Market Prediction_ क्यों बार बार अटक रहा Nifty, शोमेश कुमार के पसंद के सेक्टर जिनमें बनेगा पैसा

Nivesh Manthan

आज के शेयर बाजार में क्या हो रहा है? निफ्टी और बैंक निफ्टी किस दिशा में बढ़ रहे हैं? इस लाइव मार्केट एनालिसिस में हम बाजार की हर छोटी-बड़ी मूवमेंट को समझेंगे। हमारे खास मेहमान Shomesh Kumar आज बताएंगे महत्वपूर्ण लेवल्स, ट्रेडिंग रणनीति, और किन स्टॉक्स में आज बड़ा मौका बन सकता है। इस लाइव सेशन में निवेशकों के हर सवाल का विशेषज्ञों द्वारा जवाब दिया जाएगा। चाहे आप डे-ट्रेडर हों या लॉन्ग-टर्म निवेशक, यह विश्लेषण आपके लिए बेहद उपयोगी है। जुड़े रहें और मार्केट की ताज़ा अपडेट्स पाएं।  📌 Nivesh Manthan — Your Investment Partner!  शेयर बाजार और म्यूचुअल फंड्स की आसान भाषा में समझ चाहते हैं? यहाँ पाएँ — 📈 Latest Market Updates 📊 Nifty–Bank Nifty Analysis 📚 Technical & Fundamental Insights 💡 Smart Investing Tips  🎓 Paise Ki Paathshaala – Investor Education Program  Market ko samajhna ab hua aur bhi aasan! 👉 Telegram: https://t.me/NiveshManthanAdive  👉 Arattai App: https://aratt.ai/@niveshmanthan  🎙️ Expert Guidance  Bazaar vishleshak ke saath samjhiye market ki har chal, trend aur sahi investment opportunities.  📺 Subscribe Now – Apne financial goals ko reality banaiye!  📌 Daily Updates: Follow Us  🔵 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/niveshmanthan  🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/sharemanthan  📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/niveshmanthan_/  🌐 Visit Our Websites  https://www.niveshmanthan.in/  https://www.sharemanthan.in/  शेयर बाजार में निवेश और ट्रेडिंग जोखिम के अधीन होते हैं। सही जानकारी, उचित विश्लेषण और डिसिप्लिन के बिना लिए गए निर्णय नुकसान का कारण बन सकते हैं। इसी उद्देश्य से हम आपके लिए आयोजित कर रहे हैं Stock Market Weekly Analysis Webinar, जहाँ बाजार की चाल को शैक्षिक (Educational) उद्देश्य से समझाया जाएगा।  यह पूरी तरह मार्केट अवेयरनेस और नॉलेज शेयरिंग के लिए है। इसमें दी जाने वाली जानकारी किसी भी प्रकार की Buy/Sell/Hold Recommendation, Assured Return, या Investment Advice नहीं होगी।

Transcript

00:00Hello, I am Rajiv and the market analyst associated with me is Shumesh Kumar Shumesh ji, hello you are very welcome.

00:08Today you are seen in a completely colorful environment, which means do you want to completely confuse the audience that the same

00:15what the

00:29Let's go, it is normal for me that when it is weekend, I start leaving the office after a long time.

00:39It has happened that if I stay at home on weekends then such an atmosphere does not arise, everything is fine in the office.

00:44It seems lively, but when will the market come alive?

00:50Your performance is your getap, that is lively, when will the market become lively, we have to go to Philotegi from Agashya Vanstack

01:03Let's go, Nystack has reached an important milestone, it is quite overbought, so a �

01:19But right now I will tell you a lot and then I will try to summarize it. Nasdaq is very

01:29Important milestone is lovely, it is quite and bot, from here in my estimation there should be a correction and but its

01:48Now it seems that the range that must have been in Battit sometime will have to be combined to subscribe to Nastek.

02:03Plus the range is still visible what is happening is the impact of NASTEC I think Agya

02:11But the Dow Jones, which has so far

02:15Nastec Stager who is unable to subscribe will have the possibility to perform in the future whose contribution is in the Aspy Funded

02:24At this junction, these indices are standing in such a place where for a short time

02:45We will scream at home, subscribe to 7 hearma, so live long but Nifty is there, now we will take this matter from here.

02:57You humni and pli

03:00That in its context we can see that Mik Idhya is happening now see Midh

03:10Which is your latter half of the pattern, this pattern should either breakout towards 25,000 plus

03:19Or just in case, if this is your low, then the low is around 27,800.

03:30If it breaks, the correction of lower top and double top will push it a little further down.

