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00:03From the most trusted journalists at Comedy Central, it's America's only source for news.
00:10This is The Daily Show with your host, Jon Stewart.
00:25Hi, everybody!
00:37Hey, everybody!
00:40Welcome to The Daily Show. My name is Jon Stewart.
00:43Man, we've got a show for tonight. I know that's it, but we've got a great show for you tonight.
00:46Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is going to be here tonight.
00:52And like all people with a nuanced understanding of the complex geopolitics of the Middle East,
00:58he's not working in government anymore.
01:01He has a podcast.
01:05He's in the manosphere.
01:08But before we get to all that, ladies and gentlemen...
01:15I hope you had a pleasant weekend.
01:18And got some rest.
01:19Because the dizzy and chaotic carnival ride that is Donald Trump's America continues to careen down Shitshow Hill.
01:27It's f***ing madness out there.
01:30TSA lines longer than your actual trip.
01:34Escalating threats in the Middle East.
01:36Planes driving into trucks.
01:39The only thing giving me joy is looking forward to this season of The Bachelorette.
01:45I mean, they've got a strong Mormon woman.
01:50She seems lovely.
01:51I hope that she finds love.
01:53Hold on a second. I'm getting a call.
01:56No!
02:00But luckily, in everything that is going wrong in our country, our intrepid leader is utterly unbothered.
02:08The world disintegrates around him, largely due to his actions.
02:14Yet he still managed to spend the weekend golfing a couple of times and partying at Mar-a-Lago.
02:21I didn't know I was going to be here today.
02:27I am supposed to be prosecuting a war.
02:38You know, I really think that the less fun we're all having, the better he seems to be doing.
02:47Does he run on our misery?
02:50Does that make him stronger?
02:52Now, to be fair, that was the weekend.
02:55Obviously, today is Monday, the only day of the work week.
03:08It's time to focus and get down to the sobering business of wrapping up this war.
03:13President Trump now arriving at Graceland for a bit of a detour on his stop.
03:18Elvis had two eighth-degree black belts in karate.
03:21One was in Kenpo, and that's what this match is for.
03:22Was he really good, or was it just...
03:24Actually, he was really good.
03:25He started practicing...
03:25Could I have taken him in a fight?
03:34Which Elvis are we talking about?
03:371950s Elvis?
03:38No.
03:401970s Elvis?
03:42Still no.
03:44It's unbelievable how disconnected Donald Trump is from the chaos that he himself is
03:48causing the American people.
03:49But I'm glad you could have a nice time golfing and visiting Graceland while we're all freaking
03:55the f*** out.
03:56President Trump issues a deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz by Monday night, where he
04:01says he'll, quote, obliterate Iranian power plants.
04:03Iran isn't blinking, saying if power plants are attacked, Iran will target the power plants
04:09of regional countries.
04:10This escalates every day with no end in sight.
04:13The countdown ticks towards Monday night.
04:16Oh, Monday.
04:17We've got plenty of time to...
04:19Wait!
04:23If I'm here, that must mean...
04:28But lo and behold, today Trump removed the sword of Donald Cleese that he himself had
04:35hung over our heads.
04:37The president, just posting moments ago, he has now decided to, quote, postpone any and
04:41all military strikes on Iranian power plants.
04:44The president claiming the U.S. has been negotiating with Iran over the weekend, calling them in-depth,
04:49detailed, and constructive conversations.
04:51Oh, well, I guess we're all going to be have a little less action and a little more conversation.
05:11That's right.
05:13Boys, two, three, four.
05:15A little less conversation.
05:20That's all we get due to budget constraints, unfortunately.
05:24But you know what?
05:24Take a step back.
05:26You know, it's a good news story.
05:28It's a sigh of relief for everybody.
05:30It's progress.
05:31And we've got to celebrate the wins.
05:34You know, in this world.
05:35It's like our friend Punch.
05:36You remember our friend Punch.
05:39Yeah, I agree.
05:42We've brought Punch up previously.
05:43Well, good news.
05:44Does Punch the monkey have a girlfriend?
05:47Punch has been spotted canoodling with a female monkey.
05:51There they are, hugging and kissing and affectionately playing with each other.
05:57Fantastic.
05:59It's really nice.
06:00Although, um, hey, listen, girl, straight talk.
06:06I know what you're thinking, but, girl, you can't fix him.
06:15Just...
06:21Punch, seriously, if you're watching, I am happy for you.
06:24But, little advice.
06:26Prenup!
06:28You're a famous guy now, and you don't want to end up splitting your fortune in half.
06:38I guess that's not quite half.
06:46But back to escalating...
06:48Oh, God, do I really have to...
07:00But back to Iran.
07:02Escalating tensions in the Middle East.
07:04I must applaud the president for stepping back from the cliff of escalation
07:08and engaging Iran in productive talks.
07:11Iran has responded at state media saying there are no talks.
07:22Well, now, we're in the uncomfortable position of who to believe.
07:33Normally, in this situation, I think we'd all be inclined to, in some measure,
07:40not trust the pronouncements coming from this theocratic and corrupt regime.
