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Clash Of The Superpowers Ameri Episode 1 Engsub
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00:04Xi Jinping and Donald Trump the leaders of the world's most powerful countries are locked in a
00:11high-stakes battle for global power and influence it's a fight that's threatened to explode since
00:19Trump first took office tore up the diplomatic rule book and smashed the consensus on free trade
00:26we lose almost 500 billion dollars a year with China and we want to know what's wrong with us
00:34we are about to help President Trump affect the biggest shift in U.S. foreign policy since the
00:40end of the Cold War now with both sides staking their claims on different parts of the world
00:46this is the story of how these two superpowers have become tangled in a struggle for economic
00:51supremacy with repercussions everywhere we have to realize there's this crisis and we have to take
00:58action to change the alternative is total defeat we'll hear from top U.S. officials and Chinese
01:06academics who give the inside track from Beijing when the president's off the handle you don't know
01:14what's going to happen as well as those caught in the middle of this dangerous standoff the message
01:21from the White House was the president of the United States wants you to choose and he wants you to
01:27choose America
01:46a few days before Donald Trump was first sworn in as president Xi Jinping headed to the Swiss Alps
01:54the leader of the world's largest communist country was there to join the business and political
02:00elites at the annual world economic forum this is first time president Xi attended so China want to
02:10make a clear point where we stand on international economic system
02:19Davos is an extraordinary environment it's jammed solid with the world's political leaders bankers financiers
02:29this year in particular was extraordinary because Trump was about to be inaugurated and many of us were quite alarmed
02:42we had never seen a politician like Trump nobody know his quality how he operates
02:50Trump was clearly turning his back on free trade and open markets the traditional American mantras that
02:59had led the free world for for decades and then enrolls president Xi in a magnificent piece of theater
03:08and delivers a speech which says essentially I am the custodian of free trade and open markets
03:40I never thought in my lifetime to see a communist leader actually to defend the free trade
03:46but remember free trade is good for China the other thing is to remind Trump that this is your system
03:54you created to benefit you and also benefit the rest of the world
03:58so you better keep it don't abandon the ship you are the captain
04:06people didn't know whether he was taking the mickey a little bit at first it was such an extraordinary counterintuitive
04:15speech for Xi to be making
04:18follow me work with me to ensure that we don't allow anyone in brackets incoming U.S. President Trump
04:26to trample down this magnificent free trading structure that has made us all so much more prosperous
04:37he saw an opportunity and he took it it was a brilliantly crafted intervention and it completely stole the show
04:46Xi was the toast of Davos
04:50Quite a journey for a man who'd become leader of the Chinese Communist Party
04:55the CCP only four years earlier
05:03he'd take an office promising to build on a booming economy and to reclaim China's centuries-old place as a
05:10leading nation of the world
05:12he called his vision the Chinese dream
05:28The Chinese dream is that China will restore its previous position
05:36It's not China will dominate or try to take over the world
05:43In the West the press call it rise of China which is a total misnomer
05:50Xi make a point saying this is a restoration not rice
05:55Please welcome the next President of the United States Mr. Donald J. Trump
06:02Now Trump was heading to the White House with his own promise to make his country great again
06:09His victory followed a campaign where he put China front and center of his foreign policy
06:15In his own unique style
06:17We can't continue to allow China to rape our country and that's what they're doing
06:24It's the greatest theft in the history of the world
06:30One of the first times I briefed President Trump was during the campaign
06:35I get about four sentences into my briefing my brilliant briefing on China
06:39And then Donald Trump with like a staccato approach starts firing questions at me
06:46What's China's GNP?
06:48What's the trade and balance between the United States and China?
06:51Is there military any good?
06:54And then I realized he cared about the balance of payments
06:59He knew about tariffs
07:01He understood the business aspect of the relationship
07:07For many decades we've made other countries rich
07:11While the wealth strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon
07:19U.S.A.
07:21He paid attention to a group of people
07:24What we call our Rust Belt is the former manufacturing part of the United States
07:28He was the only candidate who recognized their legitimate pain
07:31and the only candidate who had a solution
07:33which is we're going to go
07:34and renegotiate all those trade deals with China
07:38Together we will make America great again
07:43Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America
07:56I remember walking into the executive office building one day into the Trump presidency,
08:01and there's a big sign that lists all the meetings that are being held. And one of the titles is
08:07something like, let's talk about greater U.S.-China economic integration. This is a day into the
08:13Donald Trump administration, and he's just won an election with a significant part of his agenda
08:19being to fight off China's economic predation. And people in his bureaucracy, in his building,
08:26are having meetings about how we could do more economically with China.
08:32I was surprised by some of the assumptions that were being presented by longtime diplomats,
08:40long-time intelligence officers and others. There was a view that really all that Beijing
08:47wanted at the end of the day was just to access a large American market and to prosper and thrive
08:53in a U.S.-dominated world order. I thought that those assessments were out of date, to put it mildly.
09:04In the 80s and 90s, the Chinese Communist Party had opened the country to Western markets.
09:10Part of what they called socialism with Chinese characteristics,
09:16the country enjoyed unprecedented growth, which was given a huge boost in 2001,
09:22when China was welcomed into the WTO, the World Trade Organization.
09:29It defined China as a developing economy, meaning trade rules were applied more leniently,
09:34while the world's biggest companies continued to flood into the country.
09:39I was there as a reporter for Reuters news agency, all the way from the late 90s until 2005.
09:49It was a heady time. It was hard not to feel optimism that China would continue opening up,
09:59that its marketization would continue. And there was a hope the politics would begin to moderate as well.
10:09But by the time I left, I had this sinking feeling that many of those optimistic assumptions were going to
10:19be dashed.
10:23I think China entered the WTO with a really good deal.
10:27They got the benefits of participating in a global trading system in which there were rules and norms,
10:34but it was given a special carve-out where it could pretend that it was a developing country,
10:40which I think is always tough when you're one of the world's largest consumers of Ferraris and Lamborghinis.
