- 2 months ago
US President Donald Trump criticizes several NATO members for not backing the US and Israel during the Iran war. Transatlantic relations expert Elisabeth Braw on a military alliance under intense pressure from within.
Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00NATO is at breaking point. The most successful defence alliance in history risks losing support
00:07from its biggest backer, the US. And other members have lost trust in the United States,
00:13putting the collective of 32 countries on rocky ground. Their pact to come to each other's aid,
00:19if under attack, is based on trust. And there's very little of that going around right now.
00:25Elizabeth Braw can tell us more about what that means and where we're headed.
00:30She's from the Scowcroft Centre for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council,
00:34an American think tank that promotes US leadership and transatlantic ties.
00:39Elizabeth, since US President Donald Trump's first term, he's complained European nations don't pull their weight.
00:45He said they don't have his back in the Iran war. NATO is undergoing significant pressure to adapt to his
00:53demands.
00:55Is the alliance in for some big changes, do you think?
01:02It's not only in for some big changes. The changes are already happening because, as you said,
01:09the alliance's most important, most powerful member is, in the person of Donald Trump,
01:17questioning the nature of the alliance, the value of the alliance.
01:21And the more President Trump keeps speaking or doubting NATO as an alliance, doubting the other member states' commitment,
01:34then the more he does that, the more he weakens NATO.
01:37And even though the other member states are committed, even though they have no fundamental beef with the alliance,
01:47every time he talks about it, by discrediting it, he weakens it and, by extension, changes NATO as an alliance.
01:57That doesn't mean it's dead or that it's destined to die.
02:02It just means it's weakened.
02:04And that is regretful.
02:08That said, Elizabeth, I think it's interesting then to have a listen to NATO Chief Mark Rotter,
02:13because he's been echoing some of Trump's woes with the group.
02:18So business, as usual, will not meet this moment.
02:22And allow me here to applaud President Trump for his bold leadership and vision.
02:28When it came time to provide the logistical and other support the United States needed in Iran,
02:35some allies were a bit slow, to say the least.
02:39Nearly without exception, allies are doing everything the United States is asking.
02:43They have heard and are responding to President Trump's requests.
02:49NATO is there, of course, to protect the Europeans, but also to protect the United States.
02:54So Trump has managed to change NATO already.
02:59What else does he want from NATO, do you think?
03:06He wants the other allies to do what America needs them to do.
03:12Now, until now, until the Iran war, he hadn't made specific requests.
03:19His initial complaint about the other member states, most of the other member states,
03:26was that they didn't spend enough on their own defense.
03:28And it's interesting to hear how that narrative has evolved over the years from the time of his first administration.
03:36He did have a point that they weren't spending enough on their defense.
03:40But I think already then, it wasn't really clear whether he really wanted them to spend more on their defense
03:49and, as a result, to strengthen NATO or whether it was just something that he wanted to complain about
03:56because he felt America was being taken advantage of.
03:58So it's not clear whether in his first term his objective really was to strengthen NATO
04:05or simply to complain about the other NATO member states.
04:12Not all of them, once again, not all of them were deficient when it comes to spending.
04:18A number of them, including Estonia, for example, were spending the required 2% and even on top of that.
04:25But that was his complaint in the first term.
04:28Now, in the second term, as we know, his narrative has moved from defense spending
04:35to complaining that the other member states haven't supported the United States in Iran.
04:41Now, it's worth remembering that NATO is a defensive alliance that exists to defend its member states
04:48when they are attacked when they are attacked.
04:51What we have in Iran is the United States went to war against Iran.
04:56So it's in that context the aggressor.
05:00So there is no requirement on the other NATO member states to support America.
05:04But he, for reasons that remain inexplicable,
05:10seems to expect other NATO member states to come to America's aid in this war.
05:16But he's been clear about his threats, hasn't he?
05:20I mean, he's been threatening the whole way to pull the US out of NATO.
05:25But what's more likely, the US pulling out or disengaging in some way?
05:33Disengaging, for sure.
05:34If only because leaving NATO would require congressional approval.
05:41And that would be extremely hard to get, even as Congress currently stands,
05:47with Republicans being very loyal to President Trump.
05:54There is enough support for NATO within the Republican Party,
05:58which we should remember has always been the party of strong defense,
06:04of strong transatlantic ties.
06:05There is enough of that left in the Republican Party.
