00:00I want to raise the Israeli dimension. We've heard where the Americans at the moment,
00:04the challenges they will have. What about Israel? Because many believe this is Netanyahu's war.
00:09Is it? Or is it Donald Trump's war? What are Netanyahu's war objectives? What will Netanyahu
00:14see as victory? Brinkmanship by Netanyahu, Trump and Iran. What happens next? I'm joined now by
00:20a very special guest. Avi Shlaim is a historian, Oxford University, and someone who's been a critic
00:26of the way Benjamin Netanyahu has conducted politics and indeed war. Appreciate your joining
00:33us, Mr. Shlaim. Good to have you on the show. What's your sense? We've heard from an American
00:40military man saying, look, this war could turn out to be Donald Trump's possible Vietnam moment.
00:46But what's your sense? Forget the military part for a moment. I want to understand from you,
00:51where do you see Israel's interests now in the war at this stage?
00:56I think this is Netanyahu's war, not Trump's war. Netanyahu, for the last 40 years, has been calling
01:08for a joint American-Israeli strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities. He has done more than anyone
01:19else to describe Iran as an existential threat to Israel. And what has changed is that Trump
01:33is the first American president who has been stupid enough to get along with this Israeli plan. Even
01:43Israeli defense and intelligence experts in the past were always opposed to this. One former head of the Mossad
01:55described it as the silliest, the stupidest idea he had ever heard. So it's something that Netanyahu
02:05personally is dedicated to destroying the Islamic regime. That's his life's mission. And now he has
02:15managed to drag Trump into this gamble. And it's not doing very well for Trump. In fact, I would say
02:24that
02:25in this case, Trump is Netanyahu's poodle, although Trump would, of course, deny that.
02:33Trump is Netanyahu's poodle. That's a line, a headlinable quote from you, Professor Shrine. But I wanted to understand from
02:42you, while Trump's ratings are down, while there's growing pressure on Donald Trump, there's concern over ground troops being put
02:50by America. In Israel, there seems to be a lot of support for Netanyahu's
02:55Netanyahu. In a sense, you're the first guest I've had in Israel who's actually sort of been critical of the,
03:00of Netanyahu within Israel. Netanyahu seems to have got the nation to rally around a kind of nationalist outpouring, seeing
03:09Iran as the ultimate enemy that wants to destroy the Israeli state.
03:15The level of support in Israel for this war is very, very high. 92% of Jewish Israelis support this
03:28war so far. But Netanyahu and Trump vastly underestimated Iran's capacity
03:42to resist. So now Iran is hitting back. And Iran has a very sophisticated, long-term strategy. There have been,
03:53since the last Israeli attack on them, the American-Israeli attack on Iran last June, the so-called 12 Days
04:02War, the Iranians have been preparing for the next, the next assault.
04:09And they've built long-term, long-term, long-term, long-range missiles. And so far, they've only used the old
04:16missiles, which have been causing some damage. But they are prepared to use the much more sophisticated and effective long
04:27-range missiles against Israel and against American bases in the Gulf.
04:33And once the price for Israelis mounts up in casualties and in suffering, then support for the war is going
04:43to decline.
04:44But it's quite obvious that Netanyahu underestimated the Iranians. He hoped for a quick fix, for a quick, easy victory.
04:58And he was going to have early elections in June and to pose as the victor in the war on
05:06Iran.
05:07And this is what he sold to Trump. He said, Netanyahu said to Trump, the Iranian regime is very weak.
05:18It faces a lot of internal opposition. Now is the time to strike and destroy this regime. And Trump fell
05:28for it. But the war objectives, the war aims are not the same.
05:33Right. But Professor Saif, I just want to stop you on that point. Because there will be those who will
05:39say that Netanyahu's objectives ensure the destruction of the Iranian regime. Not happened yet.
05:47But a number of their top leaders have been assassinated, including Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. Slowly but surely ensure
05:55that all the militias, whether it's the Houthis, the Hezbollah, Hamas, are also destroyed.