07:45Iran.
07:47Talking about Iran.
07:49For clarity, I just want to...
07:52Iran.
07:53We'd be inclined not to trust Iran.
07:57So, let's give our president the benefit of the doubt and just probe a little deeper.
08:02Sir, you say we're having talks with Iran.
08:06Who did you talk to?
08:08A top person.
08:15A top person.
08:17Or the top person.
08:21The article really makes a huge difference here.
08:25Like, the guy?
08:27Or some f***ing guy?
08:30Uh, you know, it's a little tough.
08:32They've wiped out...
08:33We've wiped out everybody.
08:37So, a lower-level guy who's been elevated to a higher echelon,
08:45a bottom who is now a top, uh...
08:49Versatile.
08:50But, but not...
08:54Not...
08:55Stop it.
08:59Or I will rip your stuffed monkey...
09:02...in f***ing half.
09:08So, you're talking to a guy, but not the top guy.
09:12Not the supreme leader.
09:14No, not the supreme leader.
09:16But the people that seem to be running it.
09:18Again.
09:21Running it?
09:22Or seem to be running it?
09:25It's a big difference.
09:27Hey, where's our car?
09:29Oh, I gave it to the guy who seems to be the valet.
09:35He had a jacket, standing by the curb.
09:37Seemed like a top guy.
09:39And he did take the car.
09:47What made you think he was the top guy when you had the talks with him?
09:52Mr. Whitcoff and Mr. Kushner had them.
09:56So, you didn't even talk to them.
09:58Your guys, who quite frankly don't seem like top guys, talk to their seemingly somewhat top guy.
10:07Are Jared and Steve sure this is even a real person that they're talking to?
10:13Out of curiosity, did the top Iranian guy ever ask for their social security numbers?
10:21Or target gift cards?
10:24Is their top guy's name by any chance Ali Baba Booey?
10:30Because it's sounding like bullshit.
10:34Maybe if you walk us through the details, it'll feel more real.
10:39You said there's many points of agreement with Iran right now.
10:41Many.
10:41What? Can you give us a...
10:43Many. Like 15 points.
10:4515 points.
10:47Like 15?
10:50Or 15?
10:52God damn it!
10:53Why do we f***ing have to do this?
10:56What are we doing?
11:11Well, well, well.
11:12Looks like the creatine is working.
11:19I only eat meats and ferments.
11:23Seriously, like 15 or 15?
11:26Just f***ing...
11:27Just keep going.
11:28What's the first point?
11:30Well, they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.
11:31That's number one.
11:33That's number one, two, and three.
11:35It's...
11:39I want to believe this is real,
11:41but there's no way that your 15-point agreement,
11:45one, two, and three are no nuclear...
11:47First of all, that makes it a 13-point agreement.
11:49Just right off the bat.
11:51And there's no way you went to Iran
11:53and were like, all right, first point,
11:54no nuclear weapons.
11:55And point number two, same.
11:59Point number three, see, point number two.
12:03That's what we're supposed to believe.
12:05They will never have a nuclear weapon.
12:08They've agreed to that.
12:10Look.
12:13Donald Trump is, without a doubt,
12:15one of the most prodigious liars
12:16this country has ever produced.
12:18He's our supreme misleader.
12:21But the chaos this very actual war is creating
12:26is making us question even his reality-distorting powers.
12:31Let's step back into the Wayback Machine.
12:34All the way back, I don't know, June,
12:36when Israel and the United States
12:39first bombed Iran's nuclear program.
12:42We wiped out the nuclear capability of Iran,
12:45obliterated it.
12:46It was obliterated like nobody's ever seen before.
12:49I would say it's set back permanently.
12:51That place is under rock.
12:53That place is demolished.
12:54They're never going to have nuclear.
12:57Never permanently obliterated.
13:01I'm sorry, Caitlin Collins, you have a question.
13:03You obliterated their nuclear sites last summer
13:06with your strikes.
13:07Then how can you argue it was an imminent threat now?
13:10Oh, we hit them so hard, we obliterated them.
13:13But that doesn't mean with the right equipment,
13:16you can't dig down and go get it.
13:18Actually, I think it's exactly what it means.
13:26That's what it means.
13:27God damn it.
13:30It's so annoying.
13:32It's so unbelievably annoying.
13:36Here we go.
13:41To obliterate, to destroy completely,
13:45leaving nothing behind.
13:49There's nothing in here about,
13:50well, we completely obliterated it,
13:52unless they have shovels.
13:58By the way, nuclear question aside,
14:01are they even opening the Strait of Hormuz?
14:03Isn't that what prompted your apocalyptic ultimatum
14:05in the first place?
14:06That'll be opened very soon, if this works.
14:09How soon?
14:10And who's in control of it?
14:11Will Iran still be able to control the flow of oil?
14:14Be jointly controlled.
14:16By who?
14:17Maybe me.
14:19Maybe me.
14:21Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is.
14:24Whoa!
14:26Coming soon.
14:29From Skydance, Paramount Brothers, Amazon Comcast.
14:34Two bitter enemies put aside their differences.
