00:00Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are getting back on a plane, it appears, making their way back to Islamabad for
00:06another round of talks with Iran.
00:09And, Kayleigh, this comes after news yesterday when Israel and Lebanon announced a three-week extension.
00:14I guess the president, Trump, that is, announced it on their behalf, a three-week extension of their ceasefire.
00:19Yeah, that's right. And he said the leaders of both of those countries will be coming here in Washington in
00:24the coming weeks to talk about this.
00:26But clearly he is heralding that particular ceasefire as a victory.
00:29The question remains to what extent that is able to pave the way forward on any kind of long-term
00:32agreement between the U.S. and Iran
00:34and whether talks this weekend can really advance that, Jeff.
00:37That's right. We've got Michael Herzog, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, joining us shortly.
00:42We wanted to check in first with Dan Williams, Bloomberg News Jerusalem reporter.
00:47And, Dan, it's great to have you with us here.
00:49The headline that we're seeing and the reaction from Hezbollah to this three-week extension,
00:54they're calling the truce meaningless.
00:57How difficult will it be to maintain a ceasefire when Hezbollah is reacting in this way?
01:04When Hezbollah says a truce is meaningless, it's significant because Hezbollah can still fire rockets.
01:11It can still attack Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.
01:13It can still threaten Israeli communities in the north of the country.
01:17That is significant.
01:18So when we talk about the ceasefire in Lebanon, perhaps not quote marks,
01:23but it should be recalled that there is a fine print attached to it,
01:26specifically a fine print allowing the Israelis to take action against perceived Hezbollah threats.
01:31Hezbollah not actually being a party to that ceasefire agreement.
01:35It's an agreement between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, not Hezbollah itself.
01:39It means that, formally speaking, it's outside the ceasefire from the outset.
01:43The big question, what is the value of that announcement by President Trump,
01:47by the Vice President Vance, when those ambassadors met for a second time yesterday in Washington?
01:52What is the value of that announcement of the extension of three weeks?
01:55I think it's largely optical, but optics go a long way in the Middle East.
02:00Lebanese need a psychological boost, apparently, when it comes to potentially confronting Hezbollah internally,
02:06as they have committed to doing repeatedly in the past, but have yet to do,
02:09given the delicate power structure, the fact that Hezbollah remains armed and dangerous,
02:14potentially internally, as well as toward Israel.
02:17However, the fact is there are still laws of the books in Lebanon preventing Lebanese
02:21from engaging with Israelis, from talking about normalization with Israelis,
02:25and still envoys have been meeting openly with the Israelis,
02:28and apparently, as you noted, the Lebanese leader may even meet with the Israeli Prime Minister in Washington.
02:33The optics here are important in that they may give enough of a boost to the Lebanese eventually
02:38to find some sort of arrangement, perhaps with the help of the U.S. and Israel,
02:41to defang Hezbollah and pushing all sides toward a peaceable, perhaps even a peace treaty, in the near future.
02:51Well, it's certainly incredible to consider.
02:53When we think about whether or not a wider treaty between the U.S. and Iran can be reached in
02:57the near future,
02:58and whether negotiations, another round of them this weekend in Islamabad, can advance that,
03:02obviously, Israel does not have a seat at that particular negotiating table.
03:06It's not recognized by Pakistan, where these talks are happening, is one issue.
03:11Dan, do we have a sense as to what exactly Israel's objectives are,
03:15and the confidence that the Israeli government has in U.S. negotiators to defend their position
03:23and get the optimal outcome, not just for the United States, but for Israel, too?
03:27Well, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement just before the Jewish Sabbath a few
03:31hours ago, saying that Israel and the United States are fully coordinated on these matters.
03:36Israel is the junior partner in this war. It has been from the outset. It is not the superpower here.
03:42The United States is. So Trump, from the outset, has been calling the shots.
03:47And I think the Israelis have said so openly. Only a few weeks ago, the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said
03:52at a press conference that Trump is the, quote-unquote, leader of this operation against Iran,
03:57and Israel is the, quote-unquote, ally or the junior partner.
04:00So what the U.S. decides is what will happen.
04:03For now, formally, openly, the allies are pretty much on the same page in terms of core demands.
04:09A verifiable end to the Iranian nuclear program, which would entail also the removal
04:14of that highly enriched uranium, what remains in Iran, some 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.
04:22And basically, of course, an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a development
04:27not foreseen at the outset of this war, but certainly one that's sitting on international
04:32energy operators and on world powers.
04:34One development, one issue that has been apparently overlooked or has been pushed aside
04:39by the negotiators as a ballistic program of Iran that no longer appears to be on the table
04:44as a core immediate demand.
04:46I imagine, however, that were Iran to give up its nuclear program, were it to reopen Hormuz,
04:51it would effectively see what remains of its ballistic missiles as a regime protection weapon,
04:56not to be easily expended against enemies, certainly not initiated wars, especially as we're
05:02told that the damage inflicted on Iran has included severe damage to the production line
05:07for missiles in the future.
05:09So the ballistic missiles remaining in the Iranian arsenal presumably are the ones that remain
05:14and will simply not be supplemented because the Iranians may not have the ability in the
05:18foreseeable future to do so.
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