06:00You're seeing the war being carried out in Lebanon at the moment against Hezbollah. And Netanyahu could well claim that
06:07the existential threat that Iran poses is substantially reduced. And Israel emerges as the dominant power of West Asia, even
06:15as the fault lines in the region grow, particularly with the number of Gulf states like Saudi and UAE, also
06:21angry with the way Iran has struck them.
06:23So Netanyahu could well claim that some of my objectives have been met.
06:53It's followed by hardliners. And the same is true after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader on
07:05the first day of the war. So they killed him. But his son has taken over. And his son is
07:12more hardline.
07:12In fact, despite the misperception, the stereotype in the West, Ali Khamenei was a pragmatic and moderate leader. His son
07:22is much closer to the Islamic revolutionary guards.
07:26And now what is happening as a result of the regime is that Iran is changing from a theocratic state
07:37to a state that is ruled by a military dictatorship.
07:43You know, you're therefore almost suggesting that the regime change option has not worked. If anything, it's brought in a
07:50hardline regime in Iran, that Israel, in a sense, is the has carried along Donald Trump as a poodle.
07:57But do you see Israel, for example, irrespective of what Donald Trump decides, pursuing its attempt to capture parts of
08:08southern Lebanon, to continue with its assault on Iran, that even if Donald Trump wants a negotiated settlement, Netanyahu no
08:17longer wants one?
08:21Israel cannot act independently of America. And so far, Trump has supported Netanyahu in this war, but he may change
08:33his mind because he's under pressure, not least from the American right to end this war, which is incredibly costly
08:40for everybody.
08:42But Trump's idea of Trump's aim is regime collapse, sorry, regime change. He's hoping that something would happen as in
08:55Venezuela, then one pragmatic leader from within the regime would take over and be amenable to American control.
09:03This is not going to happen. This is not going to happen. Iran is not Venezuela. But Netanyahu's aim is
09:10regime, not regime change, but regime collapse, not that a more moderate group would take over and there would be
09:18freedom and democracy in Iran.
09:21He wants complete collapse of the regime and chaos. He wants complete collapse of the regime and chaos. And he
09:27also wants to encourage the secessionist sections within Iranian society, especially the Iraqi Kurds, to invade Iran.
09:41Iran. So he hopes that there will be complete chaos, there will be no government, the military will be degraded,
09:49and Iran will become like Syria, a country that is unable to defend itself.
09:56And his goal is even greater than that. His goal is greater Israel, to make Israel the dominant power in
10:06the region, and to destroy not just the Islamic regime in Iran, but to destroy and dismantle Iran's proxies.
10:17That's the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and most importantly, Hezbollah in Lebanon.
10:25So in conclusion, do you believe that he will carry on till those objectives are met? That's his singular aim.
10:36And will he try and exploit these fault lines within West Asia, the Gulf nations versus Iran?
10:42Do you see Netanyahu playing for the long game? Or do you believe he too, like Donald Trump, is really
10:48now finding himself in a difficult situation as this war drags on?
10:53A quick answer.
10:56Both Trump and Netanyahu are in trouble because they haven't got an exit strategy.
11:06Trump doesn't have an exit strategy.
11:09And they both underestimated the limits of military power.
11:16You cannot achieve regime change from the air, and they both miscalculated very badly.
11:23And now America's Gulf allies are turning against America because it abandoned them to devastation by Iran.
11:37And Netanyahu, in the long term, is undermining Israeli security because Israeli security depends totally on American support.
11:46And because of his excesses in Gaza, the genocide, in Iran, in Lebanon, the destruction of Lebanon, because of all
11:56of these military actions, American support for Israel is declining.
12:01And therefore, Netanyahu is imperiling Israel's long-term security.
12:08Okay.
12:08Avi Shlem, you've given us a very different perspective.
12:12And you've given it to us from a historian who understands his country.
12:15Well, I appreciate you joining me here on the show tonight.
12:19Thank you very much.
12:19Thank you very much.
Comments