14:39And learn...
14:42And learn that oil's fair and love and war
14:47will opening a Strait
14:49open their hearts.
14:53Premieres on Paramount Plus Plus Minus Divided By.
14:59And has already been canceled.
15:03Jesus.
15:05What the...
15:06Oh, maybe I'll run it with the Ayatollah,
15:09like two bridge trolls.
15:12Whoever wants to take oil to sea
15:14must answer me these riddles three.
15:18I hate...
15:19I hate...
15:20Here's what I hate.
15:21I hate how these questions of great importance
15:24and consequence to our country
15:27he handles with such shitty glibness.
15:30Maybe I'll run it.
15:31Aren't I, a little stinker?
15:35I bombed Iran.
15:36Can't you just eat me up with a spoon?
15:40Meanwhile, here in America,
15:41we don't even need a war
15:43to degrade our own infrastructure.
15:45Our airports are collapsing all by themselves.
15:49The Fox News alert.
15:50Chaos erupting at America's airports.
15:52This line in Atlanta
15:53showing people lined up around midnight
15:55for flights leaving this morning.
15:57I've been here almost two hours.
15:59Three and a half hours to do that.
16:00We might not make it.
16:01My flight is boarding right now.
16:03Oh, no.
16:17Way ahead of you, kid.
16:20Oh, no.
16:22That should be the left's new
16:24don't tread on me flag.
16:26Oh, no.
16:30American travelers are so stressed out
16:33what incredibly uncontroversial
16:35American enforcement agency
16:36could we deploy to...
16:39Oh, you're way ahead of me.
16:42I believe the audience in mass
16:44just went, oh, no.
16:47What agency could we deploy
16:49to our airports
16:50to ease passengers' journey?
16:52This morning, the Trump administration
16:53is now deploying ICE agents
16:56to help TSA officers...
17:04We're sending in ICE agents
17:07to calm the situation.
17:09It makes perfect sense.
17:11It's kind of like the way
17:12we calm our dogs
17:14during thunderstorms
17:15with a blanket of fireworks.
17:23You're okay, Rusty.
17:26Oh, no.
17:31Not to worry.
17:32Our incredibly competent government
17:33knows exactly how these ICE agents
17:35can help alleviate
17:36these incredibly long TSA lines, right?
17:38Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
17:40We have ICE agents
17:41who are trained
17:42and can provide assistance to agents.
17:45They run those same type
17:46of security machines
17:47at the southern border.
17:48Oh, great.
17:49Well, that'll be really helpful
17:50if it's true.
17:51Is it true?
17:52Guy in charge of ICE?
17:54ICE isn't trained on X-rays.
17:56And look at X-rays,
17:57see if there's, you know,
17:58something dangerous in that luggage.
18:00Well, no kidding.
18:01We're not going to be doing that.
18:05ICE isn't trained on X-rays.
18:07No surprise.
18:07They don't really seem
18:09to be trained on anything, actually.
18:11And by the way,
18:12who the f***...
18:15Honestly...
18:19Who the f***
18:21even thought
18:23it was a good idea
18:24to send America's
18:24most hair-trigger agency
18:25into America's
18:27most hair-raising environment?
18:29This idea was, uh,
18:30with ICE in the airport.
18:31That was mine.
18:40What in God's name
18:42possessed you to do that?
18:44That was like the paperclip.
18:45You know the story
18:46of the paperclip?
18:52How many more years
18:56of this s*** are...
18:59Go ahead.
19:01182 years ago,
19:02a man discovered
19:03the paperclip.
19:05It was so simple.
19:06And everybody that looked at it
19:08would say,
19:08why didn't I think of that?
19:10Uh, ICE was my idea.
19:12Yeah.
19:16Right now and around,
19:18they're going,
19:19are we talking
19:20to a top guy?
19:24Because I don't think...
19:26I don't think
19:26this is a top guy.
19:28Yeah, we were talking
19:29about negotiating,
19:31uh, nuclear,
19:32and then he just went off
19:33on f***ing paperclips.
19:35Why did I bomb Iran?
19:36Well, uh,
19:37do you know the story
19:38of 2,000 flushes blue?
19:41LAUGHTER
19:45Well, for centuries,
19:46people s*** in regular water.
19:48And then one day,
19:50a guy said,
19:50what if it was blue?
19:52And that's why
19:53I bombed Iran.
19:55It's so f***ing stupid.
19:58Meanwhile,
19:59the rest of us
20:00suffer under
20:01Donald Trump's
20:02attention deficit style
20:03of government by whim.
20:05And as America,
20:07and really the world,
20:09has to helplessly
20:11navigate the turbulence
20:12that Trump causes,
20:14his administration
20:16a shit-you-not
20:17this weekend
20:18had a message
20:19for all those
20:20who were suffering.
20:21I think that
20:22given what has been done
20:23to President Trump
20:24and his family,
20:25it is impossible
20:26for either of us
20:28to understand
20:29what he has been through.
20:30We should all have
20:31a little empathy
20:32for what has been done
20:33to him and his family.
