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Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk tells DW he's convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to occupy all of Ukraine and won't stop hostilities even if Ukraine hands over the Donbas.
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00:00This war is for the long haul.
00:02Russia is not interested in getting Donbas.
00:05It is a trap.
00:07The ultimate goal of Putin is to take over an entire Ukraine.
00:13It's a sham talks.
00:15It's a KGB special operation.
00:17Ukraine is back in the headlines here in Europe
00:20after weeks in which Iran was dominating all the attention.
00:23The Druzeba pipeline that takes Russian oil to the EU through Ukraine
00:26is back in action after weeks in which it was not functioning.
00:30We've just had news that that €90 billion loan
00:33that the EU has been promising Ukraine for so long
00:35is finally on its way.
00:36And finally, and perhaps most memorably,
00:38the New York Times just came out with a story
00:40alleging that the Ukrainian negotiating team
00:43had offered the American side
00:44to rename the bits of Donbas of eastern Ukraine
00:47that Ukraine controls Donnyland after Donald Trump
00:50in desperate attempt to try and get a bit of buy-in,
00:53a bit of investment from the American side in Ukraine's success.
00:57We're here at the Kyiv Security Forum
00:59and we're going to be talking to Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
01:01He was Ukraine's Prime Minister from 2014 to 2016,
01:05so just after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
01:08And we're going to be asking him whether he worries
01:10that Europe now might throw Ukraine and its interests under the bus,
01:13that it might try and do some kind of deals with Russia
01:16to try and lower energy prices.
01:18We'll also be asking him about the importance of those €90 billion,
01:21whether that really means that Ukraine is out of danger financially.
01:24And finally, we will also be asking his opinion
01:27on that curious New York Times story.
01:29So my first question was about oil.
01:32So Ukraine restarted Druzhbo pipeline yesterday, right?
01:35And we believe that that oil is now flowing to Hungary and Slovakia.
01:39We understand there was a lot of European pressure on Ukraine
01:42to restart that pipeline.
01:43At the same time as Europe is saying,
01:45we want to get away from Russian energy,
01:47we're going to put sanctions on Russian energy coming by ship.
01:50What do you think?
01:51Would you have advised President Zelensky to refuse
01:54and say, no, Druzhbo is going to just stay shut?
01:56Look, let's be frank.
01:58It was a kind of Bergen and Chip,
02:01mainly imposed by Slovakia and Hungary.
02:04If you don't launch, relaunch Druzhbo,
02:07we won't leave the veto on $90 billion loan for Ukraine.
02:12Whether this is right, no, it's completely wrong.
02:16But under current circumstances,
02:19Ukraine needs to get this financial package.
02:22Because this gives us a breathing space
02:26for at least another two years.
02:29And this sends a very clear signal to Putin
02:31that Europe stands by Ukraine.
02:36Europe has done a tremendous job in winning itself
02:39on the dependence of Russian oil and gas.
02:43But they have to accomplish this job.
02:45In 2014, as a Prime Minister of Ukraine,
02:48I was the first one who went after Russian Gazprom.
02:52And we succeeded.
02:53We showed to the entire world that it's doable.
02:57You can be independent out of Russia's hydrocarbs.
03:02So Europe has to accomplish this.
03:08Europe has to stop financing Russia's war chest.
03:12And it's right now in the hands of both European Union
03:15and national governments like Slovakia and Hungary.
03:19But are you worried right now with oil prices
03:21going through the roof in Europe
03:22that some more European governments
03:24might be tempted to go back to Russian energy
03:26because of the prices,
03:27because of the pressure from their populations?
03:29Well, look at the root cause of this price spike.
03:33This is the war of the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
03:37And Russians got a kind of windfall.
03:40It's a huge benefit for Russia.
03:42But I hope it's a temporary.
03:44So let's pray, fingers crossed.
03:52If Europe wants to go back to the old days
03:58and be a hostage of Russia,
04:02so they have to relaunch all this.
04:05Druzhba, pipelines, whatever.
04:07Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, Nord Stream 32.
04:12But we know where it brings us.
04:15Because for Russia, energy is no longer a commodity.
04:22It's a weapon similar to nukes.
04:26This is the way to corrupt national governments
04:29in the European Union.
04:31This is the way to control national governments
04:35in the European Union.
04:37How long do you think Russia can fight?
04:39I mean, now we've had this windfall, as you mentioned.
04:42Previously, it seemed like the Russian budget
04:43was coming under pressure
04:44and they were having to tax the population more.
04:47How long can they fight?
04:48And what will it take to really change the mood in Russia?
04:51Because right now, it seems like for lots of people
04:53in Moscow and Petersburg,
04:54this is a war that's far away,
04:55that doesn't affect them.
04:58I am not in the position to underestimate Russians.
05:03So they still have resources.
05:05They still have big human power.
05:08They still have military-industrial complex.
05:12And they still have a number of allies.
05:15And the key ally of Russia is China,
05:18which provides a bloodline to Russia
05:23and finance, actually, the war chest of Russia.
05:28There were different, I would say,
05:34estimations on how long Russia can sustain this war.
05:39That's true that Russians gained a lot from the war in Iran.
05:44But the truth is that Russia is the economy in the dire straits.
05:48This is the truth.
05:50President Zelenskyy calls Ukrainian drone attacks
05:52on Russian oil facilities long-range sanctions.
05:54We saw, to upset recently,
05:57an attack that even the Russian authorities said was massive.
05:59Normally, they try and downplay the effect.
06:01Do you think Ukraine now is going to come under a lot more pressure
06:04to stop these attacks, to avoid a price spike?
06:11How on earth Ukraine could stop defending itself?
06:17It's a piece of the puzzle.
