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00:00Hello everyone, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shakil. As the war in West Asia escalates,
00:05India feels the heat. But amidst the crisis, the Modi government chaired an all-party meet today.
00:12In the meeting that lasted for one hour and 45 minutes, the government assured all parties
00:17that India's energy security remains stable and additional shipments are on the way,
00:24which will arrive within a week. But it's not the government's statement on the war that has
00:29grabbed eyeballs, but its statement on the rogue nation and the neighbour, Pakistan,
00:34that's eyeing the big mediator role. Sources have told India today that External Affairs Minister
00:41Dr. S. Jai Shankar during the meet made it clear that India cannot act as a broker nation,
00:47quote unquote, like Pakistan. This after the opposition raised concerns over Pakistan's role,
00:53or should I say alleged role, in mediating talks between the United States, Israel and Iran.
00:59To know what all happened today in this very crucial meeting, which was chaired by Defence
01:02Minister Rajnath Singh, take a look at this report.
01:12War in West Asia and India is feeling the heat.
01:16Amid concerns over LPG and fuel supplies, the Modi government convened an all-party meeting
01:22to assess the situation.
01:25Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the meeting and sought to allay fears,
01:29stating that India has adequate energy security.
01:34Sources say External Affairs Minister S. Jai Shankar briefed leaders on the PM's recent conversation
01:39with Donald Trump, underlining that India has pushed for an immediate end to the conflict,
01:44as it is impacting the entire region.
01:48On the question of Pakistan's possible mediation between Iran and the United States,
01:53Jai Shankar made India's position clear, that India cannot be a Dalal nation.
01:58The government also indicated that such back-channel dynamics are not new,
02:03suggesting that America has, for decades, engaged Pakistan in maintaining communication channels with Iran.
02:10On the energy front, the government reassured all parties that supply lines remain intact.
02:16At least four LPG-laden ships are expected to reach India via the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
02:23The government is not new, it is a private issue.
02:53During the meeting, opposition leaders questioned the reasons behind the U.S. and Israel's strikes on Iran.
02:59The Foreign Secretary responded that the attacks were linked to Iran's nuclear activities.
03:05However, the opposition is now demanding a detailed discussion in Parliament,
03:09with some leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the government's responses.
03:51Notably, the TNC skipped the meeting. As more details emerge, one thing is clear.
03:56India is speaking in a firm, decisive voice, setting its terms as the West Asia conflict intensifies.
04:05Bureau Report, India Today.
04:26has drawn the red line by issuing its own sets of demands.
04:30What are votes these stakeholders saying?
04:34And will this war see an end, or is this just posturing before another escalation?
04:39Before I bring in my guest, take a look at this report.
04:54On day 26 of the war, talks have taken centre stage.
04:58According to the Western media, the Trump administration has formally sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan via Pakistan.
05:06Remember, Pakistan is eyeing the key mediator role amid the war on Iran.
05:10The US proposal seeks major concessions from Iran.
05:15America's core demands include complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear weapons infra.
05:20Complete and permanent halt to all uranium enrichment inside Tehran.
05:25Commitment to never pursue nuclear ambitions.
05:28Decommissioning of nuclear hubs in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
05:32Abandoning all proxies of Iran and stopping their financing.
05:36Opening the Strait of Hormuz as free maritime zone.
05:40The list of demands also includes limiting Iran's missile arsenal.
05:47The framework largely mirrors a 2025 proposal that Iran had rejected earlier.
05:53Raising doubts over any real breakthrough.
05:56Meanwhile, in a cryptic post, Donald Trump has praised Iran.
05:59Calling the payoff a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.
06:04What it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people.
06:07Because, you know, you don't know.
06:08Because the leadership was killed, all gone.
06:12Khomeini, all gone.
06:13As the expression goes, the past Supreme Leader.
06:17And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up, at a minimum, racked up pretty good.
06:23They gave us a present.
06:25And the president arrived today.
06:28And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.
06:32The air campaign that we've conducted, that Israel's conducted alongside us, was one for the history books.
06:37Truly.
06:37And it's because we have a president of the United States that when he sends his warfighters out to fight,
06:42he unties their hands to actually go out and close with and destroy the enemy as viciously as possible from
06:48moment one.
06:49In response, Iran has reportedly laid down its own sweeping conditions.
06:55Tehran has demanded immediate ceasefire and right to nuclear power and missile program.
07:00It is also demanding an immediate ceasefire before any talks.
07:05Full recognition of Iran's autonomy and an end to regime change efforts.
07:09It has also sought compensation for war damages and binding security guarantees.
07:16Despite talk of a pause, signs of escalation persist in West Asia.
07:21Donald Trump appears to be pursuing a dual strategy.
07:24Dialogue on one side, escalation on the other.
07:29The US is boosting its military presence with additional naval and troop deployments.
07:34Signalling readiness for a prolonged conflict.
07:37Reports suggest up to 3,000 troops may be deployed.
07:42In response, Iran has issued a direct warning.
07:45Saying it is closely monitoring the US buildup.