10:46It's entirely logical and sort of expected that Beijing would want to maintain that system.
10:56Coming into the White House, Trump's team included hawkish advisors
11:00who wanted to ensure the new president would deliver on his promise to take on China.
11:05But they knew that for all of Trump's tough talk, he had a reputation to protect as a champion of
11:12business.
11:13And he wanted to keep the CEOs on side, many of whom had moved manufacturing to China.
11:22In the White House, we had the two camps start to develop.
11:25The more globalist establishment camp and more the kind of disruptors, populist nationalist camp.
11:34The biggest fights were about China and trade.
11:37And that's because the reason is we had so many Wall Street guys.
11:41And look, I worked at Goldman Sachs. We had Goldman Sachs guys in there.
11:45Goldman Sachs and Wall Street is the investor relations partner for the Chinese CCP.
11:51This radical cadre that runs China.
11:55The chief amongst the Wall Street faction was Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs and Trump's choice as
12:03his top economic advisor.
12:05As a market practitioner, I think that we can have a globalized world that works well.
12:14You want to expand your plant? Or when Mark wants to come in and build a big massive plant?
12:20Or when Dell wants to come in and do something monstrous and special?
12:27You're going to have your approvals really fast. Thank you, sir.
12:29The question is, can we both be complementary to each other?
12:34I think the answer is yes.
12:38Whether the Hawks or the globalists would have their upper hand would be put to the test at Trump's first
12:44summit with Xi.
12:46As he got ready, the U.S. president was briefed by his national security advisor.
12:53President Trump is kind of reflexively contrarian.
12:56And because he's reflexively contrarian, if you advise President Trump and say, hey, everybody agrees.
13:02This is what you should say.
13:04He might just say the opposite to spite everybody.
13:07So what we decided is what we would emphasize with President Trump is what Xi Jinping wants him to say.
13:13And let President Trump be contrary to Xi Jinping rather than to his advisers.
13:23What we said to President Trump is how Xi Jinping uses this language that sounds nice or at least innocuous.
13:30And when the Chinese Communist Party officials say win-win, what they mean is they win twice.
13:36Xi arrived in America hoping Trump might back down from the aggressive threats of his campaign.
13:42Xiiseen是這樣.
13:43Xi Jinping
13:43You know, for people in China, basically, we know every election there is always a bad st compromising China element
13:49somewhere.
13:50A lot of name-calling, a lot of blaming.
13:53I think also the advisers that he was using at that time was very hawkish like Steve Bannon, Matt Puttinger
14:00and all those people.
14:01But then, normally when the new administration come into the White House, it becomes more, you know, pragmatic.
14:09President Xi attached great importance to the personal relationship.
14:14His personality is, he's very easygoing.
14:19He wants to make friends, and when he recognizes the other side as a friend,
14:25I think that will be very helpful for the bilateral relations.
14:31Trump had chosen to host Xi not at the White House,
14:34but at his Palm Beach resort, Mar-a-Lago.
14:39President Trump, he fancies himself as a great negotiator,
14:43and part of that is separating the relationship
14:45from the tough issues you're negotiating.
14:48Thank you, President. Thank you.
14:50He's in the hospitality business.
14:52He had his granddaughter, was learning Chinese,
14:58singing a Chinese folk song.
15:05This is a great move. It's very positive.
15:09It's like a family reunion.
15:16One of the biggest parts of Mar-a-Lago was time set aside
15:22for the two heads of state to be alone one-on-one.
15:25The two spent a vast amount of time together.
15:29And the main message the president was delivering to us
15:33is that, you know, he and Xi were hitting it off.
15:38It seems they like each other.
15:41Yeah, chemistry is good.
15:44We've had a long discussion already.
15:48And so far, I have gotten nothing.
15:51Absolutely nothing.
15:53But we have developed a friendship.
15:55I can see that.
15:56And I think...
15:57You know, President Trump, he's a New Yorker.
15:59I'm a New Yorker.
16:00And New York men of that certain age,
16:03they tend to say, he's my best friend.
16:04He's a pal of mine.
16:07And they were not really friends.
16:08They've just met each other,
16:09and they probably have business interests together.
16:11But it doesn't mean they're golf buddies.
16:13So when President Trump says, oh, he's my friend,
16:16I think what that meant is that President Trump met him,
16:18he understands how he's going to negotiate with him.
16:20Thank you, everybody.
16:21Thank you very much.
16:28Xi wasn't only relying on his budding relationship with Trump.
16:32He'd long been working to ensure China would be
16:35at the center of global trade with or without America.
16:40A month after Mar-a-Lago,
16:43he played host to leaders from around the world
16:46to celebrate his flagship initiative.
16:49Belt and Road.
16:58Harking back to the ancient Silk Road between East and West,
17:03Belt and Road aimed to better link China with the world,
17:06financing huge infrastructure projects.
17:11One of the most ambitious schemes ever conceived.
17:15It spanned continents with over a trillion dollars spent.
17:21Showcasing China's ability to deliver world-leading feats of engineering.
17:27Now Xi put on a summit befitting its scale.
17:32The Chinese do know how to put on a show.
17:35The biggest rooms you've ever seen.
17:37Vast banqueting tables.
17:39You know, more flowers than they've got in Kew Gardens.
17:42To invite President Xi to the podium.
17:46President Xi decided to make a Belt and Road Summit
17:49to assure the world if the U.S. is back to the protectionism,
17:54China is still there to help and to work with everybody.
17:59Well, the road is important in the demonstrating to the American president
18:04or American government
18:08that China could have alternative
18:11if Western countries decide to block or slow down
18:15Chinese economic activities.
18:26Cutting a somewhat lonely figure at the summit was the U.S. Representative Matt Pottinger.
18:32One of the things that Beijing does is to try to create the sense
18:37that the Communist Party's success is inevitable.
