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Tarik Skubal's Elbow Injury sparks a major conversation regarding pitcher injuries in the bigs.
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00:00So is Tarek Skubal, the ace pitcher of the Detroit Tigers?
00:03Here's a total bummer.
00:05Tarek Skubal, who outside of Paul Skeens is maybe the best arm in Major League Baseball,
00:10the Cy Young Award winner perennially at this point as a lead candidate in the AL,
00:15he is being shut down with bone spurs and is going to miss months for a Tigers team
00:20that is off to a rough start right around .500.
00:23But this is the equivalent, if you're not a national baseball fan,
00:26to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL being shut down
00:30and going to miss months of an NFL season
00:32or one of the 10 to 12 superstars in the NBA being out.
00:36And what's happening now is you've seen a couple of the pitchers
00:40that took part in the World Baseball Classic have issues
00:42where they've had to get some issue with their elbow cleaned up
00:48or they've got some floating particles or spurs, whatever they're going to call it.
00:52And Skubal's the latest of these guys now
00:55who was ramped up for the WBC a little earlier than normal.
00:59I always say that trying to suggest that if he didn't pitch in the WBC,
01:05he'd be fine or that this is based on the World Baseball Classic.
01:09I think that's crazy.
01:10Unless you're looking at the images from right before
01:13and they're perfectly clean and then right after
01:16and now all of a sudden they're not.
01:18But you can't tell me that pitching when he did to the extent that he did also.
01:23Remember, he pitched one outing for a few innings.
01:25It wasn't like they were abusing his arm
01:27and he went seven innings three times in February and March.
01:31Yeah, they didn't do like championship series,
01:32win or go home type stuff with him, you know?
01:34And strategically, by the way,
01:37even though Team USA was trying to win a championship,
01:39he knew because he's a pending free agent.
01:41And this is why this is such a total setback and bummer for him is
01:45he went to arbitration with the Tigers
01:47where they wanted to pay him somewhere around like $19 million, I think it was.
01:51He wanted $32 million.
01:53Typically what happens is a team suggests an amount,
01:56a player suggests an amount,
01:57and then they meet in the middle where neither would budge.
02:00So when you can't find an agreement,
02:03in the middle of the two, you go to arbitration.
02:06And a third part, an arbiter,
02:08basically a judge hears the team's case as to why you're only worth
02:11what they want to pay you.
02:12Then the player's agent makes the case of why the player's worth
02:16what the player wants.
02:17And they don't decide on a number between the two.
02:19They don't do the average, they do one or the other.
02:20One or the other.
02:21Either you only make the $19 million the team thinks is fair
02:24or you get all the way up to the $32 million that he thought was fair.
02:26And he won because he is the back-to-back AL Cy Young award-winning pitcher
02:31and arguably, as I said, the number one pitcher in all of baseball.
02:34So he's making $32 million this year,
02:37which will get his career earnings up to $48 million.
02:39He's barely made money in the past because he's on his rookie contract.
02:42But now, Danny, this guy who's probably the best arm in the sport,
02:45certainly the best from the left side,
02:47going into free agency,
02:49best case scenario,
02:51he's going to come back and pitch six to eight weeks
02:54at the end of the season
02:55and then go into free agency.
02:57If everything goes great,
02:59still with some questions about his arm,
03:00I wonder how much money he's been costed with this news today.
03:04Yeah, there's a number of considerations.
03:06First, the easiest thing to do is go,
03:08he pitched the WBC.
03:10That's what happened.
03:11As you said, nobody knows.
03:13Unless you're doing an examination,
03:14an MRI and sort of a thorough exploratory procedure
03:19to figure out exactly what's going on in his elbow,
03:21each and every day,
03:23there's a correlation.
03:24That's all we have at this point.
03:25The second thing is,
03:26the way I view it,
03:27especially now,
03:29with how far these pitchers have come
03:32in terms of maximizing what their bodies can do,
03:35you used to have to stay within yourself.
03:37And if you didn't throw 95,
03:37you had to figure out another way to get outs, right?
03:39You could throw 88 and have a slider
03:41and a two-seamer and pitch mix
03:43and all those other kind of stuff.
