00:00This Astro season is going to get real interesting, real fast.
00:04If they keep pitching and playing as poorly as they've been playing,
00:07they've lost 12 out of their last 14 games.
00:10They started the year 6-3.
00:13They are now 8-15 on the season.
00:16And so I'm curious what the appetite is for Astro fans
00:19and what Chandler is proposing.
00:21I don't even know if he's proposing it as much as he's pointing out,
00:24like, hey, the longer you wait on doing something like this,
00:26the more expensive it might get.
00:27And that's offering one of those early extensions to Cam Smith,
00:32who's had a good season so far.
00:33He's been one of the bright spots this season.
00:36He shows every sign of being a guy who's evolving into a star player,
00:41picked up defense in right field in no time at all his rookie year.
00:45And he's come around as a hitter, too.
00:47He's a better hitter this year than he was last year,
00:50when at the end of the season it felt like the only reason he was on the team
00:53is because he was on the team at the beginning of the year
00:55and they made a big deal out of him making the team out of spring training.
00:59He's a legit MLB right fielder now, man.
01:03And the trend we've seen recently is we saw Roman Anthony get a big deal
01:08with the Red Sox after just 40-something games a year ago,
01:11$130 million over six, seven years, something like that.
01:15Connor Griffin, the high draft pick for the Pirates,
01:19got a $140 million deal to buy out his arbitration in a couple free agency years.
01:24And the big one was McGonagill of the Tigers got, just last week, I think,
01:29just got $150 million for eight years, something like that,
01:32to buy out his first two or three years of free agency.
01:36Jim Crane has done deals like this before,
01:39but the price of poker is going way up.
01:42And Cam Smith's only in his second year right now,
01:44so it'd be at least a seven- or eight-year deal probably.
01:48It would be, and yet it's also, I mean, this is probably the last year you do it
01:54before he just decides, oh, nope, I'm going to kick it down the road
01:56and take free agency, and we know how it goes with the Astros after that.
02:00I think that, look, it's never been more clear that the Astros have just 100%
02:07reached the end of the line when it comes to operating with a bereft farm system.
02:14You know, they had one of the best farm systems in the history of the world in 2014, 2015,
02:22and then you start bringing those guys up, and it was awesome.
02:26You had a golden era.
02:27But now you've just, by those guys coming up and then leaving via free agency,
02:33by trades that you made along the way to sustain the golden era,
02:37I mean, the cupboard is bare.
02:40And at some point it feels like, look, look,
02:43of all the criticism that Dana Brown is getting and, you know,
02:48rightfully deserves a lot of it right now, the Cam Smith trade was awesome.
02:52The Cam Smith trade was a great deal, and it looks like you got everything you could have hoped for,
03:00especially if you're going to lose Kyle Tucker anyway.
03:04Like, have him be one of the guys who's the elders on the team
03:07when your farm system starts paying dividends sometime in the future again.
03:12After you've built this system up and you've got some prospects to care about,
03:16have some veterans on there, and he's the perfect guy to do it with.
03:19I wonder, like, deep down in their hearts what the players,
03:23the guys who would be core guys moving forward,
03:27they don't have many of them, but, like, Hunter Brown would be one.
03:29Jordan Alvarez for sure would be one.
03:31And Hunter Brown's under team control for three more years or whatever it is.
03:35Jordan's under contract through 2028.
03:38Jeremy Pena is much more pending than both of those guys,
03:41but I think Pena's in that category.
03:43Cam Smith, I think, is in that category.
03:45I wonder deep down what they think of the direction of the organization right now.
03:50You know, especially someone like Pena, who's only, what,
03:53like he's this year and next year, and then he's a free agent.
03:56Does Pena honestly look at this team as one that can be rebuilt into a contender
04:02anytime soon, especially given how awful, awful the pitching is with this team right now?
04:07Oh, yeah.
04:08So there's the long term.
04:09Do they want to be here for that, you know?
