00:00I want to talk about the markets quickly, seeing the reaction from geopolitical issues that we've
00:04been faced with. What does it look like going into midterm elections? How do you think things
00:09are going to be different? It's such a great question. And look, over the last year, the
00:12markets and the economy have looked through policy shocks, be it domestic in nature,
00:17whether it was Liberation Day or whether it was Iran in the Middle East most recently.
00:21We've been saying the market's been treating policy shocks as pop-up ads. And it's been
00:26along the way of this longer winding main story around AI and a resilient consumer.
00:30Let's be intellectually honest. We do think the next pop-up ad is the midterms. And so we think
00:35it probably does cap some of the upside that we've benefited from with this 20% move off the March
00:4130 low. And look, at the end of the day, as we always do amid these political cycles, we'll get
00:47through it and we'll start thinking about opportunities into 27. I love the pop-up ad
00:51reference. I want to quickly mention the Fed with Kevin Warsh. What are you excited
00:56about? What are you concerned about?
00:58Another excellent question. And look, when you talk to Alan Zetner and some of...
01:01Hold on, hold on. She said two excellent questions. I've had none. It's 2-0. Continue,
01:08Mr. Skelly.
01:09You're still on our list. You're still on our radar. So when you talk to Alan Zetner and some of
01:14our
01:14friends in institutional research, Matt Hornback and others, friends of the show, look, we had all,
01:19like the street, been expecting cuts this year. We've been priced out of that. I think what we're most
01:23excited about is in terms of the task forces. How does he really restructure the nature of the Fed
01:29and the communications longer term? And secondly, he did obviously advocate for a bit more hawkish
01:35front on short rates and getting back to 2%. But we all know he also wants to reduce the size
01:40of the
01:40balance sheet. So ultimately, we actually interpret that as somewhat of a wash in terms of a little bit
01:45more dovishness on one end and a little bit more hawkish on the other end.
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