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US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Tehran, claiming Iranians are 'only alive today to negotiate' and accusing them of 'short-term extortion' via the Strait of Hormuz.
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00:01Breaking news coming in at the top of this hour on India's Day Global, Trump's latest threat to Iran over
00:08the Strait of Hormuz.
00:10U.S. President Trump has said that the Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards other than a
00:16short-term extortion of the world by using international waterways.
00:20The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate. That's President Donald Trump after Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas
00:28Arakshi, said that a ceasefire in Lebanon is non-negotiable.
00:33And that message went to Washington after Vice President J.D. Vance had already taken off for Islamabad.
00:42The talks are scheduled to be held on Saturday. J.D. Vance will be reaching early morning.
00:47The Iranian team led by Arakshi and Ghalibab to reach Islamabad for the talks.
00:55The talks are going to take place, but both sides have hardened their lines.
01:00And now Donald Trump with a new threat that the only reason why Iranians are alive today is because they
01:07wanted to negotiate.
01:09And therefore, the negotiations to take place, a short-term extortion of the world by using international waters.
01:16That's the Strait of Hormuz, is what Donald Trump has said.
01:20He's issued a fresh warning to Iran that they should come to the negotiating table with the intent to negotiate
01:27a peace deal between Iran and the United States of America and Israel.
01:49Can a country pitch itself as a peacemaker while its own defence minister sets the stage on fire?
01:55And while the world is distracted by one crisis, is another power quietly redrawing the map somewhere else?
02:02Tonight, two stories that look separate but are deeply connected.
02:06One is loud, chaotic and self-inflicted.
02:10The other is silent, calculated and strategic.
02:14Pakistan wants to mediate between the United States and Iran.
02:17But one explosive remark by Khwaja Asif raises a simple question.
02:23Can you broker peace when your own words sound like war?
02:27And then, shift your gaze east.
02:30As Washington remains tied up in West Asia, China moves with precision on Taiwan.
02:36No noise, no headlines, just steady political signalling and quiet engagement.
02:41While Pakistan struggles to hold talks together, Beijing is busy shaping outcomes before talks even begin.
02:49One country reacting to crisis, the other using it.
02:54So who holds power in today's world?
02:56The one making the most noise or the one making the smartest moves?
03:01One story of diplomatic damage, the other of strategic timing.
03:05One risks losing control, the other tightens its grip.
03:08Hello and welcome. You're watching Statecraft with me, Geeta Mohan.
03:20At a time when Pakistan claims it is playing peacemaker,
03:24its own defence minister may have just torched its credibility.
03:28Khwaja Asif, the man tasked with safeguarding Pakistan's national security,
03:33has triggered an international storm.
03:34In a now-deleted post on X, Asif called Israel cancerous and went even further.
03:40He wrote, and these are his words,
03:43that those who created Israel should burn in hell.
03:46A shocking statement, not from a fringe voice,
03:49but from a sitting cabinet minister of a nuclear-armed country.
03:53And this comes just as Pakistan positions itself as a neutral mediator
03:58in one of the most volatile conflicts in the world.
04:03The timing could not be worse,
04:05because Islamabad is preparing to host high-stakes talks
04:08between the United States of America and Iran.
04:11But instead of diplomacy, the world is hearing hate.
04:15Israel reacted swiftly.
04:16Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Sarr,
04:18called the remarks blatant anti-Semitic blood libels,
04:22and questioned how any country using such language could act as a mediator.
04:27The Israeli prime minister's office went even further,
04:30calling the statement outrageous and unacceptable
04:33from any government claiming neutrality.
04:35And here lies the contradiction.
04:38Pakistan wants to be seen as a bridge builder,
04:41but its own defence minister is echoing the exact rhetoric used by Iran.
04:47In fact, the language is almost identical to what
04:50the former supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, said years ago,
04:56calling Israel a cancerous tumour that must be eradicated.
05:00So is Pakistan mediating, or is it taking sides?
05:04Even as Pakistan prepares for talks,
05:06the peace process is already unravelling.
05:08Iran has drawn a red line.
05:10No ceasefire in Lebanon, no talks in Islamabad.
05:13But, for now, Vice President J.D. Vance,
05:16along with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff,
05:19are on the way to Pakistan,
05:20as also the Iranian delegation has confirmed its attendance.
05:25But Iran's position is clear.
05:27Until Israel stops bombing Lebanon,
05:29there will be no negotiations with the United States of America.