20:35I think we have to offer
20:35the president grace.
20:36He needs grace.
20:38In fact,
20:39maybe let him live
20:40in a land of grace.
20:42Graceland.
20:44Where he can
20:45live his life out
20:46asking the important
20:48questions.
20:49Does Elvis get
20:49treated better than me?
20:55He's dead, sir.
20:58When we come back,
20:59Jake Sullivan
20:59will be joining us
21:00in the studio.
21:01Don't tell you that.
21:18Welcome back to the Daily Show.
21:19My guest tonight
21:20is served as
21:21National Security Advisor
21:23to President Biden
21:24and he now teaches
21:24at the Harvard Kennedy School
21:26and is co-host
21:26of the Long Game Podcast.
21:28Please welcome
21:28to the program,
21:29Jake Sullivan, sir.
21:33How are you?
21:40Thank you for joining us.
21:44Thank you for having me.
21:45You are actually,
21:46you are in an unusual
21:48position during this.
21:49You have spoken
21:51with the Iranians
21:53in your life.
21:53You have negotiated
21:54with them
21:55on nuclear issues.
21:56You were part of that,
21:57I guess they call it
21:58JCPOA,
21:59that agreement
21:59that Iran was in
22:02before.
22:03As you put yourself
22:05in the shoes
22:05of the people now,
22:06who do you think
22:07they're negotiating with?
22:09A guy?
22:12What a guy
22:13are they talking to?
22:14So, John,
22:15you're absolutely right.
22:16I was part of the team
22:17that President Obama
22:18sent for secret negotiations
22:20with the Iranians
22:21for several months
22:22paving the way
22:23for the Iran nuclear deal.
22:24One of the guys
22:25I actually negotiated with
22:26is the guy you see
22:27on TV all the time now,
22:28their foreign minister,
22:29Abbas Arachie,
22:30one of the few Iranians
22:31that's still showing
22:32his face publicly.
22:34I actually have a good story
22:35about a guy
22:35versus the guy.
22:37During those negotiations,
22:39President Obama
22:40wanted the opportunity
22:41to speak to the
22:42then president of Iran,
22:43President Rouhani.
22:44And in our secret negotiations,
22:46I had a contact
22:46with one of the Iranian officials,
22:48and he gave me
22:49a cell phone number
22:50to give to the situation room
22:53for President Obama
22:54to be connected
22:55with President Rouhani.
22:56So I hand over
22:56the cell phone,
22:57and I'm standing there
22:58in the Oval Office
22:59while the call's being connected,
23:00and I have a thought,
23:02have I just connected
23:03the president
23:04to, like,
23:04a Canadian shock jock
23:05or some random other person,
23:07or is this actually
23:08the president of Iran?
23:09And I'm going back
23:10through my head,
23:11what's the chain of custody
23:12of this phone number?
23:14And in the end,
23:14the Iranians put out
23:15a statement saying,
23:16in fact,
23:16their president
23:16had spoken to our president,
23:18so it was all confirmed,
23:19and I was, like,
23:19all good,
23:20but it is...
23:22What if it was, like,
23:24like, a girl at a bar
23:26who's like,
23:26sure, here's my number.
23:27Can you imagine
23:29this amazing moment
23:30in the White House?
23:32Right.
23:32President of the United States
23:33speaking to the president of Iran
23:34for the first time
23:35since 1979,
23:37a possibility
23:38of a real diplomatic breakthrough,
23:39and I'm standing there
23:40just sweating bullets like,
23:41oh, my God,
23:42what have I done?
23:43Yes.
23:43Turned out okay,
23:45but, look,
23:46you know,
23:47it, to me,
23:48is a damn shame,
23:49and you said this
23:50in your opening,
23:51that it's really hard to know
23:52who to credit
23:54with their account.
23:55The Iranians say
23:55there is no communication.
23:56The president of the United States
23:57says there is.
23:58You'd want to believe
23:59the president of the United States
24:00over hardline clerics in Iran,
24:03but the reality is probably
24:05there's some kind of messages
24:06getting passed
24:07without real conversations
24:08happening,
24:09at least not yet.
24:10In the times
24:10that you had dealt
24:11with the Iranians
24:12for the JCPOA
24:13and then, again,
24:14dealing with them
24:15during the Biden administration,
24:16how close did we come
24:19to physical escalating
24:24into war,
24:25into bombing?
24:27Four years of the Biden administration,
24:29we didn't get them
24:29back into the JCPOA.
24:31We didn't do
24:32any of those things.
24:33How untrustworthy regime
24:36are they?
24:37Do sanctions work?
24:38Like,
24:39it doesn't seem like
24:40there are any good solutions.
24:44Well, first,
24:45I would just say,
24:45you know,
24:46Reagan said to the Soviets,
24:47trust but verify.
24:49Right.
24:49I always said
24:49when it came to the Iranians,
24:51don't trust and verify.
24:52And you had to do that
24:54all the way through.
24:55And when we got
24:55the Iran nuclear deal
24:57in the Obama administration,
24:58it had deep verification
25:00built into it.
