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Seth and Sean take a look at the Astros' projected season win total, compare it to that of the A's and Mariners, and Sean lays out his favorite bets on Astros player futures.
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00:00The win totals, the revised win totals heading into the season are out, Seth, for Major League
00:04Baseball, and this is low going into the season, and I know this because every year I bet on
00:11the Astros, and I've gone over the last several years, and more often than not, it's worked
00:17out, but this is the lowest heading into the season number that I can remember in a long,
00:24long time, and it's actually gone up since spring training started.
00:28For whatever reason, the Astros, who are viewed as a coin flip chance to make the playoffs,
00:33yes, minus 120, no, minus 110, that's the amount you would have to wager to win $100, so it's
00:40basically a little over 50-50, they make the postseason, 85 and a half wins.
00:44You know what, Sean, it's a win for you, I think, if you and I kind of disagree a little
00:50bit on how much to read into spring training results, but you, because you enjoy life and
00:56are a hopeful person, you read into them and you say, look, the Astros performed very well
01:02on the pitching side of things especially, that maybe that's enough, there's enough data,
01:08enough of a sample size that they're looking at that pitching staff, and they don't, because
01:11they don't know what, nobody knew what to think of EMI necessarily until you'd seen them
01:15start to pitch to Major League ballplayers.
01:17You didn't know what to think necessarily of Mike Burrows with his limited Major League
01:21experience, but the sum total of it all is that it looks like they might have a more
01:26competitive pitching staff than people wanted to give them credit for six or seven weeks
01:30ago, good job, Sean.
01:31Thank you, yeah, well, yeah, great, all I did was talk the number up a little bit, but I'm
01:38already on the under, I'm not bullish on the Astros this season.
01:40The competitiveness of the West might be the biggest thing to be concerned about there,
01:44you can look at it, the Astros in isolation, are they better than you thought they were,
01:48yeah, but it looks like the A's might be a competitive team this year, you know, that's
01:53difficult.
01:54It's bad enough that the Astros have never had to share a division with a team as good
01:58as the Mariners are right now, throughout the entire, throughout the entire run that
02:03they had going back to the first World Series, they haven't had to share the division with
02:08a team that's been remotely in their league until the last couple of years where it's become
02:12more competitive, and that's all it's been the last couple of years is just more competitive,
02:17even last year, the Mariners didn't run away with the division last year, they won by three
02:21games, they won 90 games, when the Astros were at their peak, 95 wins was a down year
02:27for them during that, during the golden era there, they were routinely over 100 wins,
02:32this Mariners team is capable of that, like that, they've never had to be in a division
02:37with it, they've said they've never had to be in a division with a team that is viewed
02:41as nearly on the talent level as the elite level Astro teams.
02:45What's the over-under on the Rangers and the A's?
02:47Let me pull that up, I actually kept it in my inbox, as I thought you were going to ask.
02:51Rangers were an even 500 last year at 81 and 81.
02:54Okay, here we go, these are the, I'll do the whole AL West, the Mariners are 90 and a half,
03:02so again, if you're just tuning in, the Astros season win total, 85 and a half.
03:05That's exactly where they were, they were at 90, they won 90 games last year.
03:09The Mariners did, yep, that's right, the A's, who were just under athletics, oh wow, might
03:16be some value here, 75 and a half, could be some value on the A's.
03:21I think they're a better team this year than they were last year.
03:22I think they are too, they've got a good lineup, and they play in that band box, so if you're
03:26going to be, you know, like they've got a lineup, Garrett the web guy, right on Q, was
03:31texting us earlier when we were giving the A's some love, and he said they've got three guys
03:35that are easily going to hit over 30 home runs in that minor league ballpark.
03:38They had 76 wins last year.
03:39Okay, so they're right around their number also, and I think they might be better this
03:44year.
03:45Boy, they might be, I hate betting over on a team in the division, but money's money.
03:49You asked about the Rangers as well, 83 and a half.
03:53What did they win last year?
03:54They were 81 and 81 last year.
03:56Okay, so everybody's right around their number that they were last year.
03:59Just to round it out, the Los Angeles Angels, 70 and a half.
04:04They're terrible.
04:04They were 72 and 90 last year.
04:06Okay, so everybody's within like two games or whatever their number was last year, so
04:09there you go.
04:11So, yeah, I just think, boy, I would go over on Seattle.
04:15I would go over on the Athletics, and I'm under on the Astros.
04:19I'm just not, I am just not bullish on the season as a whole.