03:44There's no room for that anymore.
03:45You light up the radar gun
03:46or you don't get to play.
03:47Period. End of story.
03:48Well, it starts so early.
03:49I don't know if you've read The Arm,
03:51The Passing Book.
03:52Uh-huh.
03:52But basically,
03:53from when kids now are a little older
03:56than your sons, honestly,
03:57they are hunting velocity.
03:59Yep.
03:59And you will see this in all the videos
04:02that go around from any of these pitching labs.
04:04I've never understood this,
04:05where kids are, like, getting crow-hopping into,
04:08like, trying to max out throwing.
04:10Because all you want to do is be able to say
04:12at some age that you threw 60
04:14and then 80 and then 90
04:15and you're trying to see triple digits.
04:17But you can't get the scholarship anymore
04:19out of high school
04:20if you're not throwing hard enough.
04:23And, by the way,
04:24you might not make varsity initially
04:26as a freshman or whatever
04:27if you're not throwing hard enough.
04:28And maybe you don't crack the rotation.
04:30So it starts super young.
04:33And because everyone's chasing velocity,
04:36the idea has been,
04:37well, we throw too hard.
04:38This isn't what human beings and arms
04:40were meant to have to do.
04:42But the issue I have with that logic is
04:44we hear the same thing the other way.
04:47So, like, the Nationals right now
04:48are top five in baseball
04:49and breaking ball percentage thrown.
04:51Last year, the Red Sox,
04:53and with their new analytically-led front office,
04:56they have been very, very big
04:57on this analytics philosophy of,
05:00if your fastball's not your best pitch,
05:02don't throw your fastball.
05:03So Rich Hill started this, I think,
05:05more than anybody else.
05:06But he had this great curveball.
05:08He was a lefty who threw, you know,
05:0989 to 91.
05:10And he's like,
05:11I'm only going to throw curveballs.
05:12If you've got a wipeout,
05:13unbelievable slider,
05:14and you only throw 90 miles an hour,
05:16just throw all sliders.
05:17But what you hear people say
05:19to Craig Breslow in Boston
05:20and some of these other people
05:22who believe this is,
05:23well, you can't throw that many
05:24breaking balls
05:24because throwing the breaking balls
05:26is what blows your arm out.
05:27Well, how can both be true?
05:28Is it velocity?
05:29Or is it breaking balls?
05:31Or maybe it's just bound to happen.
05:32By the way, my answer is yes.
05:33So each thing puts a strain
05:35on a different thing.
05:36Everybody's got all the muscles
05:37you can develop.
05:38It still comes down
05:38to a couple different little tendons
05:40and a couple different ligaments
05:41where it's not load-bearing
05:43in the same way
05:44that the rest of your body is.
05:45And it's always going to come down to that.
05:46Some guys are everyday Eddie's.
05:47Some guys are Nolan Ryan
05:48pitching into their 50s
05:49if they felt like it,
05:50or Satchel Paige
05:51or some of the great legends.
05:52Other dudes are porcelain
05:53and you don't know
05:54until you kind of get out there.
05:55But my view on this,
05:57and we've kind of stumbled
05:57into this discussion,
05:59everybody kind of goes,
05:59well, pitching injuries
06:00are pretty much a constant over time.
06:03So they kind of throw their hands up
06:04and they go,
06:04if it happens, it happens.
06:06I look at it the exact opposite way.
06:08Now there's more care
06:09than there ever was before
06:11about limiting innings,
06:13limiting stressful innings,
06:15number of pitches,
06:15pitch counts, and the like.
06:16And you still have the same injury rate
06:18as when guys are throwing
06:19both ends of a doubleheader?
06:21You've got a higher injury rate
06:22right now than you did then.
06:23And I've talked to a lot of guys about this,
06:25but remember years ago
06:26we talked to Max Scherzer about this.
06:28But I think it is a problem,
06:30not a feature,
06:32but probably a bug,
06:33that after the draft,
06:35initially if you want to shut a guy down
06:36from the SEC like Kate Anderson
06:38who the Mariners just drafted,
06:39number two overall,
06:40who's awesome
06:41and already looks like
06:42he's big league ready.