25:01Inspectors on the ground
25:02over every inch
25:03of Iran's nuclear infrastructure
25:04to make sure
25:05they were complying.
25:06Did they comply with that?
25:07Yeah, because the scuttlebutt
25:09from a couple of guys
25:11is that they didn't.
25:12And that's why.
25:13And we gave them
25:14billions of dollars
25:14that they used
25:16for Hamas and Hezbollah.
25:19Is that what happened
25:20in your mind?
25:20They got sanctions relief
25:22as a result of the deal.
25:23But yes, John,
25:24they were complying
25:25with the deal.
25:26Even the Israeli intelligence.
25:27Even in the nuclear facilities,
25:28you guys had people there.
25:29They were complying
25:30with the agreement.
25:31And then in 2018,
25:32President Trump
25:33pulled out of it,
25:34said,
25:34this is the worst deal
25:36in human history.
25:36If that's true,
25:38that is quite remarkable
25:39because there's been
25:39a lot of deals
25:40in human history.
25:40Well, he also said that
25:41about trade with Canada.
25:43So you have to temper it.
25:44Exactly.
25:45So he pulls out of the deal.
25:46And you're right,
25:47in the four years
25:48of the Biden administration,
25:48we got close
25:49at various points.
25:50We negotiated
25:51to get back in,
25:52but we couldn't get back in
25:53in part because
25:54the Iranians said,
25:55wait a second,
25:56we did a deal with Obama.
25:58Trump pulled out of it.
26:00How do we know
26:00that if you come in,
26:01you're not going
26:01to pull out of it again?
26:02Then Trump comes back.
26:04And when Trump comes back,
26:05there is actually
26:06an opportunity to do a deal
26:07because he's the guy
26:08who pulled out.
26:09And just a few days
26:11before we started bombing Iran,
26:13the Iranians put a proposal
26:15on the table in Geneva
26:16that went a long way
26:18towards resolving
26:19the nuclear issue.
26:20And my understanding
26:22is that our side,
26:23our negotiators,
26:24simply didn't understand
26:25what they were being offered.
26:26And they ignored it
26:28and decided to go ahead
26:30and strike it.
26:30Our guys didn't understand?
26:32Was it in Farsi?
26:34What do you mean
26:35they didn't understand?
26:36Like, they didn't understand
26:38the Iranians negotiating code?
26:40Well, if you listen
26:41to the way that our,
26:42the Trump administration
26:44officials who were involved
26:45in this spoke about
26:46what the Iranians
26:47were proposing,
26:48there is a mismatch
26:49between that
26:50and what the mediators,
26:51the Omani mediators said
26:53was actually on the table.
26:54Right.
26:54So I think something...
26:55Well, the Trump administration
26:56said that Iran
26:57was threatening them
26:58by suggesting that they had
27:00a lot of enriched uranium.
27:02And apparently the Omani said,
27:03no, they weren't threatening you,
27:04they were just telling you
27:05what they had.
27:05Telling you what they had
27:06and also saying
27:07we're prepared to downblend
27:09that uranium,
27:10which basically means
27:10render it so that
27:11it's no longer fit for purpose
27:13to be turned into a wind.
27:14You know, you cut it
27:15with baking soda.
27:16I've been around.
27:16I know.
27:17I know what you do
27:18with the enriched uranium.
27:20So, at the end of the day...
27:23Right.
27:23And I thought the way
27:24you laid out
27:26your opening segment
27:27with the total obliteration
27:29was so powerful
27:30because you can strike
27:31Iran's nuclear program.
27:33Right.
27:33But at the end of the day,
27:35they still have a stockpile
27:36of enriched uranium.
27:37They still have centrifuges
27:39lying around various facilities
27:41we may not even know about.
27:42Right.
27:43And they still have scientists
27:44who know how to put
27:44all that together.
27:45So this gets us
27:45to the interesting point
27:47about belligerent countries
27:49and about belligerent nations.
27:51And that is the difference
27:52between capability
27:53and ambition.
27:54And I think we're seeing
27:55that now with Netanyahu.
27:56Now, by the way,
27:57when you were in office,
27:58how many times
27:59did you have to say
27:59to Netanyahu,
28:00like, don't bomb that?
28:02Like, do they listen?
28:03You know, I was so struck.
28:05This is a tangent.
28:08He seems f***ing nuts.
28:10Like, it's the kind of thing...
28:12I remember when
28:13Russia bombed Ukraine
28:14and you guys came out
28:15with very powerful statements.
28:16These are war crimes.
28:18You're against that.
28:19And then Netanyahu
28:20bombs Gaza
28:21and kills thousands
28:22and thousands of civilians.
28:23And the U.S. is like,
28:25hey, guys, be cool.
28:26Like, it's so weird to me
28:28that we don't take...
28:30Why is that?
28:32Well, there's a couple things.
28:34I mean, first,
28:35historically,
28:36the U.S. has been harder
28:37on our enemies
28:37than we've been on our friends,
28:38and that's true
28:39across the board.
28:40But secondly, John,
28:41the devastation in Gaza,
28:43the killing of civilians,
28:45the harm,
28:46the suffering,
28:46the pain...