04:23I know you said that I'm feeling optimism about the pitching staff, but I just don't know that
04:28top to bottom, this is a team that's talented enough to compete in the American League to get
04:32into the post, they'll compete to get into the postseason.
04:34I just know they're good.
04:35I don't know if they're good enough to actually do it.
04:37I just, part of it, too, is that I can't go into this year saying what I did each of
04:44the last couple years where I would say, well, they can't possibly be as injured this year
04:48as they were last year.
04:49But now I've been beaten down.
04:51I've learned my lesson.
04:52I've been beaten down.
04:53I don't have that optimistic attitude that Sean T. Pendergast does.
04:58I'm saying you're optimistic as you're taking the under on the Astros.
05:01I know, I know.
05:02You're a pessimistic bastard.
05:03That's what I'd say.
05:04I'm very conflicted because I'm on.
05:07Now, granted, that under 84.5 ticket I got before I watched Emai and Burroughs, and I expect
05:15Hunter Brown to have a good year, I'll make that point here in a second, so I got that
05:20ticket before.
05:21I'm not going to put any more on them on the under, but we'll see.
05:26Here are my four player prop bets or futures bets for the season that I really, really like.
05:33Carlos Correa, his number for RBIs, 57.5.
05:4057.5 for the season.
05:43Carlos Correa, who's going to be batting in the middle of the order, right?
05:46He'll probably be like the five-hole hitter, right?
05:48Because I'm guessing it goes, you know, Pena, you know, Altuve's going to be in the three-hole.
05:52Jordan's in there somewhere.
05:54You know, I don't know if they're going to be a great offensive team like the elite Astro
05:57teams.
05:58They got a lot of guys that can hit, though.
05:59It's 57.5?
06:0157.5.
06:02So, okay.
06:03So, in 2024, he had 54.
06:06Okay.
06:07Last year, he had 52.
06:09I would feel comfortable, like you said, being in the middle of that lineup or being at that
06:15spot in the lineup.
06:16Yes.
06:17I don't want to say that lineup, like all nine is incredible or anything.
06:20No, no.
06:20But being there in that lineup, but also theoretically staying healthier, playing third base and just
06:27getting a boost to his batting that might be very real because it's not as physically
06:34taxing playing third base.
06:37Yeah, I would take the over on that.
06:38And RBI is based largely on what you got batting in front of you.
06:41He's just got better players in front of him than he did in Minnesota the last two years.
06:45So, and I know he was here for the last couple months, whatever.
06:48Jeremy Pena, under 65.5 RBIs.
06:53And here's why.
06:54Jeremy Pena is going to bat leadoff for this.
06:56Well, first of all, if there's injuries, then under is, you know, then the under gets even
07:01more tasty.
07:02And, you know, Pena, I know he missed a bunch of games because he got beaned.
07:05He can't control that.
07:05But he had the oblique injury at the end of the year last year.
07:08We don't know if he's going to miss some games to start the season yet or not.
07:11I suppose we'll find out.
07:12Well, we'll know by when, by Thursday, I guess.
07:15But here's a big reason why under 65.5 RBIs, Seth, and I know Pena became much more of a
07:20power threat this last year, more of a run producer.
07:24I can't trust the bottom part of that order to get on base in front of him to give him
07:29RBI opportunities all that much.
07:31Right now, the bottom third of the order is Zach Cole or Joey Loperfito, Jake Myers,
07:38and we don't know what Cam Smith is yet.
07:40You know, to me, if you're betting on the over on 65.5, you think Cam Smith is going to
07:45be,
07:46you know, you think that you've got more optimism about the offense you're going to get out of
07:49the outfield than the average person does.
07:52So yeah, boy, remember that last year when they moved him to lead off, he was in his
07:58first hair in his first 34 games.
08:00He had three 58, six home runs.
08:02Yep.
08:03Yep.
08:03And he's gonna be doing that all year now.
08:05So yeah, or batting lead off all year.
08:07I don't think he'll be hitting three 58 all year, but he, he, he figured some things out
08:10last year, but I just said, he doesn't hit three 58.
08:12He's a bum.
08:13He's a bum.
08:13That's what I say.
08:14Trade him.
08:15The last two, these are player prop bets for the Astros that I, that I've,
08:19already gotten on a Hunter Brown over 12 wins.
08:23I think he had 11 wins last year, maybe.
08:26And he had horrible, horrible luck at times when it came to offense behind him and things
08:32like that.
08:33Guys, I'll hit that over all day long, over 12 wins on Hunter Brown.
08:36He's one of the top five pitchers in baseball.
08:39Last one, Josh Hader under 31 and a half saves.
08:44I'm betting on injury right here.
