- 3 hours ago
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Philip, let me start with you and just get a sense of your understanding of the state of play.
00:04You were there in Pakistan last weekend for those talks with Vice President J.D. Vance.
00:07There hasn't been an official announcement of a second round of those talks.
00:11What are you hearing from sources there on the ground of what might happen there in the coming days
00:15when it comes to negotiations over peace in the region?
00:19Well, look, there's certainly optimism that Islamabad can be the city and indeed Pakistan,
00:24the country as the facilitator that puts up a second round of talks between the United States and Iran.
00:30Of course, as you just mentioned, there's all sorts of confusion right now
00:34as to whether these two sides are close enough right now
00:38or can come close enough over the next few days to actually meet in person.
00:43It seemed like everything was falling into place yesterday, essentially,
00:47the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah,
00:51and that was a holding ceasefire and indeed largely still is.
00:54That is a key building block toward further talks between Iran and the United States.
00:59Then the announcement from the president that the Strait of Hormuz was open again,
01:03that was an announcement that was mirrored by the Iranian foreign minister.
01:07But then it was, again, entirely stopped by the Iranian leadership.
01:13It now says the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
01:15And indeed, the U.K. military, which is the authority on this kind of thing,
01:18says that not one but two ships, one tanker and one cargo vessel have been attacked,
01:24one by Iranian gunships of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
01:28That's according to the U.K. military.
01:30So things not exactly under control right now, I think is the fair way to put it.
01:35But that doesn't mean that the two sides cannot get together at the negotiating table.
01:40The rhetoric can be all over the place at the high level,
01:43and it might even be for domestic consumption in the United States and Iran indeed as well,
01:49while the two sides still are able to get together at the negotiating table
01:53and somehow not necessarily come to an overarching peace agreement,
01:57but at least get that little bit closer, at the very least in the short term,
02:01to extending a ceasefire.
02:03Because the ceasefire between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other,
02:07it is only two weeks long.
02:08It's only got a few days left, and that needs to be extended.
02:11That is why Pakistan hopes it can get the two sides together here in Islamabad as quickly as possible.
02:16Michelle, I want to bring you in, because you did a really great podcast
02:20talking about how Pakistan ended up where it is,
02:24with the only real country, with maybe one other exception, that could facilitate these talks.
02:28And then, how well are they going to be able to execute this?
02:31Because it's a terrible position.
02:33We've been saying, Iran is saying one thing is true,
02:36the President of the United States is saying the other thing isn't true.
02:38Is it clear what the Pakistanis are saying, either to the U.S. or to Iran?
02:42Well, I think, as I think we probably all understand,
02:45that what happens actually in a negotiation,
02:48at the point that the parties meet the most successful ones,
02:50there's so much that goes on behind the scenes.
02:53And it's clear that in the last week since the Islamabad talks happened,
02:57Pakistan has been busy on the diplomatic front.
03:00So the army chief went to Tehran a few days ago.
03:02So there have been face-to-face meetings, as well as the working of the phones.
03:07I think they will be really hoping that the relationship that was built up
03:10with the Trump administration in the last year continues to bear fruit.
03:14And frankly, it is really the only diplomatic possibility
03:18in this very complicated world that we have.
03:21Pakistan hasn't had the easiest relationship with Iran.
03:24About 18 months ago, they were striking what they call terrorist hideouts
03:28on each other's soil.
03:29So that hasn't been without its own complexity.
03:32But they have found themselves in this pivotal position,
03:34so they're going to continue to try and use that as much as possible.
03:38But I think it's clear from the gap between what the President has said
03:41in the last 24 hours, from what we know is happening in the Strait of Hormuz,
03:46and also from what the Iranians are saying,
03:48that there is an immense task to do,
03:50that even at the point where there is some kind of agreement,
03:53how fragile it is likely to be.
03:56So we're seven weeks into this,
03:58and if anything, while we have some moments of hope,
04:01I think it continues to be an incredibly complex
04:04and confusing international situation.
04:06It seems like a very tall order, not a lot of time.
04:08Jeff, based on the issue of complexity,
04:10and what you're hearing from the White House
04:11about how they're viewing this conflict and the next steps forward,
04:14you have a President who, at least if you read these social media posts,
04:17seems very eager for this to be over,
04:19to put some real finality on all of this.
04:22We were speaking with Phil Crowther just a moment ago
04:23about the prospects of continued talks in Pakistan.
04:25Are we hearing anything from the President's aides
04:29about what those might look like,
04:30the appetite for those talks,
04:31and indeed, if the Vice President would be the point person for those talks,
04:34if they were to happen once again?
04:36Well, the President's aides don't want to get ahead of the President,
04:38so that's kind of a constant challenge,
04:40I think, both for the people who work in the White House
04:42and for those of us who cover it.
04:44They take their signals from what the President is saying,
04:47and we do too.
04:49The President has said that he could potentially go to Pakistan.
