00:00Three months ago when we did the last of these March Posse reports, before the conflict broke out,
00:05I was pretty confident, frankly, that I thought we would cut rates this year.
00:09I don't think that's going to happen now.
00:13We've taken a very conscious and deliberate decision to hold rates today.
00:17We think that's the best thing to do today.
00:19But the range of unpredictability and uncertainty is very high.
00:25And that's over how long it will go on for all these events,
00:28what will be the peak impact and over time what will be the impact off them.
00:33And frankly, it's very hard to know.
00:34Now, we've looked at a range of scenarios.
00:39There are some scenarios where partly because we're taking out the cuts
00:43that we were sort of thought to be expected to be making this year
00:46does in its own right tighten policy.
00:49That will give us enough traction, if you like, to sort of be able to be confident
00:53we can bring inflation back to target.
00:55But there are some bad scenarios in which that is not the case.
00:59And I think we would have to say, you know, we're going to have to raise rates.
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