03:36Now I am bringing this second scenario because I have told you the situation of NASDAQ and Dow Jones.

03:44tell me

03:45If we take a view on that situation, then this view is also a possibility, as long as

03:54It is unlikely to close above 25,500 again.

03:58So let's get clarity on this thing that is happening in NASDAQ and Dow Jones because of that

04:06It is possible that

04:07We can take a consolidation or cool off structure until Nifty crosses 25,500.

04:16off as of today I don't have below 23,500

04:21Around that, I am keeping this correction or consolidation till the end, beyond this range we get fresh evaluation.

04:31This will have to be done in every situation, now this has happened in Nifty, this can happen to Nifty.

04:40Is

04:40A similar situation is developing in Nifty Bank as well, when we come there then these five will be squeezed out.

04:46So when we go into Nifty Bank, what you'll see is a kind of lower top with

04:56Doji's, both these tops, higher and lower up, see the latest one, make both kind of doji candle.

05:02In such a scenario there is a possibility of correction but there is a possibility of running correction and that is running correction.

05:12I am not taking it below 53,500 again.

05:17So now if we add all five and drink Nifty, then we will drink Nifty Bank, if you want one cut each, then first

05:25Now let us discuss Nifty in detail, in Nifty it is 24,500 on closing basis.

05:34An important resistance will form

05:37If this does not work out, then consolidation will continue in the range of 24,500 to 23,500 in the range of 1000 points.

05:47Maybe for a short time this is the essence of all this, our nifty

05:56But this is your entire hypothesis that since NASTEC has reached an important place and there it

06:04Correction may come and because of this we may also get corrected a little in his sympathy but this

06:10Sympathy has already been broken, which means we are no longer as fast as they are.

06:26We have our own problems but since they are our problems, we do not mind getting involved in their downturn. Subscribe always.

06:35It happens that their etrate is running India means no AA I, so if etrate reversal happens

06:43Then India's

06:44People will note that I don't understand why there would be a reversal of an AI trade.

06:53If AI is going at the level then there is no correction, hence there is less correction anywhere in any market.

07:12Shumesh in any market if

07:14Major beneficiaries: Some sectors become very profitable and tax running is imposed on them, people withdraw money.

07:20So where do you take the money? It goes into sectors that are not very popular. So if you are global

07:26If we look at the situation, if Nasdaq

07:41The money from correction does not go anywhere else. Running correction does not happen in any country in any index.

07:48The money that is in any index will remain there, there will be a backlash, the money comes out at the lower level when any

07:58in any country index

08:01Or the final, the climax, comes, and the money leaves from there and goes to another country.

08:10Which happened in China at one time and then it happened in India at another time, when India's Nifty

08:17One six became expensive, so I left from here and went to Shanghai, a

08:31In the running correction, you will see that there will be no impact on the currency, most of the money will flow out from there.

08:39Its sector may turn like I said if Nasdaq goes into a running correction but Dow Jones may

08:46that whatever you

09:00It is ready for running correction and its money will not go out and if it gets rotated then it should be done now.

09:11At present, there is a running correction in the clouds of Hamir and due to this, some of its shadow is falling on us also.

09:17If it is about Asan then you have

09:30We will take it till there and then re-evaluate it but if this is the latest top

09:38It is built around twenty-four Pank Sou. If there is any possibility of going above it, then will it be done?

09:44facing a lot of resistance

09:59You are talking about this gap which is almost like a broken egg, so you must have done it earlier also.

10:08If I had collected a thousand then the level of fifty thousand and one cycloses then the under movie average gap, all these things

10:14His point is that

10:29But we have to move ahead with this feeling in our mind that maybe he can walk here too and see us.

10:37can be found

10:41We won't discuss it in detail, let's just look at it; here is the monthly chart in front of you.

10:47The first thing I would ask you after seeing this monthly chart is, okay, here's a trend line.

10:56continued to work upwards as resistance

10:58And the latest resistance also came from there but after confirming the bottom it is now moving back.

11:04So may I ask you that yes, this index which is around 56 thousand right now, is that a strand?

11:11Moving towards the line, accompanied by Shapan

11:15Is it going to go up to 63-64-62 somewhere or 62-63 on the upside?

11:27Actually, my focus in Bank Nifty is directly on 85,000 or above and there

11:37You have to keep an eye on it because the kind of construction you have, a lot of water will flow in the beginning.

11:41Yes, you have to understand that if you have gone into banking, when the run comes, you will not be able to go into banking.

11:50If you look at the chart, you might remember that once I reacted a little when a lot of people

11:57The focus was that Korea was so

11:59I am giving so much money to the person giving the money when I told him that you have a bank account with us.

