00:01There were some pretty dire predictions at the beginning of this crisis about the impact
00:06on the Pacific.
00:07For the moment though, supply chains are holding up and tankers, which are carrying diesel,
00:13which is so indispensable for Pacific nations, are still arriving, at least for now.
00:18Beyond around June, July, it does look more uncertain.
00:22But beyond that, or on top of that, you've also got the impact of cost.
00:26Now, what we are seeing are substantially higher oil prices, and unsurprisingly, that
00:31is flowing through to Pacific households, Pacific budgets, and to Pacific governments, as they
00:37try and grapple with the financial implications of this crisis.
00:41Now, the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, she's in Fiji at the moment, she's visiting with
00:45Pat Conroy on a visit, and she's taken the opportunity, while she's there, to make perhaps
00:50the first announcement, I believe, that Australia's made of direct support to a Pacific nation
00:54to help them deal with the supply shocks caused by the crisis in the Middle East, saying that
00:59she'll provide, or that Australia will provide, around $30 million in budget support to help
01:04cushion its economy from this crisis.
01:07Let's take a listen to what the Foreign Minister had to say, speaking not long ago in Suva.
01:13We have sought to use our engagements to elevate the needs of the Pacific and to advocate for
01:23them, for you, for Pacific Island nations not to be forgotten by the large economies, and
01:30to remind them of the vulnerability of Pacific nations in the fuel supply chain.
01:35I think the feedback we have had from Fiji and from the region is that, at the moment, the
01:44supply shock is not as present, not as near-term as the price shock.
01:53Meanwhile, Stephen, it sounds like the two countries are in the final stages of a new strategic pact.
01:58Do we have many details on this?
02:00Yeah, we do now, Ros, or at least a few of them.
02:03This was first flagged last year by Sidveni Rambuka, Fiji's Prime Minister, who came to
02:07the press club and said he wanted to strike a security treaty with Australia.
02:11Now, officials have spent the last year or so negotiating on that, and we're now coming
02:17to what Sidveni Rambuka calls the final stages of those negotiations.
02:21So all the indications are that this could well be signed in the coming months.
02:25It's going to be a little bit broader than security, according to the Prime Minister
02:29and to the Foreign Minister.
02:31There are going to be three pillars to it.
02:33One of those is going to be security, and that will probably see Australia help Fiji with
02:39things like fighting the drug smuggling epidemic that they're facing at the moment, as well
02:43as assistance for policing and dealing with transnational crime more broadly.
02:49Interestingly, it sounds like Australia might also make some concessions, according to Penny
02:53Wong, on visa-free travel, or at the very least easing up some of the restrictions that
02:58Fijians currently have to deal with if they want to come to Australia for work, study or
03:03play.
03:04So it looks like it'll be a pretty comprehensive agreement, but one that is struck at a higher
03:08level and one that will really bear down that relationship.
03:12There is another story, though, that's also kicking around, Ros, which is less happy for
03:16Australia, and that's the Nakamal Agreement, which viewers might remember was initialed with
03:21great ceremony on top of a volcano last year in Vanuatu.
03:25That agreement seems to have become quite bogged down.
03:29China, which is a major presence in Vanuatu, is also pushing ahead with its own agreement
03:34with Vanuatu, the Nemele Agreement, which has complicated things further.
03:38We're not sure exactly where it's going to land, but it does seem increasingly unlikely
03:42that the Nakamal Agreement will go through in the form that it was originally signed off
03:49on.
03:49Just another reminder of the so-called permanent contest, which continues to be fought pretty
03:54relentlessly in the Pacific between Canberra and Beijing.
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