04:53That seems pretty unlikely given the security situation.
04:57What I've been told by at least one aide at the White House
05:00is that it's likely to be the same trio
05:04that we saw the last time.
05:05So Vice President Vance, Jared Kushner,
05:08who's the President's son-in-law,
05:09and Steve Woodcoff, who has served as an envoy
05:11for President Trump in Russia and on the Iran talks.
05:16So that's likely to be the cast of characters,
05:19but again, there's still a question mark
05:20over when this will happen,
05:22and there's also a question mark over
05:24whether or not they've actually laid out
05:26the sketches of a peace deal
05:29in the way that President Trump has said.
05:31The President, again, really helping boost sentiment
05:35within the markets and elsewhere on Friday
05:38with his positive language about a potential deal,
05:41but Iran has not been confirming most of the elements
05:44that the President said have been agreed.
05:46And I believe we have,
05:48I'm not sure if we have them ready,
05:49the pool is getting ready to go in.
05:50I think we have some live pictures from the White House.
05:52Yes, we do.
05:53This is the President in the Oval Office.
05:57It's on a different topic.
05:58Vicky's speaking on psychedelics right now,
06:00so we're going to stick with this,
06:01and we're going to wait to see what questions are asked.
06:05Phil, I want to go to you,
06:05because what Jeff was just talking about,
06:08what has been done in advance of these negotiations.
06:11You know, this is an administration
06:11that kind of likes to muscle its way
06:13through some of these tough talks.
06:14And look, I'll be honest with you,
06:15someone's covered diplomacy.
06:16Sometimes that's useful.
06:17Sometimes people are a little too rigid
06:19about format and working groups,
06:20and sometimes that's helpful.
06:22But I was talking with a couple
06:23of State Department sources this morning
06:25who told me, to their knowledge,
06:26no one from the State Department
06:27is scheduled to travel there.
06:29You're on the ground.
06:30Have you seen any advance work,
06:31any pre-delegates showing up from the U.S.?
06:34To Michelle's point,
06:35is there energy on the ground?
06:37Are people talking in preparations for these talks,
06:39or are they just not there yet?
06:43Look, in terms of visitors,
06:45any diplomats or any high-ranking officials,
06:47nothing to report at this point.
06:49Essentially, both countries,
06:50both governments, Iran and the United States,
06:53anyone who would take part in these talks,
06:55they've been told to be ready to travel,
06:57essentially, at a moment's notice.
07:00Islamabad is getting ready for this,
07:01that much is for sure.
07:02Any of us who've covered big summits
07:05know that this is a city that is getting ready
07:07for further high-profile visits.
07:09It is pretty obvious with events being cancelled,
07:12with everything being prepared, roads closed,
07:14that much is pretty obvious.
07:16You have to be ready just in case.
07:18It all depends, of course, as well,
07:20what kind of security preparations you need.
07:22It depends on how high the visitors might be.
07:25Will the vice president be here again?
07:27And as Jeff just mentioned,
07:28the president himself did at least float that idea somewhat,
07:32that he would be willing to come to Islamabad
07:34if there was something to sign.
07:37We all know that he loves to sign an agreement,
07:39some kind of a peace agreement.
07:40If there is one to sign,
07:42he wants to be the one who signs it,
07:44not someone like Steve Whitcoff or J.D. Vance.
07:46In that case, I think you can expect him to be travelling here
07:49despite a security situation
07:51that hasn't led to many U.S. presidents,
07:53after all, visiting Pakistan over the last few decades.
07:57But there has been speculation here for the whole week,
08:01despite the fact that the talks at the weekend
08:03ended in what first was seen as a failure
08:06because there was nothing to sign,
08:07there was no agreement, there was nothing.
08:09But still afterwards, you know,
08:10we did get the details that they did agree upon a lot more
08:14than someone like J.D. Vance was willing to admit
08:17in his short press appearance
08:18after those talks came to an end.
08:20So there is more agreement
08:22than you might be able to make out from the rhetoric,
08:24at least, when it comes to President Trump
08:26or indeed Iran's president,
08:29its foreign minister,
08:30or indeed its parliament speaker.
08:32Some of that rhetoric,
08:33especially over the last 12 hours or so,
08:35has been particularly aggressive.
08:37That does not mean that the two sides
08:39can't come to the negotiating table.
08:41And Islamabad is certainly preparing for that eventuality.
08:43Fair point.
08:44Philip Crowder talking about the president's propensity
08:45for signing documents.
08:47He's in the Oval Office signing what we gather
08:48is an executive order
08:49that would accelerate access to research
08:51on psychedelic drugs.
08:53Michelle Hussain,
08:54I'll take advantage of you being here from London
08:56and ask you sort of what the mood
08:58or conversation is like
08:59among the British government,
09:00other European governments,
09:01about the Middle East.
09:02So there was an effort a couple of days ago
09:04to gather some allies of the U.S.,
09:08strained as they are,
09:09to talk about sort of securing the Strait of Hormuz.