06:08And of course, also among the Democrats,
06:11that a withdrawal from NATO would not be likely in Congress.
06:17So what President Trump can instead do and is probably likely to do
06:24is to have America do less for NATO.
06:30And that would be incredibly damaging.
06:32We should remember that even though he has complained about NATO for a long time,
06:38America has remained involved and did remain involved in his first term.
06:41But now, with him being so upset about Iran and even mentioning Greenland,
06:50essentially mentioning that if you don't support us over Iran,
06:54we may return to the idea of Greenland.
06:59So with that being the case, I think his disappointment or anger
07:05with the other NATO allies will at the very least lead to less US engagement in NATO.
07:12And that is a highly regrettable thing because now, as I think nobody needs to be reminded,
07:20now is a very perilous time in international relations.
07:26And it's a perilous time for every single NATO member state.
07:29And Elizabeth, when you say that would be extremely damaging,
07:33what would that look like in real terms?
07:41So we're at the risk of engaging in hypothetical scenarios.
07:45But let's say, let's just look at what's already happening.
07:49The fact that President Trump discredits NATO on a regular basis,
07:57floats the idea of the United States leaving NATO,
08:00floats the idea of an X in Greenland.
08:03All of that emboldens Russia because what deters Russia is a strong NATO
08:08where everybody, every member is committed to collective defence.
08:12If you don't keep you as NATO and its 32 member states,
08:17if you don't keep constantly signalling that,
08:19then you are signalling the opposite to Russia,
08:23namely that NATO is weakened, that it's divided,
08:26and that provides an opening for Russia should it wish to harm one or more NATO member states.
08:33The other thing I wanted to bring up was that this isn't just about the US,
08:38because other NATO members are losing trust in the US itself as a partner.
08:43Where does that leave the alliance?
08:50It's obvious for, I think, the whole world to see that the United States
08:56has been very dismissive of European countries and Canada.
09:01And that has resulted in the public in European countries and Canada
09:06being, feeling rather hurt and losing faith in the United States.
09:14We have seen, for example, a Danish app called Non-USA
09:19that allows users to see what products are made by companies based in the US
09:28or made by companies that are owned by American companies.
09:31That app has become incredibly popular because Danes are losing,
09:38falling out of love with the United States.
09:41And that is just such a tragedy because the transatlantic link has lasted for decades
09:49through the darkest decades of the Cold War and after that too.
09:54But that bond is under heavy strain now.
09:59And voters here around Europe are saying, well, America is not what it used to be.
10:04And with voters losing faith in that transatlantic bond, politicians obviously have to balance
10:14that on one hand with keeping President Trump happy on the other hand.
10:20But it's regardless which side has more weight at any given moment,
10:30the fact that politicians in European countries and Canada even have to choose
10:34between their electorate and keeping Donald Trump happy is a tragedy and weakens NATO.
10:41But Elizabeth, isn't change sometimes a good thing?
10:45I mean, even the head of the group admits it's time for change.
10:48Have a listen to this.
10:50This alliance is not whistling past the graveyard.
10:54We are in a period of profound change in the transatlantic alliance.
11:00Europe is assuming a greater and fairer share of the task of providing for its conventional defence.
11:06And from that, there will be no going back and nor should there be.
11:11This is a move from unhealthy codependence to a transatlantic alliance grounded in true partnership.
11:17So, is that the solution?
11:19No more codependencies?
11:27Mark Rutter is caught between a rock and a hard place.
11:33He has to keep the alliance together while also keeping Donald Trump happy.
11:38So, when he speaks, that is the dilemma or the conflict that his words reflect.
11:45It is clear that NATO can change, can evolve and so forth.
11:49And we should remember that on the level of civil servants, of the armed forces, NATO still works extremely well.
11:59But all of that is undermined by public pronouncements, by leaders doubting the value of NATO.
12:09And I say leaders in plural, but really it is Donald Trump.
12:14So, what is already happening within NATO is that European countries are assuming more responsibility.
12:22Yes, more senior positions within the military structure are being taken over by Europeans.
12:30And that is a good thing and reflects the reality.
12:35An interesting aspect to consider, though, is the fact that the United States has, for all these years, since NATO
12:43was founded, enjoyed the unchallenged leadership position within NATO.
12:49And, for example, Secure the Supreme Allied Command of Europe has always been an American.
