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ITL dives into what could derail Houston in this first-round series.
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00:00Yeah, I hope that everybody has a ton of energy for what's about to happen over the next several days
00:05with the Rockets.
00:06I know that there's a little bit of, like, kind of shine that's off of this series because the right
00:13guys aren't there.
00:14But I'm not allowing that to have me not enjoy Rockets playoff basketball, right?
00:20You get that for the second season in a row.
00:22And I think because of the way it's laid out that a lot of people have kind of just assumed
00:26that the Rockets are going to make light work of the Lakers.
00:28Yeah, I've already picked them to win this series in five.
00:31Could I see it going six because the Rockets do Rockets things?
00:35Absolutely.
00:36But I'm just going to go ahead and pick Rockets in five just off top.
00:40And instead of going through matchups, I want to go through a few things that I feel like could go
00:45wrong for the Rockets and just bounce that off of y'all.
00:48Yeah, negativity.
00:49And tell me, well, because I think it's just too easy to focus on the things that could go right.
00:54Because they're just so – they overmatch and overwhelm the Lakers because of the Luka and Austin Reeves injuries so
01:01much that it just almost goes without saying that they're the favorite.
01:05I think the betting community has reflected that.
01:07And I think we would all agree on that, right?
01:09100%.
01:09That they are heavy favorites to win this series.
01:11Right.
01:12So just to make it interesting, let's talk about the things that could go wrong for the Rockets,
01:16the things that I hope that they don't do and don't necessarily suspect that they will but could still see
01:21it.
01:21Sure.
01:21Number one, the turnovers.
01:24Yep.
01:25Right?
01:25Like this is a basketball team that I feel like has done better with it as of late,
01:31but we understand the point guard issues, the passing issues, the decision making, the spacing,
01:40the movement of both the ball and the players off the ball has not always been clean,
01:46has not always been crisp.
01:47And specifically late in games, right, when they double-teamed Kevin Durant, right?
01:52Now, again, they've done a better job with this as of late, but this is where we see the issues
01:58show up for the Rockets.
01:59So I'm looking at turnovers as being the thing that they have to keep in check.
02:03And if they do that, they should be pretty comfortable in this series, but it is something that I'm looking
02:07out for.
02:07You know, it's one of the things Reggie and I were talking about to open the show today.
02:11You know, we're kind of bouncing some Rockets thoughts around, and the Lakers want to play a half-court game
02:16on both sides of the floor.
02:18And, you know, on the defensive side, that could be a big issue.
02:23You know, Durant, we know he's had some turnovers.
02:26Yeah, I think that could be a big, big factor.
02:28It is worth noting, though, for the Lakers, now this is over the entirety of the season, I can pare
02:34this down,
02:34they're middle of the league when it comes to turnovers created, so this isn't something that they do particularly well.
02:40Now, the Rockets are giving turnovers away sometimes.
02:43Yeah, I was going to say, they did it pretty good against the Rockets at Toyota Center several weeks back.
02:48And it is worth noting that over the last 15 games, they've done more of that recently.
02:51So, you know, that is worth noting.
02:53So, yeah, that could possibly be a loss.
02:55I also think, worth noting to that point, is this will be, that will be the other side of the,
03:01hey, no Luka's out there.
03:03Hey, no Austin Reeves is out there.
03:04That means they're going to have to play a lot more Marcus Smart.
03:07Excuse me, they're going to have to play a lot more Marcus Smart.
03:09I can see him playing like 30, 35 minutes.
03:11Absolutely.
03:12And I think that's going to benefit the Rockets in some regards, like on the other end of the floor,
03:18right?
03:18Marcus Smart's not going to be hunting Reed Shepard the way Luka Doncic would, right?
03:22So that's a good thing.
03:23But on the other end of the floor, he is somebody that can muck up the game a little bit.
03:27Somebody that's going to have a lot of attention on Kevin Durant.
03:29But he's going to flop his ass off, too.
03:31Yeah.
03:32Yeah.
03:32So I think, I mean, former defensive player of the year.
03:34So that's somebody to be, I think, concerned about and something to be concerned about when it comes to the
03:38Rockets.
03:38So turnovers is, I would say, number one.
03:41Number two, three-point shooting.
03:44Yeah.
03:44And poor three-point shooting, either in terms of percentage or attempts.
03:50They're actually not that bad in percentage, but they're awful in attempts.
03:55And even sometimes they're bad at both.
03:57Yeah.
03:57They don't take a lot and won't make a lot on their worst nights, right?
04:00So, like, that's obviously the wrong combination, the worst combination.
