it was to be a question of more monthers,
01:23it's again doubling the damage.
01:26And that translates into, let's say, very simple oil prices.
01:31Around $80 is the first scenario, the shorter one.
01:36Around $100 is the second scenario, a sort of medium-term one.
01:43And the third one is, let's say, above $150 or $120.
01:48So this is a very, very, very serious situation.
01:53You don't need to have any consideration.
01:54So these are the ways to do some of the different ways of doing this.
01:55And that's the way you're getting the attitude.
01:55You can define the attitude that you're making.
01:56You can see.
01:57And it's a very, very, very easy.
01:57You can see.
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