00:00Dan, how significant is this Israeli signal that the fighting will continue in Lebanon?
00:06It's significant. Sometimes drowned out behind the headlines, the hue and cry of the war in Iran
00:13has been the fact there is a second front to this war. That front is between Israel and Lebanon,
00:18specifically between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. Now, for many Israelis and for many Lebanese,
00:25this is as consequential as the Iran war, the main war, in a different way, but nonetheless consequential.
00:31The Israelis have now committed some five army divisions to that invasion of southern Lebanon
00:37intended to drive back Hezbollah away from their border, away from civilian communities,
00:43to reduce the range of their rockets. And if this Iran deal holds, this Iran ceasefire,
00:50if it involves into a wider ceasefire, maybe even a peace deal, Israelis are unlikely to be satisfied
00:57as long as the situation hasn't materially changed on that border with Lebanon, where the threat is
01:02far more tangible and immediate than the overarching threat for Iran a thousand miles to the east.
01:07So the Israelis are openly saying they're not committed in Lebanon to the ceasefire.
01:12Iran in the past has conditioned any ceasefire on it being held on all fronts.
01:17That's a coded reference to Hezbollah, its ally in Lebanon. The question is whether this Israeli
01:22position is a deal breaker from Iran. I assume it's at least tacitly understood and accepted
01:27by the Trump administration.
01:32Yeah. And indeed, the Pakistani prime minister also seemed to suggest that the ceasefire would
01:36apply to Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister has a different perspective.
01:40When it comes to the ceasefire itself, does the Israeli prime minister, does Benjamin Netanyahu
01:45actually believe that the existential threat from Iran to Israel is actually gone now? Could this lead
01:53to lasting peace? And how is this going to resonate with the public?
01:58Well, Jumana, as with you in Dubai, here in Jerusalem, this announcement by Trump and Iran was received
02:04right in the middle of the night. In addition, in Israel, it's smack in the middle of the last day
02:09of
02:10Passover. That's a Jewish holiday. Customarily, the Israeli civil service, the Israeli government does
02:15not work, doesn't even answer its phones as spokespeople. That has actually given Netanyahu and his
02:21staff and his coalition partners something of reprieve to understand this deal, a deal that's still
02:28emerging. As you noted, it's rather murky when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. The Israeli position to
02:34judge by that rather terse message statement put out in English, four hours after Trump announced
02:40the deal by the Netanyahu administration. His message four hours after the announcement was that
02:46Israel supports this U.S. decision to refrain from firing as long as the Iranians refrain from firing.
02:52It also said that Israel supports U.S. efforts to achieve other elements, other stated aims of this war,
02:59namely a cessation of other threats, steam from Iran. I imagine behind the scenes, the phone lines will
03:06be worked very hotly now to try to understand exactly what the Trump administration has agreed
03:10to, to try to understand the prospects of a compromise deal, something that would be less
03:16than what the Israelis would have hoped for in this very costly and unprecedented war. Keep in mind,
03:22Trump is meant to be here on the 21st of April, Israel's Independence Day, to receive Israel's biggest
03:28prize, the Israel prize. That's a day before the ceasefire is scheduled to end. If he attends,
03:35presumably there'll be much celebration, perhaps not as much as there was when he came last October,
03:39if the Israelis believe that this deal stole short their vital national interests. For now,
03:46there is cautious support. There is reticence. In 12 hours' time when this holiday ends,
03:51we'll probably be hearing a lot more from the Israeli government, the Israeli prime minister,
03:55his coalition partners, and of course, the Israeli populace when it comes to polling as to whether
04:01Israelis think this war was worth it.
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