18:40So come jump on the bandwagon.
18:45They wanted to assemble as many world leaders as possible
18:48to essentially endorse Belt and Road.
18:54I remember speaking to President Trump explaining that Belt and Road
18:58was actually a system designed to diminish the influence of the United States.
19:05It was an extremely opaque system whereby governments would have to surrender sovereignty over critical infrastructure
19:16as collateral in case they weren't able to pay back debts.
19:22And so it was really sort of a form of loan sharking on a global scale.
19:29Pottinger's line didn't go down well with the other attendees.
19:33One of them was Kenya's president,
19:35whose country had just that month opened a multi-billion dollar new railway,
19:40largely financed by China.
19:43Kenya took a big loan to build the Standard Gauge Railway,
19:48and it was never going to be easy paying it.
19:51But was there a Chinese debt trap? No.
19:55African countries are caught in a debt trap, but it's not of Chinese making.
20:00The predominant amount of money owed by African states
20:04is owed to Western governments and private banks.
20:09The Americans were uncomfortable with any Chinese initiative that looked as though it had a strategic dimension.
20:15And this clearly was a strategic project.
20:18It was about projecting Chinese influence, securing Chinese supply lines,
20:23and securing export routes as well.
20:27The same day that Xi was hosting his guests in Beijing,
20:32Trump's new trade representative was being sworn in.
20:38Robert Lighthizer had spent years accusing China of breaking trade rules.
20:42Thank you all very much for being here. I'm very grateful for your friendship.
20:46He quickly summoned top officials to the West Wing.
20:50The senior people were there, and a lot of them were in the direction of,
20:54well, we have to have dialogue, we have to tell the Chinese what we want,
20:58all these kinds of things.
20:59You know, I said, you know, I don't agree with any of this.
21:03The Chinese game plan has been dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk,
21:10and then don't do anything at all.
21:14Lighthizer's strategy was to tax goods coming to the US from China.
21:19But his plans ripped open divisions with the Wall Street faction in the White House.
21:25I wanted tariffs on as much as we can to change the economic relationship between the United States and China,
21:32to force companies to come back to the United States or to find other places to manufacture.
21:37But there was an organized group who's against tariffs.
21:43I thought there was more question to who we were hurting and who we were helping by putting tariffs on.
21:52Lighthizer started to get to the president and say,
21:55Mr. President, your voters, the people who trusted you, expect that this is going to get done.
22:02It's not getting done not because you don't want it to get done.
22:06It's not getting done because people on your team are deliberately obstructing your order
22:12to bring China to account for what it's done to the American people for 30 years.
22:18And the president said, I'm not going to let people delay anymore.
22:25Trump gave Lighthizer the green light to launch a major investigation into China's trade practices.
22:31Thank you very much, Ambassador Lighthizer.
22:34Especially claims it was forcing U.S. companies to give up blueprints for their most valuable technology.
22:40We're going to be fulfilling another campaign promise by taking firm steps to ensure that we protect
22:47the intellectual property of American companies and very importantly of American workers.
22:53American companies were desperate to do business in China.
22:56And the Chinese would say, you can enter the Chinese market, but you have to allow us access to your
23:04proprietary technology.
23:05Well, when American companies did that, very quickly they found that that technology belonged to their Chinese partners.
23:12And then they would go flood the market with these products at a much cheaper rate,
23:18put American businesses out of business and dominate the global supply chains.
23:25The investigation could pave the way for wide-ranging tariffs on China.
23:32Economists believe that tariffs are going to raise prices and lead to inflation.
23:37Even if you bought the idea, what's the alternative that we teach our children Chinese and tell them to prepare
23:45for a life of servitude?
23:48We have to realize there's this crisis and we have to take action to change.
23:53And if there's some small cost associated with it, the alternative is total defeat.
23:59And that's not an option.
24:04In Beijing, Xi was showing no sign of making concessions.
24:12Although China's phenomenal growth was slowing, his ambition remained resolute.
24:28In a three-hour speech to the annual party congress, he described 5,000 years of China's great imperial past,
24:38before the century of humiliation that started with the Opium Wars of the 19th century.
24:46Before British came to invade the Opium War, I'm talking about 1820s, 30s, Chinese economy is 32.5% of
24:58global GDP.
24:59When communists took over in 1949, Chinese economy less than 2% of global GDP.
25:06That is a freefall disaster.
25:09At the time Xi Jinping announced the China Dream, we are about 12 or 15% of GDP,
25:16which means if you compare with the 1830s, we still have a lot of room there.
25:25Three weeks later, Trump arrived in Beijing for what the Chinese were calling a state visit plus.
25:33With the threat of tariffs looming large, this was a chance for Xi to win round the US president.
25:41Xi wanted to make it as spectacular as possible, for obvious reasons.
25:49Everybody knows that Trump liked spectacle.
25:56He likes, well, being treated like a king, maybe.
26:02We talked to President Trump about the images that Xi Jinping would try to create.
26:07He would try to make it seem like the leader of the free world, President Trump,
26:12was coming to Beijing to kowtow, you know, to the emperor, you know, to Xi Jinping.
26:23Picture yourself as Nero, the emperor of Rome, and you want to impress somebody.
26:31What would you do?
26:33It was everything you can imagine.
26:39Everything from music, to singing, to dancing.
26:47They really pulled out all the stops and it was impressive.
26:55Perhaps most extraordinary, Trump was invited to dine in the Forbidden City.
27:04Forbidden City means forbidden.
27:08Historically, this is a residence of emperor.
27:13This is an extraordinary honour.
27:16Chinese are not even allowed to go.
27:19So it's quite amazing to treat Trump that way.
27:23That's something. We're having a great time. Thank you.
27:27I don't believe Putin even get that treatment.
27:31Earlier that day, Xi had even given Trump a personal tour.
27:36But not everyone was welcome.
