00:014 May 2026, Vodafone is one of the first time in Vodafone.
00:05Stock in the stock is 6% upside.
00:0910-Rupae share price is on the top of the trading.
00:11And in the mind, the question is,
00:14is the time to buy or the profit to book?
00:18Let's look at the question,
00:20with the technical and fundamentals.
00:22Hello and welcome.
00:23I am watching Good Returns.
00:25I am with you.
00:25Okay, the 6% upside we have told you,
00:30was the last time in the beginning of Vodafone Idea.
00:33The Bazaar closed,
00:35the Vodafone Idea, which was fast,
00:37was a little lower.
00:39But in positive mode,
00:41the VIA closed for 4 May.
00:44And after the report,
00:46the current is also very fast.
00:49And after that,
00:51the Vodafone Idea stock came down,
00:53and the Vitaar list has reduced this Vitae.
00:55And this always comes with VIA.
00:57So, first of all,
00:58the Vodafone Idea,
00:59what you do every time and what they do,
01:00is that the current situation and.
01:02What you do every time.
01:02a radio company,
01:03is around 87,695 crores.
01:08AGRDU.
01:10which has been done with VIA.
01:23AGI due revised and Vodafone Idea will be 23,649 crore rupiah.
01:28Not just the amount, the payment structure is also soft.
01:32For 4 years, it will only be 100 crore per year.
01:36Every year, 100 crore rupiah.
01:38Now, you will say that the game change has gone.
01:41Exactly, this is the Vodafone Idea.
01:44VI's final AGI dues are now 64,046 crore rupiah.
01:49This figure is 31 December 2025.
01:52The first estimate was 87,695 crore rupiah.
01:57This means, it was 23,649 crore rupiah direct reduction.
02:0227,000 crore rupiah cut.
02:05Now, it feels like that yes, it has come.
02:08But it is not in the structure of master stroke.
02:12Now, let us know in detail.
02:14The payment schedule is divided into two parts.
02:16The first phase is from 2032 to 2035.
02:20This is 4 years.
02:22The company has only 100 crore rupiah.
02:25That means, total will be 400 crore rupiah.
02:28Now, the company's total debt is 2,010,000 crore rupiah.
02:34And the spectrum dues is 1,025,000 crore rupiah.
02:38The company's near-term burden is practically negligible.
02:43That means, we have no burden.
02:45Now, we have to go to the second phase.
02:47With voice 2036 to with voice 2041.
02:516 years, equal installments.
02:54Every year, it will be 10,608 crore rupiah payment.
02:58Yes, the pressure will be.
02:59But until the company will have 10 years runaway.
03:03Turn around.
03:05And a critical metric.
03:07Net present value.
03:09On your screen, we have seen the data.
03:11NPV.
03:12Before, AGR burden of NPV was 35,000 crore rupiah.
03:16Now, revise is 26,000 crore rupiah.
03:18This means, today's value is 9,000 crore rupiah.
03:22This is the point that many people ignore.
03:25Now, the market's sentiment shift.
03:29And here, entry is a very big report.
03:32This is the city group report.
03:354 May 2016, the city has seen Vodafone idea.
03:39Rating is buy, but with high risk.
03:42It is clear.
03:43Opportunity is, but risk is also greater.
03:45The target price is 14,000 crore rupiah.
03:47The current price is given.
03:49If you look at the price,
03:49the price is 10,000 crore rupiah 20,000 crore rupiah.
03:50The price is 10,000 crore rupiah 20,000 crore rupiah.
03:53This means, roughly, the city report is giving 37,000 crore rupiah.
04:00Now, the question is, why is the city bullish?
04:02Why is this stock so bullish?
04:04See the valuation model.
04:06They have 12 points of APTA applied to the expected APTA.
04:12But they have not compared directly.
04:14The city has discounted to the market in the comparison of the Vodafone idea.
04:18Because Airtel is a strong, profitable market leader company.
04:22But Vodafone idea is also in turnaround phase.
04:25Interesting thing is,
04:26the city has even cut its APTA estimates to its APTA estimates.
04:31But the target price has not changed.
04:34Because Airtel is a positive impact,
04:37the Airtel is a strong impact.
04:40Now, the most bold claim on the city.
04:42The city of Vodafone idea,
04:4425,000 crore rupiah to the debt raise.
04:48And this fund will be used for 45,000 crore rupiah for 3 years.
04:53This fund will be used for 3 years.
04:54Network expansion, 5G rollout, infrastructure improvement.
04:57These 3 things will be used for the price.
05:01But this is the story of the market.
05:03The market is not very optimistic.
05:07The other brokerages view.
05:09The market is not very optimistic.
05:11The target is 10-11 rupiah.
05:14The ICICI security is holding.
05:16The target is 10 rupiah.
05:18The GM financial is positive stance.