12:55Now, if European countries assume more responsibility, that also means that America won't have that unquestioned, unchallenged leadership role within
13:07NATO, with essentially the United States having the strongest position, the most say.
13:15It will still be a very strong country, but not that unchallenged leader.
13:22And that is a reality that the U.S. would need to get used to.
13:28And it is very, not just very nice, it is indispensable, even if you're a major country, to have a
13:37group of nations that support you, not just militarily, but diplomatically, politically, in different undertakings.
13:44And that is what the United States has received through NATO, if it weakens its commitment to NATO, which is
13:52likely to happen and already beginning to happen, then that support is likely to weaken, too.
13:59Well, Trump's fury with NATO allies is binding them together against him.
14:05Let's have a listen to this soundbite.
14:07Germany is NATO's largest defense spender here in Europe.
14:11Here's the German leader.
14:15We want to ensure that this war, which has become a transatlantic stress test, does not place any further strain
14:22on relations between the United States and its European NATO partners.
14:27Whilst I fully understand the calls for a clear stance, let me say this here and now.
14:31We do not want, I do not want a split in NATO.
14:35NATO is a guarantor of our security, including and above all in Europe.
14:40We must continue to keep a cool head.
14:45And let's listen to what Trump had to say a few days ago.
14:50When I heard the head of Germany say, this is not our war about Iran, I said, well, Ukraine's not
14:59our war.
15:00We helped, but Ukraine's not our war.
15:02I thought it was a very inappropriate statement to make.
15:04So, Mertz just said, cool heads, but he and other NATO allies clearly angered Trump by not supporting his war
15:13against Iran.
15:15Where does that leave us?
15:21In a very difficult place.
15:26Trump confuses two different kinds of war.
15:29So, Ukraine was invaded under the United Nations Charter.
15:34Other UN member states have the responsibility to support Ukraine.
15:39It has nothing to do with NATO.
15:42Now, NATO has stepped in and been part of that group supporting Ukraine.
15:47But it has nothing to do with NATO as such, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
15:52And on that note, it is regrettable that so many countries around the world have declined or refrained from supporting
16:01Ukraine.
16:02It is their obligation under the United Nations Charter, which they have conveniently forgotten or ignored.
16:10Then, when it comes to Iran, it is a war of aggression.
16:13How can NATO member states, or how can NATO, which is a defensive alliance, support a war of aggression?
16:23It doesn't work.
16:24And not only is NATO a defensive alliance, it's an alliance that defends its member states against aggression from other
16:31countries.
16:32So, but all of this has been explained to Donald Trump.
16:36He is just, he chooses not to accept that state of affairs.
16:45And I don't think anybody can explain it to me.
16:48I certainly hope Mark Rutte has explained to him how NATO works.
16:53But it's, he clearly doesn't want to understand or accept how NATO is set up.
17:04And if Mark Rutte can't explain it or isn't willing to explain it, how is anybody else going to explain
17:10it?
17:10Well, I'm sure our viewers are thankful that you could explain it.
17:15Elizabeth, to be fair, though, at the end of the day, could all this pressure from Trump create a stronger
17:21NATO?
17:27Well, I would like to hear from your viewers how it might produce a stronger NATO.
17:31So, I think a stronger NATO is a NATO in which all member states are fully committed to the alliance.
17:40And yes, NATO, like any other organization, has various weak points.
17:45But then you articulate those off camera in candid discussions between leaders, between officials.
17:55And that is what has been done for decades.
17:58You don't wash your dirty laundry in public.
18:02And if you do so, you weaken the alliance.
18:07And there is only one benefit from it.
18:11And that is that Russia and other adversaries sense an opportunity, sense a power growing every time you criticize the
18:20alliance in public.
18:21And that is regrettable because NATO has been incredibly successful.
18:25It has been successful because all its member states have been committed, even in the countries that don't really get
18:31along, like Greece and Turkey.
18:33All of them have been committed.
18:36They haven't always been agreed in private, but in public, they have buried the hatchet and been committed members of
18:44NATO.
18:45It is such, it's incredibly regrettable and such a tragedy that that unity is breaking now that we need it
18:53more than ever.
18:55Elizabeth, thank you so much for spending so much of your night with us.
18:58Hope to talk again soon.
19:03And what do you think?
19:04Will Trump's criticism create a stronger NATO?
19:08Let us know in the comments.
19:09I'm Ben Fasoulin.
19:10See you again soon.
Comments