00:00It does look like, we're getting headlines, that the DOJ is going to back down, that Janine Pirro is going
00:07to drop her investigation into the Fed and Jerome Powell.
00:12And this has been a demand from Senator Tom Tillis in order to allow the vote to go forward on
00:18Powell's replacement, Kevin Warsh.
00:21So, Mike, what do we know here?
00:22Well, we know that Janine Pirro has been meeting with Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general.
00:26And we know this is a major problem for Donald Trump getting Kevin Warsh confirmed.
00:30We don't know for sure, but ABC is reporting that they may drop the criminal probe, that Pirro may let
00:38it drop.
00:38Powell has said it has to be dropped with prejudice, which means you can't refile the case later.
00:43But we're waiting for confirmation from the Justice Department that that is the case,
00:49because Jay Powell's not going to say he's leaving on the basis of something from just ABC.
00:56But that is what we're looking at right now.
00:59It could happen today.
01:01And I know when Kevin Warsh was giving his testimony, there was this question being asked of, like,
01:05can we even trade on this thing?
01:06Because we don't even know if he's going to get confirmed.
01:09Assuming they drop this, that means he can get confirmed because it opens the door for Tom Tillis.
01:12I'm looking at two-year yields dropping now.
01:14Now, three basis points, just given everything we know, OK, the probe ends.
01:19That means Kevin Warsh just kind of slides in.
01:21Is this a market, then, that will necessarily need to price in more cuts because of what we know from
01:26a presumptive Fed chair, Kevin Warsh?
01:28I think what you'll get is a knee-jerk reaction in that direction.
01:32But then people will go back to looking at what the inflation situation is and what the oil price situation
01:37is,
01:37what the war situation is.
01:39And probably we won't see much change in where we are right now because it's all going to be about
01:45inflation
01:45and, Kevin Warsh said the same at his confirmation hearing.
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