05:21The target is 10-11 rupiah to the price.
05:22But now only no target is reached.
05:24The M&K says that sell it.
05:27The target is 6 rupiah.
05:28The average conscience is 10 rupiah.
05:31The target is 9 rupiah, 50-10 rupiah below.
05:35The clear message is a relief.
05:37The risk is high.
05:38And the ground reality is,
05:41If you are checking this stock on the radar,
05:45you will be able to compare the air tail with the pair comparison.
05:49The market gap.
05:50airtill is $11,49,000,000,000 and on the V.I.A.
05:55Vodafone Idea is only $1,10,000-$1,15,000,000.
06:01Understand the difference of this, that's right.
06:06Subscribers here, Airtile is $473 so $478 million Vodafone Idea そ $198-$200 million total
06:16When we come to the market share, Airtel has a 37.6% market share in this time and Vodafone
06:23Idea has a 15% market share in this time.
06:27Airtel is the average revenue per user. Airtel is the average revenue per user.
06:34Vodafone's Airtel is the average revenue per user is the average revenue per user.
06:39Quarter 4 results are not coming to Vodafone Idea, so we will compare to Quarter 3 results with 2016.
06:48If you see the revenue Airtel generated by Airtel was more than 54,800 crore and Vodafone Idea was 11
06:56,330 crore.
06:59Profitability Airtel was strong, but Vodafone Idea was net loss of 5,286 crore.
07:06And the most heavy point was total debt.
07:09Vodafone Idea has more than 2,10,000 crore.
07:14But it has no debt.
07:17Why do you understand this stock in risk category?
07:20But look, a positive trend is developed.
07:23With worse, 2026 quarter 4 results, the expectations of Vodafone Idea has a positive trend.
07:32In January to March 2026 results are not announced.
07:36But what are the expectations of brokerage expectations?
07:37What are the expectations of the quarter 3?
07:38Listen to the revenue.
07:39Revenue can be 10,800 crore, to 11,300 crore.
07:42And the average revenue can be 10,800 crore, to 11,300 crore.
07:44And the average revenue can be 4,700 crore, to 4,900 crore.
07:49And the average revenue can be 27,29 crore.
07:53And the biggest improvement is the net loss.
07:56This is the loss of 200 crore to 500 crore.
08:00Now compare that quarter 3 was 5,286 crore.
08:05But if you look at the expectations,
08:08it means that losses are sharply lower.
08:13And one more signal.
08:14In February and March, subscriber net additions start.
08:18If the trend is sustained,
08:19the right are getting better.
08:20So, after the trend is released,
08:22the turnaround story is more than clear.
08:25Now, if you are looking at this stock behavior,
08:28because many people are asking,
08:29the stock is why the highest fares over,
08:31and it makes ways to move on.
08:32After every time,
08:33the impact shows are very positive.
08:35The AGR need to be to be proof on the four numbers.
08:38Why is the result of stock in the thope Uma14?
08:42This $12,90.
08:44The lithium-up is also $12 on median.
08:45was 21 in December 2026.
08:47The current price is 10.20-10.30-10.30. If you look at the resistance level is 10.35
08:56-10.35-10.35.
08:58Every time this zone is selling. Retail investors profit book, heavy debt overhangs, 1,25,000 crore spectrum dues are
09:10now in company.
09:11This is why subscriber churn risk. Subscribers generally don't stop, they don't go back. Execution uncertainty.
09:21Brokerages are cautious stance. Brokerages don't come back when it comes to positive side rating.
09:28Derivative market is heavy call rating.
09:32Clear breakout when the stock will sustain the price of 11.50-11.
09:37The next rally will be the real trigger.
09:40The next rally will be the real trigger.
09:41What a phone idea is a company that was first of the survival age.
09:45Now it's a second chance.
09:47AGR Relief has the immediate risk of bankruptcy.
09:50But the challenges are not happening.
09:522,10,000 crore debt.
09:551,25,000 crore spectrum dues.
09:58Low output. Market share loss. Execution dependency.
10:01Everything is now available.
10:03This is why this stock is not a normal investment.
10:06This is a high risk turnaround bid.
10:09And in short term, news driven moves you will get.
10:13Positively and negatively.
10:14Medium term, funding and execution will decide what the stock is.
10:19And long term, this stock will survive only when business fundamentals improve.
10:25So if you are conservative investors, this stock will not be for you.
10:30If you are aggressive, risk and volatility can handle the risk,
10:34then this high risk and high reward opportunity will be possible.
10:38But blindly entry will be the biggest risk.
10:40The numbers will understand.
10:42Levels will see.
10:43Patients will see.
10:43The stock stock will do.
10:46Stop buying stocks and stocks that are BEEN in the stock Lair.
10:50If you consider your stock-s Sergei,
10:53Livesties &
Comments