07:49Tehran has also cautioned that Washington could become a victim of Benjamin Netanyahu's decisions.
07:54Retirating its claim that the US is acting at Israel's behest.
07:59So what's actually happening on the dialogue front?
08:03What does the US want and what are Tehran's red lines?
08:08So far, there is no clarity.
08:11Bureau Report, India Today.
08:16I'm going to go to Riyadh from where Dr. John Esfakyanakis, who is the Chief Economist at the Gulf Research
08:24Centre, is joining me live.
08:26He's also a fellow at the Chatham House in London.
08:30Thank you so much for your time.
08:31From your vantage point, tracking Gulf macro-fiscal dynamics and oil policy, how do you interpret Washington's dual-track strategy
08:42of military deployment combined with diplomatic signaling?
08:47Does this approach primarily aim to underwrite a negotiated outcome that preserves energy?
08:59Well, it tries to preserve energy, but also it tries to preserve US credibility standing in the world economy and
09:09also in the Gulf countries and the wider Asia economic landscape.
09:14Remember that negotiations, as you've said quite rightly, are in parallel to the deployment of troops, in parallel to also
09:27the possibility of using special forces to open up the Straits of Hormuz.
09:33This has happened in the past.
09:36Remember, this war has started whilst negotiations were taking place in Oman, and all of a sudden, that night of
09:46the 28th of February, the attacks began.
09:49Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets buying the calm or quietly pricing in escalation across oil equities and also capital flows in
10:00the Gulf?
10:04Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets are markets are buying the calm or quietly pricing in escalation across oil equities and capital
10:25flows in the Gulf countries, in the Gulf countries, in the Gulf countries, in the Gulf countries, in the Gulf
10:31countries, in the Gulf countries.
10:31Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets could change very quickly.
10:34Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets could change very quickly.
10:34If they hear that the negotiations are not going anywhere, then that could very well change within a minute or
10:41two.
10:42You're joining me from Riyadh in Saudi Arabia.
10:45How should this be seen from the context of economies of Saudi, UAE and Dubai?
10:55I think that what we have seen with the Gulf economies is that there is resilience.
11:02No doubt the war has impacted them because they're sitting in the middle, being attacked for no real reason, other
11:10than what we hear from the Iranian side, that because they have bases, the US, America has bases in many
11:18of these countries, we will hit the Gulf countries.
11:21The Gulf countries have never been an aggressor.
11:24So there is no justification for this.
11:27But having said this, the Gulf economies are sitting in a pool of wealth.
11:33They're sitting on more than $5 trillion worth of sovereign investments around the world.
11:40And they have been far more resilient today than 20, 30 years ago.
11:46So I'm very optimistic.
11:49However, the short term effect is that these economies are impacted.
11:53Remember, they're exporting oil and natural gas.
11:57A lot of it goes to India.
11:59That impacts their revenue base.
12:02But they are standing from a very positive platform, a pool of money that they can deploy.
12:08The Gulf countries and the Gulf economies will not remain the same as we know and knew them prior to
12:16the war.
12:16They're going to be far more self-reliant.
12:19They will build the local economies and localization.
12:22And they're going to take this crisis, this war, as a lesson for them to be far more diversified within
12:31the geographical mix and also to look at India as a point of relationship and link of strategic nature coming
12:41into the future.
12:42We'll talk about India in just a bit.
12:44But since you're talking about resilience on the state of Hormuz, let's talk about that.
12:50In a prolonged standoff, who has the stronger economic hand?
12:55Iran's disruption threat or the Gulf's resilience and also diversification?
13:03I think that the Gulf is going to withstand all this quite well.
13:08And if you look at Iran, Iran from a strategic standpoint has been majorly impacted.
13:15We have seen that most of their infrastructure has been affected, water, oil, electricity.
13:24And if the war continues, Iran will look very different and far, far more impacted than any other Gulf nation.
13:34Having said that, yes, they can unleash missiles and rockets to the Gulf countries, but the Gulf countries have more
13:42depth and more wealth than Iran.
13:44Remember also that Iran is functioning from many years of sanctions and they too need the oil revenue.
13:53They too need to be part of a global economy.
13:57Yes, they have links with China and India.
13:59Yes, they can export today oil from the Straits of Hormuz to India, to China.
14:05But notwithstanding that, the localization efforts of the Iranians have not been that great.
14:11The local economy, the Iranian economy has been suffering from huge inflation, huge currency weakness.
14:19And we all know that when you have inflation and currency weakness, that doesn't last for too long in terms
14:27of the negative effects.
14:28And your people are majorly impacted.
14:31So, I don't think over the long term Iran can withstand this.
14:35Okay, are Gulf and international markets potentially underpricing the tail risks to tourism, foreign investment and also business confidence?
14:44And those who may be planning in the GCC, the overall macro fiscal?
14:51No doubt.
14:53Nobody can deny that Iran has shown its strength, its teeth.
14:58And for that reason, there has to be a negotiated settlement.
15:01And for that reason, the US today has shared a 15 point agreement.
