00:00Today on the mound, it's going to be Kyle Freeland, the left-handed pitcher,
00:03going up against Nick Pavetta for the San Diego Padres.
00:06This line, very high overnight, Craig.
00:08Minus 215s, we're now seeing in the marketplace as high as 245
00:11at a few outlets in a total listed at 7.5.
00:15San Diego is thinking, yeah, really nice weather.
00:17Cooler temperature, 67 to start this game.
00:19But how about this, Craig?
00:20Some drizzle and rain possibly expected at the end of the game,
00:23like the apocalypse out there for the Padres.
00:26But there is winds blowing out to right field.
00:28Yeah, that doesn't happen often.
00:30Look, Padres are much better than the Rockies.
00:32Let's also keep in mind the Rockies got swept by Miami the first three games of the season.
00:36They're still 6-9 from that.
00:38So, I mean, if you think about it, they're 6-6 in their last 12 games,
00:42which is way better than what you thought the Rockies would have been.
00:46You know, Nick Pavetta's last season was amazing,
00:49but I don't think that anybody thought that he'd be able to repeat it again.
00:52I mean, he is striking out a lot of batters to start the season.
00:56But, you know, Freeland is one of those guys, Donnie,
00:58that you don't want to see on a Sunday.
01:00You know, soft tossing a little bit, left-handed pitcher.
01:03You know, guys are just kind of swinging to get home.
01:06You know, we'll talk about it a little later in the show.
01:07I think the Rockies have a shot here, man.
01:09Like, I think they have a chance in this game.
01:11I know there's a huge line here.
01:13I think it's going to be a close game.
01:14I don't think Freeland is going to get beat up.
01:17It's not like the Padres are scoring 10-15 runs a game or anything like that.
01:21You know, clearly, every once in a while, you've got to take your shots.
01:24But I think I'm going to take my shot today on the Rocks.
01:29Moniak is playing and playing at a high level for them, which is surprising.
01:32They have this kid, Troy Johnston, who they got from Miami,
01:36who's off to a pretty decent start as well.
01:39And you know that their offense generally is pretty good
01:41as their pitching that is bad.
01:42But Freeland is the one sort of anchor, I think, that can get the job done.
01:46I'm going to keep a close eye on this one today, Donnie.
01:48I think that this, you know, look, every day there's a plus 200 coming in, right?
01:52There's just not a lot.
01:53But every day that there's one or two, maybe for me, this is the one today.
01:56We'll see.
01:57Could get home.
01:58By the way, also, looking at Freeland as a left-handed pitcher,
02:00if you say usually, oh, lefties might struggle a bit with righties,
02:02that hasn't been the case this year for Freeland, Craig.
02:0455 batters he's faced from the right side.
02:06How about a walk rate around 7%, which isn't bad.
02:09But look at the ISO against.
02:10Oh, 61, fantastic.
02:12Weighted on base percentage, 276, great.
02:14Ground ball percentage, 52.6%.
02:16Love to see that.
02:17And also, for a lineup today that might have Jackson Merrill as a lefty
02:20and maybe Cronenworth, that's it.
02:23So you're talking about a lot of lineups here, a lot of lineup
02:25that has those right-handed bats, which Freeland has been very good.
02:28And also, you do talk about Pavetta.
02:30Last year, 739 batters he faced, Craig.
02:33How about a K rate last year of 27%, low walk rate, low ISO,
02:37low weighted on base percentage.
02:38He's sort of doing the same thing this year through 57 batters,
02:41a low ISO and a low weighted on base percentage.
02:43So I look at this and maybe we do get an under,
02:45but it's going to come down to it.
02:46If Freeland can tie up those bats early,
02:48I don't see a lot of runs here.
02:49And maybe, Craig, you could be looking at a big dog price in this game.
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