00:00The Wall Street Journal says Beijing has cordoned off sprawling offshore areas between China, Japan and Korea,
00:06a move that usually precedes military activity.
00:10Airspace alerts have reportedly been issued for waters in the Yellow and East China Seas for 40 days, ending on
00:17May 6.
00:18China typically issues these alerts for shorter periods before conducting major military exercises,
00:24but has offered no explanation in this case.
00:27The restricted areas are hundreds of kilometres north of Taiwan.
00:32Civilian air traffic can still pass through, but will need to coordinate with Chinese authorities.
00:37It comes during a period of rising tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.
00:44For more on what these no-fly zones could mean, our reporter Larry Isiano spoke to Ray Powell,
00:50Executive Director of the Sealight Foundation, an organisation tracking unlawful maritime activity in the region.
00:59What do you think is the intention behind these NODEMs, these restricted areas?
01:02Is it about upcoming military exercises, or is this just signaling to people?
01:07We're all just guessing because they're not telling us.
01:10One very distinct possibility is they're just trying to create a new normal.
01:15They're just trying to create a precedent for having these long periods of restricted airspace that are off their coast,
01:24in international airspace, really a long period of time, 40 days, surface to unlimited, so a lot of space.
01:34And it makes you wonder if they're just trying to condition us all to accept that this is something that
01:39they'll do from time to time and that we should just get used to it.
01:42Can you elaborate a little bit more on what you mean by establishing a new normal?
01:45How does this establish a new normal and what does that mean moving forward?
01:47If China can take certain steps to just sort of normalise kind of a new level of security around its
01:57own East Coast and doesn't have to explain itself,
02:01then when it is escalating, it'll be harder for those countries to figure out, is this real?
02:06Is it something else? Is it an exercise? Is it preparation for an operation?
02:09It also sort of lowers our resistance to future escalations.
02:16Even just a simple demarche, it's a diplomatic note saying that we reject this kind of ambiguous airspace restriction that,
02:30without any kind of obvious cause, this seems like an escalatory event.
02:37But, you know, something to that effect, just to let China know that we notice and we don't like it.
02:43If you just sort of let it pass unremarked upon, then, again, then the next time they do it, maybe
02:50even a little more.
02:51What do you think motivated China to make this decision right now?
02:54Is this about the U.S.-Philippines joint military exercise coming up at the end of the month?
02:58Is this about tension with Japan? Or is this about something else?
03:02I don't think I'd go that far just because the timing is, yeah, I mean, it's sort of interesting.
03:07But it's not it's not a clear overlap.
03:09It will be very interesting to see how China reacts to Balakatan this year, as it is every year.
03:14A lot of it is signaling.
03:15And it's also establishing the idea that we, Beijing, have control.
03:22This is our sphere of influence.
03:25And we are going to control what happens here.
03:27And you see these things happen, for example, with the tightening of the Coast Guard patrols around Taiwan, for example,
03:35or the increase in maritime militia numbers or the recent lining up of all those fishing boats off the coast.
03:43These things all just sort of set a precedent that when it's within China's sphere of influence, they're going to
03:51do these things.
03:54That's the Sea Light Foundation's Ray Powell.
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