27:40As President Trump was about to be escorted through the Forbidden City,
27:44before I understood what was happening, I was diverted before I could get into the gate.
27:52Matt Ponger is like the man who knew too much.
27:55And he really would make the Chinese leadership very uncomfortable.
27:59I mean, here's a guy who's fluent in Mandarin and knew the Chinese Communist Party so well.
28:05When we get to the Forbidden City, I'm looking around.
28:08Where's Matt Ponger? He's not there.
28:10The one guy who can actually speak the language and know something about this system has somehow been kept out.
28:22The imperial setting was the perfect spot for Xi to give Trump an education on China's historic place in the
28:29world.
28:30And I guess the oldest culture, they say, is Egypt at 8,000.
28:35Yeah, 8,000.
28:37IJ, IJ, IJ.
28:38IJ, IJ.
28:38IJ, IJ, IJ.
28:38IJ, IJ, IJ.
28:39IJ, IJ.
28:40IJ, IJ, IJ, IJ.
28:49IJ, IJ, IJ, IJ, IJ, IJ.
28:54And people like us, we've traced back to 5,000 years ago.
28:58We call ourselves the
29:02The people going down from..
29:08That's good.
29:10Xi's charm offensive looked to be working, as the leaders and their teams sat down in the great hall of
29:16the people.
29:17Our meeting last night was absolutely terrific.
29:24Our dinner was beyond that.
29:27Then Trump turned to his team.
29:30The president, after the first two or three statements,
29:34asked me to address the trade issue.
29:38I didn't have a script.
29:40I didn't know for sure that I would be called on.
29:42Lighthizer is really the trade war warrior for many, many years,
29:48so Chinese know that.
29:50His basic argument is familiar,
29:52but the way he presented it is quite,
29:56I would say, quite aggressive from a Chinese point of view.
30:01Lighthizer couched his presentation
30:03around the practices of forcing the transfer of intellectual property.
30:08So he just went through many of these practices with such clarity
30:12I think it was arresting to Xi Jinping and the other officials there.
30:18I basically made the argument that we were the victim here.
30:22It wasn't China.
30:23And it can't continue and it won't continue.
30:27And I think that was a little befuddling,
30:30like, what's going on here?
30:35But the Chinese hosts weren't done yet.
30:39Trump had traveled to Beijing
30:41with dozens of American business leaders in tow.
30:44In front of the cameras,
30:46they signed more than $250 billion worth of deals with China.
30:55China was quite generous
30:57to really make all those things happen.
31:01Shows that China is really willing to collaborate with U.S.
31:04Dallas, the president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes
31:06and Mr. Jia Baojun.
31:08That was really a big boost for President Trump
31:11and he really had a big harvest for his first trip to China.
31:16Donald Trump wanted to show the American people
31:19that during his visit to China,
31:21he got something for, you know, America.
31:24And this was something really tangible
31:27and right in his wheelhouse.
31:30Now Trump had his chance to talk directly to the press.
31:34I don't blame China.
31:41After all,
31:43who can blame a country
31:45for being able to take advantage of another country
31:49for the benefit of its citizens?
31:51I give China great credit.
31:55He turns to Xi Jinping and goes,
31:57for all this here,
31:58I don't blame you.
31:59I blame us.
32:01But in actuality,
32:03I do blame past administrations
32:06for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit
32:09to take place and to grow.
32:12It was very Trumpian
32:14in that it was simultaneously gracious to the host,
32:16but also had a sharp edge to it.
32:19In spite of all the flattery and the rest,
32:22he was not going to back off his demands
32:24for a really significant shift
32:26in that economic relationship.
32:28When that shift did not materialize,
32:31President Trump resorted to a trade war.
32:34Here's what's on the power lunch menu.
32:36President Trump hitting China
32:37with $60 billion worth of tariffs,
32:40raising fears about a global trade war.
32:43In March 2018,
32:45Lighthizer's report was published.
32:47It says the economic harm to the U.S.
32:49of unfair trade practices on intellectual property
32:52is in the range of $50 billion.
32:54And so it plans to try to recoup
32:57some of that cost with these tariffs.
32:59Trump announced tariffs on Chinese exports,
33:03particularly those the U.S. said
33:05use stolen technology.
33:08China would respond in kind,
33:10sparking a tit-for-tat escalation
33:12that spiraled over the coming months.
33:15If they charge us,
33:17we charge them the same thing.
33:20That's the way it's got to be.
33:22Trump was smashing decades
33:24of Washington consensus on trade.
33:27Earlier that month,
33:29Gary Cohn resigned.
33:30The only thing the tariff was doing
33:33was acting as a consumption tax
33:38to the U.S. consumer
33:40that bought that good from China.
33:45I can remember talking with business leaders
33:48and investors
33:48and many folks assuring me
33:51that there's no way these tariffs
33:53could stay on more than three or four months
33:55because it would be too harmful
33:57to the U.S. economy.
33:59And I can remember telling folks
34:01that I think we're actually
34:02much more in a new normal
34:04just because they have a business model
34:06that works really well
34:07that the rest of the world
34:09should just stay static
34:11so that they can benefit from that
34:13isn't a realistic perspective to have.
34:16And that's tough to hear,
34:18particularly when you're a powerful company,
34:20you've been kind of a master of the universe,
34:23but that's the reality.
34:26Trump's team now had to face officials
34:28from Beijing.
34:30The Chinese really were taken aback.
34:33They didn't think that Trump
34:35would really go ahead with the tariffs.
34:38They had a sense for a long time
34:40that it was a bluff.
34:43You know, they had signed
34:44this $250 billion worth of deals
34:46just back in November.
34:48You know, that was a serious amount of money
34:50and they thought, you know,
34:52they had done the necessary
34:53and didn't understand why,
34:56you know, it wasn't working.
35:01As America and China braced
35:03for what could be a costly trade war,
35:07Xi put on a show of strength.