12:10The run is such that once it starts, I want to see it again.

12:31If we go to the upper end of this trend, by the time it reaches here, the upper line

12:37By then the case would have come somewhere between 63-64, then yes it is possible that I

12:44I will also work on it but I have not worked on the bank in such detail yet.

12:58Even now they give homework, people come and ask questions on stocks, I get homework on that too and

13:05I work here last time also, there was a discussion on stock, I worked on that at home.

13:09I went and worked on what the possibility was.

13:26You guys give a lot of homework from here and this is the challenge for me, I have to learn from it.

13:33So now Bank Nifty

13:38See what are the possibilities of Bank Nifty

13:45The most important thing to understand is that Bank Nifty has had a very good cycle around 6000.

13:52And that is why you are seeing so much correction, after that this correction which is fifty thousand

13:59has turned towards

14:00Yes, it has removed all the heat, it is very good. Now you asked about the tollgates, how will the tollgates be?

14:07So at 85,000 I can see the cycle culminating above that also but its movement which you

14:13This is going to be my inside

14:41Due to the geopolitical situation that has arisen since then and the dent it will cause on our balance payment, the bank

14:49And due to the impact on the currency, the banks will go into the situation and there is no clarity on this matter right now.

14:56will find that in

14:59There will be stress in banks now but once this clarity comes, in the future, banks will

15:05If a new high is made then the new high will not be made for two to three percent, if a new high is made

15:11So I think it's at least 10-

15:14to 15% and then stop only then, in that case you may also get this breakout

15:19So, in my estimation, whether it will stop above 62,000 depends on how fast it moves.

15:27It comes from where it is okay or not or there it is again

15:43If you have made 25,000, 80,000, 85,000 like this then many people have started thinking this.

15:54Now how will money be generated in banks? It has been generated, people are tired, it will not be generated, but I am saying this.

16:03That right now there is no immediate clarity as far as auto pharma companies are concerned.

16:15But if we talk about the three- and five-year range, then

16:20There is no dispute because till then, before the next general elections, 85,000 means 85,000 banks

16:27Discussion on that, okay, so if the time horizon is good

16:33If it is very long then good expectations will be placed on the banking sector as well, so in the beginning we have said four

16:40You can also add banking to the aport stage if your investment time is right.

16:49The one that is there is tall and it's fine

16:50So first of all let's talk about what we do with the letter A.

16:59Officer and former have come out, we should do it for three drinks, the mentioned number is phone

17:20Even in auto, if you put a chart of auto index, you will see that it forms a bottom.

17:27If it is moving towards a new high, then the auto index is also moving towards a new high with time.

17:34There is a move in it and after that if a fresh cycle is to come then what

17:48If it crosses, it can go up to around 30. The second index which we will raise from here.

17:56You can take out auto and ancillary in all these, you can also look at small cap, secondly pharma

18:05If you apply pharma index then you will get

18:18Nothing means I did nothing and if this moves then understand it now.

18:28Up to 20% movement can be made in this index and it can be made in financial

18:34This is the only other index that focuses on this, so twenty percent of it means that from here

18:41You are looking at approximately 30 points and this

18:45It is possible, Rajiv ji, there are chances of that, that is why I am saying that nothing has happened for the last two years.

18:51If he is an under performer for two years, then twenty percent of him has a big problem and he can move at that speed comfortably.

18:57should be from

18:59The third index we have to look at is if I talk about pharma, then always keep in mind that pharma

19:09And then healthcare comes, take both of them together, thirdly we will talk about capital goods.

19:17Ki dir enough indication

19:20There is a big open cycle, there will be capital goods, there will be private capital, this dilemma will not happen.

19:30It will be built for a very long time and will still be there, but what is visible here is a new capital goods

19:39with a bicycle or

19:50This is the capital good index. When the cycle comes, it makes you rich and the cycle

20:00When it ends, it cries so much, it cries so much, it cries for two to three years.

20:06But in the same region, I feel that it will not be immediate, but there is enough indication that it will be like two thousand.

20:12The four-year cycle of twenty to twenty-four had come, it did not last that long, that was a big aberration, Vikas Covid.

20:20I had a correction, according to me it was like a dhaai

20:34Another segment that people are paying a lot of attention to is the Fever Indices which have made a long run.

20:52I am not saying that power indices will not work but the amount of power demand that is being talked about

20:58More facilities should be created than that

21:02So this power index can give you one more cycle and even if you lose it after that, it will still be very

21:07Kerpal, but here also you have a monthly chart in front of you and here you have a one-sided view like

21:16We saw in the chart that the Dozer was ranging from twenty to four.