06:43If you don't want him to pitch
06:44after you draft him
06:45because he piled up the frames at LSU
06:46through the College World Series,
06:48no problem, don't.
06:49But when you're babying these guys
06:52so that they throw 30 pitches,
06:55then 40 pitches,
06:56then 50 pitches,
06:57and you're three months into the season
06:58and someone has maxed out
07:00at 60 pitches or five innings,
07:03to me you're just training the arm
07:05to run a mile at a time
07:07when eventually they're trying
07:10to run a marathon.
07:11I hate the way we treat young arms
07:13in general,
07:14but to your point,
07:15you can't really be more careful
07:17with these highly invested in arms
07:19than we are now,
07:20and the results are not changing.
07:22The injuries are only getting worse,
07:23so something's not working.
07:24Yeah, and so the thing
07:26that's not working is,
07:27as you said,
07:28it's the addiction.
07:29Greg Maddux could not make
07:30the major leagues right now.
07:31Neither could Tom Glav,
07:32neither could Dennis Martinez,
07:33neither could John Burkett,
07:34neither could any of these,
07:35you know,
07:37baseball scuffing,
07:38you know,
07:38the Vaseline balls
07:40that guys made careers on.
07:42Foster Griffin,
07:43who's top 10 in the league
07:44in ERA right now,
07:46is averaging 91 with his fastball.
07:47He was just pitching
07:48for three years in Japan
07:49before someone said,
07:51he's had a lot of success
07:52against some guys
07:52that come over here
07:53and hit pretty good.
07:54Why don't we give him a shot?
07:55Yeah, one team was like,
07:56we got space.
07:57We don't want to spend much money.
07:58If I was to go watch
07:59a bullpen session
08:00of Cade Cavalli
08:01and then Foster Griffin
08:02and Zach Littell
08:03and whatever else,
08:04like, I'm not giving
08:06Foster Griffin a contract.
08:07He's throwing seven pitches
08:08and mixing and matching.
08:10Like, nobody wants,
08:10he wouldn't get drafted today.
08:12Exactly right.
08:12No chance.
08:13And so,
08:13the thing that I don't know
08:15how to fix
08:16because you need it,
08:17you need the velocity,
08:18that's what's breaking everything,
08:20is the amount of stress
08:21and strength,
08:22whether it's velocity,
08:23whether it's the spin
08:23you're creating
08:24on your breaking ball
08:24that stresses
08:25the slightly different part
08:26of your arm as you throw,
08:28everything is hard.
08:29Everything is as max effort
08:31as you possibly can.
08:32The new philosophy,
08:33even the Nats are doing it.
08:34There's no pacing yourself.
08:35If you go five in a dive,
08:37that's,
08:37you're better suited
08:38than trying to stretch,
08:39you know,
08:39stretch your side
08:39over six or seven innings.
08:41So here's the example
08:41is Jake Irvin.
08:42Jake Irvin's the example.
08:43The last couple of years,
08:46the goal for Jake Irvin
08:47or his role was,
08:49go out there
08:50and be our horse.
08:52You're big,
08:53you're built,
08:53you've got tree trunks
08:54for legs,
08:55you've got an easy delivery,
08:55get us through seven.
08:57Get me 18 outs
08:58on a minimum
08:59and if you can get us
09:00through 21,
09:01do that.
09:02And because of
09:03that length
09:05that was needed,
09:06Jake Irvin,
09:07whether they told him
09:08to do this
09:08or just internally
09:09he decided this,
09:11I will not redline it
09:12as I call it,
09:13which is like
09:13go max effort,
09:14think about the,
09:15you know,
09:16the car in front of you
09:18showing you
09:18that your RPMs
09:19are too high.
09:20He's going to take
09:21a little bit off
09:22because I got to go
09:23deeper into the start.
09:24But he doesn't have
09:24the stuff to do that.
09:25So instead of sitting
09:2794,
09:2795 where he was
09:28a few years ago,
09:29he was down last year
09:30to 91,
09:3192.
09:32And the breaking ball
09:33velocities are down.
09:34You know,
09:35they're not as sharp
09:35and the RPMs
09:36on the spin rates
09:37are down.
