00:00Today feels like a less crazy day. It feels like markets maybe have calmed down a little bit.
00:05You're certainly seeing a calmer picture emerging. The stock 600 just ticking a little bit higher.
00:09We're up kind of one tank to one percent right now. Media's leading.
00:12You've seen the FTSE 100 underperforming a touch. Basic resources are down.
00:16The utility sector in the UK is down. Apparently, the Chancellor wants to sort of separate out utilities and what
00:22the gas price is doing.
00:22Anyway, lots of things going on, but a more calm session. So let's get a sense of kind of where
00:26we go from here.
00:27Moena Cunningham is joining us to try and give us that sense. A calmer day?
00:32I would say a calmer day. I think there's a lot of uncertainty.
00:37And that's actually been the reigning mood, I think, of the week compared to last week, where we actually had
00:42some sense of optimism.
00:44I think there is still some optimism, but there's very much a wait and see feeling, especially as we head
00:50into the weekend.
00:51And, you know, President Trump has indicated that there is a sort of deal within reach, but that hasn't been
00:58confirmed elsewhere.
00:59I think we've seen this back and forth quite consistently over the last 10 days.
01:05So markets are, I'd say, tentative and cautious.
01:10It has been quite a sort of volatile week, not seeing the extreme swings that we were seeing last month
01:17or even last week.
01:18And it has overall actually been a sort of calmer, slightly nervous, jittery week.
01:23Yes. And we've noticed, Moena, that if you disappoint markets with earnings, that they're not very tolerant of that in
01:30the current environment, given how we've rebuilt appetite for stocks since the start of the war.
01:35Markets are now quite jittery. And if you don't deliver on earnings, they're kind of punished quite severely. Is that
01:40what we've seen so far?
01:41Yes. And we're seeing that this morning from Alstom in France about sort of delayed rolling stock.
01:46But also we're seeing some of the technology companies, which I think we're always particularly sensitive.
01:51So Netflix in the U.S. last night disappointed on forecasts.
01:55We've seen Ericsson disappointing in Europe today.
01:59And that does tend to get punished by the markets.
02:03I think we're really starting to get into the swing of earnings season.
02:07So we will start to also get a sense of how much companies are being impacted by the war in
02:13Iran, how much supply disruption is starting to impact things, higher energy prices, higher commodities prices.
02:21Those sorts of things are going to be starting to come through in forecasts and commentary as well as the
02:26actual earnings themselves.
02:27And, like I said, the market is quite feebrile, I would say.
02:31So it's going to definitely be quite an exciting quarter.
02:33Moana, with a lens on the U.K., how are traders thinking about how the BOE, how are they looking
02:39to balance what we heard from Bailey, who was saying a little bit more dovish this week, versus the political
02:43risk?
02:44Well, I think that the political risk is something that we've sort of had to live with for quite a
02:48while in the U.K.
02:49It does seem to be resurging today.
02:51It's not being reflected enormously in the bond market.
02:54We did see longer data yields rise slightly at the open, but that's largely calmed down now.
02:59And to be honest, there is that slight risk pricing across Europe this morning as well, not seeing huge moves,
03:06and certainly not compared to recent history.
03:09I think wait and see is again there, waiting for more data as to what the Bank of England will
03:13be able to do next.
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