05:32So that is a hard line.
05:34And the situation on the ground is brutal.
05:38In just one day, Israeli strikes killed over 300 people in Lebanon
05:42and wounded more than 1,000.
05:44Since March, the death toll has surged into the thousands.
05:47But here's where it gets more complicated.
05:50Pakistan and Iran claim that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire agreement.
05:55The United States and Israel say it is not.
05:58Two completely different interpretations of the same deal.
06:01And that disagreement could collapse the entire diplomatic effort.
06:05Even President Donald Trump has expressed frustration,
06:08questioning Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz
06:11and accusing Tehran of not honouring the agreement.
06:15Meanwhile, Israel insists Lebanon is outside the ceasefire framework.
06:20Iran calls that a violation.
06:22And Pakistan caught in the middle,
06:24trying to hold together a deal that is falling apart in real time.
06:28Despite the chaos, Pakistan is pushing ahead.
06:31Islamabad is on lockdown.
06:34The capital has been transformed into a fortress.
06:36Army personnel, paramilitary rangers, roads sealed, a three-kilometre security perimeter.
06:43Even the luxurious Serena hotel expected to host the talks has been cleared of guests.
06:48This is not routine security.
06:50This is crisis mode.
06:52The United States is still coming.
06:54The delegation will be led by Vice President J.D. Vance, as I said.
06:58And Iran, at least officially, for now, is going to be led by Foreign Minister Araqchi
07:04and Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ghalibaf.
07:09Pakistani officials insist the talks will go ahead.
07:13Behind the scenes, Islamabad has been trying to prevent escalation.
07:17Iranian officials admit Pakistan has been quietly intervening,
07:20even stopping Tehran from retaliating after Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
07:25But diplomacy is fragile and credibility is everything.
07:29Which brings us back to the core issue.
07:32How can Pakistan act as a neutral mediator
07:35when its own defence minister is making incendiary remarks?
07:40This is no longer just about one controversial tweet.
07:43It is about Pakistan's global standing,
07:45about whether Islamabad can truly position itself as a diplomatic power
07:50or whether it is undermining itself at the worst possible moment.
07:54Because mediation requires trust, neutrality, credibility, restraint.
08:00And right now, Pakistan is struggling on all three fronts.
08:04Can China protect its $270 billion gamble in West Asia without picking sides?
08:09As conflict escalates,
08:12Beijing is balancing Iran ties with massive Gulf investments.
08:15With projects under threat and workers at risk,
08:18is China a peacemaker or simply protecting its own stakes in a region on edge?
08:23Watch our next report by Harsh Mishra.
08:30China's ambitions in West Asia are facing a major geopolitical test.
08:35With nearly $270 billion invested across the region,
08:40Xi Jinping is now walking a tightrope between supporting Iran
08:44and protecting Beijing's vast economic interests in the Gulf.
08:48Over the past decade, China has dramatically expanded its footprint in West Asia.
08:54Under its Belt and Road Initiative,
08:56Chinese investments and construction projects in the region
08:59have grown faster than anywhere else in the world.
09:02Between 2014 and 2023,
09:06Beijing provided more than twice the financial support compared to the United States,
09:11making it a dominant economic player.
09:13This expansion has been driven by opportunity,
09:16as Gulf nations diversified beyond oil into sectors like clean energy,
09:21infrastructure and tourism.
09:23Chinese companies stepped in.
09:25Today, Chinese firms are building major solar plants and data centers in Saudi Arabia,
09:30while in the UAE,
09:32they are developing the world's largest battery energy storage system.
09:36The UAE has also become one of the biggest global markets for Chinese automobiles.
09:41But this economic success now comes with risk.
09:45The ongoing conflict has already put Chinese investments in the firing line.
09:50At least three Chinese-backed infrastructure assets in Dubai,
09:54Qatar and Oman have been targeted,
09:56while over a dozen more projects worth billions are in high-risk zones.
10:01Thousands of Chinese workers remain in the region,
10:04even as evacuations continue.
10:07This is where Iran angle becomes critical.
10:09China remains one of Iran's key diplomatic partners.
10:13It cannot afford to fully back Tehran at the cost of jeopardizing its broader Gulf interests.
10:20Military means cannot fundamentally solve the problem.
10:23And an escalation of the conflict is not in the interest of any party.
10:28We once again urge the parties concerned to immediately seize military operations,
10:33start the process of peace talks as soon as possible,
10:37resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation.