09:11What is the conversation like
09:12now many weeks after that initial entreaty
09:14from the president of the United States
09:15for these allies to get involved
09:17in patrolling and protecting it?
09:18Well, I think there's clearly the willingness
09:20to be part of the solution
09:22once the solution looks like it's being agreed.
09:25And I think it's really worth remembering
09:27how, what is at stake economically, globally,
09:31because I've been struck by being in the U.S.
09:33in the last week,
09:34how far away the war feels.
09:35And yet in the U.K.,
09:37even though it's not in the position
09:39of India and Pakistan,
09:40where so much energy is coming from the Gulf.
09:43However, a country like the U.K.'s G7 economy
09:46remains a large energy importer.
09:48And I've seen like within about a week
09:51of this war breaking out,
09:52people who saw their mortgage deals
09:55being pulled from the market,
09:56the U.K. government realizing
09:57that with what growth forecasts
09:59are now looking like,
10:00the things that it hoped to do later in the year,
10:02and it's a government that's under a lot of pressure
10:05from voters to the left and to the right,
10:08a lot of those calculations
10:09are now being completely upended.
10:11So there's immense self-interest
10:15and a prize for getting involved
10:18to try and make any solution last.
10:20But equally, people want to,
10:22countries like the U.K.,
10:22want to keep a distance
10:23from the actual theater of hostility.
10:25So it's a really, really difficult dilemma.
10:29Like they want to work something out,
10:30but equally not wanting to be actually involved
10:34in this conflict.
10:35Jeff Mason, I want to ask you,
10:36because we had some sound earlier
10:38from the president on Air Force One
10:40being asked about what we've been talking about,
10:42the different messaging from Iran
10:44and from the president himself.
10:46You know, the president saying
10:47Iran has agreed on all this
10:48and Iranian, it's a little unclear
10:50who exactly is in charge,
10:51but different ministers, officials
10:53saying that's not the case.
10:55And the president said something
10:56that flies a little interesting to me.
10:57He basically said, well, you know,
10:58they've got their own people
10:59that they've got to, you know, deal with.
11:00I've got my people.
11:01It was almost the equivalent
11:03of all politics are local.
11:04He didn't seem that worried about this.
11:07Do you think that is because,
11:08as we've been talking about,
11:09there have been behind-the-scenes communications,
11:11he's confident that something will go forward,
11:12or do you think it's just the president
11:14brushing off any potential criticism?
11:16I think it's at least in part
11:17because he's just over it
11:19and wants it to be done.
11:20And so he has shifted his language
11:23to talk in a more positive way.
11:24He has said things like,
11:26I trust the Iranians.
11:27He sees a reason to trust Iranians.
11:29That is exactly polar opposite
11:31of the language that he was using
11:34before this war began,
11:35during the war.
11:37And honestly,
11:38just the history between Iran
11:40and the United States
11:42and the international community
11:43for decades.
11:44So I don't know where that trust
11:47is coming from now,
11:48other than the fact that the president
11:49is absolutely eager
11:51for this to be over.
11:52That's not to say
11:53that they haven't agreed some things.
11:55And there are some hints
11:58as to what they have agreed.
12:00In fact, ironically,
12:01some of those things
12:01are somewhat similar
12:03to the agreement
12:04that was made
12:04under President Barack Obama's administration,
12:07which the president
12:08pulled out of
12:09during his first term.
12:10That will be
12:11a very interesting irony
12:13if any eventual agreement
12:17ends up looking similar to that.
12:20But for now,
12:21the details are sketchy.
12:22The details and whether talks
12:23are going to happen are sketchy.
12:24But what is not sketchy
12:26is that the president
12:27is pretty clearly moving
12:29in the direction
12:29of wanting to have peace,
12:31even if that doesn't mean
12:33all the details
12:33that he has laid out
12:35are fully accurate,
12:36or even if he doesn't achieve
12:38all of the goals
12:39that he and many conservative hawks
12:42around him
12:42would like to see achieved.
12:44Jeff, we've got about
12:4560 seconds left here.
12:46You've been listening to the president
12:47as he went to Nevada,
12:48to Arizona after that.
12:49How much is this eclipsing
12:51what he wants to be talking about?
12:52Be that psychedelics today
12:54or the economy.
12:55Including Suzy Wilds.
12:56Yeah, or the economy
12:57as he was scheduled
12:58to speak about in Nevada.
12:59A lot.
13:00It's a lot.
13:01And the reason for that,
13:02of course,
13:02is that the midterm elections
13:03are getting closer
13:04and closer every day.
13:05November seems like
13:06it's far off,
13:07but polls have,
13:09his popularity
13:10is reflected in polls
13:11have really been hurt
13:12by the high gasoline prices.
13:14And that is at the top
13:15of their minds.
13:16And they're wanting
13:16to change the subject
13:17and change the trajectory
13:19going into that
13:20very pivotal fall.
Comments