04:11Right, well, and I guess the other part of it, too,
04:14is what kind of counsel is he getting from guys like Correa,
04:17who says some really nice things about Cam Smith in this article.
04:22But just is there a whole lot of, like, hey, listen, man, don't hold your breath.
04:28Like, it's, you just, it is what it is with the Astros.
04:32It's been this way forever.
04:33And just keep your head down and keep working and just get to free agency.
04:37Yeah, we don't know what's going to be offering.
04:39And enjoy your time while you're here.
04:41Yeah, and we don't know.
04:42It doesn't, the tone of Chandler's article is one of,
04:48and I'm not saying he's saying this directly,
04:49but the tone of the article is one that paints a team that's kind of sitting on their hands
04:53when it comes to doing anything with Cam Smith.
04:55And the longer you wait, the higher the price of poker becomes.
04:59And eventually, we know that Jim Crane, when he's looking for a poker or a blackjack table,
05:03metaphorically, when it comes to baseball contracts,
05:06he does not sit down at the 10-year, 9-year, 10-year contract table.
05:10He does not sit down at contracts that are over 150 million bucks.
05:15The biggest contracts that Jim Crane himself has given out has been $151 million deal to Jose Altuve.
05:22And the longest deal he's given out, I believe, is just five years.
05:25Josh Hader got a five-year deal.
05:27Jose Altuve got a five-year deal.
05:29You know, an extension of five years.
05:31Was Jordan's six years?
05:32Jordan's?
05:33Yeah, I'm not totally sure the length of Jordan's.
05:36I'm going off a Chandler's article where he says five is the longest he's given out.
05:40Six-year, $115 million.
05:42Okay.
05:42Well, okay, according to Gemini, but they screw that up a lot.
05:45Okay.
05:46Yeah, six-year, $115 million.
05:48Okay.
05:48In 2022.
05:50And that was when Jordan had, you know, Jordan had had those,
05:55like the injuries that had led up to that and everything.
05:58And they struck at the appropriate time right there.
06:01Yeah.
06:01That remains one of the best contracts in baseball, given that contract.
06:05Especially this year.
06:06Yeah.
06:06He's been an MVP this year.
06:10I would do a deal for Cam Smith.
06:12I would do, you know, an eight-year, $150 million.
06:15You're basically getting him for, you know,
06:19because that would essentially be something where they're just, you know,
06:23they're foregoing arbitration in those three years.
06:26He's going to get more than the minimum over the next couple of years,
06:29but he's probably going to get a lot less than he would have gotten on the
06:32open market in free agency in, you know, 2032 or 2033, whatever it is.
06:37I would do that deal with Cam Smith.
06:38I think Cam Smith checks all of the boxes, man, both little Will Anderson-like.
06:42I'm not, you know, I'm not putting him on that level,
06:44but Cam Smith is a guy that,
06:46and obviously a different level of contract, different sport,
06:49but I think he fits in that category where you go, man,
06:51if I'm going to give this kind of money to somebody,
06:53especially a young player with a small track record, relatively speaking,
06:57he's got to be somebody that is face of the franchise type,
07:01that you don't worry about anything off of the field with,
07:04and that you feel like is going to continue to do everything he can to improve
07:07as a baseball player.
07:08And I think that that doesn't, likewise with the Jordan Alvarez,
07:11obviously in hindsight it looks great.
07:14And that was with, he had three years remaining in arbitration at the time.
07:19So I feel like being a little bit more aggressive than Jordan
07:24and keeping up with the Joneses and what other guys have gotten their extensions for,
07:28that doesn't seem like as big a stretch as, say, giving, you know,
07:31giving a free agent a 10-year deal or something.
07:35We know the Astros are never going to go that route.
07:37That's right.
07:37But if you take a guy in-house and you're basically buying out his arbitration years
07:40and tacking a couple years on on top of that,
07:42they've done that before,
07:43and are they just willing to keep up with the going rate?
07:48Yep.
07:48100% Cam Smith, yes.
07:50Yep, yep.
07:50I would do it with Cam Smith.
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