06:19It is a part of Ukraine's military strategy.
06:22And that's what the chief of staff of President Zelenskyy
06:26just said at the Kyiv security conference.
06:28He was very vocal and he was very clear saying that we will target Russian military
06:38and quasi-military facilities, including the energy sector.
06:42And you think that's worth risking a conflict with Ukraine's Western backers for?
06:50Well, there is no way to back Ukraine on the one hand.
06:57And on the other hand, to have Ukrainian's hand tied behind the back.
07:04And actually, to limit Ukraine and to impose any kind of restrictions
07:09on Ukraine's defense and on Ukraine's ability to target Russian military
07:14and quasi-military assets in Russia.
07:17This is the war.
07:20So we're talking about Russia's ability to wage this war, Russia's resources.
07:23If you go back to the Ukrainian side, now we've had the promise of these 90 billion.
07:28How much of a difference does that actually make?
07:30Does that mean Ukraine is now out of the woods, you know,
07:33out of danger financially for the next year or two?
07:36Or is this just a first step?
07:40Well, in order to win the war, we need, first,
07:43to have a very strong morale.
07:48Second, to have strong military.
07:51Third, to get an ammo from NATO, from Americans and from the Europeans.
07:58And fourth, to get a financial support.
08:01Because you can't win the war without the resources and mainly financial one.
08:09The thing that Europeans decided to provide this 90 billion dollar loan is a very important,
08:20it's a milestone step for Ukraine.
08:22Because this gives us another two years, at least another two years, to prosecute the war.
08:28And I hope, in the end, to win this war.
08:31You mentioned another two years of war, potentially.
08:34It's something that Ukraine can now finance, thanks to these 90 billion.
08:38Where are the peace talks right now?
08:40We had the New York Times reporting recently this Ukrainian suggestion, supposedly,
08:45to call part of Ukrainian Donbass Donnyland.
08:46And is that just a signal?
08:48Does that just show us how unserious these talks are?
08:51That basically no one's really paying attention and that they're trying to signal to us that this is just a
08:55placeholder?
08:56Well, here is my take on these so-called peace talks.
09:00It has nothing to do with the real peace.
09:02It's a sham talks.
09:04It's a KGB special operation in order to drag us into a never-ending talks,
09:09while Russia is pummeling Ukraine, launching the salvos of missiles and drones,
09:16trying to make some kind of incremental games on the battlefield,
09:22trying to undermine the unity inside the European Union,
09:26and trying to make some kind of fissures between Americans and Europeans.
09:31So, never trust the KGB operatives like Putin.
09:40You were Prime Minister at a time when talks were happening in Minsk,
09:42back after the annexation of Crimea.
09:45Could you imagine that negotiators were talking about this,
09:48or do you think this is just a joke that the reporters misunderstood?
09:51I mean, was this the kind of tone of the talks back in Minsk?
09:55You should ask New York Times, but in my humble opinion,
10:00there is no way that Ukraine will cede the land.
10:03And let me put it very bluntly.
10:06Russia is not interested in getting Donbas.
10:12It is a trap.
10:13The ultimate goal of Putin is to take over an entire Ukraine.
10:21And even in case if we, well, theoretically,
10:26elaborate on an idea of some kind of land concessions,
10:31which I strongly oppose, just trust me,
10:34the next step of Putin would be no NATO, no Ukrainian military,
10:39no Ukrainian state, no Ukrainian language,
10:41and actually a complete and full surrender of Ukraine.
10:47Which would never happen.
10:52There are lots of American guests here at this forum.
10:56What's the sense you get talking to them off the camera in private?
11:00Is Ukraine still going to get the weapons that Europe is paying for through Pearl?
11:04Are those Patriot interceptors still going to come?
11:07Or is Ukraine now at the end of the queue behind Qatar,
11:09behind Saudi, behind all these other countries?
11:12Are we going to live in a reality here in Kyiv
11:13where ballistic missiles don't get shot down anymore?
11:15I believe that you've seen the reports that Americans exhausted
11:22both air defense systems and its military depots.
11:28That's true.
11:29And I'm really concerned whether Americans will execute
11:34already committed and prepaid deals with the NATO,
11:40and whether Americans would be able to deliver what is needed
11:44for the defense of Ukraine.
11:47I hope that we will get what is needed.
11:54And Europeans have to shift the gear and to scale up its production too.
12:02So right now we are in a completely, I would say, peculiar situation on the one hand.
12:10But on the other hand, look, the contracts have been signed.
12:16They have been prepaid.
12:22And around 80% of American people still support Ukraine.
12:28And this U.S. administration have to take this into account.
12:32I just wanted your sense of where we are in this war, right?
12:35This is obviously the open question of this conference.
12:37Are we at the beginning of the end?
12:39Are we at the end of the beginning?
12:40Is this a war that Ukraine has to prepare to fight for as long as it can go on?
12:46This war is for the long haul.
12:49And I said it three years ago, actually four years ago,
12:53when everyone believed that there is a light in the end of the tunnel in a few days.
12:58This is the war of attrition.
13:00This is a grinding war.
13:03And the only way to win the peace
13:08is to provide everything that is needed for Ukraine to win this war.
13:13Starting with the bullets and then with the air defense systems.
13:17Starting with the sanctions and then with the enormous pressure on Russia and China.
13:25I don't have a crystal ball.
13:29But I have my convictions.
13:35And I believe that we will win this war.
13:40We will save Ukraine.
13:42And the time will come when Ukraine is to become the NATO and EU member.
13:47It is for the long haul.
13:49It is a very bumpy and bloody road.
13:53But we will accomplish this mission.
13:57Thank you for your time.
13:58Thank you, sir.
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