21:26There are Covid-19 cases and from there you can make a move to Sitamar 222, after that it is quite a good one.

21:32There was a good correction and this big T was seen taking a different turn from there.

21:43It's been a very tough month, so

21:50Now a month is left, so a lot can happen in it, then something like we have done from 2020 to 2022

21:58And then between 2023 and 2024, let's see if a similar plan will come again with more power.

22:06Before taking the final terminal point, Raji ji, you were saying so I

22:19A big run is possible in power as a capital goods and your index is eight thousand.

22:31You can roughly understand that there could be a rally of up to eight to three thousand points, even from here.

22:42So there can be a good gain in this too, but when I go to see the stocks in power, then so many

22:48Richly validated that there is pudding in it.

22:56In power also a battle capital should be made like jaggery, so these are some selected areas on which Nader

23:04If you keep it then you can take advantage of it, now Shomesh ji has his own restrictions, otherwise I would

23:09I ask him to tell me his name also but

23:11Ji will not mention your name on his behalf in the Lakshman Rikha that he has tied in his name.

23:17But still, if we have to filter it out, how will we filter out the power which is connected to the ground.

23:24The focus has been on that from the beginning.

23:40If there is any problem in all these companies then the distribution in Hampo Better Option is also very good and its

23:53Apart from the rest of the above discussed like power, pharma and health care or capital goods and so on

24:01From

24:02And how to do the filter in auto and in auto also in auto, in pharma also in health care

24:11In this as well as in capital goods, because if we just identify the segment and try to move ahead from there,

24:18If we don't choose the path

24:32If the internal combustion engine shuts down, then there will be a problem in ice, as per the demand we are seeing right now.

24:39In all the data points coming in, there is a lot of demand for AVs in two-wheelers and passenger vehicles.

24:46It is coming, that is

25:00But vehicles are increasing a lot in today's time and twenty years ago and in 2020

25:10If you look at the technological changes that have taken place in the later vehicles, then all the suppliers in your ancillary

25:20which automates things

25:26You can put it in all those places, you should go and see in auto, the traders should save their shame.

25:34You can do this which is happening in the year as of today, there are some stocks in which it is being seen

25:37That can give a return of around twenty percent from the reserve

25:44It is around 12 months but to earn big returns we

25:49will have to go and after this if we go into pharma and health

26:00If we look at Ker, how to choose Raji G Pharma

26:18Even now Mr. Donald Trump will be around for three more years or he will not be able to live, hence invest in pharma.

26:26If so, this is a good place to look for things that have at least 80 percent

26:33Plus domestic business

26:36You will get it in pharma, you will get it in AP I, you will get CV Moo, you will get it in many places, in that there is pharma retail.

26:45You will get it in that, you will get it in diagnostic, you will get it in that, in which you will get a lot of space to do it and along with that when

26:55In health care

26:55When it comes to choosing, what to look for is your diagnostics in healthcare, pharma retail.

27:02If all these hospitals come up, then we will have to keep the hospitals in trading and there too we will be rich.

27:09Valations are

27:10Or if we keep it in tactical Y, then the investment opportunities there are in retail pharma and diagnostics.

27:20I have to proceed with caution in these two segments, especially the hospital segment, where there is a lot of quality play.

27:28is today's

27:41Absolutely, and then when we talk about the infrastructure of capital goods, this is also such a segment.

27:47There is a high risk of getting trapped if you do not choose correctly.

27:52How to avoid it, how to be alert

28:06And everyone knows in bidding that whenever it happens, the margin gets hit and there is a lot of mess here.

28:14It happens, then the example is just for example because you will not give recommendation on that but still

28:21If we take the example of Alenti, then

28:36You can get whatever you want but when we go to filler then like we have components in auto

28:46Similarly, you will have moulding companies, refractories, linings, which are supposed to be capacities.

28:53There is a new

29:04There you have molding people, pump people, many of them who will come in your ancillary.

29:14If the matter escalates further, you should invest less in the long run but in the company that provides the equipment.

29:32We will focus on the parts supplied to itni. That's absolutely correct and it has two advantages.

29:39First, realization is quick and second, margins are better.

29:46So this time, please pay attention to the selected teams or segments which Shomeshji specifically told you about.

29:55You can provide Parma and Healthcare products to your Cattle Goods Pay Siruts

30:12So you reminded me well, so in front of you I saw that there was a place in this too, so this

30:23Four themes and four sediments have to be monitored and Meshi explained how to filter them out.

30:29Gave

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