04:04What was that game not too long ago where a man Thompson goes for 40 and they lose the game,
04:09right?
04:09Because nobody of significance shot threes, and then the other guys around who did shoot threes didn't do it oh
04:16so well.
04:17Yeah.
04:17And I think that to fresh that a little bit further, I think just their shot diet, their shot profile
04:22in general will matter.
04:24Because that not taking a lot of three-pointers thing, it sounds fine if you can get to your spots
04:29and knock down shots.
04:29But also, that allows a defense to, you know, hone in on certain areas of the floor and not have
04:34to get out to the perimeter as well.
04:36You're going to need those three-pointers to help stretch the floor somewhat as well, which allows a man to
04:41be more effective,
04:42which allows Alperin to not have so many guys, you know, closing in on him from weak side and stuff.
04:47I think that that's going to be valuable for them as well.
04:49Yeah.
04:49None of them have been that reliable outside of Reed Shepard.
04:52Right.
04:52You know, it's just been up and down.
04:53Yeah.
04:54And I think it's a good point because what Reggie's talking about speaks to how easy they are to defend
04:59at times.
04:59And a lot of times that is because they don't have the shooting, the spacing that they need.
05:04Or the fact that they're just not going to take as many threes.
05:07So I think that's a big part of this now.
05:10The other side of it is, do you think that the Lakers, are the Lakers likely to out-shoot them
05:16from three without Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves in the game?
05:19And I think that answer is probably no as well.
05:21So this is kind of something to think about.
05:23But when you come down to it, you're still like, man, the Lakers, they're so undermanned.
05:27And the likelihood of them winning a shootout even against the Rockets, as currently constructed, seems to be pretty low.
05:34Of the dudes in the actual rotation, outside of Kevin Durant and Reed Shepard, who do you think are the
05:40best three-point shooters?
05:41I'm looking at the actual stats over the course of the season.
05:44Yeah.
05:44It's probably going to be Josh Okoge, funny enough.
05:48He is 38.5% for Josh Okoge.
05:52I never would have guessed that.
05:53Yeah, so I've looked at these numbers before.
05:56Yeah, so in the Rockets podcast community, we get knee-deep in the weeds.
06:01I feel like I've seen this number before.
06:03But we need that, right?
06:04But to your question, though, I think the...
06:06Aaron Holiday is a little bit better at 39%.
06:09And then the next guy after that is Jabari Smith Jr. at 36%, which is like an okay three-point
06:13shooter.
06:13The reflex reaction would have been to, say, either Jabari or Tari.
06:18And to the point, I think it's going to be key that both of those guys, which actually brings me
06:22to my next where-can-it-go-wrong point.
06:24I'm glad we did that.
06:26One of the key guys outside of the obvious, right?
06:28One of these others, one of these potential X-factors, which I think you can make a case for a
06:32lot of these guys.
06:33Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Reed Shepard, right?
06:38These guys don't show up.
06:40Like, any combination of these guys just...
06:42Oh, well, that's the series.
06:43That was last year, wasn't it?
06:44That's the series.
06:45That was last year's series, wasn't it?
06:46Your others did not do enough in that circumstance.
06:49You're like, hey, Jalen Green, go get his buckets.
06:50And it was nothing.
06:51I think that even with the gift that is no Luka, no Austin Reeves, right?
06:58We're expecting them to win this series, as we've said before.
07:01I think even with that, they cannot afford to not have those guys show up on a night-in-and
07:07-night-out basis.
07:07They cannot be zeros.
07:09Now, do they have to have career nights?
07:11Does the men, Thompson, have to score 40 points?
07:13And he's not even who I'm talking about.
07:14I'm talking about one of these other guys.
07:15Jabari.
07:16On the periphery, right?
07:17Yeah.
07:18It can't be late January Jabari for any stretch, right?
07:22I think that could be debilitating for this team.
07:24So, that to me, outside of the turnovers, the poor three-point shooting, or lack of three-point shooting, maybe
07:32to put it better, if one of these key guys doesn't show up or any combination of them doesn't show
07:37up, I think that's the thing that could go wrong for the Rockets.
07:39Yeah.
07:39I think that that's fair.
07:40In fact, we had talked about it.
07:42I think I had phrased it as, because every playoff series you have, clearly, your superstars need to be the
07:46foundation.
07:47They've got to be here every game.
07:48Otherwise, what are we talking about?
07:50But there's always the others, I guess, in the way that we'll say this.
07:53One of those guys that's capable of having that game that steals a game that you're not supposed to win.
07:57And I felt like Jabari Smith Jr. is that guy in my mind that is capable of having that game
08:02that steals a game.