09:37And guess what?
09:38Jake Irvin's getting
09:39his teeth kicked in.
09:40And so this staff
09:41comes in
09:42and they're correct
09:42by the way
09:43if the goal is
09:43to have the most
09:44effective version
09:45of Jake Irvin possible.
09:46Yep.
09:46Hey man,
09:47don't worry about
09:48six or seven innings.
09:50That's for the birds.
09:51We need you to go
09:53five innings
09:54and if you can only
09:55give us four
09:55subnights,
09:56that's fine too.
09:57Hang four zeros
09:58or five zeros.
09:59Go out there
09:59and strike out
10:00ten per nine
10:00if you can.
10:01We need the best
10:02stuff possible.
10:03Let's find your
10:03velocity again.
10:04Let's find your RPMs
10:05on your braking ball
10:06again.
10:06So you just think
10:07about it,
10:08the equivalent,
10:08Danny,
10:08of like using
10:09a tank of gas.
10:10Like you can go
10:11100 miles an hour
10:12and slam the brakes
10:14and in and out
10:14of traffic
10:15and you're cutting
10:15people off
10:16and you're starting
10:17and stopping
10:17and you're going
10:18to run through
10:18your gas
10:19or you can just
10:19kind of set
10:19your speedometer
10:20at 50 miles an hour
10:21and you'll have
10:21more of it.
10:22And they basically
10:23want Jake Irvin
10:23to get there faster.
10:24You got to empty it.
10:25We need you to get
10:26through those outs.
10:27And that's,
10:28I don't blame this staff
10:29for getting the most
10:30out of the player
10:30but that's the epidemic.
10:32So back to Scoble
10:33more specifically
10:34which kind of entered us
10:35into that conversation.
10:36Yeah, if you're just
10:36joining us and you're
10:37wondering why we're
10:37talking about arms
10:38breaking,
10:39Tarek Scoble
10:40who I think is the
10:40best pitcher in baseball
10:41and certainly from
10:42the left side
10:43has that distinction
10:44as having won
10:45the Cy Young Award
10:45the last two years
10:46has these floating
10:47bodies in his elbow
10:48pitched in the WBC
10:50which is now getting
10:51blamed for this
10:51but God knows
10:52if that has anything
10:53to do with it.
10:53But he'll be out
10:54for a few months.
10:55He's making 32 million
10:56this year.
10:56He was set to make
10:57300 million in free agency
10:58this offseason
10:59and now everything's
11:00kind of up in the air
11:01for him.
11:01Yeah, it is.
11:02And again, it sucks.
11:03It's unfortunate
11:03especially because he
11:04wanted to do
11:04something really cool
11:05for Team USA
11:06which I'm usually
11:06in favor of
11:07or always in favor
11:07of pretty much.
11:08The part that
11:10or the way that I
11:11view this is
11:12there are going to
11:13be some exceptions.
11:14They're going to
11:14be the everyday
11:15addies that never
11:15break down
11:16and it's incredible
11:17but for the most
11:18part it's a ticking
11:18time bomb.
11:19You just have no
11:19idea.