08:46And I know Hader until last year was an iron man, never got injured.
08:51But the injury last year combined with the aggravation of his biceps in, in spring training
09:00and really not having a timeline on when he's coming back.
09:04I mean, 31 and a half, 31 and a half saves for a team that's forecasted to win 85 games.
09:11He needs to, he needs to play the entire team.
09:13Like he, he misses two or three weeks.
09:15He's behind the eight ball on that number big time already.
09:18Yeah.
09:18So that's just a, that's a simple logistical bet on your part.
09:21Yeah.
09:22Yeah.
09:22Just it's, I think they're going to be at best an average baseball team and they're going
09:27to have to play in a slew of one run games for him to save over 31 and a half
09:32games.
09:33If they're a mid eighties win team.
09:35So those are my, uh, that's your free money for the day.
09:38People you're welcome.
09:40Free money.
09:41Just giving it away here on sports radio.
09:42Six.
09:43Nice that you're, uh, you're generous with philanthropy is a, we've, we've helped people save a lot
09:47of money between our work with own well, but then also, Oh, the, uh, you know, the find
09:53my property that you can do that you've ever lived in, go back to their state's website
09:58for find my property.
10:00It, uh, I can always forget what the one in Texas is called, but I, uh, I unearthed
10:05$8 from Pennsylvania.
10:07Did you get it yet?
10:08I got it.
10:08I got my $8 check.
10:10Okay.
10:10It was a banner day in the pain household.
10:12It was an act.
10:12You know what?
10:13It was disappointing too, because I think Pennsylvania was the one I went through.
10:15I, every couple of years I do it cause something will show up.
10:18It's some kind of rebate you got or something.
10:19And so Pennsylvania, this is cause my agent was based in Pennsylvania back when I played
10:24football.
10:25Okay.
10:25So this is from something from like 20 years ago.
10:28Oh, your crooked agent was hiding $8 for you.
10:31$8.
10:31Yeah.
10:32You hear these sob stories all the time in the NFL guys going broke.
10:37Uh, I got, I got 120, but sometimes you can't figure out what it's from or anything.
10:42As it is, sometimes it's like an insurance premium refund.
10:45I don't know.
10:46I don't know what that $8 came from, but I'm going to enjoy it.
10:50I'm going to live large with that $8.
10:52So I've only done it in Texas.
10:54So if I go back any state you've ever lived in, and then sometimes I don't think I've
10:58ever gotten one in a state that I didn't live in, but I got like $125 coming from Florida.
11:04And I don't know until I get the check exactly what it was for.
11:07How many States have you lived in?
11:08I think just three.
11:10Oh, really?
11:10Yeah.
11:11Three.
11:11Okay.
11:12Okay.
11:12Gotcha.
11:13Um, okay.
11:14That would explain the, I'm like, Pennsylvania was your agent.
11:17You just said that.
11:18Okay.
11:18Gotcha.
11:19Yeah.
11:19Yeah.
11:19Pennsylvania was, yeah.
11:20So now because I, because I struck gold in Pennsylvania, now I'm venturing out into the
11:25other territories and, uh, I'm, uh, I, I searched, uh, I figured I searched Washington or excuse
11:32me.
11:32I searched Oregon the other day just cause you know, I've got a kid in college there.
11:36So maybe there was something that fell by the wayside.
11:38Nothing though.
11:39No dice.
11:39Nothing.
11:40Nothing.
11:40No, you're like Yukon Cornelius and a Rudolph and you stick your pick in there and you see
11:44if there's any gold on the end of it and you just lick the end of it.
11:46You're like, no, nothing.
11:47Yeah.
11:48That's what Oregon was hard work.
11:49It's hard work.
11:50Oh yeah.
11:50A lot of Americans aren't tough enough to put in the time anymore.
11:52Like I am going to round up the, the various, uh, you know, nearly $10 that I have laying
11:58around in some places, Navy seals, first responder, Seth Payne digging for gold in them,
12:03their Hills.
12:04If you factor in all of the other States I've searched and, uh, the, the money that
12:09I've gotten just in the last couple of weekends, what is your time?
12:13We're probably working out to about $4 an hour.
12:15Yeah.
12:15I think it's like Brandy asked me to do something.
12:20I'm working in here, dude, dude, I'm working, but the dopamine hit on the few States where
12:26there is one, it's like playing the slot.
12:29Yeah.
12:29I am kind of like, okay, let's see South Dakota.
12:31Well, we got South Dakota.
12:32Ah, yes.
12:34On to North Dakota.
12:35Oh my God.
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