15:06And there has to be some kind of reconciliation for the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.
15:12There is no doubt in mind that the battle might have been won by the US, but the war on
15:20the strategic side has been lost.
15:23And we need to see at the global repercussions that this is creating for everyone.
15:29And certainly, the Straits of Hormuz show to everybody how important it is for global trade, and also how important
15:38energy is.
15:39Because we've taken out from the global energy market, 20% of oil and natural gas, and for India and
15:48for China, as well as South Korea and Japan.
15:50This is a lifeline. This oil that has been lost cannot be easily replaced.
15:57There is no oil.
15:58And despite the drastic measures that the world has taken to release strategic reserves from the US, from the IEA,
16:07from other countries, it is still not enough.
16:09If this war continues, oil is going to rise, and oil will remain high for a very long time, because
16:18we have to replenish that oil.
16:21So oil at 60, I think, is an impossibility if this war continues. Oil at $60 a barrel.
16:29We might not see it for a very long time.
16:31Since you speak about India, and India has managed to ensure that some of its ships, naval ships, are able
16:37to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that certainly is a big diplomatic victory for India.
16:45Can India then place the peacemaker, particularly because of its human capital in Gulf?
16:53You're very well said in the point that the human capital in India has been providing strategic human capital throughout
17:02the Gulf, and that will continue, and it's very important.
17:04I might say that the interlocutors could be India, possibly, but there are others, like Oman, there are others who
17:13have been doing that for quite some time.
17:16But India is a very important bridge, and it could be seen as an element of neutrality that brings the
17:24two parties.
17:24So far, I think that India has played it very well, and it played its cards very well in order
17:32to promote Indian interests, but also as a strategic bridge of trade and advice for the entire Gulf population.
17:41Is there a real risk that this military buildup is, in fact, laying the groundwork for a limited or full
17:49-scale ground operation?
17:51Or is this primarily signaling to force Iran into concessions at the negotiating table?
17:57Of course, I'm talking about the proposal which has been sent by Donald Trump.
18:03Well, I think that one cannot deny that this is a tactic that we have seen in the past,
18:09and there is an element of taco for President Trump to chicken out, and that is a possibility.
18:17But at the same time, we have seen that the American side, President Trump, does work in parallel environments and
18:26scenarios.
18:26So it could be that today he's presenting the 15-point plan for negotiations,
18:33and it could be that in parallel they're going to deploy special forces troops for a limited boots-on-the
18:42-ground campaign.
18:43And it could be done in the following way.
18:46It could be that come Friday, Saturday, there is no response from the Iranian side.
18:52President Trump in America says, well, I've offered them something and nothing has eventuated,
18:58so I'm going to deploy forces because I have to open the Straits of Hormuz, and I'm going to take
19:04action.
19:04And action begins over the weekend, and then we come back on Monday,
19:08because the weekend is the preferred option for heightened activity because markets are shut.
19:15So we will see the effect on Monday, oil spikes, it goes from 89 WTI or 98 Brent to 130
19:25and 40,
19:26and then we continue far more in that limelight rather than negotiating.
19:33And then we go back.
19:35Remember also that we are in a prison's dilemma in many ways.
19:39You need to escalate in order to negotiate.
19:43And it could be that this is one tactic where President Trump is using to negotiate.
19:49Yet we hear that the Iranians are not so welcoming on the negotiating table.
19:55I think the next two days are very crucial.
19:57But as you said, it could be a tactic to enforce greater escalatory power on the ground.
20:05Okay, that brings me to my last question on the show tonight.
20:07Is energy security the real battlefield here?
20:10Because it's the price of the oil which is deciding the trajectory and the direction of this war?
20:18Definitely. Energy security is at the crux of the matter.
20:22Because once the Straits were shut, immediately markets reacted.
20:27Before, during the initial campaign, the impact on the global economy was far less observable.
20:36Markets, yes, got impacted. Oil went up.
20:39But oil didn't spike to 120.
20:43And that was an issue.
20:44And today, we're seeing that energy and trade flows play a crucial part for all of this.
20:51India would not be asking questions, where is my oil?
20:54Where am I buying oil?
20:56And luckily, India has an excellent relationship with Russia, and they're able to get Russian oil today, which was unsanctioned.
21:05So another great beneficiary is Russia today.
21:09Russia today is benefiting into the tune of $250 million.
21:13They're selling a lot of their oil to India and other Asian countries, but predominantly India.
21:21So at the crux, at the center of all this, is yet again energy.
21:25We are not so delinked from energy.
21:29We're still dependent on energy, and the Gulf is important for that, as well as Russia and other hydrocarbon-producing
21:38countries.
21:38All right, Dr. John Esfair Kyanakis joining us there from Riyadh.
21:44Thank you so much for sharing your views.
21:46We are putting out that interview on our website and also on the YouTube channel.
21:51Of course, tomorrow will be another day in this war, which has now entered day 24.
21:57Thanks so much for watching.
21:59We'll track the story very, very close.
22:00Bye.
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