11:20That's what it is
11:21with now maybe
11:23somebody like a
11:23Skeens who's
11:25such a big monster
11:26now again he's still
11:27putting a ton of
11:28strain so I would
11:29you know I hate to
11:30put this on him
11:31because I have no
11:31idea but guy
11:32the what
11:34happened to Mark
11:34Pryor so many
11:35years ago flip my
11:37belief on this
11:37because a guy with
11:39the most effortless
11:40easy perfect seamless
11:42mechanics had nothing
11:44but arm trouble his
11:45entire time getting
11:46to the show and
11:47I go if if he's
11:48going to break
11:48down nobody's immune
11:50from this and it's
11:51only the velocity
11:52has only gone up
11:52since then this was
11:53you know kind of
11:54the early 2000s he
11:55was a collegiate
11:56peer of mine I
11:56think right around
11:56the same time as
11:58soon as I saw
11:58that I said that
11:59that changed it it's
12:00inevitable for all
12:01these guys so
12:02people who are
12:02blaming the WBC I
12:03think I think that's
12:04irresponsible if being
12:06slightly more ramped
12:07up three weeks
12:09earlier is going to
12:10be catastrophic we
12:12got to drop the whole
12:13sport well there's
12:13also you know not
12:14enough to me data
12:17that suggests that
12:17like people will
12:19point to Edwin Diaz
12:20who actually got hurt
12:21in the WBC a few
12:23years ago actually
12:24tore something that
12:25that's a direct
12:25injury yeah from
12:26participating that bad
12:27luck and freak but in
12:29his case this time
12:29around like he has
12:30these bodies and he's
12:31getting a cleanup
12:32procedure and he's
12:32going to be out a
12:33couple months as
12:34well and so you
12:35know the idea is
12:36like well that was a
12:37WBC pitcher and so
12:38is Derek Scoble okay
12:41but there are a lot of
12:42guys that pitched in
12:43the WBC some of them
12:44right now are saying
12:45that they're off to
12:46much faster starts
12:46because they ramped up
12:48faster or contribute
12:50attribute some of
12:51their successes to
12:51being in the WBC I
12:53just think there is no
12:55good way to answer why
12:58this is happening
12:58because it's it's not
13:00provable there's no way
13:03to actually know why
13:05this is happening and
13:06you definitely can't
13:07prove to me that if
13:08Scoble hadn't been in
13:09the WBC he'd be
13:09perfectly fine so those
13:11five innings essentially
13:13or that ramping up
13:14period that was a little
13:16earlier than normal is
13:17the reason but the
13:19other 810 innings of
13:22his career with the
13:23Tigers to this point
13:24and when he's gone
13:24eight nine innings at a
13:25time in games and
13:26thrown 115 pitches to
13:28close complete games
13:29out none of those were
13:30the issue like I have a
13:31hard time with that
13:32well it's also but this
13:33I saw one of the
13:34headlines I can't
13:35remember who wrote it
13:35so but it's either
13:37there it's second WC
13:39WBC pitcher goes down
13:40with injury and I'm
13:42going you didn't say
13:43that about Joe and
13:44Duran you didn't say
13:45about Trevor Rogers
13:45Sonny Gray Nick
13:46Lodolo Rizal
13:47Iglesias Blake Snell or
13:49a million other guys
13:51that may or may not
13:51have pitched the WBC
13:52we're out Garrett
13:53Crochet is out that
13:54why is that what's
13:56the correlation there
13:56did he play long
13:57toss in February
13:58against your wishes
13:59people need to treat
14:00it as unfortunately a
14:03corollary this is an
14:04inevitable thing for
14:05for 90 plus percent of
14:06these guys that are
14:07throwing harder than
14:09anybody ever has
14:10before I think that
14:11the key reasons for
14:12the epidemic of
14:14these arm injuries so
14:15I think max effort
14:16intensity yep and just
14:18redlining it is a
14:19factor right I think
14:21stuff just the fact
14:23that you're throwing
14:23harder and the
14:25stuff is nastier like
14:27there was a time when
14:29dudes went out there
14:30you weren't going
14:31underhand scuffy
14:32McGee but you might
14:32as well have been
14:33you're just kind of
14:34throwing the ball at
14:3481 miles an hour
14:3559 miles an hour long
14:36enough ago long day at
14:38the factory so you
14:38know you got to pitch
14:39tonight fastball
14:39velocity breaking
14:40balls being better I
14:41think that's a big
14:41part of it fair
14:42hundred percent all
14:43right I'm gonna go
14:44reduced workloads and
14:46recovery so this would
14:48be like the
14:49modernization as you
14:50said of you're not
14:52trained to do
14:53oftentimes what
14:54you're doing in the
14:55big leagues and or
14:55just generally like
14:57when you do push it
14:58you're not used to
14:59that because we
15:00start we baby you
15:01every step of the way
15:02where guys like