35:10Within weeks of the tariffs being announced,
35:13he donned military fatigues
35:14to preside over a massive naval parade,
35:17the largest of its kind
35:19ever conducted by the Chinese.
35:22It took place in the South China Sea,
35:25a crucial shipping corridor
35:26where China was building artificial islands
35:29to back up its claims on the area.
35:32Claims rejected by most countries,
35:34including the U.S.
35:37He says he wants
35:38a modernized military by 2035.
35:41He wants a world-class military
35:44by 2049,
35:46which means pretty much
35:48he wants to displace the United States
35:49from the Indo-Pacific.
35:51They want to defend all the waters
35:53surrounding China
35:54and manage the trade
35:55and everything passing through them.
35:58This was China
35:59interrupting
36:00and trying to change
36:01international rules and norms
36:03that we felt
36:04that we couldn't tolerate.
36:07The situation was becoming
36:08more and more dangerous
36:09as U.S. ships and aircraft
36:12continued what they called
36:14freedom of navigation exercises.
36:17U.S. military aircraft
36:19POP-8 Alpha.
36:20This is the Chinese U.S. reef.
36:22China had 70 of the national islands
36:24including U.S. reef
36:25and its adjusted waters.
36:27Leave immediately
36:27and keep far off
36:29so that we avoid any misstanding.
36:38Tensions were high
36:39as world leaders arrived in Argentina
36:41for the annual G20 summit.
36:44It would be Trump and Xi's
36:46first meeting since Beijing.
36:49The U.S. president
36:50had a new national security advisor.
36:54I thought this was obviously
36:56a significant opportunity
36:58to make points about
37:01things that concerned us
37:03about China's aggressive behavior
37:05along its periphery
37:06and talk about
37:08the big strategic issues.
37:09What Trump mostly wanted
37:11to talk about though
37:12was trade.
37:15By now the U.S.
37:17had ramped up tariffs
37:18to hit
37:18$250 billion worth
37:20of Chinese goods.
37:24Trump was threatening
37:25to go even higher.
37:28But Bolton feared
37:30the prospect of a trade deal
37:31with China
37:31might soften Trump's resolve.
37:37The two leaders
37:38met for dinner
37:39on the sidelines
37:40of the summit.
37:42This was the first time
37:44I had seen them together.
37:45It was unnerving
37:47to watch Xi
37:49in a very systematic
37:51thorough way
37:53advance what were clearly
37:54his well thought out objectives
37:57and to watch Trump wing it.
38:01The relationship
38:02is very special
38:03the relationship
38:03that I have
38:04with President Xi
38:06and I think
38:07that is going to be
38:08a very primary reason
38:09why we'll probably
38:10end up
38:11ending up
38:11getting something.
38:13Xi had come to the meeting
38:15with a headline
38:16grabbing pitch.
38:17If the U.S.
38:18would hold off
38:19further tariffs
38:20China would commit
38:21to buying U.S. goods
38:22and services
38:23worth over a trillion dollars.
38:27Chinese site
38:28for example
38:28Walmart
38:29and other
38:31successful retailers
38:32how they're successful
38:34because of
38:35Chinese made in China.
38:37So that is
38:38what the argument
38:39they are making
38:40saying you might
38:41end up hurting yourself.
38:45I was worried
38:46throughout the dinner
38:46that we were basically
38:47going to agree to things
38:49and indeed
38:49Trump did make
38:50concessions
38:51in terms of
38:51not putting tariffs
38:53in place
38:53that he had threatened.
38:55so that we could have
38:57good trade discussions
38:58with China.
39:00A truce in the trade war
39:02was agreed.
39:06But just then
39:07news came through
39:08that had the potential
39:09to undermine
39:09any goodwill.
39:12I hear my phone ringing
39:13I look down
39:13and it's my
39:15colleague
39:16at the Justice Department
39:18and I don't normally
39:20get calls
39:20from the Justice Department
39:22and he informed me
39:23that they're going
39:24to exercise
39:25an arrest warrant
39:26against the chief
39:27financial officer
39:27of Huawei
39:28as she goes through
39:30at Vancouver Airport.
39:31I immediately
39:32think about
39:33how this is going
39:34to be interpreted
39:35as a deliberate snub
39:36and a deliberate
39:37affront
39:38to the Chinese
39:39counterparts
39:40and how
39:42this will throw
39:43a wrench
39:43into what the president
39:45is trying to achieve.
39:46And let's get back
39:46to the big story
39:47this morning
39:47weighing on futures
39:48with big implications
39:49for the U.S.-China trade
39:50truce and relationship.
39:51Canada has arrested
39:52the CFO of Huawei
39:53who also happens
39:54to be the daughter
39:54of the company's founder.
39:56Meng's charges
39:56were part of
39:57a sweeping set
39:58of criminal charges
39:59by the Trump administration
40:00unveiled yesterday
40:02accusing the company
40:03of stealing trade secrets
40:04and violating sanctions.
40:06We all hear the news
40:07we were surprised
40:09because while we're
40:11shaking hands
40:11on the table
40:12the U.S. is kicking
40:14us back
40:15under the table.
40:17We knew
40:18for some time
40:19before
40:19that Meng was coming
40:21it was imperative
40:23that not leak out.
40:25John Bolton
40:26had been told
40:27that Meng's arrest
40:28was imminent
40:28just before
40:29the dinner with Xi.
40:31He decided
40:32not to inform Trump
40:33until it was made public.
40:36On the flight
40:37back to Washington
40:38I explained
40:39what had happened
40:40in Canada
40:41and what would
40:42flow from that.
40:43He didn't really
40:44have much of a reaction
40:45to Meng's arrest
40:46when I briefed him on it.
40:49Officially
40:49the Chinese government
40:51isn't directly
40:52linking Meng's arrest
40:54to the trade negotiations
40:55just yet
40:56but unofficially
40:57in the state media
40:58this is being seen
40:59as a political decision.