10:40The root cause of obstruction to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz
10:44is the illegal military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran.
10:50Only through a ceasefire and the achievement of peace and stability in the Gulf region
10:55can the security and smooth operation of international shipping lanes
10:59be fundamentally safeguarded.
11:05Beijing has instead called for de-escalation,
11:08criticizing U.S. and Israeli actions,
11:10while also urging protection of shipping lanes and energy infrastructure.
11:15Ultimately, China's strategy is clear, balance, not confrontation.
11:21As tensions rise, Beijing appears less focused on taking sides
11:25and more on protecting its investments and long-term influence.
11:29Because for China, the West Asia is no longer just about geopolitics.
11:34It's a $270 billion economic gamble it cannot afford to lose.
11:39With Harish Mishra, Bureau Report, India Today Global.
11:46A war broke out in West Asia.
11:48Oil prices went crazy.
11:50America sent its carriers to the Middle East.
11:52And China quietly opened a back door into Taiwan.
11:56That phone in your pocket.
11:58That car in your driveway.
11:59The AI that wrote half the internet this morning.
12:02All of it runs on chips.
12:04Chips made in Taiwan.
12:06An island Beijing just made its boldest play for yet.
12:09But here's what nobody led with.
12:12Taiwan's opposition leader flew to Beijing.
12:15Xi Jinping called reunification a historical inevitability.
12:19The countries that reshape the world don't always fire the first shot.
12:23Sometimes they just wait for everyone else to look away.
12:28Iran gave China that moment.
12:30Did the Iran war just hand Beijing the window it needed
12:34to close the Taiwan question for good?
12:37First, why does China even want Taiwan?
12:40Is this all about chips?
12:42Taiwan produces over 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.
12:47Not just any chips.
12:49The tiny, almost impossibly complex processors that run your phone, your car, your laptop,
12:55AI data centers, missile guidance systems, hospital equipment, everything.
13:01One company, TSMC, sits at the absolute frontier of chip manufacturing,
13:07producing processors so advanced that China's own best chip maker trails it by several generations.
13:14China imports over $500 billion worth of chips every year.
13:19Every single year.
13:21And despite pumping billions into its domestic semiconductor industry,
13:25Beijing cannot close that gap.
13:27Not even close.
13:29So what happens if China controls Taiwan?
13:32It doesn't just gain an island.
13:34It gains the keys to global technology economy.
13:38It can dictate terms to every country that runs on advanced chips,
13:42which, by the way, is every country.
13:44The US, Europe, Japan, South Korea,
13:47all of them would face a chokehold unlike anything the world has ever seen.
13:52Economists estimate the damage from losing Taiwan's chip output would dwarf the COVID pandemic.
13:59We're talking trillions, years of rebuilding, and no quick fix.
14:03Even Elon Musk's new chip facility in Texas will take years before it produces a single advanced processor at scale.
14:12That is not just economic leverage.
14:14That is civilizational leverage.
14:16But here's the thing.
14:18China's claim on Taiwan is older than the semiconductor industry.
14:22It goes back to 1949, when the nationalists lost the Chinese civil war and fled to the island.
14:30The Communist Party has called Taiwan a breakaway province ever since.
14:34For Xi Jinping, reunification isn't a trade strategy.
14:37It's his legacy.
14:39His historic mission.
14:41He tied it directly to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049.
14:47The chips amplify the stakes.
14:50They don't create them.
14:51China wants Taiwan because the CCP's entire legitimacy rests on it.
14:57Losing that narrative is not an option.
14:59Now, did the Iran war create a vulnerability window for Taiwan?
15:03Short answer, yes.
15:06Uncomfortably, yes.
15:07Over the past six weeks, U.S. carrier strike groups and missile defense systems got redirected toward West Asia.
15:14American diplomatic bandwidth got consumed by ceasefire negotiations, Strait of Hormuz panic, and oil prices that shot up 40%
15:23at the pump.
15:24The Pacific got quieter, at least from Washington's end.
15:28Beijing read the room.
15:30China ramped up military activity near Taiwan.
15:3316 PLA aircraft sorties in late March alone.
15:36Naval drills that crossed the median line into Taiwan's air defense zone.
15:41And simultaneously, it extended a political olive branch to Taiwan's opposition.
15:46That combination, military pressure plus political outreach, is not a coincidence.
15:52It is strategy.
15:54The Iran war didn't create China's ambitions.