15:02Scherzer I don't know
15:03if this is still his
15:04take but it was when
15:05we talked to him about
15:05this on air he feels
15:06like if you just if we
15:08acted like it was
15:091985 again with the
15:10workload he thinks we'd
15:11be in a better spot I
15:12don't know if that's
15:12true or not but that
15:14could certainly be a
15:15thing that you're not
15:15training for the
15:16marathon anymore and
15:17you still sometimes run
15:18marathons that one's
15:19much harder for me
15:19because again point
15:22one and then I guess
15:23that's it was that
15:24your third point point
15:24three they're
15:25intertwined for me in
15:27other words if this
15:28was 1985 then you're
15:30not redlining in the
15:31first inning you're not
15:32redlining the first
15:32time through the order
15:33you're not redlining
15:33maybe except you know
15:35bottom of the sixth
15:36bases loaded three two
15:37count best hitter to
15:38plate now all max
15:40effort right it's a it's
15:41a it's a give and a
15:42take there now this was
15:43one of the ones that's
15:43not provable at all
15:44there's not enough data
15:45yet and we had so many
15:46injuries before this it
15:47certainly would not be
15:48one of the key reasons
15:50but I wonder if it is
15:51exacerbated anything the
15:53pitch clock the lack of
15:55downtime between pitches
15:56there are pictures that
15:57will say that having more
15:59downtime between the
16:00pitches is just better for
16:01the arm I think that's
16:02interesting the other thing
16:04you hear people talk about
16:05is not using something
16:07sticky on the baseball
16:08anymore that they get
16:09their hands checked every
16:10time they come off used to
16:11be spider tack or
16:12something else and you
16:13actually have to grip the
16:14ball harder so if you've
16:16always more strain you
16:17like 15 years grip the
16:18ball a little less you
16:19know more loosely in your
16:20hand free and easy but
16:22it's stuck to your fingers
16:23because you had something
16:23sticky now you can't you
16:25actually just imagine like
16:26put something in your hand
16:27and push down a little your
16:28whole wrist feels that you
16:29know all the way down to
16:30the elbow so that's one of
16:32the considerations that
16:33people are looking at I
16:35think one of the big
16:36things we've gotten into is
16:37year-round baseball where
16:40there was a time where the
16:41normal way of going about
16:43playing baseball was in that
16:45season when you weren't
16:46playing basketball football
16:47soccer or whatever now
16:49kids are playing travel
16:50baseball all year long
16:51especially pitchers oh yeah
16:52you know they're just like
16:53and every week it's a
16:54tournament and everybody's
16:54behind there with the fleet
16:55of radar guns to you know
16:57did he did the 12 year old
16:58top 70 today that's the
16:59world it's got to be a part
17:01of it yep just has to be
17:02mm-hmm nobody's got an
17:03answer but I think
17:05everyone's intrigued by it
17:06yeah like it's one of those
17:07where to me I know what's
17:09causing the fire it's the
17:10relentless pursuit of
17:11velocity how are you going to
17:12tell a kid don't throw
17:13hard who has any kind of
17:15aspirations to go to the
17:16next level beyond where
17:17they are hey man take a
17:18couple miles per hour off
17:19save your arm how do you do
17:20that I don't think you do
17:22but but if you take away
17:23the relentless pursuit of
17:24velocity and you still play
17:26baseball year-round and all
17:29the other things we're
17:30talking about are still
17:31factors I still think it's
17:32worse than the past 100%
17:33of course it is yeah I
17:34didn't mean to apply that
17:34but it's the to me the
17:36number one culprit a
17:38thousand feet then we get
17:39to the second thing is
17:40these human bodies weren't
17:42meant to do this once a
17:43generation there's a freak
17:44yeah there's a guy that
17:45could throw 96 who just
17:46was a big orc with a
17:47looks like he's throwing
17:48a pie but he whips it in
17:49there at 96 now everybody
17:52does even bodies that aren't
17:53supposed to be able to do
17:54that just look at the
17:54fastball velocity on
17:55average in the sport over a
17:57graph it's just climbing
17:59like an escalator they're
18:00scientifically manipulating
18:01and sort of like coming up
18:03with little tricks to get
18:04you beyond your capacity
18:05what you're supposed to be
18:06able to handle load
18:07bearing wise I mean think
18:08of a think of a think of a
18:09wall you can handle a
18:11thousand pounds what if we
18:12put five thousand pounds on
18:13it it's going to break and
18:14that's what's happening
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