41:06Trump had a Christmas dinner
41:08in the East Room
41:08for his top
41:10White House staff
41:11and at one point
41:13out of nowhere
41:14he said
41:14by the way
41:15why did we arrest Meng
41:17the Ivanka Trump
41:19of China?
41:20I thought
41:21maybe first
41:22I would say
41:22you didn't tell me
41:24that Ivanka
41:25was a spy
41:25and an agent
41:27of our government
41:27but I didn't
41:28fortunately for me
41:29probably.
41:32telecoms giant Huawei
41:34was a shining example
41:36of Xi's vision
41:37for China
41:37to dominate
41:38technologies
41:39of the future.
41:40It had become
41:41a battleground
41:42with the Americans
41:43who placed restrictions
41:44on the company
41:45citing fears
41:47China could use
41:48its equipment
41:48for spying.
41:51Meng's high profile arrest
41:53only raised the tensions.
42:13with relations
42:15between the superpowers
42:16deteriorating
42:17other countries
42:18were finding themselves
42:19caught in the crossfire
42:20and not just over Huawei.
42:24The British Chancellor
42:25got a taste of this
42:27when he addressed
42:28that year's Belt and Road Forum
42:29and the British Chancellor
42:31The speech lauded the scale
42:34and ambition of the project
42:36and the Chinese delivery of it
42:38but said explicitly
42:40that if this is going to work
42:41it's got to be very careful
42:43about the debt burdens
42:44that recipient countries
42:46are taking on.
42:48I was invited
42:50to the heads of state lunch
42:52which was hosted
42:53by President Xi
42:54and he just lashed into me
42:57saying this was
42:58none of my business
42:59and the Belt and Road
43:02was China's project
43:03and China would run it
43:05in the way that China
43:06chose to run it.
43:07So it was quite a moment
43:09being given
43:10a finger-wagging lecture
43:12by President Xi.
43:16Returning to London
43:17Hammond would find
43:18that the fallout
43:19wasn't over.
43:22So I get a call
43:23from the White House
43:25I get the Deputy National
43:27Security Advisor
43:28on the phone
43:29and he says
43:31we'd like to talk to you
43:32about your speech.
43:33We had seen a speech
43:35that Philip Hammond
43:36had just delivered
43:37that it appeared
43:39to be an endorsement
43:40of China's debt trap diplomacy.
43:43So it was a bit cheeky
43:45but one of my colleagues
43:46from the State Department
43:47printed out Hammond's speech
43:49on a poster board
43:51with some of the key phrases
43:53that looked like
43:54they'd been taken straight
43:56from Beijing's propaganda
43:57highlighted.
43:59A meeting was set up
44:00and somebody came over
44:02and arrived in my office
44:04in number 11.
44:05He laid them out
44:07in my office
44:09in Downing Street
44:11along the wall
44:12so that all the text
44:14of the speech
44:14was there
44:15and I was asked
44:16by the Americans
44:16to justify the...
44:20to explain
44:21my thinking
44:23behind the less critical
44:25parts of that speak.
44:27I'd said
44:28from the outset
44:30the UK cannot be
44:32in a position
44:33of having to choose
44:34between the world's
44:35largest economy
44:36and the world's
44:37second largest economy
44:38and that was what
44:39I told the Americans.
44:41The response I got
44:42was
44:43that is exactly
44:45what the President
44:45of the United States
44:47wants you to do.
44:48He wants you to choose
44:49and he wants you
44:51to choose America.
44:56Trump now ramped up
44:57the pressure even more.
44:59He signed an executive order
45:01preparing the ground
45:02for a total ban
45:03of Huawei equipment
45:05in US systems.
45:07and the Americans
45:09set to work
45:09persuading other countries
45:11to follow suit
45:12beginning with
45:13their closest ally.
45:17We had to start
45:18with the UK
45:19because in many ways
45:20the UK's
45:21position as sort of
45:22a cyber security
45:23and telecommunications power
45:25GCHQ
45:26is seen as sort of
45:28world class
45:28and that was allowing
45:30everybody else
45:31to essentially
45:32point to and say
45:33well GCHQ says
45:34it's okay
45:34so why are you
45:36America making
45:36a big deal
45:37about this?
45:42The position
45:43of the British
45:44government
45:44was very strongly
45:46against making
45:46any significant
45:48changes to Huawei
45:49and we met
45:50with a lot
45:51of resistance.
45:52Philip Hammond
45:53the Chancellor
45:53of the Exchequer
45:54and others
45:55were very strong
45:56on that.
45:59The message
46:00from the White House
46:01was
46:02we want Huawei
46:03out
46:04get it out
46:05and tell
46:06these Europeans
46:06that they've got
46:07to toe the line.
46:09The Chinese
46:10had made this
46:11a totemic issue
46:13that if we cut
46:14Huawei off
46:15there would be
46:16significant trade
46:18and other consequences.
46:21So we very much
46:23squeezed in the middle.
46:26as Trump arrived
46:27for a long
46:28promised state visit
46:30the Brits
46:31hoped to convince
46:32the Americans
46:32that they could
46:33keep Huawei
46:34out of the most
46:35sensitive parts
46:36of their network.
46:38Our security
46:40experts
46:41essentially said
46:41we've engineered
46:42the systems
46:42in a way
46:43that the Americans
46:44are overstating
46:45the risk.
46:47We had
46:48very deep
46:49concerns
46:50and plenty
46:51of evidence
46:52that there
46:53were back doors
46:54there were
46:55software
46:55and hardware
46:56vulnerabilities
46:57that would
46:58make it
46:59fairly easy
46:59for data
47:01to be
47:01siphoned out
47:02of those networks.
47:04They thought
47:05they could
47:05protect
47:06telecommunications
47:07in Britain
47:07and we simply
47:08didn't agree
47:09with that.
47:10There was this
47:11tension between
47:12our security
47:12experts.