28:47Right.
28:47...was something we tried
28:48to get up every day
28:49to end the war,
28:50and we didn't end it
28:51fast enough.
28:52But when we left office,
28:54we did have a ceasefire
28:55in place,
28:56and that's what we handed
28:56off to the troops.
28:57But we don't...
28:57There's no conditions
28:58we can say, like,
29:00you know,
29:01no bombing.
29:02Those are our bombs.
29:03We give them that...
29:04Those weapons.
29:05We can't dictate...
29:06Because I don't know
29:07the endgame.
29:08Like, right now,
29:10he's bombing Iran,
29:12but he's also still
29:13bombing in Gaza,
29:14and now he's decided
29:15to invade southern Lebanon
29:17or bomb that.
29:18Again, it gets to...
29:20You can degrade capability,
29:22but all you're doing
29:23is creating more ambition.
29:25And how is that a recipe
29:27for a lasting peace?
29:29Well, we had someone
29:30on our podcast
29:31a couple weeks ago
29:32named Danny Centrenowitz,
29:33who is the Israeli Defense Force's
29:36intelligence lead for Iran,
29:37was that for 15 years.
29:39And what he basically said was,
29:41when it comes to Iran,
29:43what Israel would like to do
29:44under this particular government
29:46is just break Iran,
29:47cause chaos.
29:47Because as far as they're concerned,
29:49a broken Iran
29:50is less of a threat to Israel.
29:52Now, the United States of America
29:54cannot think about it that way.
29:55Because a broken Iran
29:56means a broken global economy,
29:59because they continue
30:00to threaten the Straits of Hormuz.
30:01It means a potential refugee flow,
30:04like we saw after the war
30:05in Syria into Europe.
30:07It means a lot else besides.
30:08So I do believe that
30:10when it comes to this war in Iran,
30:11there is a real divergence
30:12between Israel's ultimate aims
30:15and the United States' ultimate aims.
30:16And part of the challenge we've seen
30:18is that when we ask,
30:20what is the administration doing,
30:22they can't answer that question
30:23because they don't know
30:24why they're there in the first place.
30:27They haven't been able
30:27to give us an answer
30:28as to what this is all about.
30:30But look,
30:30I don't go along the route of,
30:32because I know there's now
30:34all the theories like
30:34Israel is wagging the dog.
30:36I never bought that.
30:38I feel like they're a convenient scapegoat
30:41for the United States
30:42to continue our imperialistic adventures
30:46in that part of the world.
30:48And I want to ask you,
30:49because it really does,
30:51what strikes me as maybe,
30:54I don't want to say the fatal flaw
30:56in American foreign policy,
30:57and I want to ask you
30:58if you guys have wrestled with this,
31:00is the difference between,
31:01we talked about capability and ambition,
31:03but what about influence and control?
31:07I think America hasn't figured out
31:09the difference between
31:10to influence events and control it.
31:14And our policies in the Middle East,
31:16Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya,
31:20have shown an inability
31:21to understand the repercussions
31:23of those actions,
31:25whereas China doesn't seem
31:27to fall into that trap.
31:29What do you think of that?
31:31For us.
31:32I basically agree with you.
31:33And when President Biden...
31:34I did not see that coming.
31:36Look.
31:37When President Biden was elected,
31:39one of the charges he gave all of us was,
31:42end America's longest war in Afghanistan.
31:44Right.
31:45And do not put the United States,
31:48uniformed military men and women,
31:49back into war in the Middle East
31:51or anywhere else,
31:51if it can possibly be avoided.
31:53That was his charge.
31:54And we did end the war in Afghanistan,
31:56and it was painful
31:57and it was brutal
31:58and it was tragic.
31:59But when we left office,
32:00America was not at war
32:01for the first time in 25 years.
32:03And one of the reasons
32:04that President Biden gave
32:05for why he wanted to do that
32:07is because China was extremely happy
32:10to see the United States
32:11tied down in war in the Middle East
32:13while they went around the world
32:15with their largesse,
32:17trying to win influence, as you said.
32:19And I think we do need to turn the page
32:21on the forever wars,
32:22move forward to compete
32:24where competition matters
32:25in infrastructure and technology
32:27and economic development.
32:28But I would also say
32:29that in that post-9-11 period, John,
32:31we did a lot of good things, too.
32:33Every administration did.
32:35If you look at the question of global health
32:38or people coming out of poverty
32:40or people gaining literacy
32:42all over the world,
32:43those indicators are all up,
32:44and that is because,
32:45in no small part,
32:47because of the United States of America.
32:48So...
32:49In no way, though,
32:50over these last...
32:51If you were to look back
32:52on these last, let's say, 25 years,
32:54the reputation of the United States
32:56is not they'll come in
32:58and really help us take care of poverty.
33:00The reputation of the United States
33:02is they'll bomb the shit out of you
33:04from wherever.
33:05Maybe they'll stay for a little while.
33:07Maybe they won't.