08:03But I hadn't thought about the counter argument of that is not even just not stealing games, but what if
08:07he just don't show up?
08:08Well, it ties in with my big point where Reggie and I were talking about, again, in the first segment.
08:12I think it's worth bringing up because it ties in.
08:14He said, what do the non-LeBron minutes look like as a potential key to the game?
08:20Which is accurate, but my point is, what do the non-LeBron minutes look like for the Rockets?
08:26Because if you can't take advantage of your bench and some of these guys, whomever it might be coming off
08:32the bench.
08:32Now, we know Jabari is going to be in the rotation and all that, but I'm saying if those guys
08:36can't take advantage of an overmatched bench, then it doesn't have any effect.
08:41It's a great point.
08:42It's a great point.
08:43So, let me ask y'all this to sort of dismount this thing.
08:47Got a key matchup for y'all.
08:48I want to see what y'all think about it.
08:49Ooh, okay.
08:50The coaching matchup.
08:51Oh.
08:53JJ Reddick versus Eme Udo.
08:55Because I think that speaks to your point.
08:56Like, how do you perform in those non-LeBron minutes?
09:00I think it's going to, obviously, you're going to want to hold the players accountable, but how does the coach
09:05manage?
09:06Who does he have out there and what is he trying to get to?
09:09I'll take it a step further.
09:10I think the three times you have two off days is advantage Reddick.
09:16Advantage Reddick.
09:17Rest, strategy, adjustments, all that stuff.
09:21I think the Lakers have the coaching advantage.
09:24Yeah, I think strategically, I wouldn't even bat an eye at the conversation of Reddick being better with the strategy
09:31of it.
09:32And I think when we mentioned it earlier, the idea of just offensively, this offense for the Rockets is more
09:38reading and react, more feel and flow, whereas JJ Reddick will put sets in.
09:41I think that lends more to the schematic advantage.
09:44The thing I was wondering is, who do you think will have a better pulse for the game as well?
09:48Because I think that that's also, sometimes it's not even necessarily a, oh, who has the right play drawn up,
09:53but I know at this point, this person needs to play, right?
09:57I have a good idea of my rotation, or maybe I need a timeout right now to get my guys
10:01back in.
10:01And even then, I don't have a good answer for that either.
10:04Yeah, because JJ Reddick has had his moments, right?
10:06What's that?
10:07He had that one game where he played somebody.
10:10Yeah, the whole damn game.
10:11The whole game.
10:12Yeah, so I think that's going to be a question with both of them.
10:15But to me, it's just interesting to have, to be in a space of, you've got a head coach who
10:20is entrenched and is trusted,
10:23and you feel like you're going into a first-round matchup where a coach, even with lesser experience,
10:29outmatched that you don't have the coaching advantage in this game or in this series.
10:33I think that that is interesting, just kind of on the periphery, like a side element,
10:38even despite the fact that they're probably going to win this series.
10:41Yeah, no, fair enough.
10:42Rockets get going versus the Lakers starting tomorrow, 7.30 p.m. on ABC from the 2A1.
10:50Should have kept Jalen Green.
10:51I very much disagree with that.
10:53And honestly, when the conversation was happening in the offseason, I wasn't as strong.
10:58I've become very strong on that.
10:59And you want to know why?
11:00It's actually playoff-related.
11:01You go into the playoffs, and again, my assertion is your stars have to be stars all the way through.
11:07Or do you have any doubt whatsoever that Kevin Durant will give you what he's supposed to in the series?
11:11I've yet to, and I've heard a lot of people try, I've yet to hear a valid case for that,
11:17of you should have kept Jalen Green.
11:19No, none.
11:20I've yet to hear one.
11:21I've yet to hear a good one.
11:22Kevin Durant is going to be Kevin Durant up and down this series.
11:25If he doesn't, you can come back and laugh at me on the backside, but I bet good money that
11:29Kevin Durant will be Kevin Durant all the way through this series.
11:31You will not lose this series because of Kevin Durant.
11:34Look, Jalen Green?
11:35No.
11:35Yeah, man, that can happen.
11:37I've said this before.
11:38If the exact same situation happens to the Rockets with the injuries and everything like that,
11:42and they just run this thing back and had not done the Kevin Durant trade, they are at best the
11:46Suns right now.
11:48They're not the fifth seed, and I don't know if they're even in a position to be talking about playing
11:52the Lakers this weekend.
11:54Hell, the Suns might not be in the playoff, depending on what happens tonight in the final play in the
11:58game.
11:58That's what I'm saying.
11:58Yeah.
11:59That's what I'm saying.
12:00Yeah.
12:00So, I don't know about that.
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