47:14Ours were clear
47:15that we could
47:16manage any risk
47:18from Hawaii.
47:19It was never
47:19in the core
47:20of our infrastructure
47:21only in the
47:22periphery
47:23and they
47:24didn't agree.
47:25Our main point
47:26is that this
47:28is not a
47:28technical discussion.
47:30This is a
47:31policy discussion.
47:32Right?
47:33We felt that
47:33they simply
47:34did not want
47:34to re-examine
47:36the decision
47:36because changing
47:38their decision
47:39that they had
47:39made before
47:40would likely
47:42entail
47:42retaliation
47:43by Beijing.
47:45We explained
47:46to Trump
47:46how our network
47:47was configured
47:49differently
47:49from the
47:50American network
47:50that we were
47:51very confident
47:52that what we
47:53had was a
47:53robust system
47:55but he was
47:56not listening.
47:57In fact,
47:58most of the
47:58time when you
48:00engaged with
48:00the president
48:01there was no
48:01sense that he
48:02was actually
48:03listening to
48:04what anybody
48:05else was saying.
48:05He was simply
48:06preparing for
48:07the next sentence
48:09that he was
48:10going to say.
48:12We said to
48:13each other
48:13that this is a
48:14foretaste of
48:15Huawei.
48:15We're going to
48:16be here a lot
48:17in the future.
48:18we're going to
48:18find plenty
48:19of issues
48:20where the
48:21Chinese are
48:21squeezing us
48:22from one side
48:22and the
48:23Americans from
48:23the other.
48:24Not just the
48:25UK, but all
48:26the middle
48:26ranking powers.
48:31The Brits
48:32stood firm on
48:32Huawei for now.
48:35It was some
48:36of Trump's aides
48:37who worried
48:37their boss
48:38might not
48:38stick to his
48:39guns.
48:42I felt that
48:44it was important
48:45to impress on
48:45Trump that if
48:46we were going
48:46to take strong
48:47measures against
48:48Huawei, this was
48:50not something to
48:51give away later.
48:52This had to be
48:52the beginning of
48:53a strong and
48:55consistent policy
48:56because to
48:57Trump, everything
48:58is negotiable.
49:00Everything is a
49:01bargaining chip.
49:04While Trump
49:05was in the
49:05UK, in
49:07Hong Kong,
49:08thousands joined
49:09a vigil to
49:10mark 30
49:10years since
49:11China's deadly
49:12crackdown on
49:13pro-democracy
49:14protesters in
49:15Beijing's
49:16Tiananmen Square.
49:18The vigil took
49:20place in the
49:20midst of a
49:21growing wave
49:21of protests
49:22against a new
49:23law that
49:23would make
49:24extradition to
49:25mainland China
49:25easier.
49:28Normally,
49:28every fifth
49:29anniversary of
49:30Tiananmen, the
49:31White House, would
49:32put out a
49:33statement on
49:33behalf of the
49:34president.
49:34And I had
49:36given Trump a
49:37draft statement
49:38that would
49:39commemorate the
49:4030th anniversary.
49:41And Trump said,
49:42I'm not going to
49:43put it out.
49:43And I said, but
49:45we always put it
49:45out every five
49:46years.
49:47And if you
49:47don't put it
49:48out, it will
49:48look like we're
49:49not concerned
49:50about what
49:51happened to
49:51Tiananmen or
49:52what it represents
49:52for the future
49:53of China and
49:54Hong Kong.
49:55And he said,
49:56I don't care.
49:58Trump sees
49:59international
49:59relations through
50:00the prism of
50:01of his personal
50:01relations.
50:03He thought Xi
50:04would take
50:05offense if we
50:06put out a
50:06statement by the
50:07president on
50:08Tiananmen, and
50:09he wasn't going
50:09to do it.
50:12Within weeks,
50:13as the protests
50:14in Hong Kong
50:15grew, the
50:16authorities responded
50:17with brutal
50:18force.
50:25It was against
50:26this backdrop
50:27that Trump would
50:28next meet Xi
50:29at that year's
50:30G20 summit.
50:37The U.S.
50:38president was
50:39facing further calls
50:40to confront him
50:41about Hong Kong
50:41and China's wider
50:43human rights record,
50:44including the
50:45treatment of Uyghur
50:46Muslims in Xinjiang.
50:48As he landed,
50:49he took a call from
50:50the Speaker of the
50:51House.
50:54Well, since you're
50:55at the G20,
50:56you're in Asia,
50:58isn't it remarkable
50:58what's happening
50:59in Hong Kong?
51:01Millions of people
51:02are in the streets
51:04demonstrating for
51:05democracy.
51:07I'm sure G20 won't
51:09say anything about that
51:10because she is there.
51:13But I think it would be
51:14great if you could say
51:15something to him
51:16that the House
51:18and the Senate,
51:20Democrats and
51:21Republicans,
51:22have voted
51:23in favor of the
51:24Uyghurs.
51:27There's always a
51:29summit dinner
51:29at these G20 summits,
51:31and typically it's just
51:32the leader of each
51:34country and their
51:34spouse if they're there.
51:37One of my staff
51:38talked to the
51:40U.S. interpreter
51:41who was with Trump
51:42who reported that
51:43he had a conversation
51:44with Xi Jinping
51:46and talked about
51:47the Uyghurs,
51:48and Xi defended
51:49against charges
51:50that these are
51:51essentially concentration
51:52camps.
51:53And he said the
51:54Uyghurs appreciated it.
51:56They liked it.
51:57It was a good thing
51:57to do.
51:58And Trump basically
51:59said, well, then
52:00go ahead and do it.
52:03Next day,
52:04he calls me back
52:05and he said,
52:06I mentioned Muslims
52:08to President Xi,
52:10and he said they like
52:11being in those
52:12labor camps.
52:19China's record on
52:20human rights was
52:21never going to be
52:22top of Trump's
52:22agenda.