33:08They'll tell you, like,
33:09with the Kurds,
33:10we'll arm you and we'll support you
33:11and then we'll f***ing abandon you.
33:13Or we'll tell...
33:14Like, where is our credibility
33:17on the world stage
33:18given the just unbelievable chaos
33:22that we've unleashed?
33:23I think we're generally responsible
33:25for the right populist swing in Europe.
33:28Because if we hadn't have done Libya
33:29and we hadn't have done Iraq
33:30and all those different things,
33:32would they be flooded with refugees
33:33in those moments?
33:35I think Libya certainly contributed to that.
33:37So did Syria.
33:38Right.
33:38Of course, the difference
33:39between Libya and Syria
33:40is in Libya,
33:40we did take military action.
33:42In Syria, we didn't.
33:44Right.
33:44And in both cases,
33:45you ended up with these massive...
33:46Well, we did, though, in Syria.
33:47We just didn't talk about it.
33:48We were arming...
33:49You mean providing arms.
33:50...and all those other...
33:51They were being armed.
33:53I remember running into...
33:54This is so...
33:55It was so weird.
33:56I was in Amman, Jordan.
33:57We were doing a film.
33:58And it's all Emiratis in the hotel.
34:00It was the Hyatt
34:01that had been bombed previously,
34:03although they'd really patched that up
34:04when I was standing there.
34:06My room, you could barely tell.
34:09And it's Ramadan,
34:10and it's all Emiratis,
34:12and it's...
34:12And there's this one table
34:15of, like, dudes
34:16who very clearly were, like,
34:18raised in Nebraska
34:19and had the crew cuts.
34:20So I go over to the table,
34:22and I go,
34:23Hey, man!
34:24What are you doing here?
34:25And the guy looks at me,
34:27and he goes,
34:27We're not here.
34:30And I was just like...
34:31And then I just got cold.
34:34But we...
34:35We do do that.
34:36And we do interfere
34:38in all these places.
34:39And somewhat cavalier nature.
34:42And then when it blows back on us,
34:44we're like,
34:44Well, I guess we're just gonna...
34:45We're just gonna abandon that project.
34:49But we...
34:49It seems like we haven't changed
34:52the approach.
34:53Well, what I find really interesting
34:54is that...
34:55Yeah.
34:55...in his first term,
34:56President Trump said,
34:58Basically,
34:58I don't want to get involved
35:00in these foreign...
35:00Not doing anything, yeah.
35:01President Biden comes along
35:02ends the war in Afghanistan.
35:04The United States is basically
35:05out of the business
35:06of directly U.S. forces
35:08in these countries
35:10fighting wars.
35:12President Trump runs in 2024
35:15saying,
35:16I'm gonna be the peace candidate.
35:17Yeah.
35:18He's awarded the FIFA Peace Prize
35:19a few weeks ago.
35:21Very prestigious.
35:22Very prestigious.
35:23And then turns around
35:26and says,
35:27No, no,
35:27I'm getting right back
35:28into this game.
35:28And the question is why.
35:30And I think a lot of it
35:31is that the appetite for him
35:32has grown with the eating.
35:33He did the bombing
35:35of the nuclear facility last year.
35:38Total obliteration,
35:39as he put it.
35:39Yes.
35:40He does Maduro.
35:41He doesn't feel
35:42there are a lot of consequences,
35:43to your point about consequences
35:45and blowback.
35:46He doesn't feel that,
35:47at least not immediately.
35:48There are those of us,
35:49like you,
35:49who are warning at the time,
35:51there's gonna be a bill
35:52to be paid for this down the road.
35:53He didn't see that.
35:54So then he thinks,
35:55I can go to war against Iran
35:58on a basis that could be
36:00up to and including regime change,
36:02and the Iranians
36:03aren't gonna do anything in response.
36:05Therefore,
36:05I don't even need to prepare
36:07to protect the Strait of Hormuz.
36:10And that, I think,
36:11has been the fundamental flaw here,
36:13a belief that,
36:15despite all the evidence we have
36:16from Iraq and Afghanistan,
36:18that when we get into
36:19these kinds of Middle Eastern wars,
36:21they do not work out well for us,
36:22and we need to turn the page on them.
36:24Forget about Middle Eastern wars,
36:25South American wars,
36:26Central American wars.
36:27We are a regime change machine
36:29all over the world,
36:32and we're so overly extended.
36:34When you were there,
36:35does each president have,
36:37is there like a little,
36:37like, Iran?
36:39Like, there's a library,
36:40and I'm assuming
36:42it's done alphabetically,
36:43but, uh,
36:44so Iran,
36:45and then, obviously,
36:47Iraq,
36:47probably thicker book.
36:50But,
36:51but they sit next to each other,
36:52and doesn't it say,
36:54when you pull it out,
36:55the work of 30 years of,
36:56of analysts,
36:57here's what's going to happen here,
36:58here's what's going to happen here.
36:59Don't they game this stuff out
37:02ad infinitum?
37:03Ad infinitum.
37:04Yes.
37:05So, so that's,
37:06so,
37:06and he knows that.
37:07The president must know that.