15:57It just handed Beijing a calendar opening.
16:01And here's the Iran lesson China really took home.
16:04Iran, a far weaker power, blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, choked off one-fifth of global oil supply and watched
16:10Donald Trump blink.
16:12Trump stepped back from his own ultimatum.
16:15Why?
16:15Because gas prices, recession fears, and poll numbers became unbearable.
16:20Now, imagine China blockades Taiwan.
16:23Taiwan makes over a third of the world's microchips.
16:27The economic damage, according to analysts, would dwarf the Iran scenario by trillions.
16:33The U.S. would face the same dilemma.
16:35Fight and bleed or back down and watch.
16:39China now has a working model for exactly how that plays out.
16:42So, why did Xi choose outreach over aggression right now?
16:46Because aggression has a price tag, and outreach is free.
16:51Think of it this way.
16:52If you can get someone to open the door themselves, why break it down?
16:56Taiwan's opposition leader, Cheng Li-Wun, chair of the Kuomintang Party, flew to Beijing on what she called a journey
17:04for peace.
17:05She met Xi at the Great Hall of the People.
17:08She talked about shared heritage, family harmony, and peaceful development.
17:13Warm words, carefully chosen words.
17:15But at the same time, Taiwan's opposition-controlled parliament blocked a $40 billion defense budget.
17:22Money, meaning to fund military procurement linked to the U.S.
17:27So, while Cheng talked peace in Beijing, Taiwan's own defense modernization got frozen back home.
17:34Beijing did not need to fire a single shot to achieve that outcome.
17:39That is not peace.
17:40That is chess.
17:42Xi's outreach also serves a bigger purpose.
17:44A Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for mid-May.
17:48By positioning itself as a mediator in the Iran crisis and as the reasonable party in Taiwan talks,
17:55China walks into that summit with leverage.
17:58It gets to say, look how stable we are.
18:01Look how flexible we are.
18:02Now let's talk about those arms sales to Taipei.
18:06So is peaceful reunification actually a choice or a slowly engineered inevitability?
18:12Xi called it a historical inevitability.
18:15He said the great tide of cross-straight people coming together will not change.
18:20He told Cheng that Taiwan independence is the chief culprit destroying peace
18:25and that China will absolutely not tolerate it.
18:29That is not an invitation.
18:31That is a closing argument.
18:33The peaceful part of peaceful reunification is conditional.
18:37It exists only as long as Taiwan does not cross Beijing's red lines.
18:42No formal independence.
18:43No stepping outside the one-China framework.
18:46Every political engagement, every opposition visit, every blocked defense budget nudges Taiwan
18:53closer to a future where resistance becomes harder and options become fewer.
18:59It is not peace as a destination.
19:00It is peace as a mechanism.
19:02The Iran war did not start China's Taiwan play, but it gave Beijing something valuable.
19:09Distraction, precedent and a blueprint.
19:12The world looked left.
19:14China moved right.
19:15And right now, the question every capital from Washington to Tokyo should answer is,
19:20how long does this window stay open?
19:23Because Beijing already knows the answer.
19:25The information war is heating up alongside the ceasefire negotiations.
19:30After a deadly strike on a girls' school in Minab, President Donald Trump blamed Iran.
19:36Now, Iran's embassy in India has released an AI-generated video presenting its version of events,
19:43turning this into not just a military crisis, but a battle of narratives.
19:48Take a look before you go.
19:49Thank you for watching Statecraft.
19:51Thank you for watching Statecraft.
20:19Thank you for watching Statecraft.
20:27Oh, thank you.
20:39I love my heart
20:41Tell me, what's the truth that I've done with you?
20:50I want to give you the truth to Iran
20:52I want to give you the truth to your heart
21:00I want to give you the truth to your heart
21:07KENGAR SHIISHE YET HATRET CHE KESTE
21:13BE KHABARUM YERUZ MIGIERE ALLE
21:19AYER DORIY TO DELGÄ°R A TAKHE
21:24YERJORI BOOY GOLFY CHE DETO SHAM
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21:59KOLDY ARZU BARAT DASHTEM TO AIN SINEY TEN
22:05BACHBEMEYREM WASSE AUN SOROTO HARFAYE GOSHEM
22:12KENGAR SHIISHE YET HATRET CHE KESTE
22:40KENGAR SHIISHE YET HATRET CHE KESTE
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22:57YET JORI BOOY GOLFY CHE DETO SHAM
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