52:24Trade negotiations
52:26had ground to a
52:27halt, and election
52:28year was fast
52:29approaching.
52:30A trade deal with
52:31China could be a
52:33vote winner in the
52:34manufacturing and
52:35agricultural heartlands
52:36of America.
52:38You know, we've had
52:39an excellent
52:40relationship, but
52:42we want to do
52:44something that will
52:45even it up with
52:46respect to trade.
52:47I think it's
52:48something that's
52:48actually very easy
52:50to do.
52:51Trump basically
52:52said to Xi, look,
52:53I want to win this
52:54election and I need
52:55the farmers' vote,
52:56and you can help me
52:56out on that.
52:59And indeed, the trade
53:01negotiation then
53:02turned into how many
53:03tons of soybeans are
53:04they going to buy
53:05next year.
53:07At that point, the trade
53:09is mostly focused on
53:11Chinese buying things
53:14on a massive scale.
53:30Xi Jinping had great
53:32skill in flattering
53:33Trump, and Trump
53:34responded as he often
53:37did with flattery of his
53:38own.
53:39So he took the
53:42calling Xi king, and
53:45in Osaka, it got
53:47even worse.
53:48He told him at one
53:49point, you're the
53:50greatest leader in
53:51contemporary Chinese
53:52history, and 30
53:53seconds later, he
53:54said, you're the
53:54greatest leader in all
53:55of Chinese history.
53:57So we waited to see
53:58how Xi would respond
53:59to Trump.
54:03But he didn't call him
54:04the greatest leader in
54:05all American history.
54:06He just pocketed it
54:07and the conversation
54:08went on.
54:19At home, Xi appeared
54:21more powerful than ever.
54:24Later that year, he
54:25took center stage as the
54:27Chinese Communist Party
54:28celebrated 70 years of
54:30rule in China.
54:33A statement of power in the
54:34face of the Hong Kong
54:35protests.
54:59Unlike Trump, Xi didn't have
55:02to worry about elections.
55:03Xi didn't have to worry about
55:04elections.
55:05In fact, China had abolished
55:08term limits, meaning he
55:10could now remain president
55:11for life.
55:14And when it came to
55:15negotiating with Trump, the
55:17Chinese were increasingly
55:18confident that by playing
55:20the long game, they would
55:21ultimately win out.
55:24China understood Trump's way
55:27of operating as a
55:30professional wrestler.
55:32Start opening
55:33saw bow, it's always
55:34outrageous, frightening.
55:38If you chicken out, then he
55:41will push even more.
55:42If you know you have
55:45capacity to stand up, he
55:47will come down.
55:49While Xi was parading his
55:51military might, his
55:53negotiators were putting
55:54the final touches to a
55:55trade deal with Trump.
55:57It was optimistically
55:59named the Phase One
56:00Agreement.
56:01Trump would sign it with
56:03China's vice premier to
56:05much fanfare.
56:06The U.S. agreed to ease
56:08tariffs on China.
56:11In return, China pledged to
56:13buy hundreds of billions of
56:15dollars of U.S. goods.
56:17But Trump didn't get the
56:19major concessions on China's
56:20trade practices he talked
56:22about on coming to office.
56:24It's a relief from the
56:26Chinese side because we
56:27had a very, we have
56:29a tension, you know.
56:31And January 2020, it's less
56:33than one year ahead of the
56:34general election.
56:36We believe we would have a
56:37relatively stable bilateral
56:39relations in that year and
56:41if President Trump won
56:42the election, it would pave
56:43the way for the second
56:44term.
56:48It's important to remind
56:49yourself that it's not
56:51possible to have an
56:53agreement between the United
56:56States and China that's going
56:58to resolve the problem of a
56:59Marxist-Leninist country that
57:01wants to be the number one
57:02country in the world.
57:03It's like you can't imagine an
57:05agreement between the United
57:07States or the West and Soviet
57:09Union that would have resolved
57:11the fact that they want to take
57:13over the world and we don't
57:14want them to, right?
57:16Today we take a momentous step,
57:19one that has never been taken
57:20before with China.
57:22But what these agreements can
57:23do is stop movement towards a
57:25hot war, which would be a
57:26catastrophe.
57:27Nobody's ever seen anything like
57:29it.
57:29This is the biggest deal there is
57:31anywhere in the world by far.
57:34Trump had his deal.
57:37But as he talked it up, the
57:39world was about to be hit by a
57:40catastrophe that few saw coming.
57:43One that would bring the U.S.
57:44and China closer than ever to a
57:46new Cold War.
57:50China plague.
57:52That's where it comes from.
57:53They say, please don't mention
57:54China.
57:55I say, why?
57:55That's where it comes from.
57:58I remember President Trump telling
58:00me that if he did a hundred trade
58:02deals with China, it still wouldn't
58:05make up for the losses that
58:08COVID had inflicted on the United
58:09States.
58:10In the next episode, as a global
58:14pandemic rocks the U.S.-China
58:16relationship, the race for
58:18technological supremacy ramps up.
58:22And the stakes are raised as one of
58:24America's leading figures crosses a
58:27Chinese red line.
58:29You have to understand whether it's
58:30going to Tiananmen Square.
58:32or going to Taiwan.
58:33You cannot let somebody else decide
58:37where you're going.
58:39This is the closest moment of a
58:42military encounter.
58:45My understanding is that 20% of the
58:47Chinese did not sleep at that night.
58:50She's going to tell us where we can go?
58:51I don't think so.
58:57And you can watch the next episode right
59:00now on BBC iPlayer.
59:02Also there, AI Confidential with Hannah
59:05Fry.
59:05Extraordinary human stories from the
59:08high-tech frontier.
59:09Watch now.
59:10Inside a publishing scandal with a new
59:13podcast on sounds, Secrets of the Salt
59:16Path.
59:16Listen now.
59:18Listen now.
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