37:09Well,
37:09what was interesting
37:10is there were a number
37:11of newspaper stories
37:12in the days leading up
37:13to this war,
37:14because we could see it coming
37:15from weeks away
37:16as we built up for it.
37:17Right.
37:18Where it was military officials,
37:19including the most senior
37:20military officials
37:21in the Pentagon,
37:22basically being quoted
37:23on background saying,
37:24we have misgivings about this
37:25because of the potential response
37:27we could see from Iran.
37:28But President Trump
37:29did not listen to that.
37:31And my supposition for why
37:33is because he was on a high
37:36from the 12-day war last year
37:38and the Maduro rave,
37:39and he basically thought,
37:41I can do the,
37:42Iran's weak.
37:43I can do this.
37:43They're not going to respond.
37:44They didn't respond last year.
37:45They're not going to respond this year.
37:46And it wouldn't just be the military,
37:48but the intelligence community
37:49would have told him,
37:50you start waiving the possibility
37:52of regime change in Iran,
37:53these guys are going to rightly
37:55consider that existential,
37:56and they're going to do
37:57whatever they can to respond.
37:59You know, I said earlier
38:00that the United States
38:01doesn't know why
38:02it's in this war,
38:04and I really believe that
38:05because they've given
38:05nine different explanations,
38:07the administration.
38:08Iran knows why
38:09it's doing what it's doing.
38:10Right.
38:10It's trying to raise the cost
38:12on Donald Trump
38:13so that he ultimately
38:15stops bombing the country.
38:16Well, you see,
38:16immediately,
38:16as soon as gas prices
38:17go up to $3.79,
38:19he's like,
38:19eh, we're done.
38:21We fixed it.
38:22Everything is good again.
38:23So they have a coherent
38:24and clear strategy
38:25that they are pursuing here,
38:26and at the moment,
38:28we have the opposite.
38:30You really think
38:30he believes that he,
38:31like, he cracked the code
38:33and now he's invincible?
38:34I swear to God,
38:35I knew people,
38:36cocaine did this to them.
38:38This is the same.
38:39This is how
38:40a cocaine person acts.
38:41A cocaine person
38:42is just like,
38:43I'm the best.
38:45No, I can't be stopped.
38:48That's what we have.
38:49I couldn't put it better.
38:51Yes.
38:53Well, thank you.
38:54Well, thank you.
38:56Well, your podcast,
38:58they go over all this stuff.
38:59You've got to check out
39:00his podcast,
39:00The Long Game,
39:01with Jake Sullivan
39:02and John Feiner.
39:03Jake Sullivan,
39:03thank you for joining us.
39:04I really appreciate it.
39:06Do you think,
39:08like...
39:25Hey, that's our show
39:26for tonight.
39:27Before we go,
39:27we're going to check in
39:28with your host
39:28for the rest of the week,
39:29Mr. Josh Johnson.
39:30Josh!
39:36Welcome.
39:37What are you going
39:38to be covering this week?
39:39John,
39:40I'll be looking
39:40at the increasing number
39:41of Democrats
39:42who say they
39:43might not support
39:44Chuck Schumer's leader.
39:47But the question is,
39:48who could replace him?
39:50Who could it be?
39:58Is that...
40:00Is that...
40:03Is that, uh...
40:04Is that...
40:05Is that your...
40:05If I...
40:06If I may...
40:07And by the way,
40:09it's...
40:09It's brilliant,
40:10it's beautiful.
40:11Let me just ask you
40:12a quick question.
40:14Is that your Schumer?
40:16Yeah!
40:17I got the schlump,
40:18I got the glasses.
40:19Yeah, but...
40:19But, Josh,
40:20you got to really...
40:21It's not a schlump,
40:21it's just...
40:22You got to really
40:23just feel the hollowness
40:24of his bones.
40:26You just...
40:26You got to really feel
40:28the just...
40:29decrepit nature.
40:30Okay, so like...
40:31Like this?
40:32But it's not what...
40:33But you got to...
40:34The key is,
40:35you got to breathe
40:36like the air is being...
40:38Like the lung capacity
40:40is maybe 45%, 50%.
40:42Just like...
40:45Okay, okay.
40:48It's a little less oxygen,
40:50a little more phlegm.
40:50All right.
40:52All right.
40:54You got to stop me
40:55before this gets racist.
40:56All right?
40:58Listen.
40:59You have my back,
41:00I have yours.
41:03All right, all right.
41:05I will definitely...
41:07Give it your best.
41:11I don't think
41:12I'm getting this right.
41:12You know what?
41:13I give up.
41:14Hey, you gave up!
41:15Now that's a good Schumer.
41:17Josh Johnson, everybody!
41:19Here it is.
41:19Your moment is done.
41:20Yay!
41:21The real problem here
41:23is they have no plan
41:24for using these ICE agents.
41:27Trump says send them there,
41:28they send them there.
41:29Some idea pops into his head.
41:32And he announces it.
41:34And then the people working for him,
41:37they have to rush
41:38to try and implement
41:39what they know
41:40is